{"id":50267,"date":"2012-01-18T13:09:12","date_gmt":"2012-01-18T18:09:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2012\/01\/18\/unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T04:10:48","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T09:10:48","slug":"unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead\/","title":{"rendered":"Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead"},"content":{"rendered":"

Overview<\/h2>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Days ahead of the South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney maintains a substantial lead nationally in the race for the GOP nomination. Yet his image among all voters has slipped since November and he runs no better in a general election matchup with Barack Obama than he did then, despite his advantage as the \u201celectable\u201d Republican candidate.<\/p>\n\n

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 11-16 among 1,207 registered voters, including 527 Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters, finds that Romney nearly doubles the support of his closest competitors for the Republican nomination.<\/p>\n\n

Currently, 31% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Romney, compared with 16% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, 14% for Rick Santorum and 5% for Rick Perry. The preferences of GOP voters are little changed since shortly before the New Hampshire primary.<\/p>\n\n

Among all voters, however, Romney\u2019s image is negative. In fact, slightly fewer voters have a favorable opinion of Romney than did so in November (33% now, 38% then); nearly half of voters (47%) say they have an unfavorable impression of the former Massachusetts governor.<\/p>\n\n

Romney continues to run about even with Obama in a general election matchup, even though Obama\u2019s job disapproval rating has edged up since December. Currently, 48% of the public disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job as president while 44% approve. Last month, 46% approved and 43% disapproved.<\/p>\n\n

In a general election matchup, 50% of registered voters say they would vote for Obama while 45% support Romney. That is little changed from November (49% Obama, 47% Romney), and early October (48% each).<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

The survey finds that a third-party campaign by Ron Paul would clearly work to Obama\u2019s advantage: In this scenario, 44% of registered voters say they would favor Obama, 32% would back Romney and 18% would back Paul. Paul has repeatedly said he is not contemplating a third-party run, but has not ruled it out. While most of Paul\u2019s backing in a three-person race comes from independent voters, they are independents who disproportionately lean Republican. A Paul candidacy would also appeal to many conservative Republicans, siphoning votes from the core Republican base as well.<\/p>\n\n

Romney\u2019s Strength – Electability<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Romney holds an overwhelming advantage over his GOP rivals as the candidate viewed as having the best chance of defeating Obama. Fully 58% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say that Romney has the best chance of beating Obama. Gingrich is a distant second (11%).<\/p>\n\n

Republican voters have more mixed views of which candidate can best handle several key issues, although Romney has significant advantages on improving job opportunities (33% vs. 14% Paul, 12% Gingrich) and reducing the federal budget deficit (29% vs. 20% Gingrich, 19% Paul).<\/p>\n\n

Republican voters are divided about which candidate best reflects their views on social issues like abortion. One-in-five (20%) name Santorum, but nearly as many (18%) say Romney. Among white evangelical Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 30% say Santorum best reflects their views on social issues, compared with 16% who name Romney.<\/p>\n\n

In addition, no candidate holds a significant advantage in dealing with immigration: 18% say Gingrich, 17% Romney, 14% Paul and 14% Perry.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

There is only one issue \u2013 foreign policy \u2013 on which a candidate other than Romney leads. A third (33%) of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they trust Gingrich most to handle America\u2019s foreign policy while 25% name Romney.\u00a0 Among GOP voters who agree with the Tea Party, Gingrich leads Romney 42% to 23%; Republican voters who disagree with the Tea Party or have no opinion of the movement are divided (27% Romney, 25% Gingrich).<\/p>\n\n

Ron Paul is named most frequently as the candidate Republican voters do not trust on foreign policy. Nearly a third (32%) volunteer Paul as the candidate they do not trust, far more than name any other candidate. Among Republican voters who have given a lot of thought to the 2012 candidates (56% of all Republican and Republican-leaning voters), nearly half (46%) volunteer Paul as the candidate they do not trust on foreign policy; among those who have given less thought to the candidates, just 13% name Paul.<\/p>\n\n

Romney\u2019s Image<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Mitt Romney\u2019s gains in the GOP horserace have not been accompanied by an improvement in his personal image. Among all voters, his favorability rating has slipped since November, from 38% to 33%. That is primarily because of a decline among Democratic voters (from 25% then to 14% today).<\/p>\n\n

Romney\u2019s favorability has changed little in recent months among Republican and independent voters. Currently, 61% of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Romney, compared with 25% who have an unfavorable view. That is about the same as in November (58% favorable, 28% unfavorable). Among independent voters, 32% have a favorable opinion of Romney while significantly more (45%) have an unfavorable view.<\/p>\n\n

Romney\u2019s image has changed little among subgroups of Republican and Republican-leaning voters: 59% of GOP voters who agree with the Tea Party have a favorable opinion of Romney as do 52% of white evangelical Republicans; in November, comparable percentages of both groups viewed Romney favorably.<\/p>\n\n

Going back even further to the 2008 presidential campaign, Romney\u2019s favorability rating has not changed much. In January 2008, 33% of registered voters viewed him favorably and 44% said they had an unfavorable impression; that is little different from the current rating of 33% favorable, 47% unfavorable.<\/p>\n\n

An Independent Paul Candidacy Would Help Obama<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

In considering a possible general election matchup between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney this fall, voters remain about evenly split in their preferences, with 50% saying they would vote for Obama and 45% for Romney.<\/p>\n\n

But a third-party candidacy by current Republican candidate Ron Paul would attract support from nearly one-in-five voters and help Barack Obama\u2019s reelection prospects significantly. In this hypothetical three-candidate race, 44% say they would back Obama, 32% Romney, and 18% Paul.<\/p>\n\n

Not surprisingly, much of the potential support for Paul comes from independent voters. Roughly a quarter of independents who say they would back Obama or Romney in a two-person race say they would switch to Paul if he runs, leaving the independent vote divided almost evenly between Obama (31%), Romney (33%) and Paul (26%). Put in other terms, Obama loses nine percent and Romney 17 percent of independent voters to Ron Paul if he decides to run.<\/p>\n\n

Not only does Romney lose more independent voters to Ron Paul than does Obama, but a Paul third-party candidacy also threatens to steal away some of the conservative Republican vote as well. Fully 96% of conservative Republicans say they would back Mitt Romney in a two-person race against Obama. But that support falls to 77% in a three-person race, with 19% saying they would switch to backing Ron Paul. There is no comparable loss of support for Obama among either liberal or moderate and conservative Democrats.<\/p>\n\n

Younger Republicans Drawn to Paul<\/h3>\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Overall, voters under 65 are about twice as likely as older voters to say they would support Ron Paul in a three-way race with Obama and Romney; 21% of those 18-44, and 19% of those 45-64 would support Paul, compared with just 11% of older voters.<\/p>\n\n

Among Republicans under 45, 30% would support Paul, shrinking Romney\u2019s support to just 57% from 83% in a two-way matchup against Obama. Paul also would be a threat to take some of the 45-64 year-old Republican voters from Romney as well, but relatively few older Republican voters.<\/p>\n\n

Ron Paul has substantially less pull on younger Democratic voters.\u00a0 Where he would appeal to 30% of Republicans and Republican leaners under age 45, he would draw the backing of just 12% of Democrats and Democratic leaners in the same age range.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Days ahead of the South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney maintains a substantial lead nationally in the race for the GOP nomination. Yet his image among all voters has slipped since November and he runs no better in a general election matchup with Barack Obama than he did then, despite his advantage as the \u201celectable\u201d […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sub_headline":"Paul Polls at 18% as Third Party Candidate","sub_title":"Paul Polls at 18% as Third Party Candidate","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"relatedPosts":[],"reportMaterials":[{"key":"7528b5a9-63bb-4523-a3db-15b0d5247f27","type":"report","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/legacy-pdf\/1-18-12-Political-Release.pdf"},{"key":"8a322f52-e09c-410b-86ca-cf4129788f74","type":"topline","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/legacy-questionnaires\/1-18-12topline-for-release.pdf"}],"multiSectionReport":[{"key":"_migrate_0","postId":50281}],"package_parts__enabled":false,"package_parts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[44,25,39],"tags":[],"bylines":[],"collection":[],"datasets":[1322],"level_of_effort":[],"primary_audience":[],"information_type":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[458],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[],"research-teams":[520],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-50267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-election-2012","category-politics-policy","category-us-elections-voters","datasets-january-2012-political-survey","formats-report","research-teams-politics"],"label":false,"post_parent":0,"word_count":1199,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead\/","art_direction":false,"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[{"id":50267,"title":"Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead","slug":"unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead\/","is_active":true},{"id":50281,"title":"About the Survey","slug":"about-the-survey-274","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/about-the-survey-274\/","is_active":false}],"report_materials":[{"key":"7528b5a9-63bb-4523-a3db-15b0d5247f27","type":"report","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/legacy-pdf\/1-18-12-Political-Release.pdf","label":"","icon":"","attachmentId":""},{"key":"8a322f52-e09c-410b-86ca-cf4129788f74","type":"topline","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/legacy-questionnaires\/1-18-12topline-for-release.pdf","label":"","icon":"","attachmentId":""},{"type":"dataset","id":1322,"label":"January 2012 Political Survey","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/dataset\/january-2012-political-survey\/"}],"report_pagination":{"current_post":{"id":50267,"title":"Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead","slug":"unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead\/","is_active":true,"page_num":1},"next_post":{"id":50281,"title":"About the Survey","slug":"about-the-survey-274","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/about-the-survey-274\/","is_active":false,"page_num":2},"previous_post":null,"pagination_items":[{"id":50267,"title":"Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead","slug":"unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/unpopular-nationally-romney-holds-solid-gop-lead\/","is_active":true,"page_num":1},{"id":50281,"title":"About the Survey","slug":"about-the-survey-274","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2012\/01\/18\/about-the-survey-274\/","is_active":false,"page_num":2}]},"parent_info":{"parent_title":"Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead","parent_id":50267},"materialsOrdered":[{"key":"7528b5a9-63bb-4523-a3db-15b0d5247f27","type":"report","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/legacy-pdf\/1-18-12-Political-Release.pdf","label":"","attachmentId":0,"icon":""},{"key":"8a322f52-e09c-410b-86ca-cf4129788f74","type":"topline","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/legacy-questionnaires\/1-18-12topline-for-release.pdf","label":"","attachmentId":0,"icon":""}],"chaptersOrdered":[{"key":"_migrate_0","postId":50281}],"partsOrdered":[],"partsEnabled":false,"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead","description":"Overview Days ahead of the South Carolina primary, Mitt Romney maintains a substantial lead nationally in the race for the GOP nomination. Yet his image among all voters has slipped…","og_title":"Unpopular Nationally, Romney Holds Solid GOP Lead","og_description":"","schema_type":"Article","noindex":false,"canonical_url":"","primary_terms":[],"custom_schema":[],"og_image":0,"indexnow_submitted_at":null,"gsc_index_status":null},"prepublish_checks":{"prc-image-alt-text":{"status":"incomplete","message":"7 images are missing alt text.","data":{"count":7}},"prc-about-this-research":{"status":"incomplete","message":"Add an \"About this research\" details block.","data":null},"prc-paragraph-count":{"status":"complete","message":"Found 24 paragraphs.","data":{"count":24}},"prc-internal-link":{"status":"complete","message":"Found 7 internal links.","data":{"count":7}}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"relatedPostsOrdered":[],"bylinesOrdered":[],"acknowledgementsOrdered":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/53"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50267"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50267\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":125809,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50267\/revisions\/125809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"bylines","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bylines?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"collection","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/collection?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"datasets","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/datasets?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"level_of_effort","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/level_of_effort?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"primary_audience","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/primary_audience?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"information_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/information_type?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"_post_visibility","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/_post_visibility?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"formats","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/formats?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"_fund_pool","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/_fund_pool?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"languages","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/languages?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"regions-countries","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/regions-countries?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"research-teams","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research-teams?post=50267"},{"taxonomy":"workflow-status","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/workflow-status?post=50267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}