{"id":70301,"date":"2022-09-13T09:50:03","date_gmt":"2022-09-13T14:50:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/"},"modified":"2024-07-18T17:08:25","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T21:08:25","slug":"how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/","title":{"rendered":"1. How U.S. religious composition has changed in recent decades"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only a few decades ago, a Christian identity was so common among Americans that it could almost be taken for granted. As recently as the early 1990s, about 90% of U.S. adults identified as Christians. But today, about two-thirds of adults are Christians.[6. numoffset=&#8221;6&#8243; This chapter focuses on results of public opinion surveys of U.S. adults. Most other population shares presented in this report are estimates for Americans of all ages. See <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-methodology\/\">Methodology<\/a> for details on estimating the religious affiliations of children.] The change in America\u2019s religious composition is largely the result of large numbers of adults switching out of the religion in which they were raised to become religiously unaffiliated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, a steadily shrinking share of young adults who were raised Christian (in childhood) have retained their religious identity in adulthood over the past 30 years. At the same time, having no religious affiliation has become \u201cstickier\u201d: A declining percentage of people raised without a religion have converted or taken on a religion later in life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While religious switching is the focus of this report, other demographic forces that can cause religious change \u2013 transmission, migration, fertility and mortality \u2013 will be briefly discussed in the second half of this chapter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-420-wide\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/pf_2022-09-13_religious-projections_01-01-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f5f4f4\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f5f4f4;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-01.png?resize=480,889 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-01.png?resize=782,1449 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-01.png?resize=840,1556 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"778\" width=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-01.png?w=553\" alt=\"Chart shows the rise of religious \u2018nones\u2019 looks similar in data from Pew Research Center and the General Social Survey\" class=\"wp-image-81635 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Switching gained significant momentum in the 1990s, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/gss.norc.org\/\">General Social Survey<\/a> (GSS) \u2013 a large, nationally representative survey that has consistent data on religious affiliation going back several decades. In 1972, when the GSS first began asking Americans, \u201cWhat is your religious preference?\u201d 90% identified as Christian and 5% were religiously unaffiliated. In the next two decades, the share of \u201cnones\u201d crept up slowly, reaching 9% in 1993. But then disaffiliation started speeding up \u2013 in 1996, the share of unaffiliated Americans jumped to 12%, and two years later it was 14%. This growth has continued, and 29% of Americans now tell the GSS they have \u201cno religion.\u201d[7. Prior to 2020, the General Social Survey (GSS) was conducted primarily through face-to-face interviews. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020 and 2021, the GSS gathered panel and cross-sectional survey data primarily online. Since most data for the cross-sectional survey was collected in 2021, NORC now describes the cross-sectional survey data as the 2021 GSS (see page 4 of the <a href=\"https:\/\/gss.norc.org\/Documents\/codebook\/GSS%202021%20Codebook.pdf\">codebook<\/a> for the latest GSS data). The change in the \u201cmode\u201d of survey administration was concomitant with the GSS finding a rise in religious \u201cnones\u201d from 23% in 2018 to 29% in 2021 and a corresponding drop in the share of U.S. adults who identified as Christian from 72% to 64%. Some of the change in the GSS between 2018 and 2021 may be due to this \u201cmode effect.\u201d For a basic explanation of mode effects, see Pew Research Center\u2019s video \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2019\/02\/07\/methods-101-mode-effects\/\">Methods 101: Mode Effects.<\/a>\u201d For more details on the GSS data used in this report, see the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-methodology\/\">Methodology<\/a>.] <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pew Research Center has been measuring religious identity since 2007 using a slightly different question wording \u2013 \u201cWhat is your present religion, if any?\u201d \u2013 as well as a different set of response options. Since 2007, the percentage of adults who say they are atheist, agnostic or \u201cnothing in particular\u201d in the Center\u2019s surveys has grown from 16% to 29%. During this time, the share of U.S. adults who identify as Christian has fallen from 78% to 63%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are many theories on why disaffiliation sped up so much in the 1990s and how long this trend might continue. For example, some scholars contend that secularization is the result of increasing \u201cexistential security\u201d \u2013 as societal conditions improve and scientific advances allow people to live longer lives with fewer worries about meeting basic needs, they have less need for religion to cope with insecurity (or so the theory goes).[8. Norris, Pippa, and Ronald Inglehart. 2011. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/books\/sacred-and-secular\/056FE6F6775E313545F664F63CC392F3\">Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide<\/a>.\u201d] Others say that in the U.S., an association of Christianity with conservative politics has <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1177\/1065912918771526\">driven many liberals<\/a> away from the faith. Still other theories involve <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2019\/11\/15\/americans-have-positive-views-about-religions-role-in-society-but-want-it-out-of-politics\/\">declining trust in religious institutions<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2019\/06\/11\/key-takeaways-about-how-americans-view-the-sexual-abuse-scandal-in-the-catholic-church\/\"> clergy scandals<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2016\/10\/26\/one-in-five-u-s-adults-were-raised-in-interfaith-homes\/\">rising rates of religious intermarriage<\/a>, smaller families, and so on. When asked, Americans give a <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2016\/08\/24\/why-americas-nones-left-religion-behind\/\">wide range of reasons for leaving religion behind<\/a>, Pew Research Center has found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;generational-snowball&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"generational-snowball\">Generational \u2018snowball\u2019<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/pf_2022-09-13_religious-projections_01-02-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f0e8e9\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f0e8e9;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-02.png?resize=480,923 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-02.png?resize=620,1192 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"596\" width=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-02.png?w=533\" alt=\"Chart shows Christian identity used to be \u2018stickier,\u2019 now unaffiliated identity is stickier\" class=\"wp-image-81631 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whatever the deeper causes, religious disaffiliation in the U.S. is being fueled by switching patterns that started \u201csnowballing\u201d from generation to generation in the 1990s. The core population of \u201cnones\u201d has an increasingly \u201csticky\u201d identity as it rolls forward, and it is gaining a lot more people than it is shedding, in a dynamic that has a kind of demographic momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Christians have experienced the opposite pattern. With each generation, progressively fewer adults retain the Christian identity they were raised with, which in turn means fewer parents are raising their children in Christian households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One way of gauging the momentum behind the U.S. switching trend is to look at the other side of the coin \u2013 the rate at which Americans retain the religion in which they were raised, as opposed to switching out. By studying retention patterns, researchers can determine whether a religious identity is becoming more or less sticky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Until recently, Christian identity was stickier than unaffiliated identity, which means that the share of people who remained Christian after being raised as Christians was greater than the share of people who remained unaffiliated after being raised with no religion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-420-wide\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/pf_2022-09-13_religious-projections_01-03-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f6f4f4\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f6f4f4;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-03.png?resize=480,933 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-03.png?resize=782,1519 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-03.png?resize=840,1632 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"816\" width=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-03.png?w=527\" alt=\"Chart shows young Americans are now less likely to become or remain Christian and more likely to become or remain unaffiliated\" class=\"wp-image-81613 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, Christianity still is the stickier affiliation for older Americans. But among younger adults, the unaffiliated identity has become the stickier one. Among people who are 40 and older, 80% of those raised as Christians are still Christian today, compared with just 56% of those who were raised unaffiliated (in childhood) and still do not identify with a religion today (in adulthood). However, among people in their 30s, only 66% of those raised Christian are still Christian today, compared with 73% of those raised unaffiliated who still are today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An analysis of GSS data by birth decade shows a similar pattern: Roughly 90% of people who were born in the 1960s and raised Christian were still Christian when they turned 30. Among those born in the 1970s, fewer than 85% remained Christian at 30. Among those born in the 1980s, it is about 80%. Too few of those born in the 1990s have turned 30 to estimate their switching patterns, but Christians in this youngest cohort appear to be disaffiliating even more than older cohorts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;Disaffiliation-among-older-adults&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Disaffiliation-among-older-adults\">Disaffiliation among older adults<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The \u201csnowballing\u201d dynamic is being driven by an acceleration in switching among young Christians \u2013 those ages 15 to 29. People under 30 tend to grapple with identities of all kinds, and young adulthood is often a time of major change, when many people leave their parents\u2019 household, start careers and form lasting romantic partnerships.<br><br>But there is a second dynamic that began in the 1990s that added a new layer of change:<br>Starting in the mid-1990s, it became more common for adults in middle age and beyond to discard Christian identity. Before that, changing religions after 30 was rare.<br><br>About 95% or more of people who were born prior to the 1940s and were raised Christian were still Christian from ages 30 to 65. But among those born in the \u201940s, \u201950s and \u201960s, there has been more substantial movement away from Christianity after age 30. For example, 91% of Americans born in the 1960s were still Christian at age 30, but 83% identify as Christian today. Recent switching among older U.S. adults may be the result of a period effect (when something about the environment affects people of all ages for a period of time, such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/topic\/coronavirus-disease-covid-19\/\">COVID-19 pandemic\u2019s<\/a> consequences for the mental and physical health of people of all ages). It might also be the result of a tipping point: Once Christians began to lose their overwhelming majority, people of all ages who had ties to Christianity \u2013 but did not attend church, pray often or see religion as an important part of their lives \u2013 may have begun to identify as unaffiliated in larger numbers. As \u201cnones\u201d grew in size and visibility, being unaffiliated may have <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2016\/01\/27\/faith-and-the-2016-campaign\/\">become more socially acceptable<\/a> in some circles, opening the floodgates to further disaffiliation.&nbsp;<br><br>While this pattern is new \u2013 and it is unclear how long it might last \u2013 it indicates that disaffiliation is extending into segments of the population that may have been unaffected in the past. (For more information about late-adult switching, see <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-appendix-b\/\">Appendix B<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;Education-politics-and-geography&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"Education-politics-and-geography\">Education, politics and geography tied to differences in religious switching<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A closer look at the characteristics of adults who have left Christianity and are now religiously unaffiliated indicates that other traits \u2013 such as age, gender, education, political identity and region of residence \u2013 also are tied to disaffiliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"age\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Age<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. adults who have moved away from Christianity are younger, on average, than those who have remained Christian after a Christian upbringing. More than a quarter of former Christians (27%) are under 30, compared with 14% of all adults who were raised Christian and remain Christian. This age pattern aligns with a decades-long trend in which each cohort of young adults is less religiously affiliated than the preceding one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"gender\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gender<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americans who have moved away from Christianity are more likely to be men, while women are more likely to retain their Christian identity. A slight majority of U.S. adults who were raised Christian and are now unaffiliated (54%) are male. Among people who have remained Christian, 57% are women.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"education\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Education<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People who have become unaffiliated after a Christian upbringing are a little more likely to have graduated college than those who remain Christian, with 35% and 31%, respectively, holding college degrees. This reflects a broader pattern: In the U.S., people with higher levels of educational attainment tend to be less religious by some traditional measures, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2017\/04\/26\/in-america-does-more-education-equal-less-religion\/\">how often they pray or attend religious services<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"politics\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Politics<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seven-in-ten adults who were raised Christian but are now unaffiliated are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, compared with 43% of those who remained Christian and 51% of U.S. adults overall. Some scholars argue that disaffiliation from Christianity is driven by an association between Christianity and political conservatism that has intensified in recent decades.[9. Some research indicates that Americans tend to develop firm, enduring political identities earlier than religious ones, and their political views may influence their religious beliefs more than the other way around. See Margolis, Michele. 2018. <a href=\"https:\/\/press.uchicago.edu\/ucp\/books\/book\/chicago\/F\/bo28246146.html\">\u201cFrom Politics to the Pews: How Partisanship and the Political Environment Shape Religious Identity.\u201d<\/a> In addition, some scholars assert that the rise of the \u201cnones\u201d since the 1990s is due in part to a reaction or \u201cbacklash\u201d following an increase in the visibility of the \u201creligious right\u201d and its conservative positions on polarizing issues. See Hout, Michael, and Claude S. Fischer. 2014. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sociologicalscience.com\/download\/volume%201\/october\/SocSci_v1_423to447.pdf\">Explaining Why More Americans Have No Religious Preference: Political Backlash and Generational Succession, 1987-2012<\/a>.\u201d Sociological Science.] <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 id=\"geography\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Geography<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People who have left Christianity are underrepresented in the South, where 33% of former Christians live, compared with 42% of people who have remained Christian and 38% of U.S. adults overall.[10. Regions are based on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www2.census.gov\/geo\/pdfs\/maps-data\/maps\/reference\/us_regdiv.pdf\">U.S. Census Bureau\u2019s definitions<\/a> of South, Northeast, Midwest and West.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those who have disaffiliated after being raised Christian are more likely than others to live in the West (28% live there, compared with 20% of those who remain Christian and 23% of all U.S. adults). Surveys often find that U.S. adults tend to be more religious, on a number of measures, <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2016\/02\/29\/how-religious-is-your-state\/?state=alabama\">in the South<\/a>, and less so in the West and Northeast. This may indicate that people adapt to the religious contexts in which they live and\/or sort themselves into like-minded communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;other-drivers-of-change&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"other-drivers-of-change\">Other drivers of change<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Switching is the primary, but by no means the only, process causing religious change in the U.S. Populations can grow or shrink through a few other mechanisms. Patterns of religious transmission, migration and fertility explain some of the shift in the religious landscape in recent decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"transmission\">Transmission<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The share of Christians is in decline partly because religion is not always transmitted by Christian parents to their children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the purposes of the projections in this report, religious identities are considered to be \u201ctransmitted\u201d when children are raised in their parents\u2019 religion and identify with it as early adolescents. There are a variety of reasons why children of religiously affiliated parents may be raised without a religion and, therefore, that religion is not transmitted. For example, a child may have parents without strong religious commitment, or parents with different religions, or parents who have decided to let children explore and make decisions about religion on their own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consider the hypothetical case of an adult survey respondent who says her mother was Christian, her father was Jewish, she was not raised in any religion, and she currently does not identify with any religion. A person like this has not <em>switched <\/em>religions, since switching is defined as leaving the religion in which one was raised. However, in this example, neither parent <em>transmitted<\/em> their religion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By the same token, not all unaffiliated parents transmit their identity. For example, a 14-year-old child of unaffiliated parents could acquire a Christian identity outside the parental home in various ways, such as from other family members, a teacher or a friend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this study, transmission rates are calculated based on the mother\u2019s religion because mothers tend to successfully transmit their religion more often than fathers do, and roughly a quarter of teens live in single-parent households, which are almost exclusively headed by mothers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/pf_2022-09-13_religious-projections_01-04-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"ececed\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #ececed;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-04.png?resize=480,482 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-04.png?resize=620,622 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"311\" width=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-04.png?w=620\" alt=\"Chart shows about one-in-six teenage children of Christian mothers do not share the faith\" class=\"wp-image-81611 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, transmission of the mother\u2019s religious identity happens in the vast majority of families. In a 2019 Pew Research Center <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2020\/09\/10\/u-s-teens-take-after-their-parents-religiously-attend-services-together-and-enjoy-family-rituals\/\">survey of teens and their parents<\/a>, an overwhelming majority of both Christian and unaffiliated mothers had transmitted their religious identities to their teenagers. More than eight-in-ten Christian mothers had Christian teens, while 17% of their teens identified as atheist, agnostic or \u201cnothing in particular,\u201d and less than 1% said they were members of another religious group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The teens of unaffiliated mothers show a similar pattern: 88% are unaffiliated themselves, 11% are Christians, and 1% identify with a non-Christian religion. The survey sample did not contain enough mothers who belong to non-Christian religions to report on their precise transmission rates, but their patterns seem broadly similar to those with Christian and unaffiliated mothers \u2013 the vast majority of teens raised by mothers of \u201cother religions\u201d also identify with a religion in this category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even though the shares of Christian and religiously unaffiliated mothers who transmit their affiliation (or lack thereof) are fairly similar, the impact of failed transmission in Christian families is far greater, numerically, because there are more than twice as many Christian mothers as unaffiliated ones. At these rates, and as long as Christians are the substantially larger group, many more people will adopt a religiously unaffiliated identity rather than a Christian one during childhood, which in turn increases the population share of the unaffiliated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"migration\">Migration<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/pf_2022-09-13_religious-projections_01-05-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"efefef\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #efefef;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-05.png?resize=480,418 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-05.png?resize=620,540 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"270\" width=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-05.png?w=620\" alt=\"Chart shows most U.S. immigrants are Christian\" class=\"wp-image-81610 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Migration contributes to U.S. religious change because the composition of immigrants and emigrants is not identical to that of the overall U.S. population.<br><br>About a million immigrants come to the U.S. each year, and <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/08\/20\/key-findings-about-u-s-immigrants\/\">one-in-seven people in the U.S. were born elsewhere<\/a>. In the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/hispanic\/2015\/09\/28\/modern-immigration-wave-brings-59-million-to-u-s-driving-population-growth-and-change-through-2065\/ph_2015-09-28_immigration-through-2065-22\/\">1990s and early 2000s<\/a>, the largest number of recent arrivals to the U.S. were from Mexico and other Christian-majority countries in Central and South America.<br><br>Today, new arrivals are more likely to come from Asia. In 2018, the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/08\/20\/key-findings-about-u-s-immigrants\/\">top country of origin<\/a> for new immigrants was China (which is majority unaffiliated), followed by India (which is majority Hindu). Most of the world\u2019s people who identify as religiously unaffiliated, Hindu, Buddhist, Sikh and Jain live in either China or India, and this is reflected in the changing profile of immigrants.<br><br>Christians still make up a majority of immigrants to the U.S., including a majority of immigrants from Mexico, the third-largest source of new immigrants in recent years. But the estimated share of new immigrants who are Christian (55%) is lower than the Christian share of the existing U.S population (64%), meaning that immigration is not boosting the Christian population share. The same is true of religiously unaffiliated people: 12% of new immigrants are estimated to be religiously unaffiliated, compared with 30% of the existing U.S. population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But immigration is leading to growth in the share of other religions like Hindus and Muslims \u2013 32% of new immigrants are estimated to be adherents of other religions (versus 6% of the U.S. population), according to recent data on the origin and size of migrant flows to the U.S. and an earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2012\/03\/Faithonthemove.pdf\">Pew Research Center analysis<\/a> of the typical religious composition of migrants from each country.[11. Recent and future migration flows are estimated based on the most recent five-year period with complete global migration data at the time of analysis (mid-2010 to mid-2015).] <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"fertility\">Fertility<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In countries with wide differences in fertility rates between religious groups, those differences can cause significant changes in religious composition over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recently, religiously unaffiliated women in the U.S. have tended to have fewer children than Christians and women of other religions. In this report\u2019s models, the average unaffiliated woman is expected to have 1.6 children in her lifetime, while the average Christian woman will have 1.9 children, and the average woman of other religions (an umbrella category that includes Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and many smaller groups) will have 2.0 children (see <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-methodology\/\">Methodology<\/a> for more details).<br><br>Since the U.S. has a very large population and mothers tend to transmit their religions to children, these small differences can add up to noticeable changes over time. However, higher fertility among Christians compared with the religiously unaffiliated has not been nearly enough to maintain the Christian share of the population, although it has slightly offset some of the impact of disaffiliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"age-structures-and-mortality\">Age structures and mortality<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-260-wide\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/pf_2022-09-13_religious-projections_01-06-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"efeff0\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #efeff0;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-06.png?resize=448,1352 448w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"785\" width=\"260\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_2022.09.13_religious-projections_01-06.png?w=339\" alt=\"Chart shows about half of Americans in their 20s are Christian, compared with over 80% of the oldest Americans\" class=\"wp-image-81607 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The youthfulness of religious groups has an impact on the future that is intertwined with fertility because young populations have higher shares of people who are in, or soon will enter, their reproductive years. In other words, they have more growth potential than older populations. If two groups have identical total fertility rates, the group with the younger age structure can grow more rapidly because of the population momentum produced by having a larger share of women of reproductive age. Young populations also tend to have a smaller share of people who die each year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Christians are older, on average, than the unaffiliated or people of non-Christian religions. The average U.S. Christian is 43, compared with an average age of 33 among the unaffiliated and 38 among people of other religions. More than 80% of Americans older than 75 are Christian, compared with roughly half of people in their prime childbearing years (ages 20 to 34), many of whom will transmit their religion to the next generation, if past patterns hold. More than 40% of Americans between 20 and 34 are religiously unaffiliated, compared with under 15% of the oldest Americans. These are among the reasons why religious \u201cnones\u201d are projected to grow as a share of the U.S. population even in the scenario with no further religious switching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Due to a lack of sufficient data on mortality differences between people in the three religious identity categories studied in this report, each group is assumed to have the same mortality patterns. In other words, for purposes of these projections, life expectancy is assumed to be similar among members of each group at a given age. It is also assumed to be rising over time, despite a dip caused by the coronavirus pandemic.[12. Due primarily to the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy decreased by 1.5 years between 2019 and 2020, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/data\/vsrr\/vsrr015-508.pdf\">according to the CDC<\/a>. This reduction is expected to be temporary, so unadjusted UN estimates were used in projections.] <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Only a few decades ago, a Christian identity was so common among Americans that it could almost be taken for granted. As recently as the early 1990s, about 90% of U.S. adults identified as Christians. But today, about two-thirds of adults are Christians.[6. numoffset=&#8221;6&#8243; This chapter focuses on results of public opinion surveys of U.S. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":581,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","relatedPosts":[],"reportMaterials":[],"multiSectionReport":[],"package_parts__enabled":false,"package_parts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":false,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[]},"categories":[179,169,406,174,160,195],"tags":[],"bylines":[],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"level_of_effort":[],"primary_audience":[],"information_type":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[458],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[],"research-teams":[517],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-70301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-christianity","category-non-religion-secularism","category-religious-characteristics-of-demographic-groups","category-religious-demographics","category-religious-identity-affiliation","category-religiously-unaffiliated","formats-report","research-teams-religion"],"label":false,"post_parent":70285,"word_count":3209,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/","art_direction":{"A1":{"id":181884,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png?w=564&h=317&crop=1","width":564,"height":317,"caption":"(Nicholas Smith\/Getty Images)\n","chartArt":false},"A2":{"id":181884,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"caption":"(Nicholas Smith\/Getty Images)\n","chartArt":false},"A3":{"id":181884,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png?w=194&h=110&crop=1","width":194,"height":110,"caption":"(Nicholas Smith\/Getty Images)\n","chartArt":false},"A4":{"id":181884,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"caption":"(Nicholas Smith\/Getty Images)\n","chartArt":false},"XL":{"id":181884,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png?w=720&h=405&crop=1","width":720,"height":405,"caption":"(Nicholas Smith\/Getty Images)\n","chartArt":false},"social":{"id":181884,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/PF_22.07.15_projections_featured.png?w=1200&h=628&crop=1","width":1200,"height":628,"caption":"(Nicholas Smith\/Getty Images)\n","chartArt":false}},"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[{"id":70285,"title":"Modeling the Future of Religion in America","slug":"modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america\/","is_active":false},{"id":70301,"title":"1. How U.S. religious composition has changed in recent decades","slug":"how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/","is_active":true},{"id":70292,"title":"2. Projecting U.S. religious groups\u2019 population shares by 2070","slug":"projecting-u-s-religious-groups-population-shares-by-2070","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/projecting-u-s-religious-groups-population-shares-by-2070\/","is_active":false},{"id":70316,"title":"Acknowledgments","slug":"religious-projections-acknowledgments","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-acknowledgments\/","is_active":false},{"id":70278,"title":"Methodology","slug":"religious-projections-methodology-2","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-methodology-2\/","is_active":false},{"id":70310,"title":"Appendix A: Sources of religion data","slug":"religious-projections-appendix-a","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-appendix-a\/","is_active":false},{"id":70304,"title":"Appendix B: Supplemental analyses","slug":"religious-projections-appendix-b","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-appendix-b\/","is_active":false}],"report_materials":[{"key":"_3dlq9zx3d","type":"report","attachmentId":81514,"url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2022\/09\/US-Religious-Projections_FOR-PRODUCTION-9.13.22.pdf","label":"","icon":""}],"report_pagination":{"current_post":{"id":70301,"title":"1. How U.S. religious composition has changed in recent decades","slug":"how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/","is_active":true,"page_num":2},"next_post":{"id":70292,"title":"2. Projecting U.S. religious groups\u2019 population shares by 2070","slug":"projecting-u-s-religious-groups-population-shares-by-2070","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/projecting-u-s-religious-groups-population-shares-by-2070\/","is_active":false,"page_num":3},"previous_post":{"id":70285,"title":"Modeling the Future of Religion in America","slug":"modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america\/","is_active":false,"page_num":1},"pagination_items":[{"id":70285,"title":"Modeling the Future of Religion in America","slug":"modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america\/","is_active":false,"page_num":1},{"id":70301,"title":"1. How U.S. religious composition has changed in recent decades","slug":"how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades\/","is_active":true,"page_num":2},{"id":70292,"title":"2. Projecting U.S. religious groups\u2019 population shares by 2070","slug":"projecting-u-s-religious-groups-population-shares-by-2070","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/projecting-u-s-religious-groups-population-shares-by-2070\/","is_active":false,"page_num":3},{"id":70316,"title":"Acknowledgments","slug":"religious-projections-acknowledgments","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-acknowledgments\/","is_active":false,"page_num":4},{"id":70278,"title":"Methodology","slug":"religious-projections-methodology-2","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-methodology-2\/","is_active":false,"page_num":5},{"id":70310,"title":"Appendix A: Sources of religion data","slug":"religious-projections-appendix-a","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-appendix-a\/","is_active":false,"page_num":6},{"id":70304,"title":"Appendix B: Supplemental analyses","slug":"religious-projections-appendix-b","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/religion\/2022\/09\/13\/religious-projections-appendix-b\/","is_active":false,"page_num":7}]},"parent_info":{"parent_title":"Modeling the Future of Religion in America","parent_id":70285},"materialsOrdered":[],"chaptersOrdered":[],"partsOrdered":[],"partsEnabled":false,"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"How U.S. religious composition has changed in recent decades","description":"Only a few decades ago, a Christian identity was so common among Americans that it could almost be taken for granted. 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