{"id":93561,"date":"2017-05-03T09:46:52","date_gmt":"2017-05-03T14:46:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2017\/05\/03\/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T04:18:30","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T09:18:30","slug":"the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/05\/03\/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training\/","title":{"rendered":"The Future of Jobs and Jobs Training"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Six<\/a><\/p>\n

\"(Bill
(Bill O’Leary\/The Washington Post)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/figure>\n\n

Machines are eating humans\u2019 jobs talents. And it\u2019s not just about jobs that are repetitive and low-skill. Automation, robotics, algorithms and artificial intelligence (AI) in recent times have shown they can do equal or sometimes even better work than humans who are dermatologists<\/a>, insurance claims adjusters<\/a>, lawyers<\/a>, seismic testers in oil fields<\/a>, sports journalists<\/a> and financial reporters<\/a>, crew members on guided-missile destroyers<\/a>, hiring managers<\/a>, psychological testers<\/a>, retail salespeople<\/a>, and border patrol agents<\/a>. Moreover, there is growing anxiety that technology developments on the near horizon will crush the jobs of the millions<\/a> who drive cars and trucks, analyze medical tests and data<\/a>, perform middle management chores<\/a>, dispense medicine<\/a>, trade stocks and evaluate markets<\/a>, fight on battlefields<\/a>, perform government functions<\/a>, and even replace those who program software \u2013 that is, the creators of algorithms<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

People will create the jobs of the future, not simply train for them, and technology is already central. It will undoubtedly play a greater role in the years ahead. Jonathan Grudin<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n

Multiple studies have documented that \u00a0massive numbers<\/a> of jobs are at risk<\/a> as programmed devices \u2013 many of them smart, autonomous systems \u2013 continue their march into workplaces. A recent study by labor economists<\/a> found that \u201cone more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment to population ratio by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and wages by 0.25-0.5 percent.\u201d When Pew Research Center and Elon University\u2019s Imagining the Internet Center asked experts in 2014 whether AI and robotics would create more jobs than they would destroy, the verdict was evenly split<\/a>: 48% of the respondents envisioned a future where more jobs are lost than created, while 52% said more jobs would be created than lost. Since that expert canvassing, the future of jobs has been at the top of the agenda at many<\/a> major<\/a> conferences<\/a> globally<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

Several policy and market-based solutions have been promoted to address the loss of employment and wages forecast by technologists and economists. A key idea emerging from many conversations, including one of the lynchpin discussions at the World Economic Forum in 2016, is that changes in educational and learning environments are necessary<\/a> to help people stay employable<\/a> in the labor force of the future. Among the six overall findings in a new 184-page report<\/a> from the National Academies of Sciences, the experts recommended: \u201cThe education system will need to adapt to prepare individuals for the changing labor market. At the same time, recent IT advances offer new and potentially more widely accessible ways to access education.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

Jobholders themselves have internalized this insight: A 2016 Pew Research Center survey, \u201cThe State of American Jobs<\/a>,\u201d found that 87% of workers believe it will be essential for them to get training and develop new job skills throughout their work life in order to keep up with changes in the workplace. This survey noted that employment is much higher among jobs that require an average or above-average level of preparation (including education, experience and job training); average or above-average interpersonal, management and communication skills; and higher levels of analytical skills, such as critical thinking and computer skills.<\/p>\n\n

A central question about the future, then, is whether formal and informal learning structures will evolve to meet the changing needs of people who wish to fulfill the workplace expectations of the future. Pew Research Center and Elon\u2019s Imagining the Internet Center conducted a large-scale canvassing of technologists, scholars, practitioners, strategic thinkers and education leaders in the summer of 2016, asking them to weigh in on the likely future of workplace training.<\/p>\n\n

Some 1,408 responded to the following question, sharing their expectations about what is likely to evolve by 2026:<\/p>\n\n

In the next 10 years, do you think we will see the emergence of new educational and training programs that can successfully train large numbers of workers in the skills they will need to perform the jobs of the future?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The nonscientific canvassing found that 70% of these particular respondents said \u201cyes\u201d \u2013 such programs would emerge and be successful. A majority among the 30% who said \u201cno\u201d generally do not believe adaptation in teaching environments will be sufficient to teach new skills at the scale that is necessary to help workers keep abreast of the tech changes that will upend millions of jobs. (See \u201cAbout this canvassing of experts\u201d<\/a> for further details about the limits of this sample.)<\/p>\n\n

Participants were asked to explain their answers and offered the following prompts to consider:<\/p>\n\n