{"id":13769,"date":"2014-11-04T07:00:01","date_gmt":"2014-11-04T12:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/6-facts-about-the-electorate-on-midterm-day\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:20:26","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:20:26","slug":"6-facts-about-the-electorate-on-midterm-day","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2014\/11\/04\/6-facts-about-the-electorate-on-midterm-day\/","title":{"rendered":"6 facts about the electorate on midterm day"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All through this year, we have been tracking the mood and opinions of the general public and those who have registered or are likely to vote, and that has added up to this snapshot of the 2014 electorate, which we&#8217;ve boiled down to six facts.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/10\/23\/as-midterms-near-gop-leads-on-key-issues-democrats-have-a-more-positive-image\/#views-of-nations-economy\"><img data-dominant-color=\"e8e7de\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #e8e7de;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"284\" height=\"350\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2014\/11\/FT_Economy_Election.png?resize=284,350 284w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" class=\"wp-image-25451 not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2014\/11\/FT_Economy_Election.png\" alt=\"Despite improvement in the economy, few Americans give it high marks or expect it to improve much in the next year.\" ><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\">Even though the unemployment rate has fallen sharply since the 2010 midterm elections and a host of other economic measures have improved significantly, it has not done much to brighten\u00a0the public&#8217;s mood on\u00a0what it\u00a0considers to be\u00a0the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/09\/12\/wide-partisan-differences-over-the-issues-that-matter-in-2014\/#issue-priorities-for-voters\">most important voting issue<\/a>. While the economy gets better\u00a0marks than in the last two elections, that isn&#8217;t saying much. <strong>Just 21% of Americans rated the economy as excellent or good\u00a0in a <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/10\/23\/as-midterms-near-gop-leads-on-key-issues-democrats-have-a-more-positive-image\/#views-of-nations-economy\">mid-October survey<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0(compared with\u00a013% in September 2012 and 8% in October\u00a02010). And, in this election cycle, <strong>fewer Americans expect continued improvement with just 27% believing economic conditions will be better a year from now<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/10\/23\/as-midterms-near-gop-leads-on-key-issues-democrats-have-a-more-positive-image\/#factors-in-the-congressional-vote-obama-partisan-control-of-congress\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f1f0ed\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f1f0ed;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"309\" height=\"432\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2014\/11\/FT_Obama_Vote.png?resize=309,432 309w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" class=\"wp-image-25454 not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2014\/11\/FT_Obama_Vote.png\" alt=\"More voters see midterm ballot as a vote against Obama than for him.\" ><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\">President Obama is a negative factor for many voters. In our <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/10\/23\/as-midterms-near-gop-leads-on-key-issues-democrats-have-a-more-positive-image\/#factors-in-the-congressional-vote-obama-partisan-control-of-congress\">survey last month<\/a>, <strong>32% of registered voters said they thought of their vote for Congress as a vote against Obama, while 20% saw it as a vote for Obama<\/strong>. The rest said Obama would not be a factor in their decision. Obama has even lost ground among fellow Democrats. About four-in-ten (38%) voters\u00a0who plan to support the\u00a0Democratic\u00a0candidate in the congressional elections said they considered their vote a vote &#8220;for&#8221; Obama, down from 53% in the 2010 midterms.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><!--more--><strong>More voters now see the Republicans as the party that could do a better job on key issues, but they rate the Democrats higher\u00a0when it comes to the party&#8217;s image<\/strong> as reflected in its qualities and traits, <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/10\/23\/as-midterms-near-gop-leads-on-key-issues-democrats-have-a-more-positive-image\/#anti-incumbent-sentiment-remains-at-record-levels\">according to our survey<\/a>. Republicans have a 17 point advantage over Democrats\u00a0as the party more capable of dealing with terrorist threats at home and a 15 point edge when it comes to dealing with the budget deficit. They had a more modest lead over the Democrats on handling the economy (6 points). When it comes to qualities and traits, the Democrats have a 22 point advantage over the GOP when it comes to being seen as the party more willing to work with the opposition, and a 21 point lead in being viewed as the party more concerned &#8220;with the needs of people like me.&#8221;\n<script src=\"http:\/\/static.parsely.com\/code\/slim_v06.js\" type=\"mce-no\/type\"><\/script><\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/10\/23\/as-midterms-near-gop-leads-on-key-issues-democrats-have-a-more-positive-image\/#anti-incumbent-sentiment-remains-at-record-levels\"><img data-dominant-color=\"ece7d8\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #ece7d8;\" decoding=\"async\" sizes=\"(max-width: 309px) 100vw, 309px\" class=\"wp-image-25468 not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.pewresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/12\/2014\/11\/Anti-Incumbent-Sentiment-at-a-Peak.jpg\" alt=\"Anti-incumbent sentiment among voters continues to remain at a peak.\" ><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\">Anti-incumbent sentiment among voters has been growing steadily over the last decade and, this year, it matches or exceeds the last several midterms. <strong>About two-thirds (68%) of registered voters <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/10\/23\/as-midterms-near-gop-leads-on-key-issues-democrats-have-a-more-positive-image\/#anti-incumbent-sentiment-remains-at-record-levels\">said last month<\/a> that they don&#8217;t want to see most House members re-elected and about a third (35%) don&#8217;t want to see their own representative returned to office<\/strong>. In the 2006 and 2010 midterms, about half of voters said they wanted to see most members of Congress defeated.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\">Anti-incumbent or not, <strong>most voters won&#8217;t have a chance to cast a ballot in a competitive race when it comes to the House\u00a0<\/strong>if history is any guide. Just\u00a029 House candidates in 2012 won by less than 5 percentage points over their closest rival; another 34 won by at least five but fewer than 10 percentage points. Still, that was only 63 races out of 435 House districts, representing around\u00a015% of eligible voters. A <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2014\/11\/03\/for-most-voters-congressional-elections-offer-little-drama\/\">Pew Research tabulation<\/a> of previous elections found that the number of close races \u2014 those decided by fewer than 5 percentage points \u2014 ranged from a low of 25 in 2008 up to 38 in the Tea Party year of 2010, when Republicans regained control of the House.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2014\/10\/23\/who-will-turn-out-to-vote-in-november-a-look-at-likely-voters-through-the-lens-of-the-political-typology\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"ebebe8\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #ebebe8;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"269\" height=\"348\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2014\/11\/FT_Likely_voters.png?resize=269,348 269w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" class=\"wp-image-25464 not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2014\/11\/FT_Likely_voters.png\" alt=\"The most likely voters in this year's midterms are the most ideological.\" ><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"is-style-has-big-number wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The most likely voters\u00a0are those who are the most ideological, are highly\u00a0politically engaged and overwhelmingly partisan<\/strong>. We looked at likely voters through the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/06\/26\/the-political-typology-beyond-red-vs-blue\/\">lens of our Political Typology<\/a>\u00a0and <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2014\/10\/23\/who-will-turn-out-to-vote-in-november-a-look-at-likely-voters-through-the-lens-of-the-political-typology\/\">our analysis found<\/a>\u00a0that the three of eight typology groups most likely to vote were Steadfast Conservatives (staunch critics of government), Business Conservatives (prefer limited government but more moderate on social issues) and Solid\u00a0Liberals (solidly Democratic).<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Six facts about the 2014 electorate culled from Pew Research surveys and analyses during this midterm year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":null,"sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[]},"categories":[],"bylines":[859],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[520],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-13769","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","bylines-bruce-drake","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-politics"],"label":"Short 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