{"id":8393,"date":"2022-11-01T13:56:42","date_gmt":"2022-11-01T18:56:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries\/"},"modified":"2024-04-13T23:42:11","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T04:42:11","slug":"turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/11\/01\/turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries\/","title":{"rendered":"Turnout in U.S. has soared in recent elections but by some measures still trails that of many other countries"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/FT_18.05.17_InternationalVoterTurnout_feature.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"Tellers in Seoul, South Korea, count ballots from the May 2017 presidential election.\" class=\"wp-image-302681\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Tellers in Seoul, South Korea, count ballots from the May 2017 presidential election. (Jean Chung\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voter turnout in the 2020 U.S. general election soared to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/01\/28\/turnout-soared-in-2020-as-nearly-two-thirds-of-eligible-u-s-voters-cast-ballots-for-president\/\">levels not seen in decades<\/a>, fueled by the bitter campaign between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and facilitated by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/states-changed-rules-voting-amid-coronavirus-pandemic\/story?id=72309089\">pandemic-related changes<\/a>&nbsp;to state election rules. More than 158.4 million people voted in that election, according to a Pew Research Center tabulation of official state returns, amounting to 62.8% of people of voting age, using Census Bureau estimates of the 2020 voting-age population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2020 voting surge followed unusually high <a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/data\/tables\/time-series\/demo\/voting-and-registration\/p20-583.html\">turnout in the 2018 midterm elections<\/a>, when about 47.5% of the voting-age population \u2013 and 51.8% of voting-age <em>citizens<\/em> \u2013 went to the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year, some political analysts are&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.insideelections.com\/news\/article\/midterm-elections-could-set-another-turnout-record-this-year1\">predicting another heavy turnout<\/a>&nbsp;in this month\u2019s midterms. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2022\/10\/20\/midterm-voting-intentions-are-divided-economic-gloom-persists\/\">a recent Center survey<\/a>, 72% of registered voters say they\u2019re \u201cextremely\u201d or \u201cvery\u201d motivated to vote this year, and 65% say it \u201creally matters\u201d which party wins control of Congress \u2013 a level roughly on par with the run-up to the 2018 vote.<\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the 2022 midterm elections draw near, Pew Research Center decided to revisit its occasional comparisons of U.S. turnout rates with those of other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For our comparison group, we began with the 37 other countries in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/\">Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development<\/a>&nbsp;(OECD), a group of mostly highly developed, mostly democratic states. For greater diversification, we added to that group the six current candidates for OECD membership (Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia, Peru and Romania), as well as six other economically significant electoral democracies (India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, Taiwan and Uruguay), for an even 50 countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Political scientists often define turnout as votes cast divided by the estimated number of&nbsp;<em>eligible<\/em>&nbsp;voters. But eligible-voter estimates are difficult or impossible to find for many nations. So to compare turnout calculations internationally, we used two different denominators \u2013 the estimated voting-age population and the total number of registered voters, because they\u2019re readily available for most countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using both denominators, we calculated turnout rates for the most recent national election in each country as of Oct. 31, 2022, except in cases where that election was for a largely ceremonial position (such as president in a parliamentary system) or for European Parliament members, as turnout is often substantially lower in such elections. In countries that elect both a legislature and a head of state, we used the election that attracted the most voters. Voting-age turnout is based on estimates of each country\u2019s voting-age population (VAP) by the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.idea.int\/data-tools\/data\/voter-turnout\/\">International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance<\/a> (IDEA). Registered-voter turnout is derived from each country\u2019s reported registration data. (In some countries, IDEA\u2019s VAP estimates are lower than the reported number of registered voters due to methodological differences.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For most countries, we gathered vote totals from national election authorities or statistical agencies. For the U.S., which has no central elections authority, we compiled the total votes cast in the 2020 presidential election from each state\u2019s election office, and checked them against figures compiled by the&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/history.house.gov\/Institution\/Election-Statistics\/Election-Statistics\/\">Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives<\/a> (read more about <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/01\/28\/turnout-soared-in-2020-as-nearly-two-thirds-of-eligible-u-s-voters-cast-ballots-for-president\/\">the methodology<\/a>). We also drew data on reported registrations from the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/topics\/public-sector\/voting.html\">U.S. Census Bureau<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One unknown factor, though, is how the many <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/some-states-are-making-it-harder-to-vote-some-are-making-it-easier-but-its-too-soon-to-say-if-this-will-affect-voter-turnout-in-2022-176102\">state voting-law changes<\/a> since 2020 will affect turnout. While some states have&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/voting-restrictions-by-state\/\">rolled back<\/a>&nbsp;early voting, absentee or mail-in voting, and other rule changes that made voting easier in 2020 \u2013 or adopted new rules that make voting more difficult or inconvenient \u2013 other states have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brennancenter.org\/our-work\/research-reports\/voting-laws-roundup-october-2022\">expanded ballot access<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if predictions of higher-than-usual turnout come to pass, the United States likely will still trail many of its peers in the developed world in voting-age population turnout. In fact, when comparing turnout among the voting-age population in the 2020 presidential election against recent national elections in 49 other countries, the U.S. ranks 31st&nbsp;\u2013 between Colombia (62.5%) and Greece (63.5%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-11161\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/11\/01\/turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries\/ft_22-10-17_globalturnout_dot-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f5f5f4\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f5f5f4;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_dot.png?resize=480,837 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_dot.png?resize=782,1364 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_dot.png?resize=960,1674 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_dot.png?resize=1200,2093 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_dot.png?resize=1280,2232 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"1116\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_dot.png?w=640\" alt=\"A chart showing that U.S. voting-age population turnout is still behind many other countries despite its recent rise, though registered-voter turnout is remarkably higher\" class=\"wp-image-11161 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Center examined the most recent nationwide election results for 50 countries, mostly with highly developed economies and solid democratic traditions. The clear turnout champion was Uruguay: In the second, decisive round of that nation\u2019s 2019 presidential election, 94.9% of the estimated voting-age population and 90.1% of&nbsp;<em>registered&nbsp;<\/em>voters cast ballots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uruguay\u2019s voting-age turnout was followed by Turkey (89% in the 2018 presidential election) and Peru (83.6% in last year\u2019s presidential election). All five countries with the highest voting-age turnout have presidential, as opposed to parliamentary, systems of government, and four of the five have \u2013 and enforce \u2013 laws making&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.idea.int\/data-tools\/data\/voter-turnout\/compulsory-voting\">voting compulsory<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In Switzerland, by contrast, just 36.1% of the voting-age population turned out in the 2019 parliamentary elections, the lowest among the 50 countries in our analysis. But that may have less to do with voter apathy than with demographics: More than a quarter of Switzerland\u2019s permanent resident population (25.7%) are&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.swissinfo.ch\/eng\/switzerland-s-population-grows-by-0.8--due-to-immigration\/47852336\">foreign nationals<\/a>, and hence <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ch.ch\/en\/political-system\/political-rights\/right-to-vote\/#voting-rights-of-non-swiss-citizens\">ineligible to vote in Swiss elections<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When turnout is calculated as a share of&nbsp;<em>registered&nbsp;<\/em>voters, Swiss turnout rises to 45.1% \u2013 still the second-lowest among the 50 countries we examined. In Luxembourg, by comparison, changing the metric makes a dramatic difference: The tiny country\u2019s voting-age turnout was just 48.2% in its 2018 parliamentary election, but 89.7% of registered voters went to the polls. Why?&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/luxembourg.public.lu\/en\/society-and-culture\/population\/demographics.html\">Nearly half<\/a>&nbsp;of the population (47.1%) are foreigners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those examples illustrate how turnout comparisons between countries are seldom clean and often tricky. Another complicating factor, besides demographics, is how countries register their voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In many countries, the national government takes the lead in getting people\u2019s names on the voter rolls \u2013 whether by registering them automatically once they become eligible (as in, for example,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.norden.org\/en\/info-norden\/right-vote-sweden\">Sweden<\/a>&nbsp;or <a href=\"https:\/\/aceproject.org\/ero-en\/regions\/asia\/JP\/election-system-in-japan-free-choice-foundation\">Japan<\/a>) or by aggressively encouraging them to do so (as in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/electoral-register\">United Kingdom<\/a>). In such countries, there\u2019s often little difference in turnout rates among registered voters and the voting-age population as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other countries \u2013 notably the United States \u2013 it\u2019s largely up to individual voters to register themselves. And the U.S. is unusual in that voter registration is not the job of a single national agency, but of individual states, counties and cities. That means the rules can&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/changing-america\/respect\/accessibility\/3665190-these-are-the-hardest-states-to-vote-in\/\">vary considerably<\/a>&nbsp;depending on where a would-be voter lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It also means there\u2019s no single, authoritative source for how many people are registered to vote in the U.S. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/data\/tables\/time-series\/demo\/voting-and-registration\/p20-585.html\">Census Bureau<\/a>&nbsp;estimates that in 2020, 168.3 million people were registered to vote in 2020 \u2013 or at least said they were. Even so, that figure represents only about two-thirds of the total voting-age population (66.7%) and 72.7% of citizens of voting age. By comparison, 91.8% of the UK\u2019s voting-age population was registered to vote in that country\u2019s 2019 parliamentary election; the equivalent rates were 89.1% in Canada, 94.1% in New Zealand and 90.7% in Germany for those countries\u2019 most recent national elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the U.S., there\u2019s a huge gap between voting-age turnout (62.8% in 2020) and registered-voter turnout (94.1% that same year). In essence, registered voters in the U.S. are much more of a self-selected group than in other countries \u2013 already more likely to vote because, in most cases, they took the trouble to register themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-420-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-11155\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/11\/01\/turnout-in-u-s-has-soared-in-recent-elections-but-by-some-measures-still-trails-that-of-many-other-countries\/ft_22-10-17_globalturnout_map-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"efeadd\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #efeadd;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_map.png?resize=480,547 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_map.png?resize=782,892 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_map.png?resize=840,958 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"479\" width=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/11\/FT_22.10.17_GlobalTurnout_map.png?w=420\" alt=\"A map showing that in many states, registering to vote is automatic\" class=\"wp-image-11155 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some states are trying to reduce that gap. As of this past January, 19 states and the District of Columbia&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncsl.org\/research\/elections-and-campaigns\/automatic-voter-registration.aspx\">automatically register<\/a>&nbsp;people to vote (unless they opt out) when they interact with the state motor vehicles department or other designated state agencies. Three other states are on track to fully implement automatic registration in the next few years. And&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/vip.sos.nd.gov\/PortalListDetails.aspx?ptlhPKID=79&amp;ptlPKID=7\">North Dakota<\/a>&nbsp;doesn\u2019t require voter registration at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another complicating factor for cross-national turnout comparisons: According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), 27 countries (and one Swiss canton, or member state of the Swiss Confederation) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.idea.int\/data-tools\/data\/voter-turnout\/compulsory-voting\">have laws making voting compulsory<\/a>, including 12 of the 50 countries examined here. Overall, 14 of those 27 countries actively enforce their laws, with penalties including fines, inability to access certain public services, or even imprisonment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How much difference such laws make is unclear. On the one hand, four of the five countries with the highest turnout rate (whether measured as a share of the total voting-age population or of registered voters) have and enforce such laws. In the eight countries examined that enforce compulsory-voting laws, voting-age turnout averaged 78.2% in the most recent election, compared with 57.6% in the four countries that have such laws on the books but don\u2019t actively enforce them. But in the remaining 38 countries and Switzerland, which have no national compulsory-voting laws, turnout averaged 65%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although there aren\u2019t many examples, there\u2019s some indication that too many elections in too short a time can dampen voters\u2019 enthusiasm. Consider Bulgaria, which has had&nbsp;four&nbsp;parliamentary elections in the past 18 months, as the leading parties have repeatedly tried and failed to form a stable governing coalition. Turnout was 58.3% of voting-age Bulgarians in the first election (April 2021), but steadily fell to 45.8% in the most recent one (45.8% earlier this month). And with a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2022\/10\/04\/bulgaria-election-borissov-petkov\/\">splintered parliament<\/a>&nbsp;as yet unable to agree on a new government, weary Bulgarians may yet have to trudge back to the polls sooner rather than later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Israelis had to go the polls four times between April 2019 and March 2021 before lawmakers were able to agree on a governing coalition; turnout among voting-age Israelis rose from 74.6% in the first election to 77.9% in the third, before falling back to 73.7% in the March 2021 vote. But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/netanyahu-bennett-lapid-biden\/2021\/06\/14\/774f03b0-cce9-11eb-a224-bd59bd22197c_story.html\">the coalition that emerged<\/a> nearly three months after that election <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2022\/06\/20\/israel-knesset-coalition-dissolve-bennett\/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9\">fell apart barely a year later<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2022\/10\/24\/israel-netanyau-bibi-election-lapid\/\">Israel is holding yet another election<\/a> today, Nov. 1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When comparing turnout among the voting-age population in recent national elections in 50 countries, the U.S. ranks 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