http:\/\/onewebday.org\/<\/a>), responded, \u201cI\u2019m sad about this. Really sad. Apps are like cable channels\u2014closed, proprietary, and cleaned-up experiences. As at Disneyland, there are no back alleys or surprises\u2014anything unexpected was planned by someone at headquarters. I don\u2019t want the world of the Web to end like this. But it will, because people\u2019s expectations have been shaped by companies that view them as consumers. Those giant interests will push every button they can: fear, inexperience, passivity, and willingness to be entertained. And we\u2019ll get a cleaned-up world that we can be perfectly billed for. It\u2019s not good. It wasn\u2019t the point of the decentralized Internet. Even the commercial Web wasn\u2019t the point of the decentralized Internet. It was all supposed to be about human communication, unlimited, unfiltered, and full-bandwidth. But instead of being known (which is the goal of humans, always) we\u2019ll be counted by apps. Some of us will continue to ignore apps, and in turn we\u2019ll be thoroughly ignored and rendered irrelevant by the new world. But when you\u2019re bored, come visit.\u201d<\/p>\n\nSurvey participants who expressed concerns about a future dominated by app-enabled Internet gateways primarily see apps as \u201cclosed\u201d and the Web as \u201copen.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Seth Finkelstein<\/b>, professional programmer and Electronic Frontier Foundation Pioneer Award winner, responded, \u201cI wish it weren\u2019t true, but the history of enclosure, centralization, and consolidation makes me very pessimistic about the open Web winning over the closed apps. There will always be a Web, but it may end up like the imagery of a person standing on a soapbox, referred to more for its romantic symbolism than mattering in reality.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Mark Callahan<\/b>, artistic director for Ideas for Creative Exploration at the University of Georgia, agreed, writing, \u201cThere seems to be a steady trend toward \u2018app\u2019 culture. The idea of the \u2018open Web\u2019 will exist as a quaint notion in 2020, tinged with nostalgia and faded utopian desire.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Kevin Carson<\/b>, a research associate at the Center for a Stateless Society, predicted, \u201cIt\u2019s the Apple 1984 ad all over again, but this time the Big Brother on the telescreen is Steve Jobs and the hammer thrower\u2019s wearing a Linux penguin on her t-shirt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Richard Titus<\/b>, a seed funding venture capitalist at his own fund, Octavian Ventures, worried over the survival of serendipity, saying it depends upon the Web. \u201cWhat apps do terribly is the thing that makes so many like John Perry Barlow afraid of this stage of evolution,\u201d he observed. \u201cThe Web is about discovery and serendipity, it\u2019s about finding something you weren\u2019t looking for; to lose that would be to take a step back in our progress as intellectual humans, the equivalent of burning a digital book.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Ebenezer Baldwin Bowles<\/b>, owner and managing editor of corndancer.com, also expressed concerns about controlled devices, responding, \u201cApps are the logical extension of a late 1990s movement among freelance developers that produced thousands of snippets of software known as \u2018shareware,\u2019 some freely given for the love of the game, others launched into the Web in hopes of attracting donations or enticing users to purchase more robust versions of the snippet, now known as the app. There is nothing new but the level of corporate control\u2014much higher\u2014and the narrowing of options for the individual. Apps are also an outgrowth of a Web that has slowly but inexorably come to be dominated by a handful of major players and the insatiable institutional greed that motivates them to develop and promote tightly restricted and highly monetized iPads, Kindles, Nooks, Droids, and all the other sleek little tools and playthings designed, ultimately, to smother individual initiative and strengthen corporate control. This shall not change for the better by 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n\nIt\u2019s \u2018appening\u2019 right now: The emerging trend is accessing apps in the cloud, and \u2018appification\u2019 is under way<\/h3>\n\n
People are already conducting a lot of their mobile-apps-based and PC-based communication in the cloud\u2014on remote servers accessed through the Internet\u2014and the experts expect that evolution to continue to expand. Steve Jones<\/b>, a distinguished professor of communication at the University of Illinois-Chicago, said apps are already a dominant gateway through which many people focus online processes. \u201cThe degree to which people interact through apps is already quite high,\u201d he said, \u201cand it is only a matter of time until the majority of users of major sites like Facebook, Google, and others will be thoroughly via apps.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Cathy Cavanaugh<\/b>, an associate professor of educational technology at the University of Florida-Gainesville, predicted, \u201cApp development and use will be become easier and more inclusive as low-threshold development tools become as widespread as office productivity tools. Education will turn to app development as a project-based demonstration of learning and to custom, adaptive assessment apps for other measures of learning. Individuals will use app creation and modification as a creative medium.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Anita Salem<\/b>, a consultant and human systems researcher at the Naval Postgraduate School, said, \u201cApps are here to stay; I see them merging into the Internet as cloud applications, available \u2018as needed.\u2019 I suspect that the apps will also start to merge into more robust combinations that are task-oriented for the business sector. For personal use, apps will remain small and will be localized to specific functions. This makes sense economically for suppliers and purchasers.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Tom Hood<\/b>, CEO of the Maryland Association of CPAs, observed that his teenage and young adult children sleep with their smartphones and said he sees a combination of approaches. \u201cThe dizzying pace of adoption in the mobile category makes me believe that the apps are the future,\u201d he wrote. \u201cAccess to the open Web, useful focused apps, and cloud-based applications via mobile devices will be the most likely outcome in 2020. I am also wondering how the semantic Web (Web 3.0) will influence these predictions\u2014will they be apps, open-Web or both?\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Ondrej Sury<\/b>, chief scientist at the Internet registry for the Czech Republic, CZ.NIC, said big data in the cloud is the predominant looming trend. \u201cEven though the apps may be seen as more secure, the world is moving to the direction of offloading your data with big providers and it\u2019s really not important what protocol the people will use when accessing them,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThe problem with this trend is that the people will have less control over their data, there will be more snooping and more control from governments and big companies. It also means less privacy, which we also can see under the excuse of more \u2018security.\u2019 I actually think that there will be a gap\u2014there will be a mass of people who will prefer convenience over privacy and security, and there will be people who will guard their privacy, and then something in between.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
\u201cThe app revolution will soon be complete,\u201d wrote an anonymous survey participant. \u201cUsers welcome trusted intermediaries provided they feel they are getting maximum choice and good value. Well-designed apps will emerge to accommodate user-generated content and make it much easier to find and use. Apps will also create a more efficient marketplace through which creators can harvest value for their innovations, far more easily than the repeated, failed efforts to monetize \u2018Web content.\u2019 Apps Store providers can ensure that apps are bandwidth-efficient, that they protect consumer privacy, that their provenance can be more readily known to potential users, etc. While there are some potential trade-offs on \u2018openness,\u2019 the apps marketplace should be sufficiently competitive such that anyone with a legitimate product will have the opportunity to reach an audience\u2014probably far more readily than most innovators can through the Web. By no means will the Web disappear\u2014it will serve a critical free-speech function. But it will not be where livelihoods are made.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous respondent wrote, \u201cWe will see an \u2018app-ification\u2019 of the Web itself, something we\u2019re already witnessing, as people\u2019s use of the open Web goes far beyond information retrieval on \u2018sites.\u2019 Browsers, design, and coding techniques have already made \u2018Web apps\u2019 a common thing. There will probably be less of a gap between the capabilities and behavior of \u2018native apps\u2019 and \u2018Web apps\u2019 in the not-too-distant future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Jeff Eisenach<\/b>, managing director and principal at Navigant Economics LLC, said, \u201cDigital tools that park some code on the device and some in the cloud (apps) will continue to proliferate, along with tools accessed through generic browsers (\u2018Web pages\u2019) and tools that reside only on the device.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Paul Gardner-Stephen<\/b>, rural, remote and humanitarian telecommunications fellow at Flinders University, noted, \u201cHTML5 and other technologies will continue to blur the line between Web and app, until the average end user would have difficulty assessing the meaning of this question.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Rob Scott<\/b>, chief technology officer and intelligence liaison at Nokia, proclaimed there is no doubt that Web apps will replace native apps on network devices of all types. \u201cOnce HTML5 browsers and fully capable Web runtimes are in place on the common Kindle through iPhone, the Web app will begin replacing native apps,\u201d he said. \u201cThere will still be plenty of native apps in use to offer the utmost in user experience and performance, but the vast majority of applications look and work as much as their predecessors do while being served from the cloud rather than the local window manager.<\/p>\n\n
\u201cThe problem of intermittent failure of Web apps due to loss of connectivity,\u201d he added, \u201cis addressed by putting the \u2018server\u2019 on the user\u2019s device and allowing it to act in a cached mode when connectivity is lost. While this cannot work for tasks requiring live network access, such as financial transactions, this limitation also exists for the native apps and thus presents no new problems.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Another anonymous participation observed, \u201cI currently see a broad degree of support from industry for purely Web-based systems. Google and Microsoft are clearly behind this and, strangely enough, I see Apple as also supporting this trend through its ongoing development of WebKit. So far as that support continues, I see the future of applications to be descendants of HTML5 and not iOS, Android, or WebOS. Cloud-based applications are better for everyone in the system\u2014developers, providers, consumers, and enterprise\u2014for this to fail.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Microsoft Research and Harvard expert danah boyd<\/b> agrees the future of the Web and apps is not an either\/or game. \u201cBoth will be used more heavily than either are used today,\u201d she responded, \u201cand, given the early stage of apps, it will appear that they are used even more. But the vast majority of apps are simply a wrapper around Web content that makes it as accessible as a bookmark, and the \u2018Web\u2019 is filled with DRMed content already. So creating a clean division between Web and apps is going to be more impossible anyhow.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Nathaniel James<\/b>, a social innovation consultant and former director of OneWebDay, said most consumers will follow the technology that is \u201caffordable, readily available, and provides an intuitive user experience,\u201d adding, \u201cThe massive investment and rapid adoption of the apps model suggests its strong standing vs. open Web technologies. However, even if the apps model does predominate, the open Web will continue to thrive, sometimes in parallel to, sometimes interoperatively with, apps. The global Internet user population will be massive, some markets will prefer the benefits of free, open technology, and a lively community of Web developers will steward an open innovation space on the Web.\u201d <\/p>\n\nMany trust in HTML5 and say that improving Web functionality will be a key to its utility<\/h3>\n\n
The engineers and research scientists who continue to work on the Web\u2019s evolution have been rolling out the semantic Web\u2014what some people call Web 3.0. Today\u2019s sophisticated Internet users go online expecting to find high-quality interactive experiences that incorporate their geolocation, preferences, animations, HD-quality video, and augmented-reality functions, to name just a few advanced characteristics. Many experts say the continued success of the Web is dependent upon the ongoing development and acceptance of HTML5, the latest version of the HyperText Markup Language used to create Web pages. <\/p>\n\n
HTML5 is most often used to refer to what is actually a suite of approaches (including HTML5, CSS, SVG, WOFF, and others) that Web architects are using to orchestrate interactive text, graphics, video, audio and other elements users wish to implement. The evolution to HTML5 is allowing people to create more dynamic Web content, making it possible to write browser-accessible Web apps that are as appealing and interactive as the device-specific apps so popular now on smartphones and tablets. The newest versions of browsers, including Firefox, Internet Explorer, and Safari, can easily read HTML5 pages without using \u201cplug ins\u201d which can sometimes cause usability problems. While HTML5 is still under development, it is being actively deployed; broad interoperability for the full suite is targeted for 2014. Many survey respondents said Web evolution will be significant over the next few years, heightening its relevance and functionality. They say the apparent separation consumers perceive between access through mobile apps and access on the Web will disappear.<\/p>\n\n
\u201cI would bet that HTML5 is going to make the Web very attractive. There are a lot of advantages to an open Web, and I would hate to see that go away,\u201d said Hal Varian<\/b>, chief economist at Google. <\/p>\n\n
Bruce Nordman<\/b>, a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, responded, \u201cApps and Web will both be winners, as many apps will be written in successors to HTML5 and so the distinction between the two will be less obvious and less important than it is today. There is some burden to having an app, so that there is a limit on how many people are likely to need or want, with ordinary Web services filling in the remainder.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Alexandra Samuel<\/b>, director of the Social + Interactive Media Centre at Emily Carr University, predicted, \u201cA year or two from now, the ascendance and elaboration of HTML5 is going to make the distinction between apps and Web seem somewhat artificial. We\u2019re already seeing the rise of mobile-optimized HTML5 sites that are designed to be locally stored, like apps, on a smartphone or tablet device. What we haven\u2019t got quite yet is a standard, cross-platform way to attach a payment mechanism to those sites (which are often sites that could be described as Web-based applications) so that people can be asked to pay for HTML5 apps the way they do for Apple or Android apps. Some manufacturers (notably Apple) will be strongly motivated to create developer tools that make native apps superior to HTML5-based apps, but the advantages of cross-platform portability and pricing, not to mention anxieties about vendor lock-in, privacy, etc., will likely make HTML5-based apps a strong, if not dominant, part of the app market. The real question is whether consumers will perceive those HTML5-based apps as part of the Web. What is worrying is a landscape in which so many people interact with the Web through these tiny little pinholes created by individual apps. If users\u2019 experience of the Web is largely through the lens of their apps, will they still perceive themselves as users of the Web? Will they feel like they have a stake in Web standards, access, interoperability, and net neutrality? Given how hard it is to engage today\u2019s users in these issues, it\u2019s hard to see how people who have grown up or lived behind the app wall will really feel connected to the Web as a whole.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Christian Huitema<\/b>, distinguished engineer at Microsoft, responded, \u201cApps are nice, but both users and providers are starting to rebel against the \u2018walled gardens.\u2019 We are already seeing the pendulum swing back towards the Web, with many companies bypassing the app store and delivering their content using HTML5.\u201d<\/p>\n\nA lack of \u2018walled gardens\u2019 is a perceived strength of the Web today<\/h3>\n\n
While some people see publishers\u2019 desires for revenues as a driving force for an apps-dominant world, Mike Liebhold<\/b>, senior researcher and distinguished fellow at The Institute for the Future, is one of many survey respondents who are confident that the economic angle will actually keep the Web on top. \u201cThe Web will be stronger than ever although apps will continue to be popular simply because many small developers appreciate app stores as commerce platforms,\u201d he said. \u201cMany large content and commerce service providers are growing resistant to sharing revenues with app store operators, and so will increasingly directly offer advanced services on the Web built on standard capabilities like HTML5 and subsequent developments.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n\n
A number of respondents shared Liebhold\u2019s view. One anonymous survey participant wrote, \u201cAs devices, operating systems, and soft\/hardware variants multiply, the Web will be increasingly seen by content providers as a more lucrative place to develop applications (rather than a specific piece of hardware or software). Developers will rather create one Web- or cloud-based program that works on everything, rather than several different applications. As companies like Apple control their app stores with iron fists, we\u2019ll see software developers exploiting new Web technology to reach the widest audience and prevent a middle-person from skimming a percentage of profits.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Pete Cranston<\/b>, a digital media and information and communication technologies for development consultant based in Oxford, UK, commented, \u201cWalled gardens don\u2019t survive forever in the Internet. As cheap, reliable, fast connectivity spreads, the open Web will continue to offer the best opportunities for innovators and market-breakers, especially as Internet-based economies grow in competition to the US.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous survey participant wrote, \u201cThis is largely a distinction without a difference. The apps that thrive will not be walled gardens, which is kind of what the Web Is Dead<\/i> argument implies, but different and more useful viewpoints on the larger Web which make it easier to navigate and use for a single task. So really the answer is both of the above.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Another anonymous respondent observed that \u201cnot all information can be gracefully atomized to the size of a mobile phone, and people probably won\u2019t be doing most of their \u2018deep dives\u2019 on the phone on the subway\u2014the app is the ocean surface for floating and swimming, the Web is the ocean for diving.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Apple has been in the media spotlight significantly more than competing mobile software and hardware corporations the past few years, with most of the attention focused on the success of the iPhone, iPod, iPad, and App Store. An anonymous survey respondent reacted, \u201cApps are a passing fad generated by the Apple marketing machine and the artificial constraints imposed by its business model. There\u2019s no reason the open Web will not come to provide the same benefits that people get from apps, while still holding on to its own strengths. The interoperability that the Web offers will trump the walled-garden silo, approach. The tide has already started to turn on this with magazine publishers creating Web apps instead of Apple apps so they don\u2019t have to be at the mercy of Apple\u2019s monopolistic business dealings.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Microsoft was mentioned in another anonymous respondent\u2019s reply: \u201cWhile apps are prevalent now, they will eventually overreach and the market will react to the concentration of power, just as it did against Microsoft.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
And another anonymous participant wrote, \u201cAs we know from the Apple vs. Microsoft cycle of the 1980s and 1990s, you can\u2019t run a high-margin, high-volume business through apps, and the new capabilities of the browser will make it the pre-eminent high-volume platform. Like automobiles or phones before it, the Web will be so vital by 2020 people will take it for granted. The average citizen born after 1995 won\u2019t be able to imagine a world without the Web any more than the average citizen born after 1950 could imagine a world without trucks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
With ubiquitous connectivity comes a need for more simplicity<\/h3>\n\n
A number of survey participants said the positive evolution of targeted apps and the Web will require the innovation of better approaches for managing information needs.<\/p>\n\n
Wesley George<\/b>, principal engineer for the Advanced Technology Group at Time Warner Cable, noted that progress is all moving us toward \u201cubiquitous connectivity.\u201d He responded: \u201cThe best application will win, whether it\u2019s categorized as an app or part of the Web (2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 42.0, doesn\u2019t matter really). The lines between \u2018the Web\u2019 and \u2018apps\u2019 will continue to blur, with the important thing being that the method employed makes the task easier, more intuitive, more convenient, richer, and better tailored to the device being used to complete the task. The only constant is that the ubiquitous connectivity that terms like \u2018the Web\u2019 have come to represent will continue to be stronger than ever in users\u2019 lives.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
Marti Hearst<\/b>, a professor at the University of California-Berkeley and advisor to start-ups and the major search engine companies, said, \u201cApps and the Web will co-evolve and each adopt characteristics of the other, and by 2020 we\u2019ll have some other model entirely. In more detail, the importance of apps will continue to grow, but after a while, people will have too many to scan through, and then people will require a way to manage apps, including a way to search them. Meanwhile, the Web is being very much changed and influenced by apps, and every year, what it means for something to \u2018be on the Web\u2019 changes. There will always be a need to find general information, and apps by their nature do not provide a centralized way for information to be shared. There will then be a need for a way for apps to communicate among themselves, be better found by search engines, and so on, and they will become more Web-like.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Some survey respondents said people don\u2019t distinguish between approaches.They just want access to what they need. \u201cPeople never<\/i> cared about the Web vs. apps and devices,\u201d commented Mark Walsh<\/b>, co-founder of geniusrocket.com. \u201cThey want free stuff, entertainment, and services when they want them, and on the device they have in front of them.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
An anonymous survey respondent expressed the frustration many people are feeling in regard to the staggering amount of choices, writing, \u201cWhat I see is a reduction in variety <\/i>within (not across) areas of activity. There is a confusing and frustrating array of hardware, software, apps, websites, etc. Choosing from among them and then using them is burdensome. While learning and getting accustomed to any one of these is not that hard, the diversity of them, with their different interfaces, is already problematic. When I come back to a piece of software or an app that I use infrequently, I have to figure out once again how this one<\/i> works.\u00a0 So I see whatever will simplify and unify our activities as being popular. As much as we worry about, say, Apple or Google, their consistency across many instances of use makes them easier to deal with. I see economy of effort, combined with quality of service, as the overriding criteria by which most people will make most such choices.\u201d<\/p>\n\nThere will be a blended world where each structure has its place, and they converge<\/h3>\n\n
Jeffrey Alexander<\/b>, senior science and technology policy analyst at SRI International\u2019s Center for Science, Technology, and Economic Development, sees the best future as a mix now being explored by companies like Amazon. \u201cIn general the Web will come to resemble a segment within the \u2018app economy\u2019 more than the reverse,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThe current incarnation of the Web will continue to be important for certain kinds of human-computer interaction, particularly those that require sustained attention and a richer media experience. However, the rise of cloud computing infrastructure means that apps will have comparable processing power and capability as traditional Web applications, and in many cases will be superior to our conception of today\u2019s Web. Amazon\u2019s new cloud-accelerated browser is an indication of where the Web is going, where more Web-delivered solutions will combine the best of local processing power and cloud-based distributed computing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Miguel Alcaine<\/b>, head of the International Telecommunication Union office in Honduras, said while apps will be dominant, the open Web will retain some importance. \u201cThe apps might grow up in restricted and guarded Internet spaces as opposed to the open Web,\u201d he predicted. \u201cAlthough it is less likely, they can also grow with their roots in an open Web. The open Web will remain an important place for technology people, probably with interoperability standards allowing people to switch between applications. There will be less and less things you can do if you decide to remain anonymous.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Mark Watson<\/b>, senior engineer for Netflix and a leading participant in various technology groups related to the Internet, says the Web itself is going to become more app-like, and he wonders how it will continue to be monetized. \u201cThe evolution of the platform available in Web browsers means that the experience when you visit a webpage and the experience when using an app will converge, possibly to the point where there is little practical difference between a \u2018bookmark enabled for offline use\u2019 and a \u2018downloaded app,\u2019\u201d he said. \u201cAlready many apps just render a Web page in a \u2018chromeless\u2019 browser window, so the distinction becomes a very thin one based on the UI used to launch the app\/page. A different slant on the question is: What will be the dominant monetization strategy for Web pages and apps? The current app-store model includes a one-time-up-front-payment model, which doesn\u2019t really exist on the open Web. It could be that this difference in monetization models is the only practical difference between apps and webpages.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
An anonymous respondent noted, \u201cThe Web is the ocean. Apps are islands. Water and islands co-exist. Some people prefer to swim, sail, and explore. Others prefer to sunbathe, settle, and, on occasion, island hop. Most people do a mixture of both. I think this will become more streamlined over time, but I don\u2019t think of the apps\/Web question as a battle with one winner.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous respondent noted, \u201cThe very notion of \u2018apps\u2019 vs. \u2018Web\u2019 misses the point of changes in infrastructure that are rather closer on the horizon. This does not even take into account two extraordinarily important things: 1) The majority of the world accesses network communications via a mobile phone (and though network access is patchy at best, apps in this case are far more efficient) and 2) apps and<\/i> Web are becoming very much interconnected with cloud. It is the cloud<\/i> that is poised to change how things are done for work, play, and communication and apps and<\/i> Web will provide interfaces.\u201d<\/p>\n\nApps vs. the Web is not the issue<\/h3>\n\n
A number of survey participants challenged the framing of the question. Their responses add a lot to the conversation. Many of the strongest arguments were made by anonymous respondents. Following is a representative collection of those responses:<\/p>\n\n
\u201cApps and Web browsers are delivery mechanisms\u2014the emphasis will shift strongly to services. The winning services and sites will be accessible by whatever means and device the user has\u2014browser or specific app framework. Consider the number of popular websites that support Web, app, and customized mobile access today. The underlying Web technology will remain important, as developing for the Web will make it easy to roll out apps for the multiple app frameworks that will be viable in 2020. No, the iPhone is not going to conquer the world, neither will Android, and I expect there to be at least one more viable mobile app platform in that timeframe.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
\u201cThis is asking the wrong question. We talk about the Web as if it were the HTTP servers that make it up, but it really is the information contained in it that\u2019s important. Prior to HTTP, we had FTP and Gopher. The proliferation of the Web is actually continuing in the various apps available, the Web is not being supplanted by the apps. So \u2018one or the other\u2019 is probably the wrong question. A better question might be\u2014\u2018How is the evolution of the Web best represented by apps\u2014momentary overlay or paradigm shift?\u2019\u201d <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
\u201cThe answer is somewhere in between. The biggest factors here are going to be issues of perceived control (by users and governments), monetization of content, customization, and the level of sophistication of users. As a result, I expect a bimodal distribution describing app use vs. online use, with the majority using a hybrid approach.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
\u201cThe question is not that the Web will be less important or useful. The point is\u2014the Web will be still important or useful but most devices and apps will find a more direct way to perform directly through the Internet (though not through the Web) several functions\u2014such as entertainment media, weather information, banking, etc.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
\u201cOpportunities to integrate data with physical spaces are under utilized, today, which means in 2020 there will be more \u2018apps\u2019, but they won\u2019t displace certain Web-only applications where screen \u2018real-estate\u2019 and heavy-weight computation are necessary resources. The limits of \u2018ubiquitous computing\u2019 will become more clear, as the hardware limits for battery life and network connectivity limit the scale of computation for certain applications on mobile devices.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
\u201cApp monocultures will not predominate, and in the absence of a single target platform for development, it\u2019s simpler and more profitable to develop for the Web, and not be beholden to an app store or platform vendor. Obviously, apps will continue, as will app stores, but they\u2019ll continue to be mass-market outlets for lightweight products on the one hand, and very narrow vertical outlets for very specific platform-dependent professional tools on the other, while the entire middle-ground will continue to belong to the Web.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
\u201cThe improved capabilities of mobile devices, plus the added efficiency, convenience, and enjoyment of using purpose-built apps will shift the consumer and non-IT specialized worker\u2019s focus rapidly to native code apps. The distinction between phone and tablet will disappear, becoming more of a matter of how much text or graphics you want to see in what size. With free or inexpensive apps for 90% of consumer\u2019s needs, that is where further investment will focus. Organizations will deploy apps for single-purpose internal functions. The World Wide Web will still exist for free-form research and use.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
\u201cBasically, in the current client and server silo model these are the two choices. But personal data stores and VRM will disrupt that model so the client and server or cow\/calf model that the Web currently is built around will shift dramatically over the next nine years. At that point, neither one of the scenarios conveys what will really happen.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
Some see a new user-interface paradigm that is still not visible on the horizon<\/h3>\n\n
[in humans]<\/p>\n\n\n
William Schrader<\/b>, independent consultant and founder of PSINet, said a lot can happen in just eight years. \u201cThe Web and the apps will be one<\/i> and the same,\u201d he predicted. \u201cThe app, if accessed by a large screen (formerly known as a computer) will automatically slide into a large-screen mode to allow more advertising and ease of reading, navigation, and additional information. The webpage will sense when the user leaves the computer and transfer the same information to the departing user\u2019s smartphone (or other device). Hundreds of examples might be stated which are all within reach with today\u2019s technology and innovative spirit. But, once we allow for eight more years of experimentation, technology innovation, and the co-mingling of \u2018telephone\u2019\u2014laptop, tablet, smartphone, and all the rest\u2014we must be prepared for the unknown. Yes, this will be an interesting eight years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Susan Price<\/b>, CEO and chief Web strategist at Firecat Studio LLC, expects rapid evolution of the user-interface or UI. \u201cApps mirror the human need for discrete labels and a mental model that helps us focus on one activity at a time,\u201d she noted. \u201cThe construct of a \u2018webpage\u2019 is probably on the way out, but the construct of a \u2018website\u2019 as the virtual representation of a business, organization, or individual, will continue to be needed. As UI technology develops, more virtual-reality experiences will allow us to \u2018visit\u2019 such a virtual establishment with an avatar, say. We\u2019ll transcend the \u2018page\u2019 model as these interfaces become more seamless and easy to use.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
Amber Case<\/b>, CEO of Geoloqi, is an anthropologist who studies the ways in which humans are implementing new technologies. She said she shares the views of writer and consultant Sheldon Renan. He argues that the concept of communications through tools such as the \u2018Internet\u2019 or \u2018apps\u2019 will shift and people will adopt the idea of Netness<\/i>. \u201cInformation will be able to speak on networks,\u201d Case said. \u201cNetworks, fields of connectivity, and the idea that everything is loosely entangled will be the norm. The paradigm will be that \u2018everything wants to be connected,\u2019 \u2018connectivity is opportunity,\u2019 and connectivity will make the invisible visible. Opportunities will be lateral, allowing different information stores and devices to connect to other stores. Networks will be redundant and loose instead of tight and brittle as they are today. If one cannot connect on one network, or a device switches off, another network will arrive to take its place. The \u2018World Wide Web\u2019 will be a term no longer used. Perhaps we will use a simple term meaning connected or not. Connectivity = life.\u201d <\/b><\/p>\n\nAbove all, humane approaches should prevail<\/h3>\n\n
Where are we heading? Richard Lowenberg<\/b>, director and broadband planner for the 1st Mile Institute and a network activist since the 1970s, offered this: <\/p>\n\n\u201cOpenness is a critical concept, which like \u2018sustainability\u2019 is over-used but largely misunderstood or applied. Tools and apps will continue to be driven by user needs, innovation, creativity, and consumerism. They will foster difficult, reactionary, and disruptive changes throughout the world if not developed in concert with humane approaches to our complex needs for better resource distribution, health and well being, sustaining energy strategies, and economic valuation based on the little bit we know about our place in the world which goes beyond the dangerous machinations of legacy political economics. Where is the app that allows us to simply view the slowly rotating earth from space? Where are leaders calling for simulation systems that allow us to view and run scenarios for improved local decision-support? \u2018Where is the knowledge we have lost in information\u2019<\/i> (T.S. Eliot)?\u201d <\/p><\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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<\/figure>\n<\/p>\n\n