Many participants pointed out that a person\u2019s use of a technology does not necessarily equate to any level of trust in that technology. They said while some users may gain some level of trust in online interaction for various reasons in the next decade, many will be interacting in online spaces because it is convenient, because they are ignorant of or choose to ignore any potential negative consequences, or because they have no alternate options. A higher percentage of online participation certainly does not indicate a higher level of trust.<\/p>\n\n
Trust will be irrelevant. Hacking, identity theft, trolling, doxxing will become increasingly commonplace and a daily cost of doing business on the internet.Anonymous respondent<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
Vance S. Martin<\/strong>, instructional designer at Parkland College, commented, \u201cI am not sure that \u2018trust\u2019 will actually be strengthened, but use will increase. In order for there to be trust, people would have to actively think about the security of their digital information, and I don\u2019t think most people do. My S7 came preloaded with Amazon, Facebook and my carrier\u2019s account software. So there is presumed \u2018safety\u2019 in accessing these on my phone. My wife installs banking software and investment software on her phone as well. We mostly trust the safety of our information, but are also diligent about access and location of our phones. However, I work at a college where I see countless times how students lose their phones which are unlocked; they log in to various sites and never log out; and they get hacked (many times due to the first two points). Perhaps it is blind trust, perhaps it is ignorance of potential threats, but the use of mobile devices for all of young people\u2019s interactions is increasing. Could blockchain systems like bitcoin increase the safety? Sure. Could the successful mass use of quantum computing decrease the safety? Sure. From surveys on our campus we know that 91% of our students have smartphones, 100% have cellphones of some sort. My guess is that very few of them have thought about security or whether they should actually trust their information\u2019s safety.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> replied, \u201cIt is becoming clear that the norms that governed social interactions do not scale to the technologically mediated social networking we use today. One cannot, for instance, have any faith in secrecy of digital correspondence, even in a trusted human partner, because so many of us use technologies that necessitate a third party to have access to metadata, and often content, as a product of that transaction. Apps that upload address books to servers and email providers that read email have become the norm. Third parties inserting themselves into our social interactions, and our readily accepting that as normal, is a telling thing for trends to come.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Subtheme: ‘The trust train has left the station’; sacrifices tied to trust a \u2018side effect of progress\u2019<\/h4>\n\n
A share of these respondents expect people\u2019s trust in online transactions to be no different from their trust in institutions, which is to say that there is very little of it if any at all. Others observe that people will continue to expand their uses of digital technologies but trust is generally not a factor in their decisions to do so or \u2013 if it is \u2013 it is misplaced or undeserved trust or \u201ctrust by default.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Miles Fidelman<\/strong>, a systems architect and policy analyst at the Protocol Technologies Group and president of the Center for Civic Networking, wrote, \u201cPeople seem to have \u2026 a willingness to defer to authority and the human tendency to turn a blind eye to issues in favor of convenience. At the same time, experience generally breeds a level of cynicism. The result seems to be that people \u2018don\u2019t trust anyone, but do it anyway.\u2019 And then lurch from crisis to crisis. (Example, credit cards and passwords get leaked daily \u2013 we still use them with impunity.)\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous principal security consultant<\/strong> predicted that security will improve but attacks will continue to rise and systems are unlikely to gain more trust, writing, \u201cPeople \u2026 will not have any other realistic choice. The use of these systems will likely be expected in many interactions in the future. However, in the next decade, it seems unlikely<\/em> that the systems will be significantly more secure than they are currently without a major push from all involved parties. A number of new technologies are being rolled out to improve a number of areas of security, but they frequently fall victim to the same flaws that have been in software for decades already. Security will improve, but attacks will improve. It seems likely that systems will be engineered to more gracefully handle such issues: for example, making it easy to change your credit card number. This will improve ease of use when systems fail, but won\u2019t necessarily engender more<\/em> trust.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
A number of respondents argued that many of those online now and in future are relying on personal cost-to-benefit calculations estimating that the worst will not happen to them. An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> wrote, \u201cTrust is irrelevant. We know that people are wildly uncomfortable with the amount of information that, e.g., Google, has about them, but it does not stop them from using Google. People need to live their lives and they will use the services they find necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> said, \u201cTrust will be irrelevant. Hacking, identity theft, trolling, doxxing will become increasingly commonplace and a daily cost of doing business on the internet. Convenience and convention will keep us transacting; but our expectations will shift to accommodate those problems which are currently framed as trust issues.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous respondent at the U.S. Department of Defense <\/strong>observed, \u201cI work for a Navy cyber organization, so I\u2019m aware of the concerns today. And, as a classic Gen X person, I am naturally aloof and untrusting. That said, people sold their personally identifiable information a long time ago with Google, Netflix, Twitter, etc. The genie is out of the bottle for most with regard to the interest of \u2018privacy.\u2019 \u201d<\/p>\n\n
Luis Lach<\/strong>, president of the Sociedad Mexicana de Computaci\u00f3n en la Educaci\u00f3n, said, \u201cWe are suspicious of frauds, cyberattacks of our sensitive personal and financial information, but we are starting to accept that it is safe most of the time. The big challenge is to really have safe procedures over our financial records and personal information. The same principle applies over other areas: health care, education, etc.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
[and]<\/p>\n\n\n
An anonymous researcher at a state university<\/strong> said, \u201cAs security technology increases and as people become more normalized to online transactions, sales of goods and services online will increase and likely increase sales across borders and even-greater globalization of the service industry.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous senior research scholar at a major university\u2019s digital civil society lab<\/strong> replied, \u201cThe business of commerce depends on \u2018just enough trust\u2019 \u2013 the incentives are aligned to keep just enough trust in place.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Theo Armour<\/strong>, a coder, said, \u201cI trust a candle and a match more than I trust a light bulb and a power company. But I can do a lot more with the latter. And my trust becomes more informed and increasingly nuanced the more I use the transformed, transported power.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Some experts who study trust and systems say they don\u2019t expect a lot of improvement will emerge in the next decade.<\/p>\n\n
Mary Griffiths<\/strong>, associate professor in media at the University of Adelaide, South Australia, commented, \u201cThe mobile users I surveyed recently in two Australian cities noted security of information and lack of privacy as major concerns which affected decisions on the use of apps. Others noted the smartphone\u2019s locative functionality as something they did not particularly like. This suggests that increased surveillance of the individual by parties unknown is a continuing concern. Some respondents spoke about their trust that if something \u2018went wrong,\u2019 it would be fixed by responsible agencies. My view is that while a significant number will opt out in future, many will accept change and expect problems to be worked out by regulatory bodies as development occurs. They will create the pressure for accountable systems.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Some respondents complained about surveillance, the lack of disclosures of attacks and data thefts, the push by governments to include back doors by which they evade or overcome encryption and other security measures and called for the public to have more access to the data that companies like Facebook have collected about them and information about how it is used.<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> said security will rise and privacy will fall by the wayside, predicting, \u201cConfidence in the ability of companies to secure information will increase, while there will be a decrease in the confidence that companies can be trusted to not use the information at the user\u2019s expense.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Another anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> observed, \u201cPeople\u2019s \u2018trust\u2019 is going to depend upon how sophisticated they are. There doesn\u2019t seem to be a huge push to make them more sophisticated, although right now the internet is more open and so people have an opportunity to learn if they so choose. I think disclosures in PLAIN LANGUAGE should be right at the top. We are learning almost daily about the abysmal security practiced by companies large and small \u2013 even security companies. So will this knowledge diminish trust? For me, yes. For others, no, unless they become personally liable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous state employee<\/strong> replied, \u201cThis will depend heavily on the rate at which people are victimized, online versus brick-and-mortar retailers. If credit cards and personal information are stolen at both institutions at the same rate it will remain the same. If these are stolen less at one or the other then the perception will be swayed in that direction. Media coverage will also play heavily into the perception of safety.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> commented, \u201cThe biggest challenge will come from ensuring that the processes used by the trusted systems are fully reviewed and do not contain back doors required by governments. We need open processes and communication. Secrecy is for the data inside the messages, not for the process that is supposed to keep our secrets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous community advocate<\/strong> said, \u201cWidespread trust will be harder to earn, and there is certainly a distrust of centralized resources (e.g., Facebook). In the future we should have more access to data to base our decisions on, socially and otherwise.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> wrote, \u201cI remember the pulse-pounding fear I felt the first time I entered credit card information into a website to order something, which probably would have been in the mid-2000s. My trepidation would be laughable to a person of my socioeconomic status growing up today. In my lifetime I\u2019ve seen a clear trend toward more spheres of one\u2019s life being opened up to the internet rather than fewer, and I don\u2019t see how that genie goes back in the bottle barring some unforeseen crisis. Within my lifetime, I predict that many things I would never do online will become the norm for people younger than me. I\u2019ll be able to put a drop of blood in my computer and upload data to a web service that will tell me if I have high cholesterol or diabetes or HIV. At some point this database will be hacked and a lot of people\u2019s private information will be made public, as has happened in many other areas of the internet. People will freak out, but continue using the service because it\u2019s convenient and has many benefits, and eventually private medical information will just enter the domain of things people know about one another. There are legitimate concerns to be addressed around government and law enforcement surveillance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Subtheme: People often become attached to convenience and inured to risk<\/h4>\n\n
Many participants in this survey argued that immediate rewards outweigh perceived risks, thus reliance on digital tools for interactions requiring trust will spread even more widely as the infusion of technology into people\u2019s lives and their environment expands and they become increasingly familiar with and dependent upon it.<\/p>\n\n
Trust takes a back seat to convenience for most.Richard J. Perry<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
The convenience of digital devices is regularly cited as a primary reason people are willing to interact and execute important transactions online despite any doubts they may have in regard to security and privacy issues. An anonymous web and mobile developer<\/strong> commented, \u201cBeing able to buy groceries when you\u2019re commuting, talking with colleagues when doing a transatlantic flight, or simply ordering food for your goldfish right before skydiving will allow people to take more advantage of the scarcest good of our modern times: time itself. Although, to be honest, I fear people will not be able to reclaim that time as theirs and, instead, spend it on more work.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Kevin Novak<\/strong>, CEO of 2040 Digital, replied, \u201cWe are all changing our thoughts and concepts around the definition of \u2018place\u2019 and \u2018physical,\u2019 and we will be more willing, open and trusting to receive services that help us solve our problems or needs in the most efficient and effective way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Richard J. Perry<\/strong>, a respondent who did not share other identifying background, said, \u201cTrust takes a back seat to convenience for most.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Julie Gomoll<\/strong>,<\/strong> CEO at Julie Gomoll Inc., commented, \u201cWe\u2019ll keep trusting, and trusting more, even if we shouldn\u2019t, because we can\u2019t bear the idea of giving up our digital transactions. We\u2019re stubborn that way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous chief problem solver<\/strong> observed, \u201cPeople are fundamentally lazy. Our best and brightest typically make systems and products so the rest can get more benefit from less work. Desensitization happens soooooo much faster on the internet because you\u2019re having thousands of stimulae hurtled at you every minute instead of a few stimulae per minute doing just about any other activity in the known world. The combo of a desensitized user base and consumer-protection activities is quite likely to increase everyone\u2019s concept of \u2018the internet is safe\u2019 because so many stakeholders care so much about actually making that happen (more or less). I doubt we\u2019ll be \u2018safer\u2019 in any objective way in 10 years than we are now, but I think the average person will spend a lot less time worrying about it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous professor<\/strong> said, \u201cPeople will expect data breaches, but will use online services anyway because of their convenience. It\u2019s like when people accepted being mugged as the price of living in New York.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
[trust in the internet]<\/p>\n\n\n
An anonymous assistant professor of data ethics, law and policy <\/strong>observed, \u201cPeople will receive less information about how their data are being used, and in the absence of massive public disaster, they will trust more and question less.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> faculty member at a large university<\/strong> commented, \u201cPeople are very poor at risk assessment and are desperate to communicate with one another. In general, short product lifetimes (\u2018fads\u2019) will allow connection-addicted users to stay ahead of the massive hacks that destroy each system in turn. This applies to brand apps as much as it does social media. As for shopping, convenience will always trump security, and short-attention-span consumers now have brand loyalties driven solely by the associated perceived social status. Quality and value are irrelevant; why would security matter?\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> wrote, \u201cAt this point one can just assume your private information has been stolen; and nearly everyone is now aware of phishing scams and other threats, yet humanity is just as happy to accept those risks in favor of free shipping. Institutions are pushing more services online-only (to save money), forcing people online despite risks. People continue to shrug and carry on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
[trust will be]<\/p>\n\n\n
Another anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> commented, \u201cBest-in-class, encrypted applications will suffer episodic attacks, but the convenience of using them in an increasingly centralized corporate economy run amok will make people trust them without much fuss or critique.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Nathaniel Borenstein<\/strong>, chief scientist at Mimecast, commented, \u201cBecause most people are completely unqualified to judge the underlying technical issues, their trust in various online activities will be shaped by what they\u2019re told, i.e., whoever commands the biggest ad budget. That would seem to be good news for the purveyors of online services.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Bernardo A. Huberman<\/strong>,<\/strong> senior fellow and director of the Mechanisms and Design Lab at HPE Labs, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, replied, \u201cUnless people learn of a big breach in security at a level that affects them, they will continue to trust blindly the new technology, mostly because of their ignorance of how intrusive it is.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Many said that ubiquitous connectivity and its affordances will cause trust to be \u201cbaked into the system\u201d becoming accepted, remaining invisible or at least being transformed to a mostly forgotten factor.<\/p>\n\n
Daniel Berleant<\/strong>, author of \u201cThe Human Race to the Future,\u201d said, \u201cDigital devices are becoming more pervasive all the time. Questions of trust and privacy will always be there but there is no reason to expect their impact to be greater than has been the case so far.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Luis Miron<\/strong>, a distinguished professor at Loyola University New Orleans, said, \u201cThe issue is not complicated in my mind. I believe \u2013 though I lack empirical evidence other than general market trends \u2013 that prices will continue to fall for smartphones and other digital platforms. This will increase online consumer participation. With increased usage, consumer expertise and access will expand, and so on.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous Ph.D. candidate<\/strong> commented, \u201cPeople will continue to be comfortable. It is very difficult to remain vigilant.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Alexander Halavais<\/strong>, director of the social technologies master\u2019s program at Arizona State University, wrote, \u201cThe process of globalization has often been seen as one related largely to politics and technologies of transportation. In practice, we have already moved beyond this. Distance is almost certainly not dead, particularly when it comes to traditional cultural exchanges. However, especially in spaces of economic and commercial exchanges, as well as in some cultural institutions (those that throughout history have been tied to cosmopolitanism), distance will quickly become less important to interactions. Especially in places where mobile devices have provided an opportunity to \u2018leapfrog\u2019 into the information age, we will see the effects of distributed services make interactions across languages and cultures far more common. Trust will be baked into the system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous computing sciences professor at a major technology institute<\/strong> said, \u201cThe connectivity among people, and between people and institutions (e.g., banks, retailers, governments) is going to help both the urban population (e.g., bypassing traffic and other physical obstacles) and the rural population (e.g., shrinking the physical distance).\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Some said cultural acceptance will play the largest role in relieving trust concerns.<\/p>\n\n
The more we have a fully digital culture, the better it will be for trust, for privacy, and for society in general. Trust cannot be built through technology. Trust is a social issue.Stephan G. Humer<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
Garland McCoy<\/strong>, president of the Technology Education Institute, said, \u201cWe have reached critical mass of social acceptance of the internet as a platform for commerce, education and social engagement. Peer-to-peer familiarity will help ensure robust adaption and utilization. The internet is like sex education; you get it through your friends.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Stephan G. Humer<\/strong>, head of the internet sociology department at Hochschule Fresenius in Berlin, wrote, \u201cPeople\u2019s trust will be strengthened because we see an ongoing spread of digitization throughout the world and a growing knowledge regarding the importance of dealing with digitization. New players will arise, new forms of digitization will be shaped, but there is one area of life that truly makes a difference: culture. The more we have a fully digital culture, the better it will be for trust, for privacy, and for society in general. Trust cannot be built through technology. Trust is a social issue.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Many participants in this canvassing took note of the public\u2019s previous transitions to mostly trusting technology despite proven risks \u2013 for instance, pointing out that people die in car crashes but that does not stop them from using cars.<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> wrote, \u201cAny new technology is not trusted at first: the car, the aircraft and so on. We are still at the infant stages of the internet. By the end of this century the internet and related technologies shall be \u2018embedded\u2019 in most items that we own and will work with little or no user input.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> participant<\/strong> wrote, \u201cWe will trust technology with our private information. We love the ease of it too much not to. An example: My boyfriend doesn\u2019t carry cash \u2013 ever. Cards, phone apps \u2013 people prefer comfort over trust. It\u2019s too easy to say \u2018it won\u2019t happen to me<\/em>\u2019 when it comes to identity theft or other issues. People will take precautions, like wearing a seat belt in a car, and there might even be government regulation, just like seat belts; but even with thousands of deaths on the road, we still drive cars.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous professor of media production and theory<\/strong> said, \u201cThis is very complex. I, like many people, engage in vast numbers of transactions globally. We will see more of that on every level. I have done a lot of work\/research in Africa, where the phone starts to take on the task of many institutions, from hospitals to banks. I am particularly excited to see increased transparency in government in online contexts. The big problem is that on all fronts, our increased trust is easily taken advantage of by those who provide platforms, pay for information about our activity, etc. Until there is some kind of real \u2018online bill of rights\u2019 I see this increased action as perilous, as potentially devastating as the advent of industrial society was to working people in the 19th century. On the other hand, in my own work, \u2018the pursuit of knowledge,\u2019 the effect of using the internet has increased my ability to research and theorize, as well as to share with colleagues by something over an order of magnitude.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous professor at a public university<\/strong> observed, \u201cWe are just at the dawn of developing digital commercial and social applications and there are a number of implementation innovations that need to be developed to improve the experience and increase security. However, the commercial viability of these applications will drive improvements to increase consumer use of these systems. The applications will be too convenient for most consumers to miss out on and they will become the primary way we do business, shop and engage in social organization.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Subtheme: There will be no choice for users but to comply and hope for the best<\/h4>\n\n
A number of respondents went another step in describing how the inexorable march toward mass adoption of online interactions will proceed, arguing that the public will not have the energy, interest or capacity to resist because most aspects of daily life will require compliance. These experts say tech usage and acceptance will simply become normalized \u2013 often adding that this acceptance does not imply trust. An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> said, \u201cUsers will be coerced into using online technology more as alternatives are phased out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Marc Brenman<\/strong>, managing partner at IDARE LLC, commented, \u201cIt will be use the systems or nothing. There will be great impacts on national security (negatively), on personal finance, on privacy (negatively), on politics (coarsening).\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> wrote, \u201cTrust will be strengthened only in that relying on online interactions, with risks, will so be normalized that a considerable number of people may not know better, and may not question the architectures of online interaction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Yar Q<\/strong>uasar<\/strong>, a businessman, observed, \u201cTrust will decrease as knowledge of the risks grows and as people\u2019s lives get ruined by trust. However, this will not slow adoption since it will become untenable to live outside the new system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Peter Morville<\/strong>, president of Semantic Studios, said, \u201cTrust exists in a state of persistent disequilibrium. We need it to function as a society, but the threats and breaches will continue.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous technology writer<\/strong> said, \u201cThe late adopters will find that yesterday\u2019s analog services are no longer offered. They\u2019ll be forced to trust in other methods since there\u2019s no alternative. I expect the cellphone as a device to be obsolesced by some other media innovation, but it\u2019s hard to understand what that might be. It might be a chance to start over with a new and purpose-built structure of online interaction that\u2019s less frail and corrupt than the ones we have now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Bart Knijnenburg<\/strong>, assistant professor in human-centered computing at Clemson University, responded, \u201cI don\u2019t think online threats will diminish \u2013 in fact, they will likely increase \u2013 but users will be increasingly required<\/em> to interact online. As they become more familiar with this, their trust will increase.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Polina Kolozaridi<\/strong>, a researcher at the Higher School of Economics, Moscow, noted, \u201cI answered \u2018Trust will be strengthened,\u2019 but it is more complicated. There are as of yet no other mediums to trust. But I am sure that trust in online interactions will not be anything different from the offline.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> professor<\/strong> said, \u201cPeople\u2019s trust is built exclusively on perception. Increased experience with a thing gives them greater trust, even when it is not deserved. So long as internet retailers and other sites improve their capacity to avoid hackers, there will be greater trust simply by the fact that more people will have to participate in the online economy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous futurist<\/strong> wrote, \u201cTrust in mobile communications will be strengthened because it must. People will not have a choice. Every area you mention will change. I do not know how, but I know they will be different. Also, you did not mention family life, which is already changing in families that have phones. The phones are designed to mediate communications between people. That is the purpose. All of our social institutions are built upon communications between people. Now, take a device that is designed to change the relationship between people and the institutions must change. The people born into the mobile communications age are just reaching adulthood. I expect a social change more difficult than the 1960s is coming in the next five to ten years. The digital natives will have a very different ethic of behavior than the \u2018older\u2019 generations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Vin Crosbie<\/strong>, a professor at Syracuse University, wrote, \u201cAlthough alarming incidents of massive breaches of online security will probably occur during the next 10 years \u2013 probably extending upon the public\u2019s largely false sense of worry or distrust now about online security \u2013 people will nonetheless use utilize online interactions much more during the next 10 years than now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
People\u2019s trust will have zero correlation with reality. It is not appropriate to expect their feelings of trust to correlate with actual technological details.Anonymous software engineer<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
An anonymous program director at the U.S. <\/strong>National Science Foundation <\/strong>commented, \u201cIt is already part of the background fabric of our lives, and so will go on unquestioned except when things break. Some of the security must improve, both through technology and education.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous software engineer<\/strong> wrote, \u201cPeople\u2019s trust will have zero correlation with reality. It is not appropriate to expect their feelings of trust to correlate with actual technological details.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
A share of respondents argued that the builders and purveyors of these technologies are not illuminating privacy violations and security threats to the public clearly enough, and some note that the public itself will continue to adopt shiny new tools without question, whether out of necessity or just because they want them, of course failing to read any lengthy, dense and undecipherable terms of service and end-user agreements.<\/p>\n\n
[these technologies]<\/p>\n\n\n
John Anderson<\/strong>, director of journalism and media studies at Brooklyn College, said, \u201cTrust is something that can only be developed by an informed populace. Most people have not been adequately informed about how internet technologies work to properly assess their risks and rewards. When is the last time you fully read a terms-of-service document? That said, there are also many unknowns over the next 10 years that could greatly enhance or diminish trust. On the positive side, new security technologies may harden networks, pushing online transactions to near-ubiquity. On the negative side, cyberwarfare\/cybercrime or even terrorism utilizing electromagnetic pulse devices may shake our network infrastructures to their cores or even destroy them, waking people up to the real fragility of the digital world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Sam Punnett<\/strong>, research officer at TableRock Media, replied, \u201cThese activities have become integral to people\u2019s lives. They are destined to become even more so as institutions incorporate them for a variety of motives. There will be an increasing awareness that systems show their shortcomings periodically, but people will likely keep believing that compromise of these systems is what happens to other<\/em> people. Institutions will continue to move to automated interactions\/transactions, assessing benefits to themselves versus risk analysis of encountering catastrophe. Of course it often takes a catastrophe to reveal errors in the risk analysis.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous IT architect<\/strong> noted, \u201cTrust will be strengthened, but that doesn\u2019t correlate security or privacy. I\u2019ve been asked to demo health care apps, and I can\u2019t think of anything I\u2019d more rapidly avoid than sharing that sort of data with insurance companies, who already make healthy profits over denying coverage for even the simplest of procedures yet have a government mandate to exist and charge ridiculous premiums for this shabby coverage. Education over a phone is ridiculous. They\u2019re far too tiny. Over a regular computer, sure, it works to a degree, but the death of the PC receives frequent press.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> research and evaluation director at a major university<\/strong> wrote, \u201cPeople are going to have fewer and fewer choices for non-online transactions and will have to come into the cybermarket fold. The security providers will have to stay one step ahead of the thieves.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> said, \u201cPeople will eventually come to accept that they will be excluded from mainstream economic life and from good health care and education if they are outside the online world. And one hopes that security to protect privacy will also improve such that people will come to trust the systems more. However, it is likely that a growing group will live off the grid, never trusting that they will be protected in this environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous information security manager<\/strong> replied, \u201cUnfortunately, it will be strengthened since the majority of users are not IT-savvy on issues of privacy and surveillance. This is why all elected officials should be taking a more responsible approach as the advocates for their citizens rather than simply parroting the greatness of high technology in fighting terrorism.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> commented, \u201cI ticked the box that says \u2018strengthened\u2019 because the majority of people do not care (or don\u2019t understand) that the governments of the world (and certain tech corporations) are attempting to harvest our personal data for nefarious purposes. So for most people, they will only see the benefits of internet-connected smartphones, and they will grow to trust the machine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
A number of respondents agreed that the inexorable march to full, fuller, fullest connectivity will overwhelm trust issues, but some also pointed out that connectivity becoming the new normal has beaucoup benefits beyond simple convenience.<\/p>\n\n
Isto Huvila<\/strong>, professor at Uppsala University, wrote, \u201cMore and more interactions will take place online. People will have no alternative but to trust in things that make their everyday life work for them. But, on a larger scale, trustworthy and traceable technologies will have an impact and could play a major role in increasing the trust between those actors who operate online, and between the society and the actors who provide online services. If we can trust in a systemic and systematic sense in online technologies and services, they can really replace others not only in technical sense but also as a basis of how people interact with each other and remember things, and as a baseline of how things are supposed to work. This is unlikely to happen during the next 10 years, but trust in the digital is slowly becoming the new default unless something very dramatic happens that would essentially make online interactions impossible for a time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
M.E. Kabay<\/strong>, professor of computer information systems at Norwich University, replied, \u201cTrust will increase simply because familiarity consistently increases even irrational trust. Risk analysis is not a strong point among human beings. A simple illustration is that many people fear death and injury from terrorist attacks far more than from domestic nutcases armed with automatic weapons, from drunk drivers, and even from ordinary car accidents. Reality has little influence over emotion. Impact is likely to be affected by the growing population of smartphone-equipped users, especially in developing countries. In East Africa, for example, we have already seen major effects on economic justice simply because inland farmers have been able to find out how much their crops are being sold for in coastal cities. The tool for this information exchange? Mobile phones \u2013 not even smartphones. In East Africa and elsewhere, impoverished, cash-deprived rural family members have finally been able to benefit from the income of their diaspora simply through text messages facilitating money transfers, quite separately from the official banking systems. This kind of disintermediation can be highly positive. Disintermediation (removing absolute control of centralized power centers) over information flows threatens established dictatorships; they will retaliate to suppress independent information flows. We have already seen several examples in which such governments have interrupted internet access for their own citizens in what they perceive as emergencies. The People\u2019s Republic of China routinely does so using the so-called Great Firewall of China for controlling external information inputs. On the positive side, remote interactions for creative work have resulted in brilliant innovations such as virtual choirs<\/a> (look up the work of Eric Whitacre<\/a> for stunning examples). Augmented reality can include artistic efforts in addition to chasing imaginary pets as in \u2018Pokemon Go.\u2019 See the materials for my course Politics of Cyberspace<\/a> for more material on these questions. As for blockchain systems, these cryptographic signatures may help decrease anonymity, but they won\u2019t stop pseudonymity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
[there will be]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Many participants pointed out that a person\u2019s use of a technology does not necessarily equate to any level of trust in that technology. They said while some users may gain some level of trust in online interaction for various reasons in the next decade, many will be interacting in online spaces because it is convenient, 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