{"id":56605,"date":"2012-03-14T17:51:34","date_gmt":"2012-03-14T22:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2012\/03\/14\/section-1-the-gop-primary\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:50:36","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:50:36","slug":"section-1-the-gop-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/03\/14\/section-1-the-gop-primary\/","title":{"rendered":"Section 1: The GOP Primary"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Mitt Romney has regained the lead in the support for his party\u2019s presidential nomination, as conservative backing for Rick Santorum has declined. Romney currently holds a 33% to 24% lead over Santorum among registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, with 20% backing Newt Gingrich and 14% favoring Ron Paul.<\/p>\n\n

In mid-February, Santorum was tied with Romney overall (30% vs. 28%), and held an 11-point lead over Romney among conservative Republican and Republican-leaning voters (36% vs. 25%). Today, 25% of conservative Republicans favor Santorum for the nomination, while 31% support Romney and 22% back Gingrich.<\/p>\n\n

Moderate and liberal Republicans have not changed their primary preferences over the past month, with Romney holding a consistent lead among these voters.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

As has been the case in most of the state exit polls, Romney garners substantially less support from less educated and Tea Party Republican and Republican-leaning voters. College graduates favor Romney over Santorum by a 40% to 22% margin, while those without a college degree are more divided: 29% back Romney, 25% Santorum, and 23% Gingrich.<\/p>\n\n

Tea Party Republicans split their support between Gingrich (29%), Romney (26%) and Santorum (24%), while Romney holds a double-digit lead among the roughly half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters\u00a0 who do not identify with the Tea Party.<\/p>\n\n

Republican men are divided in their support, with 30% backing Romney, 26% Gingrich, and 21% Santorum. Among women, 36% favor Romney for the nomination, compared with 27% who back Santorum and just 15% who back Gingrich.<\/p>\n\n

Religion remains a deep divide within the Republican electorate; white evangelical Republicans are less likely than white mainline Protestants and Catholics to favor Romney for the nomination.<\/p>\n\n

More Worry about Extended GOP Race<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

A growing number of Republican and Republican-leaning voters are concerned that the unresolved campaign will be a bad thing for the Republican Party this year. A month ago, 55% said the fact that the contest was undecided and still going on was a good thing for the party, while 36% said it was a bad thing. Opinion is now divided almost evenly, with 47% saying it is good and 43% bad. Mitt Romney\u2019s supporters are more likely to say the long campaign is a bad thing for the party (52%), than are Gingrich\u2019s (36%) or Santorum\u2019s (30%) supporters.<\/p>\n\n

Republican evaluations of the quality of the GOP field have changed little over the course of the campaign. About half (49%) say the candidates for the party\u2019s nomination are excellent (6%) or good (43%), while 48% say they are <\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

only fair (39%) or poor (9%). In February 2008, a few weeks after Super Tuesday, 60% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said the field was excellent or good, while 38% said it was only fair or poor. Democrats also were more enthusiastic about their field in 2008 \u2013 fully 80% said they had excellent or good candidates.<\/p>\n\n

Conservative Republicans are somewhat more satisfied with the quality of candidates than are moderates and liberals (55% excellent or good vs. 43%). Similarly, 60% of Tea Party supporters say the candidates are excellent or good compared with 41% of Republicans who do not agree with the Tea Party.<\/p>\n\n

Republican Views of Romney, Santorum<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

When asked about the candidates\u2019 positions on the issues, roughly half of Republican voters say Romney\u2019s and Santorum\u2019s positions are about right. More say Santorum is too conservative (23%) than say he is not conservative enough (14%). By contrast, more see Romney as not conservative enough (33%) than as too conservative (11%).<\/p>\n\n

More than four-in-ten (44%) conservative Republicans say that Romney is not conservative enough in his positions on issues. An equal number of white evangelical Republicans think Romney is not conservative enough, as do 56% of Republican and <\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Republican-leaning voters who back Rick Santorum for the nomination. Men are significantly more likely than women to say Romney is not conservative enough in his position on the issues (38% vs. 27%).<\/p>\n\n

The impression that Santorum is too conservative is less common among GOP voters overall, but held by 44% of those who back Mitt Romney, and 35% of moderate and liberal Republicans. This view is also more prevalent among Republicans with family incomes of $75,000 or more (28%) than among those earning $30,000 or less (13%).<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

There is far more consensus among GOP voters about whether the candidates understand the needs of people like them. About seven-in-ten Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters say that Santorum (70%) and Romney (69%) understand the needs of people like them very or fairly well.<\/p>\n\n

There is little difference across most groups within the Republican electorate. Broad majorities of men and women, those with high and low incomes, and Southern and non-Southern Republican voters say each candidate understands the needs of people like them.<\/p>\n\n

Conservative Republicans give Santorum higher marks than do moderates and liberals on this question (78% vs. 59%). While 78% of white evangelical Republicans say Santorum understands the needs of people like them, fewer (66%) say the same about Romney.<\/p>\n\n

Voters\u2019 Knowledge of Candidates\u2019 Religious Preferences<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

The percentage of all registered voters who know that Mitt Romney is Mormon has increased from 48% in November to 58%. A majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (55%) know Romney\u2019s religion, as do 65% of Republicans and Republican-leaners.<\/p>\n\n

Only about three-in-ten voters (29%) can identify Rick Santorum as a Catholic. This includes 32% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters and 27% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners. Another 15% identify Santorum as either Protestant (10%) or volunteer that he is Christian (5%). About half (53%) of voters say they don\u2019t know his religion.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

In a follow-up question, about a third of those who identify Santorum as a Christian \u2013 16% of voters overall \u2013 say they believe he is an evangelical or born-again Christian.<\/p>\n\n

Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 42% of Catholics know that the former Pennsylvania senator is Catholic compared with 29% of Protestants.<\/p>\n\n

About a third (35%) of white evangelical Protestant Republicans say Santorum is evangelical; this contrasts with just 9% of white mainline Protestants and 11% of Catholics. In fact, as many white evangelical Republicans believe Santorum is an evangelical Christian (35%) as know that he is Catholic (34%).<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mitt Romney has regained the lead in the support for his party\u2019s presidential nomination, as conservative backing for Rick Santorum has declined. Romney currently holds a 33% to 24% lead over Santorum among registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, with 20% backing Newt Gingrich and 14% favoring Ron Paul. In mid-February, Santorum was tied with 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