{"id":62974,"date":"2012-11-14T14:01:01","date_gmt":"2012-11-14T19:01:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2012\/11\/14\/an-awakened-giant-the-hispanic-electorate-is-likely-to-double-by-2030\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T04:14:54","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T09:14:54","slug":"an-awakened-giant-the-hispanic-electorate-is-likely-to-double-by-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/race-and-ethnicity\/2012\/11\/14\/an-awakened-giant-the-hispanic-electorate-is-likely-to-double-by-2030\/","title":{"rendered":"An Awakened Giant: The Hispanic Electorate is Likely to Double by 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The record number[1. According to the National Election Pool national exit poll, 10% of all voters in 2012 were Hispanic. And according to media reports and election turnout experts, an estimated 125 million votes were cast in 2012. However, the resulting estimate of 12.5 million Hispanics voters should be treated with caution. If history is a guide, it will likely differ\u2014possibly substantially\u2014with the demographic breakdown of the vote that will be reported next spring based on data drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau\u2019s 2012 November Current Population Survey (CPS), conducted after the presidential election. For example, in 2008, according to the National Exit Pool national exit poll, 9% of voters were Hispanic. But according to the 2008 November CPS, 7.4% of voters were Hispanic (Lopez and Taylor, 2009<\/a>). If the gap in the Hispanic share between the National Exit Pool national exit poll and the CPS is as large as in 2012 as it was in 2008, the number of Hispanic voters could range from a low of 10.5 million to a high of 12.5 million.]\u00a0of Latinos who cast ballots for president this year are the leading edge of an ascendant ethnic voting bloc that is likely to double in size within a generation, according to a Pew Hispanic Center analysis based on U.S. Census Bureau data, Election Day exit polls and a new nationwide survey of Hispanic immigrants.<\/p>\n\n

The nation\u2019s 53 million Hispanics comprise 17% of the total U.S. population but just 10% of all voters this year, according to the national exit poll. To borrow a boxing metaphor, they still \u201cpunch below their weight.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

However, their share of the electorate will rise quickly for several reasons. The most important is that Hispanics are by far the nation\u2019s youngest ethnic group. Their median age is 27 years\u2014and just 18 years among native-born Hispanics\u2014compared with 42 years for that of white non-Hispanics. In the coming decades, their share of the age-eligible electorate will rise markedly through generational replacement alone.<\/p>\n\n

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According to Pew Hispanic Center projections, Hispanics will account for 40% of the growth in the eligible electorate in the U.S. between now and 2030, at which time 40 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote, up from 23.7 million now.[2. This projection is based on assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, and immigration. The projections subdivide the population by age, sex, race\/Hispanic origin and generation (foreign-born, U.S.-born with immigrant parent(s) and U.S.-born with native parents). See Passel and Cohn (2008<\/a>) for details on methodology and assumptions. The figures cited here are from the \u201cmiddle\u201d projection which assumes slight increases in immigration levels through 2030. The future voting-eligible population includes the U.S.-born population ages 18 and older plus the foreign-born population ages 18 and over who have become U.S. citizens by naturalization. The estimates of naturalized citizens in the future are based on extrapolation of trends in naturalization rates by race\/Hispanic origin observed for 1995-2010.]<\/p>\n\n

Moreover, if Hispanics\u2019 relatively low voter participation rates and naturalization rates were to increase to the levels of other groups, the number of votes that Hispanics actually cast in future elections could double within two decades.<\/p>\n\n

If the national exit poll\u2019s estimate proves correct that 10% of all voters this year were Hispanic, it would mean that as many as 12.5 million Hispanics cast ballots. But perhaps a more illuminating way to analyze the distinctive characteristics of the Hispanic electorate\u2014current and future\u2014is to parse the more than 40 million Hispanics in the United States who did not vote or were not eligible to vote in 2012. That universe can be broken down as follows:<\/p>\n\n

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