The Web Is Dead? No. It\u2019s a Web\/Apps\/Cloud Future<\/b> <\/p>\n\n
Tech experts say a mobile\/apps revolution is driving Web evolution and \u2018appification\u2019 has its dangers <\/b> <\/p>\n\n
As the mobile Internet boom really took hold in 2010, Wired magazine editor Chris Anderson proposed in a cover story headlined \u201cThe Web Is Dead\u201d that the World Wide Web was \u201cin decline\u201d due to apps\u2019 ascendance. Today, experts say the Web is thriving and HTML5 and cloud computing and \u201cappification\u201d will keep the Web highly viable, but some warn that by 2020 the Web, while more attractive and convenient, will be more closed and excessively monetized, with negative results. <\/p>\n\n
\u201cGiant interests will push every button they can: fear, inexperience, passivity, and willingness to be entertained. We\u2019ll get a cleaned-up world that we can be perfectly billed for,\u201d said Harvard professor Susan Crawford, founder of OneWebDay and former Obama White House technology policy staff leader.<\/p>\n\n
In a recent Pew Internet\/Elon University survey of more than 1,000 Internet experts, researchers, observers and users, a majority expressed either hope or confidence that between now and 2020 most people will continue to work, play, communicate and create content primarily on the open Web rather than shifting to the use of narrowly focused apps as the gateway for most of their Internet activities.<\/p>\n\n
While 59% agreed with the statement that the Web will remain the dominant space for 2020 users to access and share information online, a number of survey participants said the Web and apps will merge in an evolution that has not only positives but many negative implications for the future. <\/p>\n\n
\u201cThey said the Web and apps are merging online in various forms as people come to depend on mobile devices and access to tools and stored data in \u2018the cloud\u2019 \u2013 on remote servers,\u201d said Janna Anderson, director of Elon\u2019s Imagining the Internet Center and a co-author of the study. \u201cThey expressed concerns about the powerful forces that are working to monetize as many aspects of the Web as possible and said developers are focused on moving away from open protocols and information to primarily emphasize a closed, secure system where people can take profits.<\/p>\n\n
\u201cThey said apps\u2019 tremendous ability to meet specific needs becomes a double-edged sword \u2013 apps simplify life but they also create \u2018walled gardens\u2019 and a lack of serendipity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
According to these experts, HTML5 is expected to continue to add a greater degree of functionality and relevancy to the Web. \u201cMany experts predicted the cloud will dominate, the Web is the best place to develop and offer special applications and the \u2018appification\u2019 of the Web is already well under way,\u201d said Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center\u2019s Internet & American Life Project, a co-author of the study. \u201cWhile experts expect richer, simpler and more-secure user experiences, some worry that appification, standardization, and regulation could harm communication by 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
This is the second report generated out of the results of a Web-based survey fielded in fall 2011. It gathered opinions on eight Internet issues from a select group of experts and the highly engaged Internet public. (Details can be found here: http:\/\/www.elon.edu\/e-web\/predictions\/expertsurveys\/<\/a>)<\/i><\/p>\n\n Following is a wide-ranging selection of respondents\u2019 remarks:<\/p>\n\n \u201cInstead of couch potatoes you\u2019ll have app-potatoes.\u201d \u2013 Giacomo Mazzone<\/b>, head of institutional relations for the European Broadcasting Union<\/p>\n\n \u201cEase of use always wins.\u201d \u2013 Fred Hapgood<\/b>, technology author and consultant<\/p>\n\n “<\/em>The browser\u2014or its future equivalent\u2014will continue to have key advantages over apps \u2026Publishers have dreamed that apps would return to them the control of content, experience, business model and pricing that the Net took from them, but they are merely deluding themselves.\u201d \u2013 Jeff Jarvis<\/b>, professor, speaker, and author of \u201cWhat Would Google Do?\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe rise of cloud computing infrastructure means that apps will have comparable processing power and capability as traditional Web applications, and in many cases will be superior to our conception of today\u2019s Web.\u201d \u2013 Jeffrey Alexander<\/b>, senior technology analyst at SRI International<\/p>\n\n \u201cOnce HTML5 browsers and fully capable Web runtimes are in place on the common Kindle through iPhone, the Web app will begin replacing native apps.\u201d \u2013 Rob Scott<\/b>, chief technology officer for Nokia<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe World Wide Web may evolve significantly, but the core design of open and scalable will make it the compelling solution.\u201d \u2013 Robert Cannon<\/b>, senior counsel for Internet law for the FCC <\/p>\n\n \u201cThe apps model as developed by Amazon, Apple, Google, and the like is another form of the walled garden made notorious by AOL\u2026I have to admit the \u2018open\u2019 Web is certainly changing\u2014just ask the 750 million people on the anti-Web, also known as Facebook.\u201d \u2013 David Ellis<\/b>, director of communication studies at York University <\/p>\n\n \u201cThe world is moving away from open protocols where anyone can play to proprietary, more easily monetizable services.\u201d \u2013 Brian Trammell<\/b>, researcher, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology <\/p>\n\n \u201cThere will always be a Web, but it may end up like the imagery of a person standing on a soapbox, referred to more for its romantic symbolism than mattering in reality.\u201d \u2013 Seth Finkelstein<\/b>, programmer and consultant<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe Web is about discovery and serendipity, it\u2019s about finding something you weren\u2019t looking for; to lose that would be to take a step back in our progress as intellectual humans, the equivalent of burning a digital book.\u201d \u2013 Richard Titus<\/b>, venture capitalist<\/p>\n\n \u201cPlatform companies will push a great deal into their infrastructure and app developers will be able to push much higher into ultrastructure, providing a much richer user experience via post-browser-Web apps.\u201d \u2013 Stowe Boyd<\/b>, consultant and author<\/p>\n\n \u201cApps are a great intermediate play, a way to scale up functionality of a primitive Web, but over time, they get outcompeted for all but the most complex platforms, by simpler and more standardized alternatives.\u201d \u2013 John Smart<\/b>, futurist and founder of the Acceleration Studies Foundation<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe gated bubble worlds formed by app markets, Facebook and other private spaces will bloom and fade, while people will keep gathering in the open spaces.\u201d \u2013 Jerry Michalski<\/b>, founder of Relationship Economy Expedition and consultant at the Institute for the Future<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe ability of the Net to accommodate unlimited diversity will continue and therefore there will be an open Web, never fully open because there are many competing forces, but diversified and fast-moving, as a reflection of human society\u2019s restless character.\u201d \u2013 Allison Mankin<\/b>, computer-networking expert formerly with the National Science Foundation<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe \u2018World Wide Web\u2019 will be a term no longer used. Perhaps we will use a simple term meaning connected or not. Connectivity = life.\u201d \u2013 Amber Case<\/b>, CEO of Geoloqi<\/p>\n\n Respondents were allowed to keep their remarks anonymous if they chose to do so. Following are predictive statements selected from the hundreds of anonymous comments from survey participants:<\/b> <\/p>\n\n \u201cThe open Web will continue to be where the action is long after my iPad has become a coaster.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cUsers welcome trusted intermediaries provided they feel they are getting maximum choice and good value. Well-designed apps will emerge to accommodate user-generated content and make it much easier to find and use. Apps will also create a more efficient marketplace through which creators can harvest value for their innovations, far more easily than the repeated, failed efforts to monetize \u2018Web content.\u2019 Apps Store providers can ensure that apps are bandwidth-efficient, that they protect consumer privacy, that their provenance can be more readily known to potential users, etc.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe Web is the ocean. Apps are islands. Water and islands co-exist. Some people prefer to swim, sail and explore. Others prefer to sunbathe, settle, and, on occasion, island hop. Most people do a mixture of both. This will become more streamlined over time, but I don\u2019t think of the apps\/Web question as a battle with one winner.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cPeople don\u2019t understand how the Internet works now, and apps minimize the problems inherent with viruses, poor functionality, and malware. Apps will continue to proliferate, especially as mobile phones are increasingly used to access the Internet. It is not that the Web will be unimportant; it will just become part of the underlying technological framework that users acknowledge but do not understand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cWe will see an \u2018app-ification\u2019 of the Web itself, something we\u2019re already witnessing, as people\u2019s use of the open Web goes far beyond information retrieval on \u2018sites.\u2019 Browsers, design and coding techniques have already made \u2018Web apps\u2019 a common thing. There will probably be less of a gap between the capabilities and behavior of \u2018native apps\u2019 and \u2018Web apps\u2019 in the not-too-distant future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe future will depend on how powerful the oligopoly will be in creating a stratified system wherein the Web is deemed low-class and is therefore underfunded and slowed via corporate and regulatory connivance.\u201d <\/p>\n\n \u201cAuthorities will, piece-by-piece, eliminate the free Web through regulation, licensing and firewalls that respect country borders. The Web will be more like cable TV via apps; everything will be either pay-as-you-go or advertising-supported.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe very notion of \u2018apps\u2019 vs. \u2018Web\u2019 misses the point of changes in infrastructure that are rather closer on the horizon. This does not even take into account two extraordinarily important things: 1) The majority of the world accesses network communications via a mobile phone (and though network access is patchy at best, apps in this case are far more efficient) and 2) apps and<\/i> Web are becoming very much interconnected with cloud. It is the cloud<\/i> that is poised to change how things are done for work, play, and communication and apps and<\/i> Web will provide interfaces.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe Web will be increasingly seen by content providers as a more lucrative place to develop applications (rather than a specific piece of hardware or software). Developers will rather create one Web or cloud-based program that works on everything, rather than several different applications. As companies like Apple control their app stores with iron fists, we\u2019ll see software developers exploiting new Web technology to reach the widest audience and prevent a middle-person from skimming a percentage of profits.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cApps are a passing fad generated by the Apple marketing machine and the artificial constraints imposed by its business model. There\u2019s no reason the open Web will not come to provide the same benefits that people get from apps, while still holding on to its own strengths.\u201d<\/p>\n\n \u201cThe Web will be so vital by 2020 people will take it for granted. The average citizen born after 1995 won\u2019t be able to imagine a world without the Web any more than the average citizen born after 1950 could imagine a world without trucks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n The findings reflect the reactions in an online, opt-in survey of a diverse set of 1,021 technology stakeholders and critics who were asked to choose one of two provided scenarios and explain their choice.<\/p>\n\n 59% agreed with the statement:<\/b> <\/p>\n\n \u201cIn 2020, the World Wide Web is stronger than ever in users’ lives. The open Web continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, Droid devices, and their progeny\u2014the online tools GigaOM referred to as “the anti-Internet”\u2014will be useful as specialized options for a finite number of information and entertainment functions. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful and is the dominant factor in people’s lives.\u201d <\/i> <\/p>\n\n 35% agreed with the opposite statement, which posited:<\/b> <\/p>\n\n \u201cIn 2020, most people will prefer to use specific applications (apps) accessible by Internet connection to accomplish most online work, play, communication, and content creation. The ease of use and perceived security and quality-assurance characteristics of apps will be seen as superior when compared with the open Web. Most industry innovation and activity will be devoted to apps development and updates, and use of apps will occupy the majority of technology users’ time. There will be a widespread belief that the World Wide Web is less important and useful than in the past and apps are the dominant factor in people’s lives<\/i> .\u201d<\/i> <\/i> <\/p>\n\n Note:<\/i> <\/b>\u00a0 The survey results are based on a non-random online sample of 1,021 Internet experts and other Internet users, recruited via email invitation, conference invitation, or link shared on Twitter, Google Plus or Facebook. Since the data are based on a non-random sample, a margin of error cannot be computed, and the results are not projectable to any population other than the people participating in this sample. The \u201cpredictive\u201d scenarios used in this tension pair were created to elicit thoughtful responses to commonly found speculative futures thinking on this topic in 2011; this is not a formal forecast. Many respondents remarked that both scenarios will happen to a certain degree.<\/p>\n\n While 59 percent agreed with the statement that most people will trust and rely upon the open Web to access and share information over the Internet, a significant number of the survey participants said the true outcome will be a little bit of both scenarios, and some people said their choice of the Web as the winner was their \u201cvote\u201d for what they hope to be the 2020 outcome. The research result here is really probably closer to a 50-50 outcome, noted Anderson.<\/b><\/p>\n\n