{"id":191199,"date":"2024-10-30T11:55:05","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T15:55:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?post_type=short-read&#038;p=191199"},"modified":"2024-11-04T09:20:32","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T14:20:32","slug":"decade-after-decade-more-than-three-quarters-of-us-house-districts-have-consistently-been-won-by-the-party-that-holds-them","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2024\/10\/30\/decade-after-decade-more-than-three-quarters-of-us-house-districts-have-consistently-been-won-by-the-party-that-holds-them\/","title":{"rendered":"For decades, most U.S. House seats have mainly been won by the incumbent party"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><img data-dominant-color=\"5d5366\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #5d5366;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?resize=480,270 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?resize=782,440 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?resize=1200,675 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?resize=1280,720 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"360\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"People react to 2018 midterm election results during a watch party in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 6, 2018. (Zach Gibson\/Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-191206 not-transparent\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">People react to 2018 midterm election results during a watch party in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 6, 2018. (Zach Gibson\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Republican Party currently has control of the U.S. House of Representatives, but it has an exceptionally narrow majority \u2013 220 seats versus 212 for the Democrats, with three more seats vacant. That means Democrats need a net gain of just six seats in November\u2019s elections to take control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That might not seem like a tall order, but in any given election, <strong>the vast majority of House districts are won by the party that already holds them.<\/strong> In 2020, for instance, 93% of districts were retained by the same party; only 18 of 435 districts (4%) flipped. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pew Research Center conducted this analysis to explore changes over time in the party representation of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The analysis was challenging in part because House district lines shift over time \u2013 most notably after each decennial census. Districts need to be redrawn after every census to account for population shifts; sometimes they\u2019re also renumbered. That means any given district today may look nothing like it did just a few years ago, even if it\u2019s designated the same or even represented by the same person.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, before a series of <a href=\"https:\/\/constitutioncenter.org\/blog\/on-this-day-supreme-court-reviews-redistricting\">landmark Supreme Court rulings on redistricting<\/a> in the 1960s, many states were rather erratic in how \u2013 or whether \u2013 they redrew their congressional maps. For example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Arkansas kept the same district lines from 1902 to 1950.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After Louisiana added an eighth district in 1912, its map didn\u2019t change again until 1966.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When Missouri legislators couldn\u2019t agree on a new map in time for the 1932 election, they made all 13 congressional seats at-large and deferred drawing new districts until after the next election.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The court\u2019s \u201cone person, one vote\u201d rulings eventually forced all states to redraw their maps at least once a decade. But state maps are frequently challenged for infringing on the rights of particular racial and ethnic groups, and courts can order them to be redrawn mid-decade. (States can also redraw maps mid-decade without a court ruling, as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/06\/28\/washington\/28cnd-scotus.html\">Texas controversially did in 2003<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We first sought to determine which states had consistent and comparable district maps for the entire period between decennial censuses. Because the U.S. Census Bureau reports its official population figures toward the end of the census year, each of our study periods starts with the general election in a year ending in \u201c2\u201d and ends <em>before<\/em> the general election in the next year ending in \u201c2\u201d to capture any late-cycle special elections held under the old maps. (Sometimes, special elections to fill vacancies in the final Congress of one study period were held concurrently, or even after, the general election for the first Congress of the next study period. In those instances, results were allocated to the outgoing Congress. In a few cases where special elections weren\u2019t decided until after the November general election, those results were also allocated to the outgoing Congress.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We began our analysis with the 1922-1932 period because that was the first complete one after the House reached its present size of 435 seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To track changes in district lines, we consulted several sources, notably <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/The_Historical_Atlas_of_United_States_Congressional_Districts:_1789%E2%80%931983\">The Historical Atlas of United States Congressional Districts, 1789-1983<\/a>; a <a href=\"https:\/\/cdmaps.polisci.ucla.edu\/\">collection of digitized district maps<\/a> produced by UCLA political scientists that goes up to 2012; and media reports on state redistricting actions up to 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If a state made any changes to its district maps within a given decade, all its districts were dropped from the analysis for that time period. In addition, the entire 1962-1972 period was excluded because 41 states, prompted by the 1960s Supreme Court rulings, redrew their House districts at least once during that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the remaining districts, we looked at the results of every House election \u2013 regular and special. If the same party won every election in a given 10-year span, we defined the district as \u201cconsistent\u201d Republican or Democratic. If a party won all but one election in the period, we defined the district as \u201cdominant\u201d Republican or Democratic. All remaining analyzed districts were considered \u201cmixed party.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our primary source for regular election results was the <a href=\"https:\/\/history.house.gov\/Institution\/Election-Statistics\/Election-Statistics\/\">Election Statistics<\/a> webpage maintained by the House Clerk\u2019s office. For special-election winners, we consulted the <a href=\"https:\/\/bioguide.congress.gov\/search\/bio\/C001055\">Biographical Directory of the United States Congress<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Has it always been this way? Or was there a time when House districts weren\u2019t firmly in the grip of one party or the other, election cycle after election cycle?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To find out, we examined the outcome of every House election \u2013 regularly scheduled ones as well as special elections to fill vacancies \u2013 from 1922 to 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">House districts are redrawn following each decennial census to reflect population changes, so districts aren\u2019t directly comparable from one census period to another. With that in mind, we analyzed election results in 10-year segments. Each segment includes the five regular House elections held between census years, along with any special elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We found that in every 10-year segment, after adjusting for redistricting changes, most districts were consistently won by either Republicans or Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=191203\"><img data-dominant-color=\"e5e0df\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_2.png?resize=480,639 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_2.png?resize=782,1041 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_2.png?resize=840,1118 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"852\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_2.png?w=640\" alt=\"A bar chart showing that most of the time, Democrats or Republicans win all the elections for a given House seat.\" class=\"wp-image-191203 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #e5e0df; width:420px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our analysis begins with the decade following the 1920 census. Between the 1922 general election (for the 68th Congress) and a series of special elections in 1932 for the outgoing 72nd Congress:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Republicans won every election in 161 House districts (41% of the districts we analyzed in this period) and all but one race in 35 more districts (9%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Democrats ran the table in 141 districts (36%) and won all but one election in another 23 (6%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Only in 30 districts nationwide did two different parties win at least two elections each.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All told, 302 of the 390 districts we analyzed in that period (77%) were <em>consistently<\/em> represented by either Republicans or Democrats, and another 58 (15%) were <em>predominantly<\/em> represented by either Republicans or Democrats. Only 8% were what we\u2019re calling \u201cmixed-party\u201d districts, where no single party predominated. (We excluded 45 other districts in five states because those states redrew their congressional maps mid-decade.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=191204\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f3f3f1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_1.png?resize=480,570 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_1.png?resize=782,929 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_1.png?resize=840,998 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"760\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_1.png?w=640\" alt=\"A line chart showing that mixed-party districts for the U.S. House of Representatives have long been uncommon.\" class=\"wp-image-191204 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f3f3f1; width:420px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The high-water mark for mixed-party House districts was the decade following the 1930 census. Between 1932 and 1942, there were 71 mixed-party districts, accounting for 21% of the 342 districts we analyzed. That was the only time across the decades we studied when more than a fifth of analyzed districts were mixed party. (We excluded 93 districts because of mid-decade redistricting.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other hand, there were only 22 mixed-party House districts, or 8%, in the decade following the 1980 census. Another 220 districts were consistently represented by either Republicans or Democrats throughout that decade. (We excluded 166 districts \u2013 an unusually large number \u2013 because of mid-decade redistricting.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most recent complete period we analyzed was the decade after the 2010 census, covering all regular and special House elections from November 2012 to just before November 2022. Excluding 69 districts due to mid-cycle redistricting, the two major parties were almost evenly divided:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Democrats won every election in 160 districts and every election but one in seven more.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Republicans won every election in 151 districts and every election but one in another 20.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Just 28 districts were mixed party.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year is expected to bring more of the same. Only 40 or so of the 435 House seats are competitive, depending on which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cookpolitical.com\/ratings\/house-race-ratings\">political forecast<\/a> you consult. Most of the rest are considered firmly Republican (about 190) or Democratic (around 175); each party is also considered \u201clikely\u201d but not certain to win 10 to 20 additional seats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 2020, 93% of districts were retained by the same party; only 18 of 435 districts (4%) flipped.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":658,"featured_media":191206,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_crdt_document":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2024-10-30T15:55:27Z","apple_news_api_id":"3ecaf136-9017-47d3-af01-b69d5389540e","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2024-11-04T14:20:42Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/APsrxNpAXR9OvAbadU4lUDg","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"bylines":[{"key":"_90ircu063","termId":842}],"acknowledgements":[],"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[]},"categories":[79,39,48],"bylines":[842],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-191199","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-congress","category-us-elections-voters","category-voters-voting","bylines-drew-desilver","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states"],"label":"Short Read","post_parent":0,"word_count":1198,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2024\/10\/30\/decade-after-decade-more-than-three-quarters-of-us-house-districts-have-consistently-been-won-by-the-party-that-holds-them\/","art_direction":{"A2":{"id":191206,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"caption":"People react to 2018 midterm election results during a watch party in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 6, 2018. 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(Zach Gibson\/Getty Images)","chartArt":false},"A4":{"id":191206,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"caption":"People react to 2018 midterm election results during a watch party in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 6, 2018. (Zach Gibson\/Getty Images)","chartArt":false},"A1":{"id":191206,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?w=564&h=317&crop=1","width":564,"height":317,"caption":"People react to 2018 midterm election results during a watch party in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 6, 2018. (Zach Gibson\/Getty Images)","chartArt":false},"social":{"id":191206,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/10\/SR_24.10.30_competitive-races_feature.jpg?w=1200&h=628&crop=1","width":1200,"height":628,"caption":"People react to 2018 midterm election results during a watch party in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 6, 2018. (Zach Gibson\/Getty Images)","chartArt":false}},"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[],"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"US House districts rarely flip in any given election","description":"In 2020, 93% of districts were retained by the same party; only 18 of 435 districts (4%) flipped.  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