{"id":101438,"date":"2018-08-06T09:59:58","date_gmt":"2018-08-06T14:59:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2018\/08\/06\/video-explainer-what-are-nonprobability-surveys\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T16:18:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T20:18:57","slug":"video-explainer-what-are-nonprobability-surveys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2018\/08\/06\/video-explainer-what-are-nonprobability-surveys\/","title":{"rendered":"Methods 101: What are nonprobability surveys?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our third Methods 101 video explores some of the ways that nonprobability surveys differ from traditional probability-based polls. To learn more about polling basics, watch our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLZ9z-Af5ISavJpPlvdMU4T-etIDOUmldk\">Methods 101 video series<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<nav style=\"line-height:1\" class=\"items-justified-left is-style-pills wp-block-navigation is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-navigation-is-layout-956e015c wp-block-navigation-is-layout-flex\" aria-label=\"Methods 101 Menu\"><ul style=\"line-height:1\" class=\"wp-block-navigation__container items-justified-left is-style-pills wp-block-navigation\"><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2017\/05\/12\/methods-101-video-random-sampling\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">Random Sampling<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2018\/03\/21\/methods-101-video-question-wording\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">Survey Question Wording<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2019\/02\/07\/methods-101-mode-effects\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">Mode effects<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2018\/08\/06\/video-explainer-what-are-nonprobability-surveys\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">What are nonprobability surveys?<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2019\/07\/16\/video-how-is-polling-done-around-the-world\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">How is polling done around the world?<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2020\/06\/04\/video-what-is-machine-learning-and-how-does-it-work\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">What is machine learning, and how does it work?<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2025\/11\/20\/video-why-have-polls-underestimated-donald-trump\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">Why have polls underestimated Donald Trump?<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item wp-block-navigation-link\"><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\"  href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/02\/11\/video-how-do-polls-work-when-no-one-answers-the-phone-anymore\/\"><span class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label\">How do polls work when no one answers the phone anymore?<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Methods 101: What are nonprobability surveys?\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/T9dmq6Lwh24?feature=oembed&#038;rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"is-style-alternate wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"video-transcript\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;video-transcript&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>Video Transcript<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How do pollsters conduct surveys online and what does that mean&nbsp;for their accuracy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For decades, the gold standard for public opinion surveys has been the probability-based telephone poll, which starts with a random sample&nbsp;from virtually the entire population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But in recent years,&nbsp;two major developments&nbsp;have led many researchers&nbsp;to turn to a new method,&nbsp;polling online using&nbsp;non-probability samples,&nbsp;also known as online opt-in polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are two main reasons for this shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, it&#8217;s become harder for pollsters&nbsp;to get the people they randomly select&nbsp;to actually respond to the surveys.&nbsp;That&#8217;s made traditional polling&nbsp;more difficult&nbsp;and expensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second thing that&#8217;s&nbsp;happened is the internet.&nbsp;Think about it:&nbsp;All of a sudden, you can&nbsp;reach thousands of people&nbsp;using this completely new channel.&nbsp;You don&#8217;t have to pay interviewers,&nbsp;and people can respond when&nbsp;it&#8217;s convenient for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem with doing surveys online&nbsp;is that there is no master list&nbsp;of email addresses,&nbsp;or people using the internet&nbsp;that a pollster can use&nbsp;to draw a random sample&nbsp;from the entire population,&nbsp;the way that there is a master list&nbsp;of cellphone numbers in the U.S.&nbsp;and home addresses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So without a list,&nbsp;what do these online opt-in&nbsp;polls do to find participants?&nbsp;Well, there&#8217;s a range&nbsp;of different strategies.&nbsp;People are often recruited&nbsp;through on ads on websites,&nbsp;through memberships&nbsp;in customer loyalty programs,&nbsp;or because they signed themselves up&nbsp;to join a survey panel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opt-in surveys are much cheaper and faster&nbsp;than traditional polls.&nbsp;The question&nbsp;of course,&nbsp;is how accurate and reliable are they?&nbsp;To help us understand this better,&nbsp;here&#8217;s our senior research&nbsp;methodologist, Andrew Mercer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So how accurate and&nbsp;reliable are these polls?&nbsp;Well, that&#8217;s a hard question to untangle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With non-probability polls,&nbsp;there&#8217;s no random selection&nbsp;from the entire population.&nbsp;Meaning that researchers&nbsp;don&#8217;t know the chance &#8211;&nbsp;or probability &#8211;&nbsp;that each person has of being selected&nbsp;for any given poll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So if the people in the surveys&nbsp;are different from the broader population,&nbsp;their views may not be representative&nbsp;of the entire population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s important to note that&nbsp;polls using probability sampling&nbsp;aren&#8217;t immune from that problem either&nbsp;because most people who are sampled&nbsp;don&#8217;t actually participate.&nbsp;This is a challenge known as non-response,&nbsp;which all pollsters encounter.&nbsp;And a badly designed or executed survey&nbsp;will give bad results,&nbsp;no matter how the sample is selected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, pollsters working&nbsp;with probability samples&nbsp;are all starting with&nbsp;the same raw materials: a&nbsp;random sample of the entire population.&nbsp;And with decades of&nbsp;research under our belt,&nbsp;we know a lot about what makes some people&nbsp;more or less likely to take surveys. This makes it easier to&nbsp;correct for those differences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With opt-in surveys,&nbsp;we have a lot less information&nbsp;about how the samples may be different&nbsp;from the public overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The companies that provide&nbsp;these kinds of samples&nbsp;all have different ways&nbsp;of recruiting people&nbsp;and deciding who gets selected&nbsp;for any particular survey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What&#8217;s more,&nbsp;these companies don&#8217;t usually&nbsp;make this information public,&nbsp;which makes it much more difficult&nbsp;to know how to adjust the data&nbsp;to represent the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s not to say it&#8217;s&nbsp;impossible to do useful research&nbsp;with an opt-in sample.&nbsp;There are some topics,&nbsp;like presidential approval,&nbsp;where carefully adjusted opt-in surveys&nbsp;give results that are similar&nbsp;to more traditional&nbsp;probability-based polls.&nbsp;But there&#8217;s still a lot we don&#8217;t know&nbsp;about their accuracy for&nbsp;studying other topics&nbsp;like people&#8217;s religious beliefs&nbsp;or attitudes about science and technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks Andrew.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If this all sounds complicated,&nbsp;that&#8217;s because it is.&nbsp;And we haven&#8217;t even&nbsp;mentioned the third way,&nbsp;which is polling people online&nbsp;but with probability-based panels.&nbsp;These panels are made up of adults&nbsp;who were initially recruited&nbsp;in an offline probability sample&nbsp;and agree to take surveys&nbsp;online periodically.&nbsp;That works for us and for some&nbsp;other polling organizations,&nbsp;but is expensive and not&nbsp;without its own challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All that&#8217;s to say,&nbsp;how online polls stack up&nbsp;against more traditional methods&nbsp;remains a hotly debated topic.&nbsp;And it&#8217;s something that&nbsp;we at Pew Research Center&nbsp;and researchers elsewhere&nbsp;will continue to study.<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our latest Methods 101 video explores some of the ways these surveys differ from traditional probability-based 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