{"id":73433,"date":"2011-12-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-12-16T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2011\/12\/16\/religion-and-the-gop-nomination-race-december-update\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T04:10:06","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T09:10:06","slug":"religion-and-the-gop-nomination-race-december-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2011\/12\/16\/religion-and-the-gop-nomination-race-december-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Religion and the GOP Nomination Race: December Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new survey<\/a> by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that Newt Gingrich currently holds a 35% to 21% lead over Mitt Romney among Republican and Republican-leaning voters who say they are very likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses. Gingrich leads Romney by an even larger 25-point margin among white evangelical GOP voters who say they are very likely to vote in the primaries (35% to 10%). Among white mainline Protestants likely to vote in the upcoming primaries and caucuses, 40% express support for Gingrich, compared with 23% who support Romney.<\/p>\n\n

\"goprace-1(2)\"<\/figure>\n\n
\"goprace-2\"<\/figure>\n\n
<\/div>\n\n

The new survey, conducted Dec. 7-11, also shows that clear majorities of likely GOP primary voters say there is at least a chance they would vote for either Gingrich or Romney in Republican primaries in their state. None of the other GOP candidates draw nearly as much potential support.<\/p>\n\n

Among white evangelicals likely to participate in the primaries and caucuses, two-thirds (67%) say either that they support Gingrich (35%) or that there is at least a chance they would vote for him if their preferred candidate were not in the race (32%). About half of white evangelicals (51%) say they support Romney (10%) or that there is a chance they would vote for him (41%). With a sample size of 147 white evangelicals who say they are very likely to vote in the upcoming primaries, the difference between the 67% who say there is a chance they would vote for Gingrich and the 51% who say there is a chance they would vote for Romney does not reach the level of statistical significance.<\/p>\n\n

Among white mainline Protestants, seven-in-ten say they either support Gingrich (40%) or that they would consider voting for him (30%). Roughly the same percentage say they are open to voting for Romney; 23% currently support him, 40% prefer another candidate but say there is a chance they would vote for Romney. (The survey included too few interviews with members of other religious groups who are also Republican and Republican-leaning likely primary voters to permit analysis of their preferences.)<\/p>\n\n

Campaign Developments Since November<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\n

\"goprace-3\"<\/figure>\n<\/p>\n\n

The impact of recent developments in the campaign, including Herman Cain\u2019s suspension of his candidacy, can be seen by comparing the nomination preferences of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters interviewed in December with those interviewed in mid-November<\/a>. (The mid-November poll did not have a question identifying likely primary voters.) Support for Gingrich has doubled over the past month among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, from 16% in mid-November to 33% in the current survey. Gingrich is the only candidate who has seen his support rise significantly over the past month.<\/p>\n\n

White evangelical Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters now support Gingrich over Romney by a three-to-one margin (32% to 11%), with Romney generating about as much support as Ron Paul (10%) and Michele Bachmann (8%). This is in stark contrast with mid-November — while Cain was still in the race — when evangelicals supported Gingrich and Romney in roughly equal numbers (19% and 17%, respectively).<\/p>\n\n

Among white mainline Protestant Republican registered voters, 42% say Gingrich is their preferred candidate, compared with 20% who support Romney. In mid-November, Romney lead the other candidates among this group.<\/p>\n\n

For a complete discussion of the survey\u2019s findings, see <\/em>\u201cGingrich Leads, But Likely GOP Primary Voters Have Not Ruled Out Romney: Tepid Support for Both Leading Candidates.\u201d<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n

Photo Credits: Getty Images<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Newt Gingrich currently holds a 35% to 21% lead over Mitt Romney among Republican and Republican-leaning voters who say they are very likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses, and his lead is even larger among white evangelical GOP 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