{"id":11000,"date":"2018-08-03T09:01:20","date_gmt":"2018-08-03T14:01:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/when-writing-about-survey-data-51-might-not-mean-a-majority\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:14:48","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:14:48","slug":"when-writing-about-survey-data-51-might-not-mean-a-majority","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2018\/08\/03\/when-writing-about-survey-data-51-might-not-mean-a-majority\/","title":{"rendered":"When writing about survey data, 51% might not mean a \u2018majority\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/ft_18-07-26_majorities_feature_new\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"d5ba6c\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #d5ba6c;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" class=\"wp-image-21200 not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png 640w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=200,113 200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=260,146 260w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=310,174 310w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=420,236 420w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=160,90 160w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=320,180 320w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=540,304 540w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=564,317 564w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=268,151 268w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=536,302 536w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=194,110 194w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=148,84 148w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?resize=296,168 296w\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mark Twain\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodreads.com\/quotes\/4957-the-difference-between-the-almost-right-word-and-the-right\">once said<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cthe difference between the almost right word and the right word is really a large matter \u2013 \u2019tis the difference between the lightning-bug and the lightning.\u201d That advice is especially apt when writing about survey data.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For many people, \u201cmajority\u201d is a word so common that they rarely have to think twice about what it means. But it\u2019s a different matter for polling organizations like Pew Research Center. By their nature, polls provide an\u00a0<em>estimate<\/em>\u00a0of what a large group of people say, since they\u2019re based on a sample rather than the entire population. This basic reality can create challenges for writers who want to summarize poll findings in a precise way.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><!--more--><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To better appreciate the problem, consider these three recent news headlines:<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/politics\/majority-of-canadians-would-boycott-u-s-in-response-to-trade-war-nanos-survey-1.4000466\">Majority of Canadians would boycott U.S. in response to trade war<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.travelweekly.com.au\/article\/a-majority-of-travellers-are-picking-destinations-based-on-food\/\">A majority of travelers are picking destinations based on food<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/06\/25\/majority-of-americans-approve-of-trumps-handling-of-the-economy.html\">Majority of Americans approve of Trump\u2019s handling of the economy for the first time<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each headline includes the word \u201cmajority.\u201d But take a moment to consider the wide variation in the survey data that\u2019s actually being cited in each of the stories above. In the first article, a \u201cmajority of Canadians\u201d refers to 72%. In the second story, \u201ca majority of travelers\u201d refers to 64%. And in the third article, a \u201cmajority of Americans\u201d refers to 51%. These differences are substantial.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In order to present survey findings in an accurate and impartial manner in its reports, Pew Research Center has developed internal guidelines for using certain terms consistently. At the Center, writers cannot label a survey finding a \u201cmajority\u201d unless it meets specific criteria.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of these criteria is the survey\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2016\/09\/08\/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls\/\">margin of error<\/a>. Since surveys only question a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2017\/05\/12\/methods-101-random-sampling\/\">sample of a larger population<\/a>\u00a0that is being studied \u2013 whether that population is a single city, an entire country or something else \u2013 the margin of error describes the estimated range within which we would expect the exact answer to fall. (The results we would have gotten if we had surveyed everyone in that larger population is the \u201ctrue population value.\u201d) For example, if a survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95%\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.itl.nist.gov\/div898\/handbook\/prc\/section1\/prc14.htm\">confidence level<\/a>, that means we can expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 out of 100 times.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/ft_18-07-26_majorities_1\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f0f0f0\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f0f0f0;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"310\" height=\"293\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 310px) 100vw, 310px\" class=\"wp-image-21196 not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_1.png\" alt=\"Determining if a survey estimate is a majority\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_1.png 310w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_1.png?resize=300,284 300w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_1.png?resize=200,189 200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_1.png?resize=260,246 260w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_1.png?resize=160,151 160w\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s say our hypothetical survey asks a yes or no question about whether the economy should be the top concern of the country\u2019s political leaders. If 51% of all respondents say \u201cyes,\u201d we would estimate the true population value to fall between 48% and 54%. As such, 51% in this survey would\u00a0<em>not\u00a0<\/em>necessarily translate to a \u201cmajority\u201d of Americans. But if 54% say \u201cyes\u201d \u2013 again keeping in mind the 3-point margin of error \u2013 then we would estimate the true population value to fall between 51% and 57%. Therefore, it would be a fair characterization by our standards to say that a response of 54% or higher is a \u201cmajority\u201d share of the population. (The Center\u2019s writing guidelines note, however, that caution is always warranted when you\u2019re close to the threshold.)<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is important to remember that there are several sources of uncertainty in survey estimates, some of which can\u2019t be quantified. For instance,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2018\/03\/21\/how-do-you-write-survey-questions-that-accurately-measure-public-opinion\/\">question wording<\/a>\u00a0can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Another potential source of error is <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2017\/05\/15\/what-low-response-rates-mean-for-telephone-surveys\/\">nonresponse bias<\/a> \u2013 that is, when the people who respond to surveys differ in important ways from the people who don\u2019t respond.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the Center\u2019s writers can\u2019t quantify all of the uncertainties when summarizing survey data, they seek to acknowledge them. Or, put another away, precise writing requires an accurate description of imprecision.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For many people, \u201cmajority\u201d is a word so common that they rarely have to think twice about what it means. But it\u2019s a different matter for polling organizations like Pew Research Center. At the Center, writers cannot label a survey finding a \u201cmajority\u201d unless it meets specific criteria.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":67,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,357],"bylines":[894],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[518],"class_list":["post-11000","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","category-methodological-research","category-survey-methods","bylines-mark-strauss","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-science"],"label":"Short Read","post_parent":0,"word_count":615,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2018\/08\/03\/when-writing-about-survey-data-51-might-not-mean-a-majority\/","art_direction":{"A1":{"id":21200,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?w=564&h=317&crop=1","width":564,"height":317,"chartArt":false},"A2":{"id":21200,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"chartArt":false},"A3":{"id":21200,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?w=194&h=110&crop=1","width":194,"height":110,"chartArt":false},"A4":{"id":21200,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"chartArt":false},"XL":{"id":21200,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?w=640&h=360&crop=1","width":640,"height":360,"chartArt":false},"social":{"id":21200,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2018\/08\/FT_18.07.26_Majorities_feature_new.png?w=640&h=360&crop=1","width":640,"height":360,"chartArt":false}},"_embeds":[],"table_of_contents":[],"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"Why 51% in a survey isn\u2019t necessarily a 'majority'","description":"For many people, \u201cmajority\u201d is a word so common that they rarely think twice about what it means. 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