{"id":8116,"date":"2023-02-09T11:34:46","date_gmt":"2023-02-09T16:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T23:55:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T03:55:18","slug":"key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/","title":{"rendered":"Key facts as India surpasses China as the world\u2019s most populous country"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/FT_23.01.18_IndiaPopulation_feature.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-422762\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">(ferrantraite via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India is poised to become the world\u2019s most populous country this year \u2013 surpassing China, which has held the distinction <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/india-will-soon-overtake-china-to-become-the-most-populous-country-in-the-world\">since at least 1950<\/a>, when the United Nations population records begin. The UN expects that India <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/graphic-detail\/2023\/01\/05\/india-will-soon-overtake-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\">will overtake China in April<\/a>, though it may have already reached this milestone since the UN estimates are projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here are key facts about India\u2019s population and its projected changes in the coming decades, based on Pew Research Center analyses of data from the UN and other sources.<\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This Pew Research Center analysis is primarily based on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/development\/desa\/pd\/content\/World-Population-Prospects-2022\">World Population Prospects 2022 report<\/a> by the United Nations. The estimates produced by the UN are based on \u201call available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality and international migration.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Population sizes over time come from India\u2019s decennial census. The census has collected detailed information on India\u2019s inhabitants, including on religion, since 1881. Data on fertility and how it is related to factors like education levels and place of residence is from <a href=\"http:\/\/rchiips.org\/nfhs\/\">India\u2019s National Family Health Survey (NFHS)<\/a>. The NFHS is a large, nationally representative household survey with more extensive information about childbearing than the census. Data on migration is primarily from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/development\/desa\/pd\/content\/international-migrant-stock\">United Nations Population Division<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because future levels of fertility and mortality are inherently uncertain, the UN uses <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/DefinitionOfProjectionScenarios\/\">probabilistic methods<\/a> to account for both the past experiences of a given country and the past experiences of other countries under similar conditions. The \u201cmedium scenario\u201d projection is the median of many thousands of simulations. The \u201clow\u201d and \u201chigh\u201d scenarios make different assumptions about fertility: In the high scenario, total fertility is 0.5 births above the total fertility in the medium scenario; in the low scenario, it is 0.5 births below the medium scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other sources of information for this analysis are available through the links included in the text.<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-10842\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/ft_2023-02-09_india-population_01-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"eeeeeb\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #eeeeeb;\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_01.png?resize=480,498 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_01.png?resize=782,812 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_01.png?resize=840,872 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_01.png\" alt=\"A chart showing that India\u2019s population has more than doubled since 1950 \" class=\"wp-image-10842 not-transparent\" width=\"420\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>India\u2019s population has grown by more than 1 billion people since 1950, the year the UN population data begins.<\/strong> The exact size of the country\u2019s population is not easily known, given that India has not conducted a <a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/india\/census-delayed-again-deadline-for-freezing-of-boundaries-extended-to-june-30-8364829\/\">census since 2011<\/a>, but it is estimated to have more than 1.4 billion people \u2013 greater than the entire population of Europe (744 million) or the Americas (1.04 billion). China, too, has more than 1.4 billion people, but while <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/12\/05\/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population\/\">China\u2019s population is declining<\/a>, India\u2019s continues to grow.<br><br>Under the UN\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/DefinitionOfProjectionScenarios\/\">medium variant<\/a>\u201d projection, a middle-of-the-road estimate, India\u2019s population will surpass 1.5 billion people by the end of this decade and will continue to slowly increase until 2064, when it will peak at 1.7 billion people. In the UN\u2019s \u201chigh variant\u201d scenario \u2013 in which the total fertility rate in India is projected to be 0.5 births per woman above that of the medium variant scenario \u2013 the country\u2019s population would surpass 2 billion people by 2068. The UN\u2019s \u201clow variant\u201d scenario \u2013 in which the total fertility rate is projected to be 0.5 births <em>below<\/em> that of the medium variant scenario \u2013 forecasts that India\u2019s population will decline beginning in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>People under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India\u2019s population. <\/strong>In fact, there are so many Indians in this age group that roughly one-in-five people <em>globally<\/em> who are under the age of 25 live in India. Looking at India\u2019s age distribution another way, the country\u2019s median age is 28. By comparison, the median age is 38 in the United States and 39 in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-10846\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/ft_2023-02-09_india-population_02-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"eee6d9\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #eee6d9;\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_02.png?resize=480,787 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_02.png?resize=620,1016 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_02.png\" alt=\"A chart showing that more than four-in-ten people in India are under 25 years old\" class=\"wp-image-10846 not-transparent\" width=\"310\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The other two most populous countries in the world, <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/07\/21\/global-population-projected-to-exceed-8-billion-in-2022-half-live-in-just-seven-countries\/\">China and the U.S.<\/a>, have rapidly aging populations \u2013 unlike India.<\/strong> Adults ages 65 and older comprise only 7% of India\u2019s population as of this year, compared with 14% in China and 18% in the U.S., according to the UN. The share of Indians who are 65 and older is likely to remain under 20% until 2063 and will not approach 30% until 2100, under the UN\u2019s medium variant projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-10847\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/ft_2023-02-09_india-population_03-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f3f2f1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f3f2f1;\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_03.png?resize=480,833 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_03.png?resize=620,1076 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_03.png\" alt=\"A chart showing in India, people under 25 are projected to outnumber those ages 65 and older at least until 2078\" class=\"wp-image-10847 not-transparent\" width=\"310\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The fertility rate in India is higher than in China and the U.S., but it has <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2021\/09\/21\/religious-composition-of-india\/#:~:text=Muslims%20still%20have%20the%20highest,followed%20by%20Hindus%20at%203.3.\">declined rapidly in recent decades<\/a>.<\/strong> Today, the average Indian woman is expected to have 2.0 children in her lifetime, a fertility rate that is higher than China\u2019s (1.2) or the United States\u2019 (1.6), but much lower than India\u2019s in 1992 (3.4) or 1950 (5.9). Every religious group in the country has seen its fertility rate fall, including the majority Hindu population and the Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist and Jain minority groups. Among Indian Muslims, for example, the total fertility rate has declined dramatically from 4.4 children per woman in 1992 to 2.4 children in 2019, the most recent year for which data is available from India\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/rchiips.org\/nfhs\/index.shtml\">National Family Health Survey<\/a> (NFHS). Muslims still have the highest fertility rate among India\u2019s major religious groups, but the gaps in childbearing among India\u2019s religious groups are generally much smaller than they used to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-10850\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/ft_2023-02-09_india-population_04-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f3f3f2\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f3f3f2;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_04.png?resize=480,216 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_04.png?resize=782,352 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_04.png?resize=960,432 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_04.png?resize=1200,540 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_04.png?resize=1280,576 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"288\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_04.png?w=640\" alt=\"A chart showing in India, fertility rates have fallen and religious gaps of fertility have shrunk\" class=\"wp-image-10850 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fertility rates vary widely by community type and state in India.<\/strong> On average, women in rural areas have 2.1 children in their lifetimes, while women in urban areas have 1.6 children, <a href=\"http:\/\/rchiips.org\/nfhs\/NFHS-5_FCTS\/India.pdf\">according to the 2019-21 NFHS<\/a>. Both numbers are lower than they were 20 years ago, when rural and urban women had an average of 3.7 and 2.7 children, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Total fertility rates also vary greatly <a href=\"http:\/\/rchiips.org\/nfhs\/NFHS-5Reports\/NFHS-5_INDIA_REPORT.pdf\">by state in India<\/a>, from as high as 2.98 in Bihar and 2.91 in Meghalaya to as low as 1.05 in Sikkim and 1.3 in Goa.<br><br>Likewise, population growth varies across states. The populations of Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh both increased by 25% or more between 2001 and 2011, when the last Indian census was conducted. By comparison, the populations of Goa and Kerala increased by less than 10% during that span, while the population in Nagaland shrank by 0.6%. These differences may be linked to uneven <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/asia\/2022\/10\/27\/indias-regional-inequality-could-be-politically-explosive\">economic opportunities<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/nov\/14\/india-faces-deepening-demographic-divide-as-it-prepares-to-overtake-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\">quality of life<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-10852\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/ft_2023-02-09_india-population_05-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f2e3cd\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f2e3cd;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_05.png?resize=480,609 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_05.png?resize=782,992 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_05.png?resize=960,1218 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_05.png?resize=1200,1523 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_05.png?resize=1280,1624 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"812\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_05.png?w=640\" alt=\"A map showing that populations grew unevenly across India between 2001 and 2011\" class=\"wp-image-10852 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>On average, Indian women in urban areas have their first child 1.5 years later than women in rural areas. <\/strong>Among Indian women ages 25 to 49 who live in urban areas, the median age at first birth is 22.3. Among similarly aged women in rural areas, it is 20.8, according to the 2019 NFHS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Women with more education and more wealth also generally have children at later ages. The median age at first birth is 24.9 among Indian women with 12 or more years of schooling, compared with 19.9 among women with no schooling. Similarly, the median age at first birth is 23.2 for Indian women in the highest wealth quintile, compared with 20.3 among women in the lowest quintile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among India\u2019s major religious groups, the median age of first birth is highest among Jains at 24.9 and lowest among Muslims at 20.8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-10858\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/ft_2023-02-09_india-population_06-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f2f2f3\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f2f2f3;\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_06.png?resize=480,601 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_06.png?resize=782,979 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_06.png?resize=840,1052 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_06.png\" alt=\"A chart showing that India\u2019s sex ratio at birth has been moving toward balance in recent years\" class=\"wp-image-10858 not-transparent\" width=\"420\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>India\u2019s artificially wide ratio of baby boys to baby girls \u2013 which arose in the 1970s from the use of <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/03\/02\/son-preference-and-abortion\/\">prenatal diagnostic technology to facilitate sex-selective abortions<\/a> \u2013 is narrowing.<\/strong> From a large imbalance of about 111 boys per 100 girls in India\u2019s 2011 census, the sex ratio at birth appears to have normalized slightly over the last decade. It narrowed to about 109 boys per 100 girls in the 2015-16 NFHS and to 108 boys per 100 girls in the 2019-21 NFHS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To put this recent decline into perspective, the average annual number of baby girls \u201cmissing\u201d in India fell from about 480,000 in 2010 to 410,000 in 2019, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/08\/23\/indias-sex-ratio-at-birth-begins-to-normalize\/\">Pew Research Center study published in 2022<\/a>. (Read more about how this \u201cmissing\u201d population share is defined and calculated in the \u201cHow did we count \u2018missing\u2019 girls?\u201d box of the report.) And while India\u2019s major religious groups once varied widely in their sex ratios at birth, today there are indications that these differences are shrinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Infant mortality in India has decreased 70% in the past three decades but remains high by regional and international standards.<\/strong> There were 89 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990, a figure that fell to 27 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2020. Since 1960, when the UN Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation began compiling this data, the rate of infant deaths in India has dropped between 0.1% and 0.5% each year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, India\u2019s infant mortality rate is higher than those of neighboring Bangladesh (24 deaths per 1,000 live births), Nepal (24), Bhutan (23) and Sri Lanka (6) \u2013 and much higher than those of its closest peers in population size, China (6) and the U.S. (5).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-10862\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/02\/09\/key-facts-as-india-surpasses-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country\/ft_2023-02-09_india-population_07-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"e9e9e1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #e9e9e1;\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_07.png?resize=480,414 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_07.png?resize=782,674 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_07.png?resize=840,724 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2023\/02\/ft_2023.02.09_india-population_07.png\" alt=\"A chart showing that out-migration typically exceeds in-migration in India\" class=\"wp-image-10862 not-transparent\" width=\"420\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Typically, more people migrate out of India each year than into it, resulting in negative net migration.<\/strong> India lost about 300,000 people due to migration in 2021, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/SM.POP.NETM?end=2021&amp;locations=IN&amp;start=1960&amp;view=chart\">UN Population Division<\/a>. The UN\u2019s medium variant projections suggest India will continue to experience net negative migration through at least 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But India\u2019s net migration has not always been negative. As recently as 2016, India gained an estimated 68,000 people due to migration (likely to be a result of an <a href=\"https:\/\/reporting.unhcr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/UNHCR%20-%20Mixed%20Movements%20in%20South-East%20Asia%20-%202016%20--%20April%202017_0.pdf\">increase in asylum-seeking Rohingya<\/a> fleeing Myanmar). India also recorded increases in net migration on several occasions in the second half of the 20th century.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India is poised to become the world\u2019s most populous country this year; its population has more than doubled since 1950.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":648,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2023-02-09T16:35:03Z","apple_news_api_id":"96b390c7-05e1-446b-824a-c4077eb8d40e","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2023-02-09T16:35:03Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/AlrOQxwXhRGuCSsQHfrjUDg","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0},"categories":[254],"bylines":[738,633,954],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[498],"research-teams":[525],"workflow-status":[],"collection":[],"class_list":["post-8116","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","category-birth-rate-fertility","bylines-christine-huang","bylines-laura-clancy","bylines-laura-silver","formats-short-read","regions-countries-india","research-teams-global"],"label":"Short 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