{"id":281183,"date":"2025-11-20T19:56:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T00:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?p=281183"},"modified":"2026-04-07T12:36:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T16:36:15","slug":"video-why-have-polls-underestimated-donald-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2025\/11\/20\/video-why-have-polls-underestimated-donald-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"Video: Why have polls underestimated Donald Trump?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019re in an era where the people most likely to respond to a poll are also the most likely to vote Democratic for president. Pew Research Center\u2019s head methodologist, Courtney Kennedy, explains how pollsters are tackling this challenge to make survey samples as representative as possible. 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Pew Research Center\u2019s head methodologist Courtney Kennedy explains how pollsters are tackling this challenge to make samples as representative as possible. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":377,"featured_media":281264,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"layout-full-width","format":"standard","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_crdt_document":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","relatedPosts":[],"reportMaterials":[],"multiSectionReport":[],"package_parts__enabled":false,"package_parts":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"bylines":[],"acknowledgements":[{"key":"_7z7xnu0ie","termId":794},{"key":"_benllnrrs","termId":888},{"key":"_58s515plu","termId":631},{"key":"_3ae74eoam","termId":977}],"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[]},"categories":[68,357],"tags":[],"bylines":[631,794,888,977],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"level_of_effort":[],"primary_audience":[],"information_type":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[470],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[],"research-teams":[528],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-281183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-donald-trump","category-survey-methods","bylines-courtney-kennedy","bylines-kim-arias","bylines-sara-atske","bylines-shannon-greenwood","formats-video","research-teams-methods"],"label":false,"post_parent":0,"word_count":59,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2025\/11\/20\/video-why-have-polls-underestimated-donald-trump\/","art_direction":{"A2":{"id":281264,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"caption":"","chartArt":false},"XL":{"id":281264,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png?w=720&h=405&crop=1","width":720,"height":405,"caption":"","chartArt":false},"A3":{"id":281264,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png?w=194&h=110&crop=1","width":194,"height":110,"caption":"","chartArt":false},"A4":{"id":281264,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"caption":"","chartArt":false},"A1":{"id":281264,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png?w=564&h=317&crop=1","width":564,"height":317,"caption":"","chartArt":false},"social":{"id":281264,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png","url":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/11\/PM_2025.11.20_Methods-101_Thumb_EP1_Wide_01.png?w=1200&h=628&crop=1","width":1200,"height":628,"caption":"","chartArt":false}},"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[],"report_materials":[],"report_pagination":{"current_post":null,"next_post":null,"previous_post":null,"pagination_items":[]},"parent_info":{"parent_title":"Video: Why have polls underestimated Donald Trump?","parent_id":281183},"materialsOrdered":[],"chaptersOrdered":[],"partsOrdered":[],"partsEnabled":false,"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"Video: Why have polls underestimated Donald Trump?","description":"We\u2019re in an era where the people most likely to respond to a poll are also the most likely to vote Democratic for president. 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