{"id":15087,"date":"2013-09-27T10:21:33","date_gmt":"2013-09-27T15:21:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/lessons-from-the-last-government-shutdown\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:27:49","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:27:49","slug":"lessons-from-the-last-government-shutdown","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2013\/09\/27\/lessons-from-the-last-government-shutdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons from the last government shutdown"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"
President Clinton meets with Republican congressional leaders at the White House Friday Dec. 29, 1995 to discuss the federal budget impasse. From left to right are Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas. Credit: AP Photo\/Wilfredo Lee<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n\n

With less than a week to go before a possible government shutdown, long-time political observers are tapping their memories for lessons from the last time the government shut down<\/a>, in the fall of 1995 and winter of 1996.<\/p>\n\n

One lesson that people should not<\/em> take away is that the 1995-96 shutdowns themselves were a political disaster for Republicans. Certainly, the government shutdown didn\u2019t help the GOP\u2019s image, but the party had lost support among the public well before the initial shutdown in November 1995. The government shut down twice between then and January 1996 (Nov. 14-19; Dec. 16-Jan. 6).<\/p>\n\n

\"FT_gop-proposals-95\"<\/figure>\n\n

First, some political history. A year earlier, the GOP scored a sweeping victory in the 1994 midterm<\/a>, winning both the House and Senate for the first time in 42 years. The public set a high bar \u2013 perhaps too high, in retrospect \u2013 for GOP achievements. A Pew Research Center report in December 1994 characterized post-election reactions this way: \u201cPublic Expects GOP Miracles.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n

No miracles were forthcoming. The GOP\u2019s agenda quickly got bogged down in Congress and some of its signature proposals \u2013such as limiting the growth of Medicare spending \u2013 proved unpopular.<\/p>\n\n

Public views of Republican leaders\u2019 policies, which were nearly two-to-one positive in the month after the election (52% approve, 28% disapprove), turned negative just eight months later. In August 1995, 38% approved GOP leaders\u2019 proposals while 45% disapproved. Notably, these opinions did not change much over the following year \u2013 including through the period of the two government shutdowns.<\/p>\n\n

\"FT_shutdown-leaders-views\"<\/figure>\n\n

House Speaker Newt Gingrich\u2019s favorable ratings also declined in the months leading up to the shutdown. Favorability ratings of Gingrich went from mixed in January 1995 to heavily negative by early November (57% had an unfavorable view of Gingrich, 25% favorable).<\/p>\n\n

By contrast, Bill Clinton\u2019s job approval rating moved in the opposite direction over roughly the same period. In December 1994, a month after the Democrats\u2019 shellacking in the midterm, Clinton\u2019s approval rating was in negative territory; just 41% approved of his job performance and 47% disapproved. In October 1995, shortly before the shutdown, Clinton had a positive rating (48% approve, 42% disapprove).<\/p>\n\n

Clinton\u2019s job rating continued to improve, reaching 55% by March 1996. Gingrich\u2019s favorability remained largely unchanged (25% favorable, 58% unfavorable).<\/p>\n\n

A year after the first government shutdown, Clinton went on to soundly defeat Sen. Bob Dole to win a second term in the White House. A strong economy was a bigger factor in Clinton\u2019s victory than any other issue, according to national exit polls. Despite Clinton\u2019s victory, Republicans maintained their majority in the House for the first time since the Great Depression and added two seats to their majority in the Senate.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 1995-1996 government shutdowns didn\u2019t help the GOP\u2019s image, but the party had lost support among the public well before they happened.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":null,"sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[]},"categories":[],"bylines":[957,989],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[520],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-15087","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","bylines-alec-tyson","bylines-carroll-doherty","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-politics"],"label":"Short 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