{"id":13470,"date":"2015-06-08T13:20:12","date_gmt":"2015-06-08T18:20:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/scientists-more-worried-than-public-about-worlds-growing-population\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:19:46","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:19:46","slug":"scientists-more-worried-than-public-about-worlds-growing-population","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2015\/06\/08\/scientists-more-worried-than-public-about-worlds-growing-population\/","title":{"rendered":"Scientists more worried than public about world\u2019s growing population"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Total<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Over the course of history, many scientists and activists have raised alarm about population numbers that only increase every year.<\/p>\n\n

When the English scholar Thomas Malthus published An Essay on the Principle of Population<\/em><\/a> in 1798, the number of people around the world was nearing 1 billion for the first time. \u201cThe power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man,\u201d he wrote then. <\/p>\n\n

\"World<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Skip ahead to 1968, when the world\u2019s population had risen\u00a0to around 3.5 billion and the annual rate of growth peaked at 2.1%: American biologist Paul Ehrlich revisited\u00a0the Malthusian principle\u00a0in his bestseller The Population Bomb,\u00a0<\/em>starting a movement to hedge the trend.\u00a0\u201cThe basic point is so simple,\u201d Ehrlich told Retro Report<\/a>. \u201cWe have a finite planet with finite resources. In such a system, you can\u2019t have infinite population growth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

In 2015, the global population is an estimated 7.3 billion, according to the United Nations<\/a>, and many\u00a0of Malthus\u2019s and Ehrlich\u2019s predictions have yet to come true or have been proven false\u00a0(such as the \u201cincreasing\u201d death rate, which has actually decreased<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n

According to a pair of 2014 Pew Research Center surveys<\/a>, however, today\u2019s scientists are more likely than the general American public to be concerned about population growth, though not necessarily to the extent that Malthus and Ehrlich were.<\/p>\n\n

\"Views<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Asked whether or not the growing world population will be a major problem, 59% of Americans agreed it will strain the planet’s natural resources, while 82% of U.S.-based members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science said the same. Just 17% of AAAS scientists and 38% of Americans said population growth won\u2019t be a problem because we will find a way to stretch natural resources.<\/p>\n\n

Americans used to be much less concerned about population growth, according to Gallup polls: In 1959, three-quarters (75%) of Americans had heard about the \u201cgreat increase in population\u201d predicted for the world during the coming decades, but just 21% of Americans said they were worried about it. And when comparing population concerns with a list of\u00a0global threats,\u00a0a 1997 Pew Research Center poll<\/a>\u00a0showed that Americans\u00a0were more worried about other potential risks.<\/p>\n\n

Looking ahead, it\u2019s still unclear what the population trajectory will be. The UN says<\/a> that population will continue to grow throughout the 21st<\/sup> century, predicting with 80% confidence that it will reach somewhere between 9.6 billion and\u00a012.3 billion people by 2100.<\/p>\n\n

Growth is expected to\u00a0occur mostly in Africa, and abate in the Americas, Europe and parts of Asia, especially as families in more-developed nations have fewer children than they used to have. In many countries in the latter regions, the total fertility rate has dropped below the \u201creplacement rate\u201d<\/a> of about 2.1 lifetime births per woman. The total fertility rate in the U.S.<\/a>, for example, fell to 1.86 in 2013.<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t

Global Population Estimates by Age, 1950-2050<\/h2>
<\/div>\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Over the course of history, many scientists and activists have raised alarm about population numbers that only increase every 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