{"id":8453,"date":"2022-10-06T11:58:38","date_gmt":"2022-10-06T16:58:38","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2025-04-23T23:55:33","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T03:55:33","slug":"populists-in-europe-especially-those-on-the-right-have-increased-their-vote-shares-in-recent-elections","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/10\/06\/populists-in-europe-especially-those-on-the-right-have-increased-their-vote-shares-in-recent-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Populists in Europe \u2013 especially those on the right \u2013 have increased their vote shares in recent elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/FT_22.09.26_PopulistVote.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"People look over a list of legislative candidates at a polling station in Rome on Sept. 25, 2022.\" class=\"wp-image-416021\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People look over a list of legislative candidates at a polling station in Rome on Sept. 25, 2022. (Andreas Solaro\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent elections in Italy and Sweden have been resounding successes for right-wing populist parties, underscoring the growing electoral strength that such parties have displayed in Europe in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Italy, the right-wing populist Brothers of Italy party secured the highest vote share of any single party in the nation\u2019s recent election, making its leader, Giorgia Meloni, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/09\/25\/world\/europe\/italy-meloni-prime-minister.html\">likely prime minister<\/a>. In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats emerged as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/09\/14\/world\/europe\/sweden-election-result-right.html\">second-most popular party<\/a> in the country\u2019s recent election. Their strong performance is the culmination of steady growth over the last six parliamentary elections and the near doubling of their vote share since the 2014 election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Across Europe, populists \u2013 especially those on the ideological right \u2013 have been winning larger shares of the vote in recent legislative elections, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data drawn primarily from Parlgov, a clearinghouse for cross-national political information. The Center defines populists on the basis of three academic measures and classifies them as right- or left-leaning based on expert evaluations of their ideology. (For more on these definitions, see \u201cHow we did this\u201d or <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/PopulistPartyAppendix_Oct2022.pdf\">the appendix<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This Pew Research Center analysis examines the growing electoral strength of populist political parties in 11 European countries. Vote share data is drawn from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.parlgov.org\/\">Parlgov<\/a> for all elections except the most recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.val.se\/servicelankar\/otherlanguages\/englishengelska\/electionresults\/electionresults2022.4.14c1f613181ed0043d5583f.html\">Swedish<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/ng-interactive\/2022\/sep\/25\/italian-election-2022-live-official-results\">Italian<\/a> elections, where we consulted country-specific vote returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We use three measures to classify populist parties: anti-elite ratings from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chesdata.eu\/2019-chapel-hill-expert-survey\">2019 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES<\/a>), Norris\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/dataverse.harvard.edu\/dataverse\/GlobalPartySurvey\">Global Party Survey<\/a> (GPS) and <a href=\"https:\/\/popu-list.org\/\">The PopuList<\/a>. We define a party as populist when at least two of these three measures classify it as such. For more information on how we classify European populist parties, read <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/PopulistPartyAppendix_Oct2022.pdf\">the appendix<\/a>. Not all populist parties were asked about on the 2022 Global Attitudes survey, so results in the second table about favorability only include the parties that respondents were asked about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because the 2011 and 2014 CHES surveys do not include all relevant variables for our definition of populism, we focus our analysis on the 2019 CHES and 2019 GPS. As a result, the parties included in this analysis may be biased in favor of those that remain electorally significant. Similarly, The PopuList specifically looks at parties that \u201cobtained at least 2% of the vote in at least one national parliamentary election since 1998\u201d and thus parties that were a larger share of the vote prior to 1998 may not be included. Additionally, parties may exist that are considered \u201cfar-right\u201d or \u201cfar-left\u201d but not populist, according to our working definition; those are not included here. The ideology of parties may also have shifted over time; we classify parties as left, right or center on the basis of CHES experts in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All European countries are not included in this analysis because we focus only on the 11 countries in Europe that were surveyed in 2022. Surveys were all conducted with nationally representative populations and were fielded from Feb. 14 to June 3, 2022, over the phone with adults in Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Surveys were conducted face to face in Hungary and Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here are <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Populist-party-favorability-topline.pdf\">the questions used<\/a> for this report, along with responses, and <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methodology\/international-survey-research\/international-methodology\/all-survey\/all-country\/all-year\">its methodology<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Italy this year, for example, around four-in-ten voters cast their ballots for one of the three major right-wing populist parties: Brothers of Italy, Forza Italia and Lega, up from around a third who did the same in 2018 and around three-in-ten in 2013. On the other hand, Five Star, a <em>centrist<\/em> populist party, saw its vote share fall by roughly half since 2018, when it governed as part of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2018\/may\/31\/italys-populist-leaders-strike-deal-resurrect-coalition\">populist coalition<\/a> with Lega.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-640-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-11658\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/10\/06\/populists-in-europe-especially-those-on-the-right-have-increased-their-vote-shares-in-recent-elections\/ft_2022-10-06_populists_01-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"eaebeb\" data-has-transparency=\"true\" style=\"--dominant-color: #eaebeb;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_01.png?resize=480,671 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_01.png?resize=782,1094 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_01.png?resize=960,1343 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_01.png?resize=1200,1678 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_01.png?resize=1280,1790 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"895\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_01.png?w=640\" alt=\"A chart showing that populist parties have increased their vote shares in many recent European elections\" class=\"wp-image-11658 has-transparency\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Spain, the share of the vote going to populist parties roughly doubled between 2015 and 2019 \u2013 when the country\u2019s most recent legislative election took place \u2013 rising from around 13% to around 25%. This was especially the case among populists on the right, with the Vox party seeing its vote share grow from around 10% to around 15% during that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Netherlands, right-leaning populist parties garnered around 16% of the vote in 2021 \u2013 a high not seen in nearly a decade of parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In both Hungary and Poland, right-wing populist parties have surged to power, making enormous gains in the last two decades. In Hungary, President Viktor Orban\u2019s Fidesz party, which has been in power since 2010, secured a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/04\/09\/hungary-viktor-orban-wins-supermajority-for-third-consecutive-term-in-office.html\">supermajority<\/a> in this year\u2019s legislative elections \u2013 though the total share voting for populist parties in the country fell slightly as Jobbik, another right-wing populist group, <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2021\/12\/20\/hungary-opposition-election-marki-zay-fidesz-orban\/\">joined an anti-Fidesz coalition<\/a>. In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice Party (Pis) roughly quadrupled their vote share between 2001 and 2019, from around one-in-ten votes to around four-in-ten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Belgium and France, while the overall share of voters supporting populist parties has grown substantially in recent years, there have been gains for both right- and left-leaning populist parties. The right-leaning Flemish Interest party won around 12% of Belgium\u2019s vote in 2019, marking one of its most successful elections since 2007. But the left-leaning Worker\u2019s Party of Belgium has also been ascendent, winning around 9% of the vote in 2019, up from less than 1% in 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In France, the share of voters casting first-round ballots for a populist party has risen from around 10% in the 1980s to around 44% as of the 2022 election. On the right, the National Rally party \u2013 previously called National Front \u2013 has steadily increased its vote share in parliamentary elections since 2007 and, under Marine LePen\u2019s leadership, became <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/04\/24\/world\/europe\/french-election-results-macron-le-pen.html\">one of two parties<\/a> in the second round of the last two presidential elections. La France Insoumise, a populist party on the left, garnered around a quarter of the first-round parliamentary bloc in 2022 \u2013 though it did so as part of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/france\/20220619-french-left-s-coalition-gamble-pays-off-in-legislative-elections-but-unity-challenges-loom\">far-left bloc<\/a> alongside the Socialist Party, the Greens and the French Communist Party (these four parties running separately in the previous election also garnered around a quarter of the vote).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"not-all-populist-parties-are-on-the-rise\">Not all populist parties are on the rise<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Germany and Greece somewhat buck the trend. In Germany, support for the right-leaning Alternative for Germany (AfD) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/german-election-far-right-afd-loses-nationally-but-wins-in-east\/\">fell nationally<\/a> in the country\u2019s most recent election in 2021, knocking it from its claim as the largest opposition party and the third-biggest party overall, though it remains a force in eastern Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And in Greece, while populist parties still garner a large share of the vote, their popularity has been falling slightly in recent years. Left-leaning Syriza is significantly more popular there than right-leaning parties, including Greek Solution and Golden Dawn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-420-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-11664\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/10\/06\/populists-in-europe-especially-those-on-the-right-have-increased-their-vote-shares-in-recent-elections\/ft_2022-10-06_populists_02a-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"ececea\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #ececea;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_02a.png?resize=480,667 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_02a.png?resize=782,1087 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_02a.png?resize=840,1168 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"584\" width=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/ft_2022.10.06_populists_02a.png?w=420\" alt=\"A table showing that most populist parties in Europe \u2013 on the ideological right and left \u2013 do not have majority support\" class=\"wp-image-11664 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite their electoral gains in many countries, most populist political parties in Europe \u2013 on the right and left \u2013 are broadly unpopular, according to Pew Research Center surveys. In fact, outside of Hungary, where the ruling right-populist party Fidesz is seen favorably by 55% of the public, no party receives favorable ratings from a majority of the public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, being seen in a positive light is not a prerequisite for electoral success, as Italy shows. There, only around a third of Italians saw Brothers of Italy (32%), Forza Italia (30%) or Five Star (29%) favorably when the Center surveyed the country this past spring \u2013 and even fewer said the same of Lega (23%). The share of Italians with a positive view of some of these parties had even fallen since 2020. Nonetheless, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-63029909\">record low turnout<\/a> in Italy and the limited popularity of other parties, including the Democratic Party (38% in 2022, down from 42% in 2021), was enough to catapult the populist coalition to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Here are <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/Populist-party-favorability-topline.pdf\">the questions used<\/a> for this report, along with responses, <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methodology\/international-survey-research\/international-methodology\/all-survey\/all-country\/all-year\">its methodology<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/PopulistPartyAppendix_Oct2022.pdf\">an appendix<\/a> detailing how populist parties are defined, <em><em><em>and the full\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/global\/dataset\/spring-2022-survey-data\/\">dataset<\/a><\/em><\/em><\/em>.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elections in Italy and Sweden have underscored the growing electoral strength that populist parties have displayed in Europe in recent years. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":584,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_crdt_document":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2022-10-06T15:58:56Z","apple_news_api_id":"9fdccde6-f7ce-4662-bc2a-e093e91e512a","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2023-06-01T16:53:50Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQ==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/An9zN5vfORmK8KuCT6R5RKg","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"bylines":[{"key":"_12fcsmhx9","termId":954}],"acknowledgements":[],"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[]},"categories":[395,65,116,53],"bylines":[954],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[516,514],"research-teams":[525],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-8453","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","category-international-political-values","category-populism","category-world-elections-1","category-world-elections-2","bylines-laura-silver","formats-short-read","regions-countries-europe-russia","regions-countries-international","research-teams-global"],"label":"Short Read","post_parent":0,"word_count":1262,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/10\/06\/populists-in-europe-especially-those-on-the-right-have-increased-their-vote-shares-in-recent-elections\/","art_direction":{"A1":{"id":11690,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/FT_22.09.26_PopulistVote-jpg.webp","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/FT_22.09.26_PopulistVote-jpg.webp?w=564&h=317&crop=1","width":564,"height":317,"caption":"People look over a list of legislative candidates at a polling station in Rome on Sept. 25, 2022. (Andreas Solaro\/AFP via Getty Images)","chartArt":false},"A2":{"id":11690,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/FT_22.09.26_PopulistVote-jpg.webp","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/FT_22.09.26_PopulistVote-jpg.webp?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"caption":"People look over a list of legislative candidates at a polling station in Rome on Sept. 25, 2022. (Andreas Solaro\/AFP via Getty Images)","chartArt":false},"A3":{"id":11690,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/FT_22.09.26_PopulistVote-jpg.webp","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/10\/FT_22.09.26_PopulistVote-jpg.webp?w=194&h=110&crop=1","width":194,"height":110,"caption":"People look over a list of legislative candidates at a polling station in Rome on Sept. 25, 2022. 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