{"id":12802,"date":"2016-08-29T12:31:29","date_gmt":"2016-08-29T17:31:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/this-may-be-the-last-presidential-election-dominated-by-boomers-and-prior-generations\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:18:06","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:18:06","slug":"this-may-be-the-last-presidential-election-dominated-by-boomers-and-prior-generations","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2016\/08\/29\/this-may-be-the-last-presidential-election-dominated-by-boomers-and-prior-generations\/","title":{"rendered":"This may be the last presidential election dominated by Boomers and prior generations"},"content":{"rendered":"

For the past few decades, presidential elections have been dominated by voters of the Baby Boom and previous generations, who are estimated to have cast a majority of the votes. But their election reign may end this November, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of census data.<\/p>\n\n

(Note: A post-election analysis of voter turnout by generation can be found here<\/a>.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Baby Boomers and prior generations have cast the vast majority of votes in every presidential election since 1980, data from the Census Bureau\u2019s\u00a0November Current Population Survey voting supplement<\/a>\u00a0show. In 2012, Boomers and previous generations accounted for 56% of those who said they voted. And these generations dominated earlier elections to an even greater degree.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

But the ranks of Millennial and Generation X eligible voters have been growing,\u00a0thanks to the aging-in of Millennials and naturalizations among foreign-born adults. These generations matched Boomers and previous generations<\/a>\u00a0as a share of eligible voters in 2012 and are now estimated to outnumber them. As of July, an estimated 126 million Millennial and Gen X adults were eligible to vote (56% of eligible voters), compared with only 98 million Boomers and other adults from prior generations, or 44% of the voting-eligible population.<\/p>\n\n

Although\u00a0the electorate is increasingly comprised of younger generations, this does not imply that the electorate as a whole is getting younger.<\/p>\n\n

Perhaps more importantly, eligible voters don\u2019t necessarily translate into actual voters \u2013 that all depends on who shows up to vote on Election Day. Whether Millennial and Gen X adults outnumber Boomers and other generations in November will hinge on voter turnout.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

In the 2012 election an estimated 70% of eligible voters in the Baby Boom, Silent and Greatest generations voted. Turnout among these generations was similar in 2004 (70%) and 2008 (69%).<\/p>\n\n

If (and it\u2019s a\u00a0big<\/em>\u00a0if) 70% of Boomer-and-older eligible voters turn out in November, Millennials and Xers could match them even by turning out at much lower rates. A turnout rate of 70% among older voters would translate to 68.6 million votes. Millennials and Gen X could match that number of votes with a turnout rate of 54.5%. This level of turnout among the two younger generations seems plausible based on past elections.<\/p>\n\n

In the 2012 election, 53.9% of Millennial and Gen X eligible voters turned out. Turnout among these generations was even higher in 2004 (54.2%) and higher still in 2008 (56.6%).<\/p>\n\n

Historical patterns of voter turnout by generation also suggest the likely end of dominance by Boomers and prior generations. In general, as a generation ages, turnout rises, hits a peak, and then declines.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Among those in the oldest living generation, the Greatest Generation, turnout crested in the 1984 election at 76% before declining. Similarly, turnout among eligible voters in the Silent Generation peaked at 76% in the 1992 election. The Millennial and Gen X generations are likely still on the upswing in terms of their turnout rates, so it is a reasonable guess that at least 54.5% of these adults will vote, and perhaps more.<\/p>\n\n

We won\u2019t know until after November if Boomers and their elders will pass the torch to Gen X and Millennials as a share of voters, but all the available data suggest that the 2016 election will mark the beginning of a new era for U.S. presidential elections.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent presidential elections have been dominated by voters from the Baby Boom and previous generations. That may change this November.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,201,204,89,42,200,90,203,157,199,57,49,50],"bylines":[984],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[520,519],"class_list":["post-12802","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","category-generations-age","category-baby-boomers","category-comparison-of-generations","category-demographics-politics","category-election-2016","category-generation-x","category-generations-age-politics","category-greatest-generation","category-hispanic-latino-voters","category-millennials","category-political-civic-engagement","category-voter-demographics","category-voter-participation","bylines-richard-fry","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-politics","research-teams-social-trends"],"label":"Short Read","post_parent":0,"word_count":527,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2016\/08\/29\/this-may-be-the-last-presidential-election-dominated-by-boomers-and-prior-generations\/","art_direction":{"A1":{"id":23798,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png?w=420&h=317&crop=1","width":420,"height":317,"chartArt":false},"A2":{"id":23798,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"chartArt":false},"A3":{"id":23798,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png?w=194&h=110&crop=1","width":194,"height":110,"chartArt":false},"A4":{"id":23798,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"chartArt":false},"XL":{"id":23798,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png?w=420&h=405&crop=1","width":420,"height":405,"chartArt":false},"social":{"id":23798,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2016\/08\/FT_16.08.26_votingGenerationsVotesCast-1.png?w=420&h=453&crop=1","width":420,"height":453,"chartArt":false}},"_embeds":[],"table_of_contents":[],"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"Younger generations of voters could dominate 2016 election","description":"Recent presidential elections have been dominated by voters from Boomer and prior generations. 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