{"id":19204,"date":"2013-05-08T11:14:37","date_gmt":"2013-05-08T16:14:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/six-take-aways-from-the-census-bureaus-voting-report\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:44:46","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:44:46","slug":"six-take-aways-from-the-census-bureaus-voting-report","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2013\/05\/08\/six-take-aways-from-the-census-bureaus-voting-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Six take-aways from the Census Bureau\u2019s voting report"},"content":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s report from the Census Bureau<\/a> on the diversifying American electorate in 2012 confirms an historic turnout milestone first noted last December by the Pew Research Center<\/a>, but undercuts a number of other widely-reported demographic analyses of last year\u2019s presidential vote.<\/p>\n\n

Here are the six most important take-aways from Census Bureau data:<\/p>\n\n

<\/b><\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

1. For the first time ever, the black voter turnout rate in a presidential election exceeded the white voter turnout rate\u201466.2% versus 64.1%.<\/b> While the presence of Barack Obama on the ballot in 2008 and 2012 no doubt\u00a0contributed to the narrowing and reversal of what had been a longstanding black-white turnout gap, the rise in the black turnout rate pre-dates his candidacies, as the chart to the right illustrates.<\/p>\n\n

<\/b><\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

2.\u00a0Hispanics continue to punch below their weight.<\/b> Much was made right after the November election about\u00a0the clout of the Hispanic vote (by, among others, the Pew Research Center<\/a>). But the new Census Bureau data show that Hispanics\u2019 turnout rate\u2014just 48%\u2014was far below that of whites (64.1%) or blacks (66.2%).\u00a0 It also fell nearly two percentage points below the Hispanic turnout rate in 2008, which was 49.9%. Because of population growth, the number of Latinos who voted for president increased by about 1.4 million from 2008 to 2012, to a record 11.2 million, but the number of\u00a0 Latinos who were eligible but chose not to vote increased even more\u2014by 2.3 million\u2014from 9.8 million in 2008 to 12.1 million in 2012.<\/p>\n\n

<\/b><\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

3.\u00a0Youth voter turnout rates also declined<\/b> from 2008 to 2012, contrary to initial reports based on the national Election Day exit polls, which had shown the youth voter turnout rate holding steady.<\/b> According to the Census Bureau report, the turnout rate among 18-to 24-year olds fell to 41.2% in 2012 from 48.5% in 2008. (Most of the post-election analysis<\/a> of the youth vote focused on 18- to 29-year-olds and showed no change in voter turnout rates between 2008 and 2012; the Census Bureau report only provides an analysis for those ages 18 to 24 years.) The turnout rates of adults ages 65 and older rose\u2014to 71.9% in 2012 from 70.3% in 2008, according to the Census Bureau report.<\/p>\n\n

4.\u00a0<\/b>Despite the low turnout rates <\/b>for Hispanics, their high share of the under 18 population of the U.S. means that, by dint of generational replacement, they will become a more important voting bloc in future elections. Hispanics are 17% of the total U.S. population, but 24% of the under 18 population.\u00a0 Each year, an estimated 800,000 Latino youths turn 18<\/a>. The overwhelming share is U.S-born citizens, and thus automatically eligible to vote once they enter adulthood.<\/p>\n\n

5.\u00a0<\/b>Likewise,\u00a0the so-called Millennial generation<\/b> (adults, born after 1980, who are now ages 18 to 33) is certain to become a growing share of the electorate.\u00a0 Today they are 25.5% of the age-eligible electorate. By 2020, they will be 36.5%. If history is a guide, this cohort of voters will increase its voter participation levels as it\u00a0grows older.<\/p>\n\n

6. Non-whites were 26.3% of all voters<\/b> in the 2012 election, a record high share. But they compose an even higher share of all U.S. adults age 18 and older\u201433.9%. By 2020 this share will rise to 37.2%, and by 2060 it will be 54.8%, according to Census Bureau projections. If the racial voting patterns from the 2012 election persist, the electoral playing field for future\u00a0Republican presidential candidates will become increasingly difficult. (GOP candidate Mitt Romney received just 17% of the non-white vote.)<\/p>\n\n

Lastly, a methodological note:<\/p>\n\n

<\/b><\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

The gap between the voter turnout reported by the Census Bureau and the actual national vote tallied by election officials widened in 2012.<\/b> According to the Census Bureau\u2019s 2012 Current Population Survey November Supplement on Voting and Registration, an estimated 133 million U.S. citizens voted in 2012. That estimate is higher\u2014by 4 million votes\u2014than the national tally of 129 million votes cast for president<\/a>. The gap in reported votes and the actual vote tally is the widest since 2000 (when the gap was 5.4 million votes) and marks the first widening of the gap since 1984. The Census Bureau\u2019s November supplement to the CPS is the most comprehensive data source available for examining the demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections, but it relies on a post-election self-reporting by survey respondents.\u00a0Because of what is sometimes described as \u201csocial desirability bias\u201d some survey respondents may say they voted when in fact they did not.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s report from the Census Bureau on the diversifying American electorate in 2012 confirms an historic turnout milestone first noted last December by the Pew Research Center, but undercuts a number of other widely-reported demographic analyses of last year\u2019s presidential vote. Here are the six most important take-aways from Census Bureau data: 1. For the 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