{"id":52800,"date":"2008-02-28T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-02-28T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2008\/02\/28\/section-3-the-primary-contests\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:48:56","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:48:56","slug":"section-3-the-primary-contests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/section-3-the-primary-contests\/","title":{"rendered":"Section 3: The Primary Contests"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"floatright\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.pewresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/legacy\/398-23.gif\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barack Obama has taken a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton among Democratic voters nationwide. Currently, 49% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters say he would be their first choice for the nomination, while 40% name Clinton as their first choice. This is a reversal of the eight-point lead Clinton held just three weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Far more overwhelming, however, is the impression that Barack Obama is going to win. Seven-in-ten Democrats (70%) say Obama is most likely to win the party&#8217;s nomination, while just 17% see Clinton as the likely victor. Even a majority (52%) of Clinton&#8217;s backers say they think Obama is likely to emerge as the winner. Barely a third (34%) of Clinton backers predict that she will win the nomination.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since early February, Obama has made substantial gains among conservative Democratic voters, African Americans, and those with a high school education or less. He has now pulled even with Clinton among non-college voters, gaining 20 points among this group since early February.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Obama also has gained 11 points among a core Clinton constituency, Democratic women &#8212; ncluding 13 points among white Democratic women. He leads Clinton among voters younger than 65, and middle- and upper-income Democratic voters. He now matches Clinton&#8217;s support among white Democrats, and holds a commanding 73% to 20% lead among black voters.<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"text-align: center\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.pewresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/legacy\/398-24.gif\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<h3 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;gop-primaries-mccains-broad-gains&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" id=\"gop-primaries-mccains-broad-gains\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">GOP Primaries: McCain&#8217;s Broad Gains<\/h3>\n\n<div class=\"floatright\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.pewresearch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/legacy\/398-25.gif\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">John McCain&#8217;s support now spans all major segments of the Republican Party, including conservatives and white evangelical Protestants. He is the first choice nominee of 61% of Republican voters nationwide, up from 42% three weeks ago before the &#8220;Super Tuesday&#8221; primaries and Mitt Romney&#8217;s departure from the race. His support among Conservatives is up 19 points from 37% to 56%, and up 18-points among moderate and liberal Republicans as well. While McCain and Huckabee split the white evangelical Protestant vote three weeks ago, McCain now holds a 10-point lead, though still just shy of a majority (47% McCain, 37% Huckabee).<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Barack Obama has taken a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton among Democratic voters nationwide. Currently, 49% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters say he would be their first choice for the nomination, while 40% name Clinton as their first choice. This is a reversal of the eight-point lead Clinton held just three weeks ago. Far 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Has The Lead, But Potential Problems Too","slug":"obama-has-the-lead-but-potential-problems-too","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/obama-has-the-lead-but-potential-problems-too\/","is_active":false},{"id":52784,"title":"Section 1: General Election Patterns of Support","slug":"section-1-general-election-patterns-of-support","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/section-1-general-election-patterns-of-support\/","is_active":false},{"id":52793,"title":"Section 2: Candidate Images","slug":"section-2-candidate-images","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/section-2-candidate-images\/","is_active":false},{"id":52800,"title":"Section 3: The Primary Contests","slug":"section-3-the-primary-contests","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/section-3-the-primary-contests\/","is_active":true},{"id":52807,"title":"Section 4: Opinions of the Parties and Congress","slug":"section-4-opinions-of-the-parties-and-congress","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/section-4-opinions-of-the-parties-and-congress\/","is_active":false},{"id":52813,"title":"Section 5: Iraq, Afghanistan and Terrorism","slug":"section-5-iraq-afghanistan-and-terrorism","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/section-5-iraq-afghanistan-and-terrorism\/","is_active":false},{"id":52821,"title":"About this Survey","slug":"about-this-survey-2","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2008\/02\/28\/about-this-survey-2\/","is_active":false}],"report_materials":"","report_pagination":{"current_post":{"id":52800,"title":"Section 3: The Primary 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