{"id":24966,"date":"2012-02-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-21T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2012\/02\/21\/ask-the-expert-the-forces-at-work-in-the-2012-elections\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:51:53","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:51:53","slug":"ask-the-expert-the-forces-at-work-in-the-2012-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2012\/02\/21\/ask-the-expert-the-forces-at-work-in-the-2012-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"The Forces at Work in the 2012 Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, answers questions about the 2012 presidential campaign so far and some of the trends that will shape this year’s congressional elections.<\/em><\/p>\n\n

Q. What is the\u00a0biggest surprise of this election year, compared to recent past elections?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

A.\u00a0Elections are referendums on the times, and if you look at the mood of the country\u00a0that should point to a campaign where the Republicans are in the driver’s seat.\u00a0Two-thirds of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the\u00a0country; last fall, 79% said they\u00a0were frustrated or angrywith the federal government<\/a>; 89% give a\u00a0negative rating to the national economy<\/a>; and views of Congress are as negative\u00a0as they have been in 25 years<\/a>. As far as the presidential race,\u00a0Barack Obama still has only a 47%\u00a0job approval rating <\/a>and a 38% approval rating for his handling of the economy.<\/p>\n\n

Q. Why then\u00a0aren’t the Republicans in the driver’s seat at this point?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

A.\u00a0When it comes to the presidential race, the volatility and negativity of the Republican\u00a0race has a lot to do with Obama’s ability to hold his own despite his low\u00a0approval numbers. Already, there have been several Republican frontrunners at\u00a0various times besides Mitt Romney.<\/p>\n\n

The\u00a0negativity of the campaign has taken a toll and, in addition, most voters,\u00a0including Republicans, find the GOP field unimpressive. Our poll in late January <\/a>found that 52% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters viewed the\u00a0candidates as only fair or poor compared with 46% who rated them good or\u00a0excellent. Half of all Americans in one of our mid-January surveys said the campaign was too negative<\/a>,\u00a0and that view was shared by 48% of Republicans.<\/p>\n\n

Mitt\u00a0Romney, who most polls have shown to be the most competitive candidate against\u00a0Obama, has seen his numbers worsen in recent months. About half of voters (52%)\u00a0had an unfavorable opinion of Romney in a survey we took in early February. Romney\u00a0has also lost support among independent voters<\/a> who will be crucial to the election. \u00a0In January, Romney led Obama by a 50% to 40% margin\u00a0among this group; in February, the support of independents swung to Obama by a\u00a051% to 42% margin.<\/p>\n\n

Q: If Obama’s\u00a0approval rating and marks on the economy are liabilities for him, and the\u00a0Republican field faces its own struggles, then what does that say about the\u00a0outlook for the election?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

A: It\u00a0sets up a real conundrum: No recent president has been reelected with a jobless\u00a0rate as high as Obama faces today. On the other hand, no recent challenger with\u00a0favorable ratings as weak as Romney’s, or Gingrich’s, has won the White House.\u00a0Something’s got to give.<\/p>\n\n

Q. What about\u00a0the congressional elections?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

A.\u00a0As I said, Congress is viewed quite negatively. The public’s view of Congress\u00a0is as unfavorable as it has been in more than 25 years of Pew Research Center surveys.\u00a0The fight over raising the debt ceiling last summer, which was not resolved\u00a0until the 11th<\/sup> hour, did much to shape public\u00a0opinion<\/a> about the political parties. The GOP’s favorability rating, already in negative\u00a0territory, fell even further after the debt imbroglio. <\/em>Moreover,in December<\/a>, by 53% to 33%,\u00a0more described the Republican Party, rather than the Democratic Party, as more\u00a0extreme in its positions. The Tea Party, which was important to the GOP’s\u00a0success in the congressional elections of 2010, has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the\u00a0congressional districts represented by the 60 members of the House Tea Party\u00a0Caucus<\/a>. The image of the Republican Party also has\u00a0declined even more sharply in these GOP-controlled districts than across the\u00a0country at large.<\/p>\n\n

Q. Have your surveys pointed to any particular issues,\u00a0aside from the overall concern about the economy, that may characterize the\u00a0upcoming campaigns?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

A: One issue that looms in this year’s elections\u00a0is the income inequality issue. One of our recent polls found that 66% of\u00a0Americans believed there were “very strong” or\u00a0“strong” conflicts between the rich and the poor<\/a> – an increase of 19 percentage points since 2009. But it\u00a0is important to underline that this is more an issue about perceptions of\u00a0fairness than class conflict. Our polling has found, for instance, that what\u00a0bothers Americans most is not the amount of taxes they pay, but their belief\u00a0that the wealthy are not\u00a0paying their fair share<\/a>. To repair their\u00a0image, Republicans will have to deal with the fairness question. By the same\u00a0token, candidates of either party should recognize the limits of reading the\u00a0frustration of Americans as a call for class warfare.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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