{"id":13486,"date":"2015-06-04T10:17:57","date_gmt":"2015-06-04T15:17:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/will-california-ever-become-a-majority-latino-state-maybe-not\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:19:51","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:19:51","slug":"will-california-ever-become-a-majority-latino-state-maybe-not","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2015\/06\/04\/will-california-ever-become-a-majority-latino-state-maybe-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Will California ever become a majority-Latino state? Maybe not"},"content":{"rendered":"

California reached a milestone<\/a> in 2014 when it became only the third U.S. state where white non-Hispanics were outnumbered by another racial or ethnic group. At about 15 million<\/a>, Hispanics for the first time<\/a> constituted California\u2019s largest racial or ethnic group, according to the state\u2019s Department of Finance.<\/p>\n\n

\"No<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

However, it could be a half-century (or longer) before Hispanics become a full majority in California, if that demographic milestone is reached at all, according to scaled-back state population projections<\/a> published by the state Finance Department.<\/p>\n\n

Under projections published in 2007, the state\u2019s Hispanic population was expected to reach 31 million in 2050, or 52.1% of all Californians. But according to updated projections released late last year, Hispanics are now expected to number 23.7 million in 2050, or 47.6% of all Californians. That pushes the prospect of a Hispanic demographic majority further into the future \u2013 perhaps to sometime after 2060.<\/p>\n\n

The 2014 population projections also included an estimate for 2060 that indicates that Hispanics may not reach a majority by that year, when they are expected to number 25.5 million, or 49.3% of California\u2019s population.<\/p>\n\n

This change in the projected growth of the Hispanic population is driven by a number of factors. California has long been a top destination for immigrants from Latin America, but immigration from Latin America to the U.S. began to slow in 2008<\/a> due in part to the Great Recession. As a result, national Hispanic population growth today is driven more by U.S. births<\/a> than by the arrival of new immigrants. At the same time, birth rates are falling<\/a> among Hispanic women.<\/p>\n\n

\"California's<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

California\u2019s total population projections have also been reduced. In 2007, the state\u2019s population had been projected to reach 59.5 million in 2050. But now, the latest projections say the population will reach 49.8 million in 2050, about 10 million less than the earlier projection.<\/p>\n\n

This lower projected population shows how California\u2019s demographic future will continue to be tied to Latinos, a group that for decades has played a key role in the state\u2019s demographics. Since 1980, Hispanic population growth has accounted for about two-thirds of the state\u2019s overall population growth, helping California gain eight new congressional districts over the period. (However, seven of those seats were gained before 1990.)<\/p>\n\n

Today, California is the nation\u2019s most populous state, with more than 38 million<\/a> residents. It has the nation\u2019s largest Hispanic population by far, with about 15 million Hispanic residents, accounting for 38% of the state\u2019s population. (Texas is a distant second, with 10 million Hispanics, and Florida is an even more distant third with just 5 million Hispanics.)<\/p>\n\n

California\u2019s lowered Hispanic population projections mirror national projections. The U.S. Census Bureau has reduced Latino population projections<\/a> by nearly 30 million by 2050 compared with those published in 2008. The bureau has also lowered the overall U.S. population projection for 2050 by about 40 million compared with 2008.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It could be a half-century (or longer) before Hispanics become a majority there, according to scaled-back state population projections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":null,"sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[]},"categories":[254,152],"bylines":[629,929],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[529],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-13486","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","category-birth-rate-fertility","category-hispanic-latino-demographics","bylines-jens-manuel-krogstad","bylines-mark-hugo-lopez","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-global-migration-and-demography"],"label":"Short Read","post_parent":0,"word_count":463,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2015\/06\/04\/will-california-ever-become-a-majority-latino-state-maybe-not\/","art_direction":{"A1":{"id":24889,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png?w=200&h=317&crop=1","width":200,"height":317,"chartArt":false},"A2":{"id":24889,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png?w=200&h=151&crop=1","width":200,"height":151,"chartArt":false},"A3":{"id":24889,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png?w=194&h=110&crop=1","width":194,"height":110,"chartArt":false},"A4":{"id":24889,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png?w=200&h=151&crop=1","width":200,"height":151,"chartArt":false},"XL":{"id":24889,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png?w=200&h=405&crop=1","width":200,"height":405,"chartArt":false},"social":{"id":24889,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2015\/06\/FT_15.06.03_califProjectionsShare.png?w=200&h=406&crop=1","width":200,"height":406,"chartArt":false}},"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[],"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"Will California ever become a majority-Latino state? 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