{"id":50319,"date":"2011-12-13T13:55:31","date_gmt":"2011-12-13T18:55:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2011\/12\/13\/gingrich-leads-but-likely-gop-primary-voters-have-not-ruled-out-romney\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T04:10:48","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T09:10:48","slug":"gingrich-leads-but-likely-gop-primary-voters-have-not-ruled-out-romney","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2011\/12\/13\/gingrich-leads-but-likely-gop-primary-voters-have-not-ruled-out-romney\/","title":{"rendered":"Gingrich Leads, But Likely GOP Primary Voters Have Not Ruled Out Romney"},"content":{"rendered":"

Overview<\/h2>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Newt Gingrich holds a substantial 35% to 21% lead over Mitt Romney among Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters who say they are very likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses. But clear majorities say there is at least a chance they would vote for either Gingrich or Romney in Republican primaries in their state. None of the other Republican candidates draws nearly as much potential support.<\/p>\n\n

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press was conducted Dec. 7-11 among 1, 521 adults, including 392 likely Republican primary voters. It finds that 70% support Gingrich or say there is a chance they would vote for him. Romney trails Gingrich for the nomination, but as many as 61% of likely Republican primary voters either support Romney or say there is a chance they could support him.<\/p>\n\n

Just 18% of likely Republican primary voters say there is no chance they could support Gingrich and only somewhat more (26%) say there is no chance they could vote for Romney. More than four-in-ten likely Republican primary voters have effectively ruled out voting for the other GOP candidates.<\/p>\n\n

The survey finds that neither Gingrich nor Romney is drawing much in the way of strong support. Just 29% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who favor Gingrich for the nomination support him strongly; 69% support him \u201conly moderately.\u201d Similarly, far fewer GOP voters support Romney strongly (33%) than support him only moderately (66%). Support for both Gingrich and Romney is softer than was support for the leading GOP candidates four years ago.<\/p>\n\n

Gingrich holds a sizable lead over Romney among Republican and Republican-leaning voters who are very likely to vote in the primaries <\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

and caucuses, and agree with the Tea Party movement (35% to 20%).<\/p>\n\n

However, most Tea Party Republicans have not ruled out the possibility of supporting Romney. One-in-five (20%) likely Republican primary voters who agree with the Tea Party say Romney is their top choice for the GOP nomination. Another 40% say if their preferred candidate were not in the race there is a chance they could vote for the former Massachusetts governor. About three-in-ten (31%) likely Republican primary voters who agree with the Tea Party say there is no chance they would vote for Romney.<\/p>\n\n

Just 17% of likely GOP primary voters who agree with the Tea Party say there is no chance they would vote for Gingrich. Fully 75% either support Gingrich currently or say there is chance they would vote for him.<\/p>\n\n

Among white evangelical Protestants who say they are very likely to vote in a GOP primary, 51% either support Romney (10%) or say there is at least some chance they would support him (41%); 35% say there is no chance they would support him. Two-thirds (67%) of white evangelicals likely to vote in a GOP primary support Gingrich (35%) or say there is a chance they would vote for him (32%); 18% say there is no chance they would vote for him.<\/p>\n\n

Gingrich Fares Better than Romney among Men<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Among likely Republican primary voters, Gingrich runs somewhat better among men than among women. Gingrich leads Romney by two-to-one (40% to 19%) among men who say they are very likely to vote in the Republican primary in their state. Among Republican women, however, nearly as many support Romney (22%) as support Gingrich (29%).<\/p>\n\n

Gingrich runs well among likely Republican primary voters in the South: 41% prefer him for the GOP nomination compared with 16% who prefer Romney. By contrast voters in the West are divided: 30% prefer Romney, 27% Gingrich.<\/p>\n\n

Intense Support Lacking for Gingrich, Romney<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Among all Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters who express a preference for the GOP nomination, 34% support their choice for the GOP nomination strongly, while 64% say they back their candidate only moderately.<\/p>\n\n

There is no difference in intensity between those who support Gingrich and those who support Romney. About three-in-ten among both groups (33% Romney, 29% Gingrich) say they support their candidate strongly; far more say they support their candidate only moderately (66% Romney, 69% Gingrich).<\/p>\n\n

In January 2008, roughly half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who favored John McCain for the GOP nomination supported him strongly. And among Democratic voters, even higher proportions of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton supporters backed them strongly.<\/p>\n\n

Gingrich Moves to the Top<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Support for Gingrich has doubled over the past month among all Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, from 16% in mid-November to 33% in the current survey. In July, just 3% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters favored Gingrich for the nomination.<\/p>\n\n

Support for Mitt Romney has shown little change over this time period, and has been steady since last fall. In the current survey, 21% of Republican and GOP-leaning voters favor Romney.\nIn November, 22% of GOP voters supported Herman Cain for the Republican nomination. These voters have gone almost exclusively to Gingrich \u2013 no other GOP candidate has seen a significant increase in support from one month ago.<\/p>\n\n

More Say Gingrich Can Beat Obama\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/h3>\n\n

As Gingrich has moved into the lead for the GOP nomination, he also is increasingly viewed as having the best chance of any Republican to defeat Barack Obama. Currently, 35% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say that Gingrich has the best chance of beating Obama next November, up from just 13% a month ago.<\/p>\n\n

Nearly three-in-ten (28%) say Romney has the best chance of beating Obama, which is little changed from a month ago. Very few Republican and Republican-leaning voters think any other GOP candidate has the best chance of defeating Obama.<\/p>\n\n

<\/h3>\n\n

Little Change in Obama Approval<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

The survey finds little change in Barack Obama\u2019s job rating over the past month. But Obama\u2019s ratings continue to be better than they were in the summer.<\/p>\n\n

Currently, 46% of the public approves of Obama\u2019s job performance while 43% disapprove. In November, 46% approved and 46% disapproved. From <\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

July through early October his job ratings were more negative than positive. Since August, there has been a six-point decline in the percentage disapproving of Obama\u2019s job performance (from 49% to 43%).\u00a0 Obama\u2019s rating hit a two-year high in May (56%), following the killing of Osama bin Laden.<\/p>\n\n

In the current survey, 79% of Democrats approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president. About as many independents approve (41%) as disapprove (46%). Just 12% of Republicans approve of the way Obama is handling his job.<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Newt Gingrich holds a substantial 35% to 21% lead over Mitt Romney among Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters who say they are very likely to vote in the GOP primaries or caucuses. But clear majorities say there is at least a chance they would vote for either Gingrich or Romney in Republican primaries in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","sub_headline":"Tepid Support for Both Leading 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