{"id":278660,"date":"2025-11-05T14:51:30","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T19:51:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?post_type=short-read&p=278660"},"modified":"2025-11-05T14:57:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-05T19:57:31","slug":"how-adp-employment-data-compares-with-official-bls-jobs-reports","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2025\/11\/05\/how-adp-employment-data-compares-with-official-bls-jobs-reports\/","title":{"rendered":"How ADP employment data compares with official BLS jobs reports"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The ongoing shutdown of major pieces of the federal government has meant\u00a0missed paychecks<\/a> for federal workers,\u00a0no new loans<\/a>\u00a0from the Small Business Administration,\u00a0no giant panda cam<\/a>\u00a0from the National Zoo \u2013 and\u00a0no jobs data<\/a>\u00a0from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal economic data historically has been considered the gold standard, and the BLS\u2019s monthly report on national employment and unemployment is a key resource for policymakers, economists, investors and others. It helps businesses decide whether to invest or pull back, the Federal Reserve decide to raise or lower interest rates, and much more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without BLS\u2019s reports, many economy watchers turn to other indicators to get a sense of the nation\u2019s labor markets. One alternative is the national employment report<\/a> from Automatic Data Processing Inc., or ADP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ADP is one of the nation\u2019s largest human resources technology companies. Its business includes processing payrolls for more than 500,000 U.S. employers covering some 26 million workers. That\u2019s roughly a fifth of the country\u2019s private sector workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ADP\u2019s data is on a large enough scale that, until recently, the company provided some of it to the Federal Reserve<\/a> for a more immediate sense of economic conditions. Using that data trove, ADP produces its employment report in collaboration with Stanford University\u2019s Digital Economy Lab<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How we did this<\/summary>\n

Pew Research Center conducted this analysis to explore how well Automatic Data Processing Inc.\u2019s National Employment Report could substitute for the monthly jobs report from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has been suspended since the partial government shutdown began on Oct. 1, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ADP\u2019s data series start in January 2010, so we pulled corresponding monthly data from BLS<\/a>. The BLS data categories mostly align with ADP\u2019s, but due to some methodological differences, we attempted to level the two sets as best we could:<\/p>\n\n\n\n