{"id":441639,"date":"2026-09-16T13:56:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T17:56:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?p=441639"},"modified":"2026-09-17T10:54:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T14:54:12","slug":"survey-panels-can-make-political-party-affiliation-weighting-easier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/09\/16\/survey-panels-can-make-political-party-affiliation-weighting-easier\/","title":{"rendered":"Survey panels can make political party affiliation weighting easier"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-style-plus-icon has-border-color has-ui-gray-light-border-color has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-background has-sans-serif-font-family is-layout-flow wp-container-core-details-is-layout-4031d49d wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\" style=\"border-width:1px;padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);font-size:clamp(0.875em, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 0.2em) * 0.009), 0.88em);\"><summary>About this research<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This report explains <em>political weighting<\/em> \u2013 adjusting a survey to reflect the political composition of the United States as accurately as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-did-we-do-this\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why did we do this?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pew Research Center does research to help the public, media and decision-makers understand important topics. In our surveys of the U.S. public, we regularly adjust, or \u201cweight,\u201d how much we emphasize certain groups\u2019 responses depending on how likely they are to participate, among other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This report examines best practices for weighting by political party affiliation and voting choice, particularly in the context of survey panels. It adds to the Center\u2019s extensive body of work on <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/our-methods\/\">survey research methods<\/a>. Learn more <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/about\/\">about Pew Research Center<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"how-did-we-do-this\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How did we do this?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We drew on results from Pew Research Center surveys, as well as studies conducted by other researchers.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One challenge pollsters face when weighting surveys based on people\u2019s self-reported political party affiliation is that <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2024\/04\/09\/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters\/\">the population target can change<\/a> fairly quickly. One year, Americans may be evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. The next year, politics may shift and one party clearly outnumbers the other in supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weighting to the shares of Republicans and Democrats nationwide has the potential to align a poll with an outdated snapshot of the country. This can happen if there is political change between when the benchmark survey was fielded and when the current poll was fielded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(This is part of a larger Pew Research Center report about political weighting \u2013 adjusting a survey to reflect the political composition of the United States as accurately as possible. For an overview and the report\u2019s key takeaways, read \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/09\/16\/weighting-polls-on-party-affiliation-and-past-vote\/\">Weighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past Vote<\/a>.\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>An underappreciated fact about polling is how survey panels can neutralize this problem.<\/strong> The key is understanding that with a panel, there can be <em>two<\/em> measurements of political party affiliation for each panelist:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>One measured contemporaneously with the benchmark (in the past)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Another measured in the current poll (in the present)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pollsters can use the <em>past<\/em> measurement in weighting, so that the benchmark and weighting variable are apples to apples (i.e., party affiliation measured for the population and in the survey of interest at roughly the same point in time). For reporting and analytic purposes, though, pollsters use the <em>current<\/em> measurement. That way, their analysis reflects current public opinion, not public opinion from months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is a real-world example from Pew Research Center\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/the-american-trends-panel\/\">American Trends Panel<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-6ad4e947 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60)\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In early and mid-2025, we measured political party affiliation for all panelists, whether in the Center\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/fact-sheet\/national-public-opinion-reference-survey-npors\/\">National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS)<\/a> benchmarking survey itself \u2013 for those new to the panel in 2025 \u2013 or just after NPORS came out of the field for current panelists. At the time, NPORS found Americans were about evenly split (46% Republican or leaning Republican and 45% Democratic or leaning Democratic).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fast forward to spring 2026. There had been a record-long federal government shutdown and debate over the administration\u2019s tariff and immigration enforcement policies, among other national news stories. It was possible that some Americans\u2019 political party identification shifted during this period from spring 2025 to spring 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From May 26 to June 1, 2026, the Center conducted another panel survey (described here as the May 2026 poll) and re-asked party affiliation. At that point, we had <em>two<\/em> party affiliation measurements from the same people: the past measurement contemporaneous with the benchmark and the current measurement from the latest poll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per standard practice, we weighted the May 2026 poll on party affiliation as well as other variables. Critically, the <em>past measurement of party affiliation<\/em> (from summer 2025) was aligned with the benchmark taken at about the same time (2025 NPORS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When reporting results from the May 2026 poll, researchers used the current political party affiliation measurement. <strong>That current measurement was not used in the weighting.<\/strong> In other words, the poll was allowed to capture real change in Americans\u2019 political views since the benchmark survey (and the past panel measurement) was fielded. The measurement from the May 2026 poll was 45% Republican or leaning Republican and 49% Democratic or leaning Democratic (similar to the 4 percentage point gap of 43% Republican or leaning Republican and 47% Democratic or leaning Democratic found in the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/fact-sheet\/party-affiliation-fact-sheet-npors\/\">2026 NPORS survey<\/a>, which was taking place around the same time).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-420-wide\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=452940\"><img data-dominant-color=\"ded6d6\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #ded6d6;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/09\/PM_2026.9.16_party-weighting_2-01.png?resize=480,566 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/09\/PM_2026.9.16_party-weighting_2-01.png?resize=782,922 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/09\/PM_2026.9.16_party-weighting_2-01.png?resize=840,990 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"495\" width=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/09\/PM_2026.9.16_party-weighting_2-01.png?w=420\" alt=\"Chart shows weighting the panel to a party benchmark does not prevent a later measurement from showing change\" class=\"wp-image-452940 not-transparent\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That example demonstrates how it\u2019s possible to both align a poll with a party affiliation benchmark and allow the current poll to get a new measurement. This is only possible, however, with a survey panel or reinterview with the same respondents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For one-off surveys, there is no past measurement taken contemporaneously with a benchmark survey.<\/strong> Typically, all a pollster can do is gather a current measurement of political party. This situation is not bad, per se. It just means the pollster\u2019s options are more limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They could weight to a party affiliation estimate obtained from some external source, such as NPORS or an average from other polling organizations. Arguably, that choice prioritizes bias reduction over being able to report a party affiliation estimate from the pollster\u2019s new poll, assuming that the estimate from an external source is judged to be more accurate. Alternatively, the pollster could refrain from weighting on party affiliation and report a party affiliation estimate from the poll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Only when there is a prior measurement for the same respondents, as with a panel, can a pollster do both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Jump ahead for <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/09\/16\/faqs-about-political-weighting-in-polling-and-its-limitations\/\">FAQs about political weighting, including its shortcomings<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One challenge pollsters face when weighting surveys based on people\u2019s self-reported political party affiliation is that the population target can change fairly quickly. One year, Americans may be evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. The next year, politics may shift and one party clearly outnumbers the other in supporters. Weighting to the shares of Republicans 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images have alt text.","data":null},"prc-about-this-research":{"status":"complete","message":"Found an \"About this research\" details block.","data":null},"prc-paragraph-count":{"status":"complete","message":"Found 20 paragraphs.","data":{"count":20}},"prc-internal-link":{"status":"complete","message":"Found 9 internal links.","data":{"count":9}},"prc-environment-link":{"status":"complete","message":"No links to other Pew Research environments.","data":{"count":0,"hosts":[]}}},"watchChildPosts":false,"watchers":[{"id":581,"name":"Reem Nadeem","email":"rnadeem@pewresearch.org","slack_user_id":"","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/b06811579889b6fff7fdd2befecc898bcb2dd984d564c96be876c26671c3c44a?s=48&d=mm&r=g"}],"table_of_contents":[{"id":440954,"title":"Weighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past 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easier","slug":"survey-panels-can-make-political-party-affiliation-weighting-easier","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/09\/16\/survey-panels-can-make-political-party-affiliation-weighting-easier\/","is_active":true},{"id":441938,"title":"Why many polls need to weight on party affiliation or past vote","slug":"why-many-polls-need-to-weight-on-party-affiliation-or-past-vote","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/09\/16\/why-many-polls-need-to-weight-on-party-affiliation-or-past-vote\/","is_active":false},{"id":442147,"title":"FAQs about political weighting in polling and its 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