Many attacks will have a \u2018cyber add-on\u2019 component<\/h4>\n\n
Jamais Cascio<\/strong>, a writer and futurist specializing in possible futures scenario outcomes, wrote, \u201cDepending upon how it’s understood, this could also be a \u2018yes\u2019 or \u2018no\u2019 answer. We’ll likely see a major attack that has a cyber component, but less likely to see a major cyber-only attack. In this cyber-add-on scenario, other forms of attack (from simple bombing to infrastructure damage to bioweapons) are enhanced by digital or electronic assaults meant to hamper our ability to recognize and respond to the main thrust of the attack. Cyber is a force-multiplier, in strategic terms, but not necessarily a useful solo vector. Here’s why: hitting a system large enough and pervasive enough that its loss will have major, widespread harmful consequences would take an extraordinary combination of time, coordination, sophistication and luck. Networked systems already exist in a hostile environment, and attention\/resources are already being directed to system security\u2014there’s a greater likelihood of a complex assault being spotted. Furthermore, redundancy, backups, and ready alternatives can mitigate the harm of a cyber infrastructure attack, and it’s hard to say from simple observation, which systems will be or won’t be supported in this way. This doesn’t make a sophisticated attack impossible by any means, but it makes such an attack much more difficult, and the results less certain. A hostile actor will want greater certainty of outcome and less of a potential to be caught. A cyber-only attack is possible, but less efficient (and likely less effective) than simpler attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Amy Webb,<\/strong> digital media futurist and founder of Webbmedia Group, wrote, \u201cIt’s quite possible. One big challenge is that in the digital space, typical geographic boundaries don’t apply. If you have a credit card, that company is likely using Amazon Web Services with servers in multiple countries. Amazon protects itself, but individual countries establish laws describing what constitutes a crime and how cybercrime will be punished. There is no overarching law that rules everyone, and some culturally different activities are more accepted than others. Likewise, depending on the person, her knowledge, and where she lives in the world, she may regularly pass along security bugs and viruses that could, along with many other users, contribute to a widespread outage. In order for us all to be safe and protected, collaboration and cooperation among governments, businesses, and individuals is necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Jeff Jarvis<\/strong>, director of the Tow-Knight Center for Entrepreneurial Journalism at the City University of New York Graduate School of Journalism, wrote, \u201cThere will be continuing attacks bringing continuing damage. The question is how big an industry that will spawn in securing systems against such danger and mitigating risk. But security comes not only from government and industry. It also comes from the huge forces of collaboration and volunteerism that can coalesce around open source as a means of assuring that many eyes will watch for vulnerabilities and many hands will fix the faults that are found.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Jerry Michalski<\/strong>, founder of REX, the Relationship Economy eXpedition, wrote, \u201cA tremendous proportion of the devices on the Net\u2014personal computers as well as devices\u2014have been compromised already, or will be compromised in the near future. Any device that isn’t attended to regularly to keep it from being vulnerable should be written off as part of the darknet. Targeted attacks should rise, as should dysfunctional ideas (memes), spread to sew discord or doubt. Far too much of the world’s computing capacity is defenseless. Anything with firmware that can’t be upgraded securely in the field is vulnerable. Loss of life may be more difficult than loss of property, as property becomes ones and zeroes. National boundaries will matter less and less, despite countries’ attempts to secure those boundaries and control their populations. People will join \u2018nations of choice,\u2019 giving their allegiance to loose organizations that have principles they love, such as Burning Man, the Tea Party, Occupy, and others that will emerge in the next few years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n David Brin<\/strong>, author and futurist, wrote, \u201cWe must move from the 1990s obsession with \u2018efficient\u2019 production\u2014e.g., just-in-time manufacturing. That proved disastrous after Fukushima. In nature, resilience is just as important as efficiency. If we work on it, our resilience will make a crucial difference making such attacks futile.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Hal Varian<\/strong>, chief economist for Google, predicted, \u201cThere will certainly continue to be cyber attacks around the world. However, I don’t think that such attacks will involve losses of tens of billions of dollars. For that to happen we would have to see systems down for several days. Katrina was the costliest US hurricane and it did about $100 billion of damages. Most hurricanes have been in the $20 billion range. I don’t see cyber attacks coming anywhere close to hurricanes in terms of the associated property losses.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Jim Hendler<\/strong>, a professor of Computer Science at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, wrote, \u201cI don’t believe a single major cyber attack of this kind will be a key event, rather there will be a growing number of smaller attacks and crime which cause increased awareness and willingness of people to take better cyber security\u2014security online will become a necessary part of life, varying by where in cyberspace one is\u2014much the way home security or car security is today.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Joel Halpern<\/strong>, a distinguished engineer at Ericsson, wrote, \u201cAny response to this is very much a guess, as what will happen depends both on what can happen and on what people choose to do. I would not be surprised if there was a network-based event which caused tens of billions of dollars in damage. I would expect that it is more likely to occur by accident than it is by deliberate action. This is based on the observation that random coincidental failures are much harder to plan for than human intention.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Paul Saffo<\/strong>, managing director at Discern Analytics and consulting associate professor at Stanford University, replied, \u201cThe question is missing the button I wanted to push: \u2018Maybe.\u2019 This is a classic wild-card issue: uncertain probability but potentially enormous impact. We will certainly have a steadily increasing number of cyber attacks by both state and non-state actors. The uncertain part is the scale of effects, and that is time-dependent: there is a race on between cyber defense tools and cyberattack capability, and at any given moment, one is slightly ahead of the other. On balance, it is a nail-biter. It is a close call, but I think we will have a bunch of scares, but will squeak through. More generally, my fear is that we are neglecting the risk of \u2018cyber errors\u2019 in creating wild disruptions. Stupidity is always more common than evil.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Fred Baker<\/strong>, Internet pioneer, longtime leader in the IETF and Cisco Systems Fellow, responded, \u201cThis is a little like asking whether the existence of a nuclear arsenal implies the eventuality of nuclear attack. I do believe that it is possible to perpetrate such attacks now, and we have seen tete-a-tete between nation-state actors in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and North America. However, the perpetration of an attack that causes \u2018significant loss of life or property losses\/damage\/theft at the levels of tens of billions of dollars\u2019 is likely to draw a comparable retaliation, and like the outcomes of nuclear assault, become its own counter-measure. It may, like nuclear arsenals, become a matter of treaty discussion.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Seth Finkelstein<\/strong>, a programmer, consultant and EFF Pioneer of the Electronic Frontier Award winner, wrote, \u201cIn general, for critical infrastructure, I’d say there’s enough low-level threat from ongoing minor attacks to make it difficult to pull off a really major attack. Much of this entwines with credit card security. Grabbing a bunch of credit card numbers is both far more profitable and far easier to do than massive disruption. So defending against that type of ongoing crime is sort of like an immune system challenge that helps guard against even more harmful attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Marcel Bullinga<\/strong>, a futurist and trend watcher, predicted, \u201cThe answer is connected to the privacy-enhanced infrastructure. If you have accomplished that, you have a safe infrastructure as well, not so vulnerable to cyber attacks. I guess a wildcard will do the trick of speeding up the creation of a safe infrastructure\u2014the explosion of a nuclear reactor or the theft of $200 billion in one second caused by a cyber attack.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Tiffany Shlain<\/strong>, filmmaker, host of the AOL series The Future Starts Here<\/em> and founder of The Webby Awards, observed, \u201cThere will be attacks, but just as quickly as they happen, we will figure out how to combat them. The Web is merely an extension of us as humans. We are good and bad and everything in between. But ultimately, I believe we are good. The Web will at some point have large-scale manipulation with malicious intent, but we will learn from it and overcome it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Doc Searls<\/strong>, director of ProjectVRM at Harvard University\u2019s Berkman Center for Internet & Society, wrote at length on this issue:<\/p>\n\n \u201cI imagine that Iran would already claim that it has suffered harm through the (alleged but widely acknowledged) Stuxnet attack by the US and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities. No doubt other forms of cyber warfare are ready for deployment by the U.S., Russia, China and other countries. Since what can be done will be done, sooner or later, it is reasonable to expect harm in $billions (at current valuation)\u2014to some country, or number of countries. On the other hand, the whole world is now one big system, and it will be very hard to contain the effects of a cyber attack, as we discovered (predictably) with Stuxnet.<\/p>\n\n Two questions need to be asked: 1) Who in a country is most capable of cyber-warfare? Is it the government or the hackers? 2) Is it in the national interest of a country to attack another with which it enjoys a high degree of business and other dealings? In business today, many old enemies are now close friends, at least in business.<\/p>\n\n In Russia today the concentration of techno-experts making money through botnets off of the (mostly U.S.-based) $many-billion advertising industry is very high. Is there a higher concentration of experts inside the Russian government? Almost certainly not, given the billions being made in Russia\u2019s clandestine botnet business.<\/p>\n\n My point here is that actors in the private sector, especially the bad-guy ones, may have stronger cyber warfare skills than their own governments. And they are already doing damage in the form of many billions of dollars siphoned off the flow of advertising money through Google and other companies.<\/p>\n\n What happens when the online advertising business, which has many characteristics of mania and bubble, starts to fail? If one doubts that failure will happen, consider this: more than 61% of traffic on the Net already isn\u2019t human<\/a>, and a third of that number is busy impersonating human traffic, no doubt for fraudulent purposes. Also, according<\/a> to Michael Tiffany of White Ops, \u2018at least 15 percent of American broadband households are participating in a botnet right now.\u2019 And the numbers are going up.<\/p>\n\n Both cryptography and cracking it continue to get more sophisticated. Those who are good at it won\u2019t stop. And all the countries capable of cyber warfare\u2014China, the US, Russia, India, the UK, Israel and so on\u2014are not going to stop preparing for it and doing everything they can to stay ahead of both their friends and their enemies, real and perceived. This constitutes a cold war of sorts. Likewise, spying also won\u2019t end. Spy agencies will do what they were created to do. They have always been, by nature and charter, outside the laws of both their own countries and those they spy on.<\/p>\n\n So we have this broad class of things we know\u2014notably the level of cyber crime happening constantly, and its effects on the whole Internet\u2014and a narrow class of things we don\u2019t, which is what the spy agencies know but won\u2019t say. (Yes, Snowdens come along from time to time, but the spying will continue.)<\/p>\n\n To sum up, I believe we can safely predict that cyber crime will be one of the daggers that burst the online advertising bubble, the collapse of which will cause harm to some industries (e.g., online publishing). But all bets are off for what will happen in cyber warfare. The one clear thing is that national boundaries and interests are far more blurred than they ever were when wars happened in the physical world alone.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A variety of views in regard to this issue are reflected in these big thinkers\u2019 imaginings of what may happen by 2025. Look for losses in intellectual property and via \u2018data pollution\u2019 Vint Cerf, Google vice president and co-inventor of the Internet Protocol, responded, \u201cYes, while it has been predicted for a long time, there 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\u2018Far too much of the world\u2019s computing capacity is defenseless\u2019<\/h4>\n\n
We must adjust our obsession with efficiency to also focus on \u2018resilience\u2019<\/h4>\n\n
Natural disasters cause more devastation<\/h4>\n\n
Security awareness and actions \u2018will become a necessary part of life\u2019<\/h4>\n\n
The worst events might be caused by accident<\/h4>\n\n
\u2018On balance, it is a nail-biter\u2019<\/h4>\n\n
![\"Paul](\"https:\/\/assets.pewresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2014\/10\/PI_14.10.29_FutureCyberAttacks_QuoteCards-Saffo.png\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\nLook for cyber treaties before things get too far out of hand<\/h4>\n\n
The digital \u2018immune system\u2019 will respond<\/h4>\n\n
Fixing privacy problems will also make things more secure<\/h4>\n\n
There will be a large-scale manipulation of the Web but \u2018we will overcome it.\u2019<\/h4>\n\n
![\"Tiffany](\"https:\/\/assets.pewresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/14\/2014\/10\/PI_14.10.29_FutureCyberAttacks_QuoteCards-Shlain.png\")
<\/a><\/figure>\n\n