Office of Personnel Management<\/a>]<\/p>\n\n\nValerie Bock<\/strong> of VCB Consulting said, \u201cWe will learn how to secure our critical infrastructure, and in the meantime we are learning how to hold consumers harmless for the breaches that occur within our current systems. The benefits of being able to loan an e-book to a new friend instantaneously to keep a conversation going, the ability to shop the world for things there is only a small market for, the ability to transfer value at low cost, and the ability to access the latest scientific information, all offer powerful ways to connect people to one another and hence enhance trust.\u201d<\/p>\n\nNobody expects perfection, but many expect that despite \u201cbumps along the way\u201d the online experience will remain mostly positive.<\/p>\n\n
An anonymous associate professor and director of a university center for policy informatics<\/strong> replied, \u201cNot only will trust be strengthened, it will be the expectation of interactions. Many people will probably have at least one negative interaction with sharing their information online; it will be important that the biggest brokers and legislators create a culture of trust as stability (similar to the government insuring banks or credit cards ensuring that you will never pay for a fraudulent transaction).\u201d<\/p>\n\nTwenty years ago the web was really the Wild West. You never knew what to trust. Now there are largely trusted intermediaries like Google and Mozilla that block or identify many threats. This trend will strengthen over the coming decade.Anonymous respondent<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\nAn anonymous software engineer<\/strong> commented, \u201cWe\u2019re just at the beginning of the use of online systems for commerce and banking globally. The system already works as well online as it does offline. There will be bumps along the way, but overall it will be mostly positive for buyers and sellers. Economic activity will be foremost, but education and health care will also benefit. However, the impact on political and civic life will be mostly to drive information bubbles and foster divisiveness.\u201d<\/p>\n\n[Internet of Things]<\/p>\n\n\n
An anonymous open source technologist<\/strong> observed, \u201cThe emergence of companies like Amazon, Google and Apple is indicative of the great trust people already place in these organizations and the online world. This will grow as better governance, systems and software take hold.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> said, \u201cTwenty years ago the web was really the Wild West. You never knew what to trust. Now there are largely trusted intermediaries like Google and Mozilla that block or identify many threats. This trend will strengthen over the coming decade.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAdam Nelson<\/strong>, chief technology officer at Factr, predicted, \u201cEconomic activity will become much more efficient and secure. Keep in mind that the \u2018analog\u2019 economy with cash is also encumbered by theft and fraud. These won\u2019t go away but the frequency will be lessened. Government\/public oversight will be higher, though.\u201d<\/p>\n\nDan York<\/strong>, senior content strategist at the Internet Society, is encouraged by technological advances but warned against stringent regulation, writing, \u201cI hope trust will be strengthened, but I fear that if we don\u2019t do anything about it, trust will be diminished. Trust will probably be diminished over the next 2-5 years, but after that I hope it will be strengthened, as technologies and policies get adopted that raise the level of trust. So my answer for 10 years out is different from five years out. We are seeing an erosion of trust right now as more and more data breaches happen, more and more surveillance happens, and more and more security vulnerabilities happen. There are ways to make that trust stronger, some of them technical, some of them policy \u2013 and I believe we must<\/em> implement these tools …. I\u2019d give about even odds as to whether those things will happen. The impact of diminished trust could be strongest on economic activity. It could also cause governments to want to \u2018take action to protect citizens\u2019 that could result in the imposition of harsh legislation or the further fragmentation of the internet. This could lessen the opportunities available to all.\u201d<\/p>\n\nDemian Perry<\/strong>, director of mobile at NPR, noted that he already sees tech improvements that might enable trust in his business. \u201cThe reality is that online transactions are now far safer than traditional transactions and they will only become more so,\u201d he commented. \u201cMy credit card has been stolen multiple times in the past two years, all as a result of security holes at brick-and-mortar point of sale that would have been avoided had I made the transaction online. In just one example of how online transactions are so much more secure, we are now working with our member stations to implement a donation method that will effectively authorize a new credit card for each transaction and immediately destroy that card after the transaction. In the short moment when the card is active, it will have a credit limit that is very close to the intended donation amount. And as we continue to improve the security of online transactions with advances like this one, consumers will become increasingly confident in their online purchases.\u201d<\/p>\n\nOne anonymous respondent<\/strong> spoke in support of the types of online \u201cneighborhood watch\u201d that are expanding to allow netizens to report violations: \u201cProviders of social media, retail, information, games, etc. will provide as safe an environment as possible to conduct these activities, otherwise they\u2019ll lose users. As far as interpersonal correspondences go, trusting someone online will come with the same perils as real life. Stalkers stalk, whether online or off. Abusers abuse, whether online or off. But online reporting is quickly becoming more reliable than law enforcement. It\u2019s easier to get someone banned for stalking online than to get a restraining order from law enforcement. That will go a long way toward building trust in social interactions. If someone becomes abusive or stalker-ish, report them and they disappear.\u201d<\/p>\n\n[Two,]<\/p>\n\n\n
David Williams<\/strong>, who chose not to share any additional identifying information, replied, \u201cAs folks gradually shift more of their life online (and they age into a more pure online world), trust will naturally increase and breaches of that trust will be seen as the cost of living in this century rather than the last. Encryption that promises to remain strong in light of advances in quantum computing will be more important. The challenge to cellphone dominance will likely remain in the transactions that require more screen real estate than anyone is willing to carry in their pocket. There will continue to be efforts to simplify everything down to cellphone-sized chunks, which will reduce the value of some of the current offerings. Technology will continue to evolve to gain and hold that trust, and malicious folks will continue to find ways to abuse it. On the whole, I expect the malicious folks will be gradually diminished in their abilities to leverage purely technological attacks.\u201d<\/p>\n\nNick Tredennick<\/strong>, a technology analyst, said, \u201cHistorically, net contributions are positive, so adding more people and more interactions will bring greater trust capabilities to interactions.\u201d<\/p>\n\nA number of respondents shared their opinions regarding which particular aspects of online interaction might be trusted most in 2026.<\/p>\n\n
Ray Schroeder<\/strong>, associate vice chancellor for online learning at the University of Illinois, Springfield, observed, \u201cOnline interactions will become the default norm; it will be as comfortable and considered as reliable as a visit to the bank in the 1980s; an in-person visit to a doctor in the 1990s; or an in-person purchase at a grocery store in the first decade of the 21st century. Elections will be conducted online, resulting in greater participation and a more complete canvassing of the public.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous respondent<\/strong> predicted, \u201cTrust in online banking will go down. Trust in health care will be negative and positive. Health care is very much in the dark ages when it comes to online security, record keeping and HIPAA protection. Most doctors and nurses don\u2019t have much skill when it comes to using computers and many are actively dragging their feet on implementing changes. Also, insurance companies deliberately make things more difficult and time-consuming to enter and they use confusing and outdated computer programs and databases that are not user-friendly. From personal experience, I know they deliberately discourage startups from using their data to get better pricing for services and medicines or from making things more user-friendly. Even federally mandated data is unavailable except for in a badly physically printed stack of paper in tiny print for thousands of dollars and by the time it\u2019s made available, all the prices have changed. Trust in cultural life \u2013 opportunities have improved, but people get locked into social platforms that make certain kinds of social interaction harder (I\u2019m looking at you, Facebook). In regard to blockchain systems, accountability might help prevent \u2018griefing\u2019 in certain online social contexts, as long as the blockchain is used as an introduction of sorts.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous managing director<\/strong> predicted, \u201cCommercial applications will grow faster; government applications for trust (health care, education) will take a while. This requires transformations of whole sectors, which is a slow and tedious process.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> commented, \u201cHealth care and education should see the greatest positive impact, but the former and economic activity raise significant security risks. In addition, the latest popular app, \u2018Pokemon Go,\u2019 shows how criminals are learning how to manipulate even cultural\/societal types of engagements.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAnother anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> commented, \u201cTrust in social media will decline, but trust in services such as banking and shopping will increase.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous technical operations lead<\/strong> said, \u201cEconomic<\/em> \u2013 Obviously, we will have more of the economy be purely virtual, such as purchasing in-game virtual items. Right now, this is the all-or-nothing \u2018give us your credit card,\u2019 but there will be many more fine-grained ways of buying things in the future. Health care<\/em> \u2013 Ideally, there would be a standard way of noting your health, and it would be stored\/owned by you. (Instead of health records being \u2018owned\u2019 by companies providing care, and transfer of records being a \u2018value-add\u2019 service that costs more.) We could even have people do \u2018research\u2019 by asking a question that queries everyone\u2019s records, but doesn\u2019t expose any individual data. Politics<\/em> \u2013 I hope we have reached peak indifference and in the future politicians will be held to a higher standard instead of a lower one.\u201d<\/p>\n\nStephen Schultz<\/strong>, who chose not to share any additional identifying information, wrote, \u201cPayment systems via smartphone will become as common as consumer credit within the next four years, and, with it, public trust in those systems. Also, I see the principles of encryption becoming common knowledge in the near but indeterminate future and with it, an increase in public trust generalized to any system transmitting or retaining personal information. I don\u2019t feel nearly as confident making any such predictions for medical care and personal medical histories. In smaller nation-states, especially those with single-payer medical care, the implementation of a portable, accessible personal medical record is already within reach. At the other extreme (i.e., the U.S.), there are some startups with a mission to achieve the same thing (e.g., Ohio-based CrossChx), but I imagine it would have to be some kind of open standard in order to work, and that process will almost certainly take several years.\u201d<\/p>\n\nSome of these experts argued that there is a special pressure on civic systems to build trust in an increasingly challenging media environment. An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> who works in the government wrote, \u201cMost-affected will be political and civic life. Trust is a function of knowledge and shared information and belief sets. As more facts become available, more trust is generated. As more opinions are disguised as facts, less trust and more polarization will occur.\u201d And an anonymous systems manager<\/strong> commented, \u201cTrust will go up if and only if advocates for open systems and transparency inherent in civic big data can continue their work.\u201d<\/p>\n\nOne anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> warned that currently emerging applications that gauge user behaviors will be applied, writing, \u201cTrust will be strengthened, but through perceptual and behavioral manipulation rather than stronger security infrastructure or realistic comparative outcomes. Technologies\u2019 ability to manipulate behavior is outstripping humans\u2019 ability to react in the time scales involved. Some people will take advantage of that.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous process manager<\/strong> said that blame for problems is regularly misplaced, observing, \u201cMost people don\u2019t think about their trust in terms of systems. Even those whose identity has been stolen or data breached only develop anger toward the group immediately responsible for the loss \u2013 they\u2019re mad at Target, or PlayStation, or whoever. They are not mad at the infrastructure. Most people turn their anger on the \u2018bad driver\u2019 who caused an accident, not the road builder who designed a blind turn in a busy area.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous respondent<\/strong> predicted, \u201cThe market will continue to improve in ways to build societal trust, but I would not be at all surprised to find these efforts derailed by economic catastrophe in the very near future, from which a more trustworthy internet may potentially arise.\u201d<\/p>\n\nSubtheme: The younger generation and people whose lives rely on technology the most are the vanguard of those who most actively use it, and these groups will grow larger<\/h4>\n\n
Many respondents observed that younger generations and those who feel they must rely upon it to stay competitive have historically been the most likely to put trust in technology. An anonymous research officer<\/strong> said, \u201cThis is purely a demographic issue. Distrust of technology skews toward the older sections of society so, by necessity, trust will grow as time passes. Trust could be further amplified by companies improving efforts to ensure digital security and avoid fraud.\u201d<\/p>\n\nConvenience will outweigh distrust, and today\u2019s 10-year-olds will have grown up with the same easy familiarity with blockchain and algorithmic identity their parents did with DVD and cellphones and their grandparents did with TV, jet travel and automobiles.”Dave Howell<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\nUta Russmann<\/strong>, communications professor at the FHWien University of Applied Sciences in Vienna, said, \u201cPeople\u2019s trust will be strengthened over the next 10 years, as most of the people who are shopping, banking, etc., will have been socialized and educated within the online world.\u201d<\/p>\n\nAn anonymous professor at a state university<\/strong> noted, \u201cTrust will be strengthened mainly because people will become used to using these tools daily for these functions. Twenty miles an hour was once considered a dangerous speed for human travel.\u201d<\/p>\n\n[it]<\/p>\n\n\n
An anonymous<\/strong> respondent<\/strong> commented, \u201cThis strengthened trust is a matter of generational replacement. Children today won\u2019t even consider that there\u2019s an alternate way of conducting business.\u201d<\/p>\n\n[trust]<\/p>\n\n\n
An anonymous assistant professor at a state university<\/strong> wrote, \u201cTrust will be strengthened … I expect information security will improve, on the whole. Further, I imagine younger generations are and will be more comfortable with sharing information \u2013 including sensitive information \u2013 online. I expect, for instance, that most voting will eventually move online, and that more health care discussions between doctors and patients will move online. I think, for the most part, these are positive changes, though there is probably some negative consequence to diminished in-person contact.\u201d<\/p>\n\nMany said they expect that online interaction will become so normalized that trust might not be figured into many people\u2019s decision-making when it comes to such actions. Some see it as a sort of implicit trust.<\/p>\n\n
David Morar<\/strong>, a doctoral student and Google policy fellow at George Mason University, replied, \u201cSocietal understanding and acceptance of online interactions and of mobile devices as an important pillar in human life will only grow into the future. The fact that these tools can also be used for horrible things should not and will not completely overshadow the potential benefits of using these tools in more aspects of life. One example of this is the near-mainstream appeal of online and mobile dating. Once seen as a place reserved for \u2018creeps\u2019 and \u2018deviants,\u2019 online dating is now as normal as making dinner reservations online through an app. This shows that social norms change, adapt and expand (or not) in a constant back-and-forth with technology. A serious educational endeavor will be desperately needed in the near future in order to help citizens evolve their current understanding of fundamentals such as privacy, security and the limits of the tools being used.\u201d<\/p>\n\nMegan Browndorf<\/strong>, a staff member at Towson University, said, \u201cCrime will increase. Accidental use and misuse will increase. But that is simply a matter of opportunity and numbers. Overall, we will see the development of the internet as a space \u2026. Individuals will become more used to existing on the internet: working, and being and communicating there. And that is enough to build trust. In the next decade, as the number of adults who do not remember a time before the internet grows and the number of individuals with familiarity with the internet grows, it will become a trusted fact of life.\u201d<\/p>\n\nGlen Thomas<\/strong>, a head of computing in an educational setting, commented, \u201cMy students do not care for online security, so there is implicit trust throughout the younger generation. They just want the features and companies and governments can do what they wish with their data. There will be issues when bulk medical data makes its way to employers and insurance companies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n[be]<\/p>\n\n\n
Anonymous respondents <\/strong>also commented:<\/p>\n\n\n- \u201cMost of the people who don\u2019t trust the tech are older. As they die off, younger folks who mostly don\u2019t think about privacy and security become a larger portion of the consumer base of those devices.\u201d<\/li>\n
- \u201cFor young users it will be second-nature and seamless.\u201d<\/li>\n
- \u201cAs younger generations who have grown up with technology get older, you will see increased trust in online interactions \u2013 whether or not that trust is deserved \u2013 because of a high level of complacency.\u201d<\/li>\n
- \u201cGenerations are coming online who know nothing else. Nostalgia for old methods will die off.\u201d<\/li>\n
- \u201cTrust will remain the same, but the penetration and use will grow as it becomes more commonplace and the generations who either never used the internet or were just present for its birth will give way to people who have never known life without it.\u201d<\/li>\n
- \u201cApps and the mobile web are still often clunky or not as useful as doing some things in person. People will gravitate to whatever is easiest, cheapest and most reliable. When state and local government services are reliably operating on apps and the mobile web, people will use them there.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
There were several strong dissenters, though, to the notion that the successor generation will be a vanguard.<\/p>\n\n
For instance, an anonymous senior technology architect at a Canadian telecommunications provider<\/strong> commented, \u201cIf there is a significant change in the perceived trust people are willing to give, it will be incremental at best. In large part I expect this because, if anything, the generation coming up now has even less reason to trust the internet than the older generation does. Their day-to-day experience is of friends having accounts hacked, of having personal information leaked, of large organizations and governments being compromised. There will be no basis for them to believe that access to their health records online or paying with their phone is natively more secure than it was. That doesn\u2019t mean they won\u2019t do it. You may see greater adoption rates, but people may also partition themselves and their transactions in other ways. It will require a sea change in the IT industry to significantly improve security. Privacy can\u2019t be expected to improve without this change, although an improvement in privacy is not a given. The status quo is a state of nearly constant compromise, which is more or less what we have now. Sadly, increased surveillance is almost easier to implement than this improvement in security. More than that, it\u2019s easier to comprehend. There is a net downside to adding monitoring, although improvements in detection and response to breaches may appear to outweigh it.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A plurality of respondents expect participation in online interactions to grow in the next decade. They cited a variety of reasons, including 1) continued improvement of global security and personal privacy in technical systems, as well as civic and industry support for social strategies, that will in turn build trust; and 2) people\u2019s increased capacity 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Fate of Online Trust in the Next Decade","slug":"the-fate-of-online-trust-in-the-next-decade","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/08\/10\/the-fate-of-online-trust-in-the-next-decade\/","is_active":false},{"id":93507,"title":"About this canvassing of experts","slug":"future-of-online-trust-about-this-canvassing-of-experts","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/08\/10\/future-of-online-trust-about-this-canvassing-of-experts\/","is_active":false},{"id":93540,"title":"Theme 1: Trust will strengthen because systems will improve and people will adapt to them and more broadly embrace them","slug":"theme-1-trust-will-strengthen-because-systems-will-improve-and-people-will-adapt-to-them-and-more-broadly-embrace-them","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/08\/10\/theme-1-trust-will-strengthen-because-systems-will-improve-and-people-will-adapt-to-them-and-more-broadly-embrace-them\/","is_active":true},{"id":93532,"title":"Theme 2: The nature of trust will become more fluid as technology embeds itself into human and organizational relationships","slug":"theme-2-the-nature-of-trust-will-become-more-fluid-as-technology-embeds-itself-into-human-and-organizational-relationships","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/08\/10\/theme-2-the-nature-of-trust-will-become-more-fluid-as-technology-embeds-itself-into-human-and-organizational-relationships\/","is_active":false},{"id":97615,"title":"Theme 3: Trust will not grow, but technology usage will continue to rise as a \u2018new normal\u2019 sets in","slug":"theme-3-trust-will-not-grow-but-technology-usage-will-continue-to-rise-as-a-new-normal-sets-in","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/08\/10\/theme-3-trust-will-not-grow-but-technology-usage-will-continue-to-rise-as-a-new-normal-sets-in\/","is_active":false},{"id":93547,"title":"Theme 4: Some say blockchain could help; some expect its value might be limited","slug":"theme-4-some-say-blockchain-could-help-some-expect-its-value-might-be-limited","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/08\/10\/theme-4-some-say-blockchain-could-help-some-expect-its-value-might-be-limited\/","is_active":false},{"id":93554,"title":"Theme 5: The less-than-satisfying current situation will not change much in the next decade","slug":"theme-5-the-less-than-satisfying-current-situation-will-not-change-much-in-the-next-decade","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2017\/08\/10\/theme-5-the-less-than-satisfying-current-situation-will-not-change-much-in-the-next-decade\/","is_active":false},{"id":93516,"title":"Theme 6: Trust will diminish because the internet is not secure and powerful forces threaten individuals\u2019 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