{"id":10211,"date":"2020-01-31T12:30:30","date_gmt":"2020-01-31T17:30:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T01:17:11","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T06:17:11","slug":"what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/01\/31\/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses\/","title":{"rendered":"What to know about the Iowa caucuses"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure><a href='https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png'><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"188\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?w=188\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium not-transparent\" alt=\"Majority of European students learn English in school; some in U.S. study Spanish\" srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png 620w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?resize=188,300 188w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?resize=160,256 160w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?resize=253,405 253w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?resize=200,320 200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?resize=260,416 260w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?resize=310,496 310w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/04\/ft_2020.04.09_englishineurope_01.png?resize=420,672 420w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 188px) 100vw, 188px\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" data-dominant-color=\"ecede9\" style=\"--dominant-color: #ecede9;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_357475\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-357475\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-357475\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/FT_20.01.28_IowaExplainer_feature.jpg\" alt=\"Workers take down the state flag on Jan. 15, 2020, in Cedar Falls, Iowa. (Spencer Platt\/Getty Images)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-357475\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Workers take down the state flag after an Iowa campaign stop by presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg. (Spencer Platt\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After months of campaigning, debating, polling, fundraising and <a href=\"https:\/\/patch.com\/iowa\/des-moines\/dem-presidential-candidates-eat-their-way-through-iowa-state-fair\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">eating fried food<\/a>, Democratic presidential candidates face their first real-world test on Feb. 3, when Iowa voters have their say in the state\u2019s caucuses. Here&#8217;s a rundown of important things to know about Iowa and its first-in-the-nation vote.<\/p>\n\n<h4 id=\"what-is-a-caucus-and-how-is-it-different-from-a-primary\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is\u00a0a caucus, and how is it different from a primary?<\/h4>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While primaries are run much like general elections \u2013 lots of polling places, a secret ballot, many hours to vote \u2013 Iowa\u2019s caucuses are more like neighborhood meetings. Starting at 7 p.m. in each of the state\u2019s 1,678 voting precincts (and, new this year, 99 satellite locations in Iowa, around the country and overseas), Democratic voters will gather, debate issues and candidates with each other, and eventually cluster in \u201cpreference groups\u201d to elect delegates to their county conventions. The precinct caucuses kick off a process which, several months from now, will result in 41 delegates being chosen to represent Iowa at the Democratic National Convention. The whole caucus process, which can take more than an hour, is nicely illustrated <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/interactives\/2020\/iowa-caucus-how-they-work\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Iowa\u2019s Democratic caucuses are open only to registered party members, not unaffiliated voters or those registered as Republicans or with other parties. However, people can <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecaucuses.org\/faq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">register or change their party affiliation<\/a> on caucus night if they want to participate.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><!--more--><\/p>\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\"><h1 id=\"how-we-did-this\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How we did this<\/h1><p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For this analysis, we gathered information from a variety of sources that track procedure, participation and outcomes for the Iowa caucuses. These include the <a href=\"https:\/\/iowacaucusproject.com\/2015\/07\/how-many-people-participate-in-the-iowa-caucuses\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Iowa Caucus Project<\/a> of Drake University, the Iowa <a href=\"https:\/\/sos.iowa.gov\/elections\/pdf\/VRStatsArchive\/2016\/CoFeb16.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">secretary of state\u2019s<\/a> office and various news reports. Demographic and employment data is drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n<h4 id=\"how-many-people-turn-out-for-the-caucuses\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How many people turn out for the caucuses?<\/h4>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a long time, that was a surprisingly difficult question to answer. Until recently, the parties didn\u2019t report attendance figures, only \u201cstate delegate equivalents,\u201d using <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2020\/01\/16\/iowa-caucus-vote-totals-change-099519\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">complex formulas<\/a> to translate the caucus-night results into state convention delegates. Individual precincts didn&#8217;t always keep close counts of how many people caucused, or if anyone left early. Add in that 17-year-olds can caucus if they\u2019ll turn 18 by Election Day, and the difficulties in reliably calculating turnout become clear.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notwithstanding all that, the <a href=\"https:\/\/iowacaucusproject.com\/2015\/07\/how-many-people-participate-in-the-iowa-caucuses\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Iowa Caucus Project<\/a> of Drake University estimated that in the 2004 Democratic caucuses and the 2008 and 2012 Republican caucuses, roughly 20% of registered party members participated. In the 2008 Democratic caucus, nearly 40% of eligible Democrats took part.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/01\/31\/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses\/ft_20-01-28_iowaexplainer_1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/FT_20.01.28_IowaExplainer_1.png\" alt=\"Who participated in Iowa's 2016 caucuses?\" ><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2016, 186,874 Iowans participated in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/elections\/2016\/results\/primaries\/iowa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Republican caucus<\/a> and 171,109 participated in the <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.4president.org\/2016\/2016\/02\/statement-from-iowa-democratic-party-chair-on-tonights-historically-close-caucus-results.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Democratic caucus<\/a>, both held on Feb. 1. On <a href=\"https:\/\/sos.iowa.gov\/elections\/pdf\/VRStatsArchive\/2016\/CoFeb16.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">that date<\/a>, according to the Iowa secretary of state\u2019s office, there were 586,835 active registered Democratic voters and 615,763 active Republican registered voters. That works out to 30.3% of eligible Republicans and 29.2% of eligible Democrats participating in the caucuses, or 18.5% of the state\u2019s total 1,937,317 active registered voters. (By comparison, in 2016, turnout averaged 29.3% across all the Democratic and Republican primaries.)<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of Jan. 2, 2020, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/sos.iowa.gov\/elections\/voterreg\/regstat.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">secretary of state\u2019s office<\/a>, there were 2,017,205 active registered voters in Iowa. 614,519 (30.5%) were registered Democrats, 639,969 (31.7%) were registered Republicans, and the rest were independents or members of other parties.<\/p>\n\n<h4 id=\"how-will-we-know-who-wins\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How will we know who wins?<\/h4>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That can also be confusing. Consider the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/politics\/santorum-claims-victory-in-iowa-but-confusion-hangs-over-results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Republican caucuses<\/a>, which historically have combined a nonbinding secret preference vote along with the delegate-selection process. In 2012, state GOP officials first declared Mitt Romney the winner of the preference vote by eight votes, then two weeks later said Rick Santorum had won by 34 votes. In the end, though, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/ron-paul-wins-iowa-caucuses-2012-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ron Paul<\/a> won a majority of Iowa\u2019s national convention delegates, despite finishing third in the preference vote.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year, the Iowa Democratic Party will report <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/elections\/presidential\/caucus\/2019\/12\/14\/democratic-presidential-candidates-may-lay-claim-winning-iowa-caucuses-they-may-not-wrong\/2568057001\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">three sets of caucus results<\/a>: the initial count of candidate support (called the \u201cfirst alignment\u201d), the final alignment (after backers of \u201cnonviable\u201d candidates have had a chance to shift their support to someone else), and state delegate equivalents. That means that theoretically, three different candidates may be able to plausibly claim to have \u201cwon\u201d the caucus.<\/p>\n\n<h4 id=\"how-reliably-do-the-iowa-caucuses-predict-the-ultimate-nominee\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How reliably do the Iowa caucuses predict the ultimate nominee?<\/h4>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/01\/31\/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses\/ft_20-01-28_iowaexplainer_2a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/FT_20.01.28_IowaExplainer_2a.png\" alt=\"Five decades of Iowa caucus winners\" ><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like so much else with the caucuses, that depends on how you look at it. Since 1972, there have been <a href=\"https:\/\/data.desmoinesregister.com\/iowa-caucus\/history\/#2016\/gop\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">10 contested Democratic caucuses<\/a>; in six of them, including the four most recent, the declared caucus winner ultimately was nominated. On the Republican side, there have been eight contested caucuses in that span, but in only three cases was the caucus winner ultimately the nominee.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For many years, there\u2019s been a saying among caucus-watchers that \u201cthere are only three tickets out of Iowa.\u201d That refers to the fact that since 1972 (and excluding years when incumbent presidents ran unopposed for renomination), the eventual nominee has nearly always been one of the top three finishers in the caucuses. The exceptions were Bill Clinton, who placed fourth in 1992, and John McCain, who came in fourth in 2008. Both of those were special cases, though: In 1992 Iowa\u2019s own Sen. Tom Harkin was the overwhelming caucus favorite, so the other Democratic contenders <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1992\/02\/11\/us\/the-1992-campaign-iowa-harkin-dominates-state-s-caucuses.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">mostly ignored the state<\/a>. And McCain was just 424 votes behind third-place finisher Fred Thompson.<\/p>\n\n<h4 id=\"how-many-other-states-and-territories-use-caucuses\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How many other states and territories use caucuses?<\/h4>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/01\/31\/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses\/ft_20-01-28_iowaexplainer_3\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/FT_20.01.28_IowaExplainer_3.png\" alt=\"Caucuses fading as pathway to U.S. Democratic presidential nomination\" ><\/a><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not as many as used to. This year, besides Iowa, only two other states (Nevada and Wyoming) and four U.S. territories will pick their Democratic convention delegates through caucuses, 11 fewer states than in 2016. In 2018, the national Democratic Party adopted a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2018\/08\/25\/politics\/democrats-superdelegates-voting-changes\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">package of changes<\/a> to its nominating process, including a rule encouraging state parties to use government-run primaries whenever possible.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Caucuses have been on the decline for a long time. On the Democratic side in 1972, 33 states and territories used them to pick convention delegates, and, as late as 1984, 32 still did. By 2016, however, only 14 states and four territories were still using them. (As a side note, the Republican and Democratic parties in each state can, and often have, choose different methods to select their convention delegates, with one party holding a primary and the other a caucus. We&#8217;ve focused on the Democratic side in this post because that\u2019s where the active nomination battle is.)<\/p>\n\n<h4 id=\"why-does-iowa-vote-first\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why does Iowa vote first?<\/h4>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Caucuses have been features of Iowa politics since the 19th century, but, as <a href=\"https:\/\/ir.uiowa.edu\/annals-of-iowa\/vol46\/iss8\/4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">one historian wrote<\/a>, they attracted no national attention before 1972: \u201cGenerally, caucus attendance was poor, and often a handful of party regulars were the only persons present.\u201d<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That changed after the national Democratic Party revamped its nominating process in the wake of its chaotic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.history.com\/topics\/1960s\/1968-democratic-convention\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">1968 convention<\/a>. As a consequence of those changes, the Iowa party moved its precinct caucuses \u2013 which typically had been held in late March or early April \u2013 to Jan. 24, somewhat inadvertently making them the first step on the long road to the national convention. In 1972, George McGovern campaigned in Iowa to raise his profile ahead of the New Hampshire primary; even though McGovern came in third in Iowa, he ultimately won the nomination. In 1976, the Republican and Democratic parties agreed to hold their caucuses on the same day, and both attracted substantial attention from candidates and the media. Since then, the state has zealously defended its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/elections\/presidential\/caucus\/2019\/08\/30\/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus\/2163813001\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">first-in-the-nation<\/a> status.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But this status has not come without opposition. Among registered voters who identify as Democrats or as independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, 26% say it&#8217;s a bad thing that Iowa\u2019s caucuses (and the New Hampshire primary) go before other states, versus 9% who say it\u2019s a good thing, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/01\/30\/most-democratic-voters-arent-bothered-by-iowa-new-hampshires-place-in-primary-process\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">new Pew Research Center report<\/a>. (The majority say it\u2019s neither a good nor bad thing.) Opposition was strongest among liberals and those who said they\u2019ve thought a lot about the candidates.<\/p>\n\n<h4 id=\"how-does-iowa-compare-demographically-with-the-u-s-as-a-whole\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How does Iowa compare demographically with the U.S. as a whole?<\/h4>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many observers and pundits say that Iowa\u2019s <em>de facto<\/em> gatekeeper role is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2015\/3\/18\/8250561\/liz-mair-iowa-caucus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">unfair<\/a> because it is in many ways so unlike the United States as a whole (although others argue that, depending on which metric you use, the state is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/20452371?mag=just-how-unrepresentative-are-the-iowa-caucuses&amp;seq=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">more representative<\/a> than it\u2019s often given credit for being).<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">White adults account for a much larger share of Iowa\u2019s population than is the case for the U.S. as a whole. Among Iowa\u2019s 18-and-older population, 91.6% are white, versus 73.8% of all 18-and-older Americans, according to 2018 Census data. Black Americans make up 12.4% of the 18-and-older population but just 3.2% in Iowa; Hispanics, who can be of any race, are 16.2% of the U.S. 18-and-older population but only 4.8% in Iowa.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the acres upon acres of corn and soybean fields you may have seen on TV, only 3.3% of employed Iowans work in agriculture and related industries. That\u2019s still more than double the share among all Americans (1.3%). Around one-in-six employed Iowans (15.1%) work in manufacturing, compared with 10% in the nation as a whole. In 2018, 7.2% of Iowa families had incomes below the poverty level, versus 9.3% of all U.S. families.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Iowa is less urban than most states. The 2010 census found that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icip.iastate.edu\/tables\/population\/urban-pct-states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">64% of Iowans<\/a> live in urban areas, ranking it 39th out of the 50 states. (Nationwide, 80.7% of Americans live in urban areas.)<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of educational attainment, 29% of Iowans ages 25 and older have a bachelor\u2019s degree or more, compared with 32.6% among all Americans in that age range.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After months of campaigning, debating, polling and fundraising, Democratic presidential candidates face their first real-world test Feb. 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