{"id":305259,"date":"2026-05-19T09:54:24","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T13:54:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?post_type=short-read&p=305259"},"modified":"2026-05-27T10:55:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T14:55:21","slug":"5-facts-about-africas-population-growth","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2026\/05\/19\/5-facts-about-africas-population-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"5 facts about Africa\u2019s population growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Mothers
Mothers hold their babies at Treichville University Hospital Center in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, on June 19, 2023. (Issouf Sanogo\/AFP via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While global population growth is projected to slow<\/a> over the rest of the century, Africa stands out for its relatively young and growing population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are five facts about the changing population in Africa, based on a Pew Research Center analysis of the United Nations\u2019 World Population Prospects<\/a>. The latest data is from 2023, so figures for 2024 and beyond are UN projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About this research<\/summary>\n

Ahead of Africa Day<\/a> on May 25, Pew Research Center sought to explore how Africa\u2019s population has changed since 1950 and is expected to change through 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why did we do this?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Pew Research Center conducts demographic studies, opinion surveys and other research to better understand the world\u2019s population<\/a> and how it\u2019s changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Learn more about Pew Research Center<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How did we do this?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

This analysis is based on the United Nations\u2019 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects<\/a>. Figures for 2024 onward are projections based on estimates of population size, births, deaths and international migration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because future levels of fertility, mortality and international migration are inherently uncertain, the UN uses probabilistic methods<\/a> that account for the past experiences of a given country and of other similar countries. Unless otherwise noted, this analysis uses the UN\u2019s \u201cmedium variant\u201d scenario, which is the mean across thousands of simulations. For more on how the UN makes these projections, read its methodology<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n

Africa\u2019s population has grown more than sixfold since 1950. <\/strong>That\u2019s an increase of about 1.3 billion people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This growth is projected to continue through the end of the century. Under the UN\u2019s \u201cmedium variant<\/a>\u201d projection, Africa\u2019s population is expected to reach 3.8 billion people by 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the UN\u2019s \u201chigh variant\u201d scenario \u2013 in which the total fertility rate is projected to be 0.5 births per woman above that of the medium variant scenario \u2013 it would grow more quickly, peaking at 5.2 billion in 2100. Even under the \u201clow variant\u201d scenario \u2013 in which the total fertility rate is projected to be 0.5 births\u00a0below<\/em>\u00a0that of the medium variant scenario \u2013 the region\u2019s population would total 2.7 billion in 2100, though that would peak earlier, at 2.8 billion around 2087.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, 28% of all people under 25 live in Africa, as does 19% of the overall population.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The shares of young people in Africa have increased since 1950 and are projected to be even larger in 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, Africa was home to 10% of the world\u2019s young people in 1950 (most lived in Asia, as is the case today). As of 2026, 28% of young people live in Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Asia continues to be home to the largest share of young people, Africa is expected to surpass it by 2073 under the medium variant scenario. And by 2100, 46% of all people under 25 are projected to live in Africa, compared with 39% in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By 2100, Africa is expected to have 12 of the world\u2019s 25 most populous countries.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nigeria currently has the largest population in Africa and is the sixth-most populous nation in the world. It is one of six African countries that are among the world\u2019s 25 most populous nations today, according to UN estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By 2100, Nigeria is expected to be the fourth-most populous country in the world, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo in fifth place, Ethiopia in seventh and Tanzania in ninth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the most populous countries list becomes increasingly African, it will become decreasingly European. By 2100, Russia is projected to be the only European country among the world\u2019s 25 most populous nations, and it is expected to fall from ninth place today to 17th as its population declines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India and China are projected to remain the world\u2019s most populous countries in 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Africa is the only world region where fertility remains above the replacement level.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

What is the replacement-level fertility?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The replacement-level fertility<\/a> is the total fertility rate needed to maintain a population at a constant size. Globally, this is estimated to be around 2.1 births per woman, although this varies according to mortality rates<\/a>. Replacement levels tend to be particularly high in Africa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Africa\u2019s fertility rate \u2013 about 3.9 births per woman \u2013 is substantially higher than the global replacement level of around 2.1 births per woman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is significant variation in fertility rates across the region. For example, Chad\u2019s current fertility rate is 5.8 births per woman, compared with 1.8 in Tunisia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Africa\u2019s fertility rate is projected to remain higher than those of other regions throughout the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, Africa is seeing a decline in fertility. The UN projects that its fertility rate will decline from 3.9 to 2.8 by 2050, dropping to 2.0 births per women by the end of the century. The region\u2019s fertility has already fallen substantially from its peak of 6.7 births per woman in 1972. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related<\/em><\/strong>: <\/em>5 facts about global fertility trends<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The median age in Africa is projected to rise from about 19 years today to 35 in 2100.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is because fertility rates are falling<\/a> and life expectancies are increasing<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though Africa will be home to the most young people of any world region by 2100, the share of its population under 25 will decline steadily through the end of the century. From 1950 to the present, around 60% of Africans have been in this age group. But by 2100, about 35% of Africans are projected to be younger than 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the same period, the share of African adults ages 25 to 64 is projected to rise to 51%, while those ages 65 and older are expected to make up 15% of the region\u2019s population by 2100. The older population would be more than triple its current share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This shift would bring Africa closer in line with global demographic patterns<\/a>: Worldwide, adults ages 25 to 64 have been the largest age group for years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While global population growth is projected to slow over the rest of the century, Africa stands out for its relatively young and growing 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