Many respondents who expect no improvement in the information environment argue that certain actors in government,business and other individuals with propaganda agendas and special interests are turning technology to their favor in the spread of misinformation. There are too many of them and they are clever enough that they will continue to infect the online information environment, according to these experts.<\/p>\n\n
A clear articulation of this view came from Howard Greenstein<\/strong>, adjunct professor of management studies at Columbia University. He argued, \u201cThis is an asymmetric problem. It is much easier for single actors and small groups to create things that are spread widely, and once out, are hard to \u2018take back.\u2019\u201d Moreover, the process of distinguishing between legitimate information and questionable material is very difficult, those who support this line of reasoning said.<\/p>\n\n An anonymous respondent<\/strong> wrote, \u201cWhack-a-mole seems to be our future. There is an inability to prevent new ways of disrupting our information systems. New pathways will emerge as old ones are closed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Eric Burger<\/strong>, research professor of computer science and director of the Georgetown Center for Secure Communications in Washington, D.C., replied, \u201cDistinguishing between fake news, humor, strange-but-true news or unpopular news is too hard for humans to figure out, no less a computer.\u201d<\/p>\n\n While technology may stop bots from spreading fake news, I don\u2019t think it will be that easy to stop people who want to believe the fake news and\/or make up the fake news.\nAnonymous program officer<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n Wendell Wallach<\/strong>, a transdisciplinary scholar focused on the ethics and governance of emerging technologies at The Hastings Center, wrote, \u201cWhile means will be developed to filter out existing forms of misinformation, the ability to undermine core values will continue to be relatively easy while steps to remediate destructive activities will be much harder and more costly. Furthermore, a gap will expand as technological possibilities speed ahead of their ethical-legal oversight. Those willing to exploit this gap for ideological purposes and personal gain will continue to do so.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Justin Reich<\/strong>, assistant professor of comparative media studies at MIT, noted, \u201cStrategies to label fake news will require algorithmic or crowd-sourced approaches. Purveyors of fake news are quite savvy at reverse engineering and gaming algorithms, and equally adept at mobilizing crowds to apply \u2018fake\u2019 labels to their positions and \u2018trusted\u2019 labels to their opponents.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Sean Goggins<\/strong>, an associate professor and sociotechnical data scientist, wrote, \u201cOur technical capacity to manipulate information will continue to grow. With investment tilted toward for-profit enterprise and the intelligence community and away from public-sector research like that sponsored by the National Science Foundation, it\u2019s doubtful that technology for detecting misinformation will keep up with technologies designed to spread misinformation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n An associate professor of communication studies at a Washington-based university<\/strong> said, \u201cThe fake news problem is not one that can be fixed with engineering or technological intervention short of a total reimagination of communication network architecture.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Fredric Litto<\/strong>, professor emeritus at the University of S\u00e3o Paulo in Brazil, wrote, \u201cThe incredibly complex nature of contemporary information technology will inevitably make for a continuing battle to reduce (note: I dare not say eliminate) false and undesirable \u2018news\u2019 and other information permeating electronic media. Without a foolproof method of truly eliminating the possibility of anonymity \u2013 and I cannot see this really happening by 2027 \u2013 there will be no end to the malicious use of most, if not all, modes of communication.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Michel Grossetti<\/strong>, research director at CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research), commented, \u201cIt is the old story of the bullet and the<\/a> cuirass<\/a>. Improvement on one side, improvement on the other.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Daniel Berleant<\/strong>, author of the book \u201cThe Human Race to the Future,\u201d predicted, \u201cDigital and psychological technologies for the spreading of misinformation will continue to improve, and there will always be actors motivated to use it. Ways to prevent it will develop as well but will be playing catch-up rather than taking the lead.\u201d<\/p>\n\n John Lazzaro<\/strong>, a retired electrical engineering and computing sciences professor at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote, \u201cI don\u2019t think society can reach a consensus on what constitutes misinformation, and so trying to automate the removal of misinformation won\u2019t be possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Andreas Birkbak<\/strong>, assistant professor at Aalborg University in Copenhagen, said, \u201cThe information environment will not improve because there is no way to automate fact checking. Facts are context-dependent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n A North American program officer <\/strong>wrote, \u201cWhile technology may stop bots from spreading fake news, I don\u2019t think it will be that easy to stop people who want to believe the fake news and\/or make up the fake news.\u201d<\/p>\n\n A researcher based in North America <\/strong>said, \u201cNews aggregators such as Facebook will get better at removing low-information content from their news feeds but the amount of mis\/disinformation will continue to increase.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Joseph Konstan<\/strong>, distinguished professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Minnesota, observed, \u201cThose trying to manipulate the public have great resources and ingenuity. While there are technologies that can help identify reliable information, I have little confidence that we are ready for widespread adoption of these technologies (and the censorship risks that relate to them).\u201d<\/p>\n\n A former software systems architect<\/strong> replied, \u201cBad actors will always find ways to work around technical measures. In addition, it is always going to be human actors involved in the establishment of trust relationships and those can be gamed. I do not envision media organizations being willing participants.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Can technology detect and flag trustworthy information? A North American research scientist<\/strong> said the idea of basing likely veracity on people\u2019s previous information-sharing doesn\u2019t always work, writing, \u201cPeople don\u2019t just share information because they think it\u2019s true. They share to mark identity. Truth-seeking algorithms, etc. don\u2019t address this crucial component.\u201d<\/p>\n\n A vice president for an online information company<\/strong> wrote, \u201cIt is really hard to automatically determine that some assertion is fake news or false. Using social media and \u2018voting\u2019 is overcome by botnets for example.<\/p>\n\n J. Cychosz<\/strong>, a content manager and curator for a scientific research organization, commented, \u201cFalse information has always been around and will continue to remain, technology will emerge that will help identify falsehoods and culture will shift, but there will always be those who find a path around.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Philippa Smith<\/strong>, research manager and senior lecturer in new media at Auckland University of Technology, noted, \u201cEfforts to keep pace with technology and somehow counteract the spread of misinformation or fake news may be more difficult than we imagine. I have concerns that the horse has bolted when it comes to trying to improve the information environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n [it]<\/p>\n\n\n Ed Terpening<\/strong>, an industry analyst with the Altimeter Group, replied, \u201cDisinformation will accelerate, as trust in institutions we\u2019ve thought of as unbiased widen polarization through either hiding or interpreting facts that fulfill an agenda.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Basavaraj Patil<\/strong>, principal architect at AT&T, wrote, \u201cThe rapid pace of technological change and the impact of false information on a number of aspects of life are key drivers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Bradford W. Hesse<\/strong>, chief of the health communication and informatics research branch of the U.S. National Cancer Institute, said, \u201cCommunication specialists have been dealing with the consequences of propaganda, misinformation and misperceived information from before and throughout the Enlightenment. What has changed is the speed with which new anomalies are detected and entered into the public discourse. The same accelerated capacity will help move the needle on social discourse about the problem, while experimenting with new solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Liam Quin<\/strong>, an information specialist at the World Wide Web Consortium, said the information environment is unlikely to be improved because \u201chuman nature won\u2019t change in such a short time, and people will find ways around technology.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Alan Inouye<\/strong>, director of public policy for the American Library Association, commented, \u201cNew technologies will continue to provide bountiful opportunities for mischief. We\u2019ll be in the position of playing defense as new abuses or attacks arise.\u201d However, he also added, \u201cThis will be a future that is, on balance, not worse than today\u2019s situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n A distinguished engineer for a major provider of IT solutions and hardware<\/strong> warned that any sort of filtering system will flag, filter or delete useful content along with the misinformation, \u201cIt\u2019s not possible to censor the untrustworthy news without filtering some trustworthy news. That struggle means the situation is unlikely to improve.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Some respondents noted that the people best served by the manipulation of public sentiment, arousing fear and anger and obfuscating reality, are encouraged by their success now and that gives them plenty of incentive to make things worse in the next decade. As a professor and author<\/strong> based in the United States<\/strong> put it, \u201cToo many people have realized that lying helps their cause.\u201d<\/p>\n\n An anonymous respondent based in Asia\/Southeast Asia<\/strong> replied, \u201cWe are being \u2018gamed,\u2019 simply put.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Just as it\u2019s now straightforward to alter an image, it\u2019s already becoming much easier to manipulate and alter documents, audio, and video, and social media users help these fires spread much faster than we can put them out.Martin Shelton<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n Alexis Rachel<\/strong>, user researcher and consultant, said, \u201cThe logical progression of things at this point (unless something radical occurs) is that there will be increasingly more \u2018sources\u2019 of information that are unverified and vetted \u2013 a gift from the internet and the ubiquitous publishing platform it is. All it takes is something outrageous and plausible enough to go viral, and once out there, it becomes exceedingly difficult to extinguish \u2013 fact or fiction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Martin Shelton<\/strong>, a security researcher with a major technology company, said, \u201cJust as it\u2019s now straightforward to alter an image, it\u2019s already becoming much easier to manipulate and alter documents, audio, and video, and social media users help these fires spread much faster than we can put them out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Matt Stempeck<\/strong>, a director of civic technology, noted, \u201cThe purveyors of disinformation will outpace fact-checking groups in both technology and compelling content unless social media platforms are able to stem the tide.\u201d<\/p>\n\n [and may improve the overall information environment]<\/p>\n\n\n An anonymous respondent,<\/strong> wrote, \u201cDistrust of academics and scientists is so high it\u2019s hard to imagine how to construct a fact-checking body that would trusted by the broader population.\u201d<\/p>\n\n While some people believe more surveillance and requirements for identity authentication are go-to solutions for reining in the negative impacts of misinformation, a number of these experts said bad actors will evade these measures and platform providers, governments and others taking these actions will expand unwanted surveillance and curtail civil liberties.<\/p>\n\n Fred Davis<\/strong>, a futurist based in North America, wrote, \u201cAutomated efforts to reduce fake news will be gamed, just like search is. That\u2019s 20 years of gaming the system \u2013 search engine optimization and other things that corrupt the information discovery process have been in place for over 20 years, and the situation is still bad. Also, it may be difficult to implement technology because it could also be used for mass censorship. Mass censorship would have a very negative effect on free speech and society in general.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Adam Powell<\/strong>, project manager at the Internet of Things Emergency Response Initiative at the University of Southern California, said, \u201cThe democratization of the internet, and of information on the internet, means just that: Everyone has and will have access to receiving and creating information, just as at a watercooler. Not only won\u2019t<\/em> the internet suddenly become \u2018responsible,\u2019 it shouldn\u2019t, because that is how totalitarian regimes flourish (see: Firewall, Great, of China).\u201d<\/p>\n\n An eLearning specialist<\/strong> observed, \u201cAny system deeming itself to have the ability to \u2018judge\u2019 information as valid or invalid is inherently biased.\u201d And a professor and researcher<\/strong> noted, \u201cIn an open society, there is no prior determination of what information is genuine or fake.\u201d<\/p>\n\n The owner of a consultancy<\/strong> replied, \u201cWe\u2019re headed to a world where most people will use sources white-listed (explicitly or not) by third parties (e.g., Facebook, Apple, etc.).\u201d<\/p>\n\n A distinguished professor emeritus of political science at a U.S. university<\/strong> wrote, \u201cMisinformation will continue to thrive because of the long (and valuable) tradition of freedom of expression. Censorship will be rejected.\u201d<\/p>\n\n A professor at a major U.S. university<\/strong> replied, \u201cSurveillance technologies and financial incentives will generate greater surveillance.\u201d A retired university professor<\/strong> predicted, \u201cIncreased censorship and mass surveillance will tend to create official \u2018truths\u2019 in various parts of the world. In the United States, corporate filtering of information will impose the views of the economic elite.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Among the respondents to this canvassing who recommended the removal of anonymity was Romella Janene El Kharzazi<\/strong>, a content producer and entrepreneur, who said, \u201cOne obvious solution is required authentication; fake news is spread anonymously and if that is taken away, then half of the battle is fought and won.\u201d A research scientist based in Europe <\/strong>predicted, \u201cThe different actors will take appropriate measures \u2013 including efficient interfaces for reporting and automatic detection \u2013 and implement efficient decision mechanisms for the censorship of such content.\u201d<\/p>\n\n A senior researcher and distinguished fellow for a major futures consultancy<\/strong> observed, \u201cReliable fact checking is possible. Google in particular has both the computational resources and talent to successfully launch a good service. Facebook may also make progress, perhaps in a public consortium including Google. Twitter is problematic and would need major re-structuring including a strict, true names policy for accounts \u2013 which is controversial among some privacy sectors.\u201d<\/p>\n\n A retired consultant and strategist for U.S. government organizations<\/strong> replied, \u201cRegardless of technological improvements, the change agents here are going to have to be, broadly speaking, U.S. Supreme Court judges\u2019 rulings on constitutional interpretations of free speech, communication access and any number of other constitutional issues brought to the fore by many actors at both the state and national level, and these numerous judicial change agents\u2019 decisions are, in turn, affected by the citizen opinion and behavior.\u201d<\/p>\n\n Anonymous respondents<\/strong> also commented:<\/p>\n\n Many respondents who expect no improvement in the information environment argue that certain actors in government,business and other individuals with propaganda agendas and special interests are turning technology to their favor in the spread of misinformation. There are too many of them and they are clever enough that they will continue to infect the online 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Future of Truth and Misinformation Online","slug":"the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online\/","is_active":false},{"id":93488,"title":"About this canvassing of experts","slug":"the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online-about-this-canvassing-of-experts","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online-about-this-canvassing-of-experts\/","is_active":false},{"id":93511,"title":"Theme 1: The information environment will not improve. The problem is human nature","slug":"theme-1-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-the-problem-is-human-nature","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-1-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-the-problem-is-human-nature\/","is_active":false},{"id":93542,"title":"Theme 2: The information environment will not improve because technology will create new challenges that can\u2019t or won\u2019t be countered effectively and at scale","slug":"theme-2-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-because-technology-will-create-new-challenges-that-cant-or-wont-be-countered-effectively-and-at-scale","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-2-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-because-technology-will-create-new-challenges-that-cant-or-wont-be-countered-effectively-and-at-scale\/","is_active":true},{"id":93550,"title":"Theme 3: The information environment will improve because technology will help label, filter or ban misinformation and thus upgrade the public\u2019s ability to judge the quality and veracity of content","slug":"theme-3-the-information-environment-will-improve-because-technology-will-help-label-filter-or-ban-misinformation-and-thus-upgrade-the-publics-ability-to-judge-the-quality-and-veracity-of-co","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-3-the-information-environment-will-improve-because-technology-will-help-label-filter-or-ban-misinformation-and-thus-upgrade-the-publics-ability-to-judge-the-quality-and-veracity-of-co\/","is_active":false},{"id":93526,"title":"Theme 4: The information environment will improve, because people will adjust and make things better","slug":"theme-4-the-information-environment-will-improve-because-people-will-adjust-and-make-things-better","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-4-the-information-environment-will-improve-because-people-will-adjust-and-make-things-better\/","is_active":false},{"id":93534,"title":"Theme 5: Tech can\u2019t win the battle. The public must fund and support the production of objective, accurate information. It must also elevate information literacy to be a primary goal of education","slug":"theme-5-tech-cant-win-the-battle-the-public-must-fund-and-support-the-production-of-objective-accurate-information-it-must-also-elevate-information-literacy-to-be-a-primary-goal-of-educat","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-5-tech-cant-win-the-battle-the-public-must-fund-and-support-the-production-of-objective-accurate-information-it-must-also-elevate-information-literacy-to-be-a-primary-goal-of-educat\/","is_active":false},{"id":93518,"title":"Acknowledgments","slug":"the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online-acknowledgments","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online-acknowledgments\/","is_active":false}],"report_materials":[{"key":"966b0dcb-7d3a-4ca3-b1b1-3ac1784fe0f9","type":"report","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2017\/10\/PI_2017.10.19_Future-of-Truth-and-Misinformation_FINAL.pdf","label":"","icon":"","attachmentId":""},{"key":"1aaea6c5-1615-46a4-bfc6-f415c96eeda8","type":"promo","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/shareable-quotes-from-experts-on-the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online\/","label":"Shareable quotes from experts on the future of truth and misinformation online","icon":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2017\/03\/PI_2017.03.29_social-climate_quotes140x140.png?w=75&h=75&crop=1","attachmentId":18611}],"report_pagination":{"current_post":{"id":93542,"title":"Theme 2: The information environment will not improve because technology will create new challenges that can\u2019t or won\u2019t be countered effectively and at scale","slug":"theme-2-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-because-technology-will-create-new-challenges-that-cant-or-wont-be-countered-effectively-and-at-scale","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-2-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-because-technology-will-create-new-challenges-that-cant-or-wont-be-countered-effectively-and-at-scale\/","is_active":true,"page_num":4},"next_post":{"id":93550,"title":"Theme 3: The information environment will improve because technology will help label, filter or ban misinformation and thus upgrade the public\u2019s ability to judge the quality and veracity of content","slug":"theme-3-the-information-environment-will-improve-because-technology-will-help-label-filter-or-ban-misinformation-and-thus-upgrade-the-publics-ability-to-judge-the-quality-and-veracity-of-co","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-3-the-information-environment-will-improve-because-technology-will-help-label-filter-or-ban-misinformation-and-thus-upgrade-the-publics-ability-to-judge-the-quality-and-veracity-of-co\/","is_active":false,"page_num":5},"previous_post":{"id":93511,"title":"Theme 1: The information environment will not improve. The problem is human nature","slug":"theme-1-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-the-problem-is-human-nature","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/theme-1-the-information-environment-will-not-improve-the-problem-is-human-nature\/","is_active":false,"page_num":3},"pagination_items":[{"id":93497,"title":"The Future of Truth and Misinformation Online","slug":"the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online\/","is_active":false,"page_num":1},{"id":93488,"title":"About this canvassing of experts","slug":"the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online-about-this-canvassing-of-experts","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/10\/19\/the-future-of-truth-and-misinformation-online-about-this-canvassing-of-experts\/","is_active":false,"page_num":2},{"id":93511,"title":"Theme 1: The information environment will not improve. 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generally acting for themselves and not the public good have the advantage, and they are likely to stay ahead in the information wars<\/h4>\n\n
Weaponized narratives and other false content will be magnified by social media, online filter bubbles and AI<\/h4>\n\n
The most-effective tech solutions to misinformation will endanger people\u2019s dwindling privacy options, and they are likely to limit free speech and remove the ability for people to be anonymous online<\/h4>\n\n
\n