{"id":9167,"date":"2021-04-08T13:59:32","date_gmt":"2021-04-08T18:59:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/qa-after-misses-in-2016-and-2020-does-polling-need-to-be-fixed-again-what-our-survey-experts-say\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T23:57:05","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T03:57:05","slug":"qa-after-misses-in-2016-and-2020-does-polling-need-to-be-fixed-again-what-our-survey-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/04\/08\/qa-after-misses-in-2016-and-2020-does-polling-need-to-be-fixed-again-what-our-survey-experts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Q&amp;A: After misses in 2016 and 2020, does polling need to be fixed again? What our survey experts say"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2016 and 2020 election cycles weren\u2019t the best of times for public opinion polls. In 2016, many preelection surveys underestimated support for Donald Trump in key states. And last year, most polls overstated Joe Biden\u2019s lead over Trump in the national vote, along with several critical states. In response, many polling organizations, including the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the survey research field\u2019s major professional group, have taken close looks at how election surveys are designed, administered and analyzed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pew Research Center is no exception. Today, the Center releases <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2021\/04\/08\/confronting-2016-and-2020-polling-limitations\/\">the second of two reports<\/a> on what the 2020 election means for different aspects of its survey methodology. The first, <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2021\/03\/02\/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling\/\">released in March<\/a>, examined how the sorts of errors that led most polls to understate Trump\u2019s support might or might not affect non-election polls \u2013 especially the issue-focused surveys that are the Center\u2019s bread and butter. Today\u2019s report looks at what we\u2019ve learned about the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/u-s-survey-research\/american-trends-panel\/\">American Trends Panel<\/a> (ATP) \u2013 the Center\u2019s online survey panel of more than 10,000 randomly selected U.S. adults \u2013 how well it represents the entire U.S. population, and how it could be improved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-200-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/FT_21.04.06_PollingQA_KennedyHeadshot.jpg?w=200\" alt=\"A headshot for Courtney Kennedy, director of survey research\" class=\"wp-image-390665\" \/><figcaption>Director of Survey Research&nbsp;Courtney Kennedy<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-200-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/FT_21.04.06_PollingQA_KeeterHeadshot.jpg?w=200\" alt=\"A headshot for Scott Keeter, senior survey advisor\" class=\"wp-image-390666\" \/><figcaption>Senior Survey Advisor Scott Keeter<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We spoke with the lead authors of the two reports, Director of Survey Research <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/courtney-kennedy\/\">Courtney Kennedy<\/a> and Senior Survey Advisor <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/scott-keeter\/\">Scott Keeter<\/a>, about their findings. Their responses have been edited for clarity and concision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"scott-your-report-from-last-month-concluded-that-errors-in-election-polls-those-that-focus-on-who-s-ahead-in-the-race-and-who-s-behind-don-t-necessarily-lead-to-similar-errors-in-polls-that-try-to-measure-public-opinion-on-issues-of-the-day-courtney-your-report-today-says-the-center-is-taking-steps-to-address-underrepresentation-of-republicans-in-the-american-trends-panel-at-first-blush-these-two-reports-don-t-seem-to-exactly-track-how-do-you-reconcile-them\"><strong>Scott, your report from last month concluded that errors in election polls \u2013 those that focus on who\u2019s ahead in the race and who\u2019s behind \u2013 don\u2019t necessarily lead to similar errors in polls that try to measure public opinion on issues of the day. Courtney, your report today says the Center is taking steps to address underrepresentation of Republicans in the American Trends Panel. At first blush, these two reports don\u2019t seem to exactly track. How do you reconcile them?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kennedy:<\/strong> Both reports explore the implications of survey samples underrepresenting Republicans. But beyond that, they posed two very different questions. Scott\u2019s piece essentially asked: \u201cCan flaws like those seen in some recent preelection polls lead to <em>wrong conclusions<\/em> about public opinion on issues?\u201d The answer to that was \u201cno.\u201d This new report, by contrast, focuses on the <em>role and responsibility of pollsters<\/em>, both to diagnose whether underrepresentation is occurring and to identify ways to address it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Keeter:<\/strong> Even if a particular problem \u2013 in this case, underrepresenting Republicans \u2013 doesn\u2019t seriously threaten the validity of our measures of public opinion, we\u2019re obligated to do what we can to fix the problem. Often we can correct imbalances in the composition of a sample through the statistical process of weighting, but it\u2019s much better to solve the problem at its source \u2013 especially if we have reason to believe the problem might be getting worse over time. In any case, pollsters should always strive to have their surveys accurately represent Republican, Democratic and other viewpoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-prc-block-pullquote alignright\"><blockquote><p><strong>\u201c<\/strong>Often we can correct imbalances in the composition of a sample through the statistical process of weighting, but it\u2019s much better to solve the problem at its source \u2014 especially if we have reason to believe the problem might be getting worse over time.<strong>\u201d<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-center-doesn-t-do-horserace-type-preelection-polling-and-hasn-t-for-several-years-why-should-we-be-concerned-over-errors-in-election-polls-in-2016-and-2020\"><strong>The Center doesn\u2019t do \u201chorserace\u201d-type preelection polling and hasn\u2019t for several years. Why should we be concerned over errors in election polls in 2016 and 2020?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kennedy:<\/strong> It\u2019s true that we don\u2019t predict election outcomes, but we do ask people who they would vote for, and we ask about many topics, like immigration and climate change, that are correlated with presidential vote. So if we see an industry-wide problem in measuring vote preference, this signals the <em>possibility<\/em> of challenges in measuring related things that we do study. For instance, if recent election-polling problems stem from flawed likely-voter models, then non-election polls may be fine. But if the problem is fewer Republicans (or certain types of Republicans) participating in surveys, that could have implications for us and the field more broadly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"before-going-any-deeper-let-s-define-our-terms-how-do-issue-polling-and-election-polling-differ-both-conceptually-and-practically\"><strong>Before going any deeper, let\u2019s define our terms. How do issue polling and election polling differ, both conceptually and practically?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Keeter:<\/strong> They\u2019re certainly related, in that both rely on the same research methods to select samples and interview respondents. And issues play a role in elections, of course, so we often measure opinions about issues in polls that also measure candidate preferences and voting intentions. But they differ in two important ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, election polls typically try to estimate which candidate the respondents support <em>and<\/em> whether they\u2019ll actually turn out to vote. Issue polls usually don\u2019t need to identify who will vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, election polls are judged by their accuracy in depicting the margin between the candidates. By contrast, issue polls typically are trying to characterize the shape and direction of public opinion, and generally that can\u2019t be summed up in a single number or margin like an election poll result. Often, we want not just an expression of opinion \u2013 for example, whether a person believes the earth is warming because of human activity \u2013 but also how important they believe the issue is, what factual knowledge they have about the issue, or how the problem might be mitigated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"so-given-that-how-can-we-assess-the-accuracy-of-issue-polls-when-there-s-no-ultimate-outcome-to-measure-them-against-like-there-is-for-election-polls-put-another-way-how-can-the-average-person-tell-whether-an-issue-poll-s-findings-are-accurate-or-not\"><strong>So given that, how can we assess the accuracy of issue polls, when there\u2019s no ultimate outcome to measure them against like there is for election polls? Put another way, how can the average person tell whether an issue poll\u2019s findings are accurate or not?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kennedy:<\/strong> We know from various <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2018\/12\/06\/how-asking-about-your-sleep-smoking-or-yoga-habits-can-help-pollsters-verify-their-findings\/\">benchmarking studies<\/a>, where polls are evaluated against known figures like the U.S. smoking rate or the health care coverage rate, that rigorous polls still provide useful and accurate data. We\u2019ve conducted several studies of that nature over the years. Our polling estimates tend to come within a few percentage points of most benchmarks we can measure. And if that\u2019s the case, we can have confidence that a poll\u2019s other findings are valid too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-analysis-in-the-march-report-used-simulated-survey-results-based-on-different-assumptions-about-partisan-divides-among-voters-and-nonvoters-what-can-we-learn-from-such-a-simulation\"><strong>The analysis in the March report used simulated survey results based on different assumptions about partisan divides among voters and nonvoters. What can we learn from such a simulation?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Keeter:<\/strong> With the simulation, we were trying to find out how different our measures of opinion on issues would be if the survey sample had more Republicans and Trump voters. So, statistically, we added more Republicans and Trump voters to our samples and then looked at how our measures changed. What we found was that, in most cases, opinions on issues weren\u2019t much affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This was true for two reasons. First, people don\u2019t fall perfectly into line behind a candidate or party when expressing opinions on issues. What that means is that adding more supporters of a candidate, or more members of that candidate\u2019s party, won\u2019t move the poll\u2019s issue measures by the same amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, even though we may think the election poll errors in 2020 were large, correcting them actually requires adding relatively few Trump voters or Republicans. And that small adjustment makes even less difference in the issue questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"courtney-how-did-you-conclude-that-republicans-and-trump-voters-are-underrepresented-in-the-american-trends-panel-and-do-you-have-any-ideas-why\"><strong>Courtney, how did you conclude that Republicans and Trump voters are underrepresented in the American Trends Panel? And do you have any ideas why?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kennedy:<\/strong> Basically, we ran several different tests and \u201ctriangulated\u201d the results. Each individual test showed only a small amount of evidence for underrepresentation, but taken together, we found the evidence quite compelling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s start at the beginning of the survey process \u2013 recruiting the sample. Since 2018, the ATP has used address-based recruitment. Invitations are sent to a random, address-based sample of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service\u2019s database, which means nearly every U.S. adult has a chance of being selected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What we\u2019ve found is that, in 2020, people living in the country\u2019s most \u2013 and least \u2013 pro-Trump areas were somewhat less likely than others to join our survey panel. We also noticed a trend in our recruitments: Adults joining our panel in recent years are less Republican than those who joined in earlier years. There are several possible explanations for that, but as we say in the report, the most plausible explanation is increasing resistance among Trump supporters to taking surveys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We also looked at who has stayed active in our survey panel since 2016 and who has dropped out. We found that a higher share of 2016 Trump voters stopped taking our surveys during the subsequent four years, in comparison with other voters. It\u2019s worth noting, though, that the demographic makeup of 2016 Trump voters basically explains this difference: When we account for voters\u2019 age, race and education level, presidential vote preference doesn\u2019t help predict whether they later decided to leave the panel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We don\u2019t have any hard data that speaks to <em>why <\/em>this is happening. That said, it\u2019s clear that Republicans have relatively low levels of trust in various institutions. The polling field is intimately connected with some of those institutions, particularly the news media, which sponsors a good deal of polling. It\u2019s also the case that President Trump had some strong, often critical views of polls, and sometimes messages like that resonate with supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"if-republicans-are-underrepresented-why-can-t-you-correct-for-that-by-simply-weighting-or-reweighting-the-raw-data\"><strong>If Republicans are underrepresented, why can\u2019t you correct for that by simply weighting (or reweighting) the raw data?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kennedy:<\/strong> The short answer is that we do correct for underrepresentation with weighting. ATP surveys have always been adjusted to so that Republicans and Democrats are represented in proportion to their share of the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-prc-block-pullquote alignright\"><blockquote><p>\u201cWhile weighting can cover a lot of imperfections, it\u2019s not a perfect cure-all.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The longer answer is that while weighting can cover a lot of imperfections, it\u2019s not a perfect cure-all. For one thing, there isn\u2019t timely benchmark data for what share of Americans are Republicans or Democrats. The targets that we use to weight are certainly close, but they may not be exactly right. Also, when a pollster relies on weighting to fix something, that tends to make the poll estimates less precise, meaning a wider margin of error. A third limitation with weighting is that it relies on assumptions \u2013 the most important one being that the opinions of people who <em>don\u2019t<\/em> take the survey are just like those who <em>do<\/em> take the survey, within the groupings that the poll uses in weighting (things like age, education and gender).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We should be clear: Weighting is a best practice in polling. We don\u2019t put any stock in unweighted public opinion polls. But relying on weighting alone to fix any and all skews that a sample might have can be risky. If a pollster\u2019s weighting doesn\u2019t capture all the relevant ways that the sample differs from the general public, that\u2019s when estimates can be off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"specifically-what-changes-are-you-making-to-the-american-trends-panel-what-are-you-hoping-to-accomplish\"><strong>Specifically, what changes are you making to the American Trends Panel? What are you hoping to accomplish?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kennedy:<\/strong> We\u2019ve identified five action steps in total. Most are direct changes to our survey panel, and one is an experiment that may lead to direct changes. The direct changes are retiring several thousand demographically overrepresented panelists; weighting to new targets for the partisan balance of Americans; developing new recruitment materials; and empaneling adults who initially prefer taking surveys by mail rather than online. The experiment involves testing an offline response mode \u2013 specifically, an option for people to call into a toll-free number and take a recorded survey (what we in the field know as \u201cinbound interactive voice response\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These steps are designed to increase the representation in our surveys of people who are rather hesitant to take surveys online. Our goal is to make joining and participating in our survey panel just as appealing to rural conservatives as it is to urban progressives \u2013 or as close to that ideal as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-prc-block-pullquote alignright\"><blockquote><p>\u201cOur goal is to make joining and participating in our survey panel just as appealing to rural conservatives as it is to urban progressives \u2013 or as close to that ideal as possible.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"do-these-changes-mean-that-previous-survey-results-were-inaccurate-or-that-they-should-no-longer-be-relied-on\"><strong>Do these changes mean that previous survey results were inaccurate or that they should no longer be relied on?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Kennedy:<\/strong> No. Polling practices have always evolved over time in response to changes in society and technology, and they\u2019ll continue to evolve in the future. But that doesn\u2019t invalidate polling data from previous years. And as Scott\u2019s piece showed, the magnitude of errors that we\u2019re dealing with here is small \u2013 generally on the order of 1 percentage point or so for major findings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-american-association-for-public-opinion-research-is-working-on-a-broader-examination-of-the-performance-of-preelection-polls-in-2020-what-more-will-that-report-tell-us-and-could-its-findings-change-anything\"><strong>The American Association for Public Opinion Research is working on a broader examination of the performance of preelection polls in 2020. What more will that report tell us, and could its findings change anything?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Keeter:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aapor.org\/Publications-Media\/Press-Releases\/AAPOR-Convenes-Task-Force-to-Formally-Examine-Poll.aspx\">The AAPOR Task Force<\/a>, on which I am serving, will provide a detailed description and analysis of the performance of the polls, so that any future discussion of the issue can have a solid base of evidence. But like the 2016 Task Force, this one is also attempting to understand <em>why<\/em> polls understated Trump\u2019s support. Was the pandemic a factor? Did pollsters have trouble correctly estimating who would vote? Or was it simply the case that polls had an easier time locating and interviewing Biden supporters and Democrats? By working through the various possibilities systematically, the task force is taking something of a Sherlock Holmes approach. As the great detective said, \u201cWhen you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polling organizations have taken close looks at how election surveys are designed, administered and analyzed. 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