{"id":166474,"date":"2024-07-01T15:03:15","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T19:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?post_type=mini-course&#038;p=166474"},"modified":"2025-08-19T13:48:29","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T17:48:29","slug":"public-opinion-polling-basics","status":"publish","type":"mini-course","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/course\/public-opinion-polling-basics\/","title":{"rendered":"Public Opinion Polling Basics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;polling-course-overview&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"polling-course-overview\">Polling course overview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Hello! I\u2019m Scott Keeter, senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. I\u2019ve been conducting surveys of all kinds for about 40 years. Currently I work with our survey methodology team, which provides methodological guidance and support to all the Center\u2019s research teams.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0-keeter_mug.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416268\" style=\"width:200px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Scott Keeter<br><\/strong>Senior Survey Advisor<br>Pew Research Center<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Most of the work we do at the Center involves opinion polling. So let\u2019s take a step back and ask a few basic questions about this frequently misunderstood field:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-text-color-color has-text-color has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>Lesson 1: <a href=\"#why-do-we-have-opinion-polls\">Why do we have public opinion polls?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lesson 2: <a href=\"#how-does-polling-work\">How does polling work?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lesson 3: <a href=\"#what-are-the-different-kinds-of-polls\">What are the different kinds of polls?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lesson 4: <a href=\"#what-s-the-deal-with-election-polls\">What\u2019s the deal with election polls?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lesson 5: <a href=\"#is-accurate-polling-becoming-harder-to-do\">Is accurate polling becoming harder to do?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lesson 6: <a href=\"#what-should-you-look-for-in-a-poll\">What should you look for in a poll?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ll try to answer these and other questions in this course, which is made up of six short, easy-to-read lessons.<br><br>But first, please answer 3 questions on polling to gauge your level of understanding. You\u2019ll get another whack at these questions at the end of the course, along with some new ones.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-6264ac2c wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\"><div class=\"is-style-standard wp-block-prc-block-dialog\" data-wp-interactive=\"prc-block\/dialog\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b02&quot;}\" data-wp-key=\"93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b02\">\n<button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-trigger is-style-full-width-hack\" id=\"dialog-trigger-2\" aria-haspopup=\"dialog\" aria-controls=\"93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b02\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-interactive=\"prc-block\/dialog\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClickOpen\" type=\"button\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-trigger is-style-full-width-hack\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a data-core-button-original-text=\"Take Quiz\" id=\"core-button-1\" class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" style=\"border-radius:12px\">Take Quiz<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/button>\n\n<dialog data-wp-init--videoSupport=\"callbacks.onVideoInit\" data-wp-watch--on-close-stop-video=\"callbacks.onCloseStopVideo\" data-wp-watch--on-open-start-video=\"callbacks.onOpenStartVideo\" data-wp-watch--on-open-watch-animation-end=\"callbacks.onAnimationEnd\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);box-shadow:var(--wp--preset--shadow--deep);--wp--style--dialog-animation-duration: 500ms\" class=\"is-size-medium is-animation-fade wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element has-background has-white-background-color is-layout-flow wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element-is-layout-flow\" id=\"93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b02\" role=\"dialog\" aria-modal=\"true\" aria-labelledby=\"dialog-heading-3\" data-wp-interactive=\"prc-block\/dialog\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.onInit\" data-wp-class--is-closing=\"state.isClosing\" data-wp-on--click=\"callbacks.onBackdropClick\" data-wp-on-document--keydown=\"callbacks.onESCKey\" data-wp-watch--on-dialog-open=\"callbacks.onOpen\" data-wp-watch--on-dialog-close=\"callbacks.onClose\"><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element__close-button\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClickClose\" type=\"button\" aria-label=\"Close dialog\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-xmark\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-xmark\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/button><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element__inner\"><h2 id=\"dialog-heading-3\" class=\"screen-reader-text\"><\/h2>\n<div class=\"wp-block-prc-quiz-embeddable\" ref-id=\"222564\">Quiz cannot be embedded at this time.<\/div>\n<\/div><\/dialog>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">For centuries, scholars have debated the question: \u201cWhat is public opinion?\u201d Or, put differently, \u201cWhat is the will of the people?\u201d And for nearly as long, they have debated how best to measure it. The great political scientist V.O. Key Jr. defined public opinion as \u201cthose opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed.\u201d And while there have been many ways of assessing and measuring these \u201copinions held by private persons\u201d across the ages, by far the most common approach today is the opinion poll.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The typical opinion poll consists of a set of \u201cinterviews\u201d with people selected to be representative of a population of interest, such as all U.S. adults. These aren\u2019t like the anxiety-inducing interviews you might have for a job. In survey interviews, a pollster will ask everyone the same set of questions in the same way, then tally up the answers and report the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If the poll is designed properly, the responses collectively can describe the thinking and experiences of the much larger group of people the sample is chosen from. Our goal in this course is to demystify how this actually happens.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"what-s-on-the-syllabus\">What&#8217;s on the syllabus?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0-soup.jpg?w=310\" alt=\"Photo showing a pan of soup with a spoon picking up lettered noodles that spell &quot;Random Sampling.&quot;\" class=\"wp-image-416284\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In this course, we\u2019ll try to give you a good introduction to opinion polling. We\u2019ll talk about the kinds of polls being done and who is doing them. We\u2019ll examine how polling works and answer questions like \u201cHow can a sample of just 1,000 people accurately represent the views of more than 260 million U.S. adults?\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ll also look at how polling has changed over the years, from a time when nearly all polls were conducted on people\u2019s doorsteps, porches or in their living rooms, to today, when most people taking our polls are reading the questions on a smartphone and responding whenever it\u2019s convenient for them.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">To be sure, lots of pollsters \u2013 including us on occasion \u2013 still call people on the phone and ask them questions. And some of us still conduct paper-and-pencil surveys by mail. (Spoiler alert: We get better cooperation from potential respondents with our mail surveys than with any other method we use!)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0-gettyimages-83556531-594x594-1.jpg?w=310\" alt=\"Photo showing voters cast their ballots on Election Day November 04, 2008, at Centreville High School in Clifton, Virginia. Americans crowded polling stations Tuesday to vote in their historic election, with front-running Democrat Barack Obama seeking to become the first black US president and Republican rival John McCain battling for a comeback.  AFP Photo\/Paul J. Richards (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS\/AFP via Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-416285\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ll also acknowledge that a lot of people \u2013 including maybe you \u2013 are wondering about those election polls. Election polling didn\u2019t have a\u202fgood year in 2020. But they rebounded in 2022, producing more accurate results. Nonetheless, polling in elections still faces many challenges. There is a lot to unpack about election polls, so we\u2019ve devoted an entire lesson to this type of poll.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ll wrap up the course with a look at how you can become a good poll consumer. What can you do to make sure you\u2019re getting reliable information? How do you know which polls to trust? And if you want to understand what the public thinks about a particular issue, what is the best way to use polls to inform yourself?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;why-do-we-have-opinion-polls&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"why-do-we-have-opinion-polls\">1. Why do we have opinion polls?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/1-header.jpg\" alt=\"Photo showing Nebraskans attend a political rally in the 1870s (Smithsonian Institution Press via Flickr)\" class=\"wp-image-416288\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nebraskans attend a political rally in the 1870s (Smithsonian Institution Press via Flickr)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It turns out the word \u201cpoll\u201d originally was a synonym for \u201chead.\u201d Polls counted heads at meetings or rallies to gauge popular sentiment, as in the 1870s political rally in Nebraska shown above. Today, we use polls to count heads, too\u202f\u2013\u202fjust a little more scientifically than under the old methods. Here at Pew Research Center, polling is the primary way we find out what the public knows, thinks and wants.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"don-t-elections-tell-us-what-the-public-wants\">Don\u2019t elections tell us what the public wants?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">You might be asking yourself this question or thinking about all the other ways citizens communicate their opinions to officials, including through letters, phone calls, emails, texts, campaign contributions and even protests. All of those are indeed important ways that public opinion gets communicated, but each of them is limited in important ways.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-200-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/1-vote200px.png?w=200\" alt=\"A third or more of the public does not vote\" class=\"wp-image-416271\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Elections are very blunt. They don\u2019t tell us why people supported a particular candidate or whether the public agrees with every policy the candidate proposed. And even with a high turnout election like 2020, a third or more of the public typically does not vote. How are their opinions accounted for?&nbsp;<br>&nbsp;<br>Citizen communications to politicians, as well as more demonstrative activities like protests, can provide clearer guidance about how some people feel on certain topics. But only a minority of the public takes part in such activities, and those who do are\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/06\/24\/recent-protest-attendees-are-more-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-younger-than-americans-overall\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hardly representative<\/a>\u202fof the broader population. They tend to be more highly educated and more affluent than the average adult. Voters and those who contact public officials also tend to be older.<br><br>And one more thing: A lot of polling is conducted about topics other than those directly addressed by government. Elections do not readily answer broader questions about how people see the world \u2013 whether they believe in God, trust scientists or worry about misinformation, for example. Polls also ask about things other than opinions, such as financial circumstances, how people use technology and much more (stay tuned for Lesson 3).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"how-are-opinion-polls-better\">How are opinion polls better?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Rigorous opinion polls can overcome many of these limitations. The basic goal of a good public opinion poll is to give everyone in the population \u2013 regardless of their wealth, age, education, race, knowledge of politics or experience with it \u2013 an\u202f<em>equal voice<\/em>\u202fabout the issues of the day.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">We use a technique called <strong>random sampling<\/strong> to try to accomplish this. If it works properly, the sample we come up with for a survey can be assumed to be representative of the larger population on any question we might be interested in.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Random sampling matters because it makes sure that some voices aren\u2019t louder than others. Here\u2019s an example: Wealthier people are far more likely than others to donate to candidates running for office, and public officials hear these contributors loud and clear \u2013 even though they\u2019re a small and unrepresentative slice of the entire population. But wealthy people are no more likely to be sampled for our polls than anyone else, so their voices don\u2019t drown out the voices of others. (More on random sampling later in the course.)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"what-if-we-didn-t-have-polls\">What if we didn&#8217;t have polls?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/1-gettyimages-1295304388-170667a.jpg?w=310\" alt=\"Photo showing Reporter at news or press conference, writing notes, holding microphone. Media event.\" class=\"wp-image-416286\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Because polls can tell us things that are not available through any other method, they help serve as a check on those in power (and anyone else, for that matter) who might try to claim that they know what \u201cthe American people\u201d think or want.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Without polls, we\u2019d be back to an era of relying on so-called \u201cman on the street\u201d interviews \u2013 basically, a reporter going out and interviewing anyone available nearby. Such exercises can be interesting or fun, but they aren\u2019t a reliable way of finding out what a diverse population really thinks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"can-t-polls-do-harm-nbsp\"><strong>Can\u2019t polls do harm?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">One criticism sometimes leveled at polls is that they may be affecting the very thing they are trying to measure. In elections, one version of this is that polls promote a bandwagon effect, in which voters see that a candidate is leading in the polls and decide to \u201cget on the bandwagon\u201d and support that candidate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Another version is that polls showing one candidate with a comfortable lead may cause some voters to decide not to vote at all, on the logic that they are unlikely to affect the outcome. Neither of these situations is a good thing for a healthy democratic process!&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Some countries have banned the publication of polls close to Election Day because of such concerns. But the <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/does-knowing-whom-others-might-vote-for-change-whom-youll-vote-for\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">evidence for these kinds of effects is mixed and complicated<\/a>. And pollsters argue that polling data \u2013 whether in elections or just when issues are being debated \u2013 is just another source of information that people have a right to see and incorporate into their decision-making. Having a realistic view of what other people think might even <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/poq\/article\/80\/S1\/378\/2223197\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">turn down the heat on partisan polarization<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"extra-credit\">Extra credit<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Want to learn even more about the world of survey research? Take a look at some of the resources below from the <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">American Association for Public Opinion Research<\/a> (AAPOR), the leading\u202fassociation of public opinion and survey research professionals in the U.S.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/standards-and-ethics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Code of Ethics<\/a>&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/standards-and-ethics\/best-practices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Best Practices for Survey Research<\/a>&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/standards-and-ethics\/condemned-survey-practices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Condemned Survey Practices<\/a>&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;how-does-polling-work&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-does-polling-work\">2. How does polling work?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/3-header_howPollingWorks.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416290\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The general goal of a poll is to describe or explain something about a population of interest (for example, the general public or registered voters) by asking questions of a small number of people who represent that larger population.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Conducting a poll requires three things:&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>a set of questions to ask (a <strong>questionnaire<\/strong>)&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">a set of people to interview (a <strong>sample<\/strong>)&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\">some way of connecting the two (sometimes called the <strong>mode of interview<\/strong>).&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Once you\u2019ve conducted the interviews, you have to tally up the data and summarize the results in a way that accurately reflects what your respondents told you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Probably the most common question we get from our readers is \u201cHow do you choose who to interview?\u201d We have sharp readers! How a poll samples people for inclusion is the single most important factor determining how accurate the poll will be. We\u2019ll talk about this in detail below.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But it\u2019s important to note that the choice of a sampling method often determines what mode of interview is best. For example, if we sample telephone numbers, the obvious mode choice is a telephone survey. If we sample addresses, we can conduct either a mail survey or an in-person survey.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">All of this is a bit of a simplification, of course, but the essence of conducting a good poll is doing the best possible job with these three things: the mode, the sample and the questionnaire.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"the-mode-of-interview\">The mode of interview<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Most of the first polls back in the 1930s and \u201940s involved interviewers knocking on doors and asking questions of the people who happened to be at home. This kind of personal interviewing was a common method until the 1980s, though it\u2019s very expensive and rarely used today in the U.S. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Paper-and-pencil surveys, often delivered by mail, were popular and remain a staple of the polling world today. Telephone interviewing became widespread in the 1980s and constituted much of the polling done over the following decades.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But the rise of the internet added a new way to interview people. Today, web surveys account for the majority of all polling because they are faster and \u2013 because an interviewer is not needed \u2013 much less expensive. Typically, people are initially contacted by phone, mail or email and then invited to take a survey on the web.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-420-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/3-NPORS_featured.png?w=420\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416275\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Each method or mode of interview has strengths and weaknesses. Using a live interviewer can help persuade people to participate and keep the interview focused. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But the presence of an interviewer can also affect how people respond. Self-administered surveys, like those done on paper or online, may yield more honest and accurate answers and allow people to respond whenever it\u2019s convenient for them. They help reduce what\u2019s called <strong>social desirability bias<\/strong>, a tendency of people to answer in a way that leaves a favorable impression \u2013 for instance, saying they voted even if they didn&#8217;t.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Regardless of mode, the goal is always for all respondents to have the same experience and answer freely and thoughtfully. One of the interesting trends in polling today is the rise of <strong>multimode<\/strong> surveys \u2013 polls that use more than one method of reaching people or that give those sampled the option of responding in more than one way.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"the-sample\">The sample<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If you field a poll only among your family, friends and co-workers, you may get interesting results, but you wouldn\u2019t be able to generalize the results to people you don\u2019t know. The people in your social, religious and work circles are likely to be similar to each other \u2013 and to you \u2013 in ways that matter for their opinions and experiences. For that reason, a good poll needs a sample that includes lots of different kinds of people.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The best way to get that diversity is through something called <strong>random sampling<\/strong>, a method that gives everybody in your population of interest an equal (or at least a known) chance of being included.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">How does that work? Typical random sampling approaches include calling a random selection of telephone numbers (including cellphone numbers) or mailing a survey to a random sample of addresses.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Random phone numbers can be generated from a known set of area codes, exchanges and local groups of numbers that have been assigned to people or households. The U.S. Postal Service, meanwhile, maintains a list of all residential addresses in the U.S. These two approaches give nearly every American a chance to be polled.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Random sampling isn\u2019t perfect. Not everyone who is sampled for the survey can be contacted. And in a typical poll, most who are contacted don\u2019t agree to be interviewed. There are also some differences between those who are contacted and participate in a poll and those who don\u2019t. But pollsters can correct for this problem using a technique called <strong>weighting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How weighting works<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/1-random640px.png?w=310\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416278\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Weighting boosts the voices of people who belong to groups that are less likely to participate in polls and lowers the voices of people from groups that are more likely to take polls.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">For example, people who don\u2019t have a college degree are less likely than college graduates to participate in polls, so those who do participate are \u201cweighted up\u201d to match their actual share of the population. On the other hand, people who engage in volunteer activities tend to be more likely to participate in polls, so their responses are \u201cweighted down\u201d to accurately reflect their share of the population in the final result.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Pollsters rely on knowledge about the population from the U.S. census or other sources to guide their decisions on weighting. It\u2019s important to remember that the goal of weighting is to ensure that the voices of different groups are accurately represented in a poll\u2019s results \u2013 and that the overall result accurately represents the views of the U.S. population as a whole.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If it sounds complicated, it is. It\u2019s one of the more complex things pollsters do.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Opt-in sampling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">A lot of the polls you might see these days don\u2019t even use random sampling. Instead, they rely on various techniques to get people online to volunteer (or <strong>opt in<\/strong>) to take surveys, often in exchange for small rewards like gift cards. As a group, <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2023\/09\/07\/comparing-two-types-of-online-survey-samples\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">opt-in surveys are less accurate<\/a> than those that use random sampling. This is especially true for estimates for young adults, Hispanics and other minority groups.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Opt-in polls make up a big share of the market research world and were used by a sizable share of organizations doing presidential polling in 2020.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">How is it possible for these polls to accurately represent the population? One common way is through weighting \u2013 the same process used with random samples. But in the case of opt-in surveys, we don\u2019t have the benefit of knowing that all kinds of people and groups in the population had a chance to be included, so there\u2019s a much greater burden on weighting to make the sample match the population. Unfortunately, some of these opt-in surveys use\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2016\/05\/02\/evaluating-online-nonprobability-surveys\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">very rudimentary approaches<\/a>\u202fto weighting, which are less effective in making them representative.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A big hazard in opt-in samples: Bogus respondents<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Opt-in surveys are also vulnerable to contamination from <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2020\/02\/18\/assessing-the-risks-to-online-polls-from-bogus-respondents\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>bogus respondents<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 people who are ineligible for the survey or who provide insincere responses.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">An improbable finding from a December 2023 opt-in survey looked like an example of this. The prominent survey found that 20% of adults under 30 strongly or somewhat agreed that \u201cthe Holocaust is a myth,\u201d an implausible result given earlier polling on the subject. Pew Research Center <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2024\/03\/05\/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">repeated the question on its probability-based panel<\/a> and found that only 3% of adults under 30 agreed with this inflammatory statement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Not only did young adults stand out in the opt-in poll, 12% of Hispanics also agreed with the controversial statement about the Holocaust. Our research suggests that some people who engage in insincere responding (such as answering \u201cyes\u201d to every question) are claiming identities that they believe will give them access to more surveys and rewards. That is, they say they are Hispanic or young \u2013 but aren\u2019t really.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179108\"><img data-dominant-color=\"788789\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"525\" height=\"295\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_submarine.jpg?resize=480,270 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_submarine.jpg?resize=525,295 525w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_submarine.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179108 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #788789; width:420px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">(Dave Fliesen\/U.S. Navy via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">To help us observe this phenomenon in practice, we asked an opt-in sample to tell us whether they were licensed to drive a nuclear submarine, a qualification held by very few Americans. (While the exact number of submarine operators is unavailable, the entire U.S. Navy constitutes less than 0.2% of the adult population.) Among adults under 30 in this opt-in sample, 12% said yes. Among those claiming to be Hispanic, 24% said yes \u2013 versus 2% of non-Hispanics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, a zany question like this may inspire some silly answers. But we see similarly implausible results in opt-in surveys for more mundane questions like the receipt of certain government benefits, so the problem isn\u2019t confined to topics like nuclear subs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"the-questionnaire\">The questionnaire<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The heart of a good poll is the set of questions to be asked. Seems simple, right? After all, we ask and answer questions all day long when talking with other people.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But we also know that misunderstandings are common in human conversations. So it\u2019s important that poll questions are relatively simple, clear and understandable by people from a wide variety of backgrounds. (Check out our five-minute\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2018\/03\/21\/methods-101-video-question-wording\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Methods 101 video on writing good survey questions<\/a>.)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f4f4f4\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"879\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_W129-topline.png?resize=480,330 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_W129-topline.png?resize=782,537 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_W129-topline.png?resize=960,659 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_W129-topline.png?resize=1200,824 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_W129-topline.png?resize=1280,879 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_W129-topline.png\" alt=\"Screenshot showing one of Pew Research Center's topline questionnaires.\" class=\"wp-image-179109 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f4f4f4; width:640px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s also important to ask questions that people can answer. While that may seem obvious, you might be surprised by how many polls ask people about topics they\u2019ve never thought about or know little about. Polls also sometimes ask people to remember details about things they\u2019ve done in the past that hardly anyone could be expected to recall accurately.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Another concern is that polling questions can intentionally or unintentionally lead people to answer in a particular way, just by the way they are posed. For example, asking people whether they agree or disagree with a statement usually gets more agreement than if the statement is paired with an alternative point of view.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">A 55% majority in 1994 agreed with the statement \u201cThe best way to ensure peace is through military strength.\u201d But posed against an alternative view \u2013 \u201cGood diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace\u201d \u2013 just 36% in another poll conducted at the same time endorsed \u201cpeace through military strength.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/3-military-bar-charts.png?w=640\" alt=\"Bar chart showing how a difference in question wording can impact results of a survey\" class=\"wp-image-416280\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Don\u2019t be too suspicious about this, though. Most public pollsters are trying to get a fair reading of people\u2019s opinions. And as a consumer of polls, you can do a pretty good job of evaluating the fairness of questions by consulting the full text of the question wording (sometimes called a <strong>topline<\/strong>). Read the question aloud: If it sounds loaded to you, it probably is. And if the full text of the questionnaire isn\u2019t made available, you should be skeptical about the poll.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">At Pew Research Center, we make all our questionnaires publicly available.\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2020\/09\/PP_09.14.20_views.of_.government.topline.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Here\u2019s an example<\/a>\u202f(PDF).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Throughout the process of conducting a poll, we try to be mindful that our respondents, collectively, give us hundreds of hours of their time when they read our survey questions and provide their answers. We are grateful and honored that people trust us with their views, so it\u2019s important that we get it right when we tell the world what those views are. That\u2019s what good pollsters do.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"extra-credit-0\">Extra credit<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Our Methods 101 video series explains the basic methods we use to conduct our survey research. Here\u2019s a playlist of short videos for you to watch at your leisure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sonXfzE1hvo\">How can a survey of 1,000 people tell you what the whole U.S. thinks?\u00a0<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eFzGdQrr2K8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">How do you write survey questions that accurately measure public opinion?<\/a>\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=eRK_dXay5HY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">How does the way a poll is conducted influence the answers people give?<\/a>\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=T9dmq6Lwh24\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">What are nonprobability surveys?<\/a>\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=CV0ZCQyI9M4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">How is polling done around the world?<\/a>\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;what-are-the-different-kinds-of-polls&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-are-the-different-kinds-of-polls\">3. What are the different kinds of polls?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/2-header_gettyimages-1136585530-170667a-b-1.jpeg\" alt=\"A row of geometric blocks of different shapes and colors.\" class=\"wp-image-416294\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The term \u201cpoll\u201d is usually applied to a survey designed to measure people\u2019s opinions. But not all surveys examine opinions. In fact, even our opinion polls often include questions about people\u2019s experiences, habits or future intentions. Let\u2019s look at the variety of ways surveys are used.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"the-decennial-census-and-other-government-surveys-in-the-u-s\">The decennial census and other government surveys in the U.S.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019re like most Americans, at some point in 2020 you probably responded to a survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, asking questions about the people living in your household. This is the\u202f<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/03\/12\/what-to-know-about-the-2020-census\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">decennial census<\/a>,<\/strong> a survey mandated by the U.S. Constitution to count the nation\u2019s entire population every 10 years. (Preparations for the 2030 census are already well underway!)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"8e6a41\" data-has-transparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"1125\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_wildlife-survey-cover.png?resize=480,422 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_wildlife-survey-cover.png?resize=782,687 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_wildlife-survey-cover.png?resize=960,844 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_wildlife-survey-cover.png?resize=1200,1055 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_wildlife-survey-cover.png?resize=1280,1125 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_wildlife-survey-cover.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179098 has-transparency\" style=\"--dominant-color: #8e6a41; width:310px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">While the mammoth effort to count the population may be its most visible and challenging activity, the Census Bureau also conducts numerous other large surveys for specific purposes. These include surveys to measure crime victimization, how Americans spend their time, the health of the U.S. population and even\u202f\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/digitalmedia.fws.gov\/digital\/collection\/document\/id\/2321\/rec\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife-Associated Recreation<\/a>\u201d\u202f(PDF).&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">These government surveys typically get very high levels of cooperation from the public and are trusted by officials to provide important data to guide policymaking. At Pew Research Center, we also use them as\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2018\/12\/06\/how-asking-about-your-sleep-smoking-or-yoga-habits-can-help-pollsters-verify-their-findings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>benchmarks<\/strong><\/a>\u202fto help ensure the accuracy of our own polls.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179101\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f8f7f6\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"1186\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_slope-vote.png?resize=480,678 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_slope-vote.png?resize=782,1104 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_slope-vote.png?resize=840,1186 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_slope-vote.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179101 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f8f7f6; width:420px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"polls-about-issues\">Polls about issues<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Issue polling \u2013 our bread and butter here at the Center \u2013 is focused on opinions and experiences: what people know about an issue, how it affects them, how important they think it is and what they think should be done about it. Abortion politics provides a good example.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Since the Supreme Court\u2019s 2022 decision in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.supremecourt.gov\/opinions\/21pdf\/19-1392_6j37.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization<\/a>, Pew Research Center polling has found no dramatic shift in overall opinion about whether abortion should be legal. But we have documented a sharp rise in the importance of the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In an <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2022\/08\/23\/abortion-rises-in-importance-as-a-voting-issue-driven-by-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">August 2022 poll<\/a>, the share of registered voters who said that abortion would be very important to their midterm election vote reached 56%, up from 43% in March 2022, with virtually all of the change occurring among Democrats.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Abortion\u2019s rise in importance as a voting issue aligns with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kff.org\/womens-health-policy\/issue-brief\/addressing-abortion-access-through-state-ballot-initiatives\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">efforts in multiple states<\/a> to put constitutional amendments protecting abortion rights on the ballot for voters. In the two years after the Dobbs decision, in fact, all efforts to add protections for abortion rights were successful in the states where they were placed on the ballot. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"market-research-surveys\">Market research surveys<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-200-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/2-market_research200px.png?w=200\" alt=\"Tell us about it!\" class=\"wp-image-416276\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Businesses often conduct surveys to help them better understand consumer sentiment and preferences. While you may never have been included in an opinion poll about national policies or politics, you almost certainly have been asked by a retail store, auto repair shop, hospital, restaurant or other establishment to rate the quality of their products or services.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">A great deal of market-related survey research is done to help businesses predict demand for new and existing products or services. Among many other things, surveys like these are used to measure the size and characteristics of the audience for television and radio programming and to gauge how people are reacting to newly released movies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"election-polls\">Election polls<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">There is one other kind of poll we haven\u2019t mentioned yet: election polls. They are undoubtedly the most visible of all polls. Hundreds of them are conducted in a typical presidential election year, and they attract an enormous amount of attention. The credibility of all polling depends in large part on how election polls perform. For that reason, Lesson 4 will be devoted entirely to election polls!&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"measuring-public-opinion-without-surveys\">Measuring public opinion without surveys<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, it\u2019s also possible to get some sense of public sentiment without doing a survey. For more than a century, journalists and scholars have tried to understand election data by closely examining how voting patterns\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/uncpress.org\/book\/9780807865545\/the-third-electoral-system-1853-1892\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">relate to the characteristics<\/a>\u202fof the people living in particular locations, such as ethnic enclaves.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">And despite polling\u2019s difficulty in getting people to share their opinions in interviews, tens of millions of Americans are willing to express their views\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2019\/10\/23\/national-politics-on-twitter-small-share-of-u-s-adults-produce-majority-of-tweets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">on social media sites<\/a>\u202flike Facebook, X (formerly known as Twitter), Instagram and others. Political scientists have begun\u202f<a href=\"http:\/\/pablobarbera.com\/static\/social-media-data-generators.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">extracting information about public attitudes<\/a>\u202f(PDF) from these sources, too. Studies have also focused on deriving evidence of attitudes, such as racial animosity, from\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0047272714000929\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">an analysis of Google searches<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">But as exciting as these new methods may be, a\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article?id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0145406\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">variety of challenges<\/a>\u202fhave hindered the development of such methods as a potential replacement for surveys.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179103\"><img data-dominant-color=\"dcded6\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"520\" height=\"490\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_focus-group.png?resize=480,452 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_focus-group.png?resize=520,490 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_focus-group.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179103 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #dcded6; width:205px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most common ways of probing public opinion that doesn\u2019t involve a scientific survey is through <strong>in-depth interviews<\/strong> and <strong>focus groups<\/strong>. It\u2019s probably obvious that you can learn a lot from talking with someone in an open-ended format: what words mean to people, why they have a particular belief, how strongly they feel about an issue. These are all potentially easier to explore in a conversation than a typical polling questionnaire.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, getting a <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/decoded\/2020\/10\/05\/how-focus-groups-informed-our-study-about-nationalism-and-international-engagement-in-the-u-s-and-uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">small group of people together to talk about issues<\/a> can reveal some truths that individual interviews might not. Ideally, these \u201cfocus groups\u201d can give people a chance to openly share their perceptions, hopes, fears and ideas. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In-depth interviews and focus groups often help researchers decide to take on new topics for study that arose in the groups, and to write good questions about new topics.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"extra-credit-1\">Extra credit<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Want to learn even more? Here\u2019s a Pew Research Center reading list: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/03\/12\/what-to-know-about-the-2020-census\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">What to know about the 2020 census<\/a>\u202f&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2018\/12\/06\/how-asking-about-your-sleep-smoking-or-yoga-habits-can-help-pollsters-verify-their-findings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">How asking about your sleep, smoking or yoga habits can help pollsters verify their findings<\/a>\u202f&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/09\/21\/does-public-opinion-polling-about-issues-still-work\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Does public opinion polling about issues still work?<\/a>\u202f&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/09\/20\/polls-on-covid-19-vaccination-closely-align-with-cdc-data\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Polls on COVID-19 vaccination closely align with CDC data<\/a>\u202f&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;what-s-the-deal-with-election-polls&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-s-the-deal-with-election-polls\">4. What&#8217;s the deal with election polls?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179382\"><img data-dominant-color=\"82867b\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_featured-2.webp?resize=480,270 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_featured-2.webp?resize=782,440 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_featured-2.webp?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_featured-2.webp?resize=1200,675 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_featured-2.webp?resize=1280,720 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_featured-2.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179382 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #82867b; width:885px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Voters fill in their ballots at polling booths in Concord, New Hampshire, on Nov. 3, 2020. Joseph Prezioso\/AFP via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-310-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/2-gettyimages-1064209130-170667a.jpg?w=310\" alt=\"British London satire caricatures comics cartoon illustrations: Horse race\" class=\"wp-image-416283\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">An election poll is pretty much what it sounds like: a poll conducted before (or sometimes after) an election that focuses on the election. You\u2019ll often hear about election polls when they\u2019re being cited to show who\u2019s ahead and who\u2019s behind in the race \u2013 the \u201chorse race.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Though it often attracts the most attention, discovering the level of support each candidate has \u2013 or even forecasting the outcome of the election \u2013 isn\u2019t the most important reason election polls are conducted.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"what-are-election-polls-used-for\">What are election polls used for?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Election polls are particularly useful for understanding the <em>meaning<\/em> of the election. Polls can help clarify what voters \u2013 and nonvoters \u2013 are saying with their actions.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s a short list of how election polls are used:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>They help us identify <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/10\/26\/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>what kinds of people<\/em><\/a> are voting for which candidate.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>They help explain the <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2022\/08\/23\/abortion-rises-in-importance-as-a-voting-issue-driven-by-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>issues and concerns<\/em><\/a><em> <\/em>that may be leading to a choice for a particular candidate.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>They provide insight into <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipsos.com\/en-us\/news-polls\/medill-npr-nonvoters-2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>why some people vote and others do not<\/em><\/a>, including differences in engagement and interest between supporters of each candidate.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>They reveal <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2020\/10\/09\/voter-engagement-and-interest-voting-by-mail-and-in-person\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>how, when and where people cast their ballots<\/em><\/a> \u2013 for example, whether it\u2019s on Election Day or early, or by mail or in person.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>They describe how satisfied people are with their choice of candidates, for instance, or whether they find a campaign informative.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>They can tell us <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2020\/11\/20\/sharp-divisions-on-vote-counts-as-biden-gets-high-marks-for-his-post-election-conduct\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>how the public judges the election process and reacts to the outcome<\/em><\/a> of the election.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>For those involved in election campaigns, polls can also provide important strategic information: where and when to campaign, which groups to try to appeal to, which messages are likely to work.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"how-are-election-polls-conducted-nbsp\"><strong>How are election polls conducted?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The quick answer is \u2026 just like other polls. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Like all polls, election polls have to gather an accurate sample of the population and an accurate measurement of the subjects of interest. To achieve this accuracy, election polling has evolved just like other polling has.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179104\"><img data-dominant-color=\"b2c0bc\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"841\" height=\"823\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_poll-diversity.png?resize=480,470 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_poll-diversity.png?resize=782,765 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_poll-diversity.png?resize=841,823 841w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_poll-diversity.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179104 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #b2c0bc; width:420px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">We <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2023\/04\/19\/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tracked the methods<\/a> used by polling organizations in election years between 2000 and 2022 and found that online election polling \u2013 especially with opt-in sampling \u2013 grew rapidly after 2008 and is now widespread. Live interviewer telephone polling, on the other hand, dwindled after 2012.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Beyond the growth of online opt-in polling, a couple of other things are apparent in this colorful chart. One is growth in the sheer number of pollsters conducting national election polls \u2013 more than twice as many in 2022 as in 2000. Cheap opt-in methods have allowed a lot more people to claim the title of \u201cpollster.\u201d The other thing that stands out is growth in the diversity of methods now in use. Pollsters are trying out lots of approaches!&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"what-s-different-about-election-polls-nbsp\"><strong>What\u2019s different about election polls?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">There is one thing that\u2019s unique about preelection polls. Because most of them purport to describe the views of the people who will actually vote, rather than the general public, they have to determine which people among those interviewed will actually turn out. This is not an easy task.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/4-vote.png?w=97\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416303\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Even with voter turnout in 2020 that eclipsed 100-year records, a third of the U.S. eligible adult population did <em>not <\/em>cast a ballot. Not everyone who says in a poll that they intend to vote actually does, and some people who tell a pollster they don\u2019t plan to vote ultimately do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, as a group, nonvoters and irregular voters often differ from regular voters in terms of which candidate they prefer. Figuring out who will <em>really <\/em>vote can make a difference in what the poll finds about, say, the composition of the voting public. That may be a particularly hard job in a high-turnout election, when people who haven\u2019t voted in the recent past suddenly show up, confounding pollster estimates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"are-election-polls-accurate-nbsp\"><strong>Are election polls accurate?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">You might be surprised to hear that election polling in the U.S. and around the world has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-018-0315-6.epdf?author_access_token=Dv9fzB5mxgATeTZwsxLioNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PalVG3evbr7AhAkXUDTrGPuxQLUa5my1W6hESsmpNFdYsKXZoBT0m-zNSyqIupcNM3PbrEMvayUOKxPYc_acJq1F0WQDhCRL87YXwQ3q4FRg%3D%3D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">good track record for accuracy<\/a>. A comprehensive study found that polls taken shortly before an election had an average error of less than 2 percentage points in estimates of support for a given party or candidate. But preelection polling was less accurate in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections than it had been in the previous several contests, overstating support for Democratic candidates. Historically, polling errors have sometimes favored Democrats and sometimes Republicans, with no clear tendency.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The errors in 2016 <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/AAPOR-2016-Election-Polling-Report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mostly affected state polls<\/a>, but many of the errors were in critical battleground states that contributed to Donald Trump winning the presidency. National polling that year was quite accurate, but <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-real-story-of-2016\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quantitative forecasts of the election<\/a> \u2013 some of which gave Hillary Clinton a greater than 90% chance of winning \u2013 may have undermined public confidence in the polls by leading many observers to believe the outcome was far more certain than the polls actually indicated.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Despite efforts to correct the problems of 2016, even larger errors <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">affected both the state and national polls<\/a> in 2020.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Pollsters scrambled to improve their methods and in 2022 produced <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/2022-election-polling-accuracy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">much more accurate results<\/a> in key state elections. But fears remain that presidential polling may again struggle to adequately represent support for Trump.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Because \u2013 fairly or unfairly \u2013 the outcome of elections is used to judge the accuracy of polling, it\u2019s useful to understand the size of the errors we are talking about. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">American Association for Public Opinion Research<\/a> (or AAPOR, the professional association for the survey research field), national polls in 2020, on average, overstated Joe Biden\u2019s margin over Trump by 3.9 percentage points, the largest such error since 1980. Even though his support was overstated in the polls, Biden won the election, so the polling errors were not as obvious as in 2016. But with a public closely divided between the two political parties, it\u2019s especially crucial for the polling community to minimize the size of the errors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, it\u2019s important for polling consumers (that\u2019s you!) to understand polling\u2019s limitations. The <strong>margin of error<\/strong> you may have heard about is often as big as or bigger than the difference in support between two candidates in a close race. And the traditional margin of error doesn\u2019t <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2016\/09\/08\/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">capture all of the sources of error<\/a> affecting polls. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"extra-credit-nbsp\"><strong>Extra credit<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Want to learn even more? Here\u2019s a reading list:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/the-death-of-polling-is-greatly-exaggerated\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Death Of Polling Is Greatly Exaggerated<\/a>\u202f(FiveThirtyEight)&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2016\/01\/07\/can-likely-voter-models-be-improved\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?<\/a>\u202f(Pew Research Center)&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/07\/21\/a-conversation-about-u-s-election-polling-problems-in-2020\/%C2%A0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Q&amp;A: A conversation about U.S. election polling problems in 2020<\/a>\u202f(Pew Research Center)&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2021\/03\/02\/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">What 2020\u2019s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling<\/a>\u202f(Pew Research Center)&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;is-accurate-polling-becoming-harder-to-do&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"is-accurate-polling-becoming-harder-to-do\">5. Is accurate polling becoming harder to do?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-dominant-color=\"c1b09e\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #c1b09e;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_accuracy.png?resize=480,270 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_accuracy.png?resize=782,440 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_accuracy.png?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_accuracy.png?resize=1200,675 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_accuracy.png?resize=1280,720 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_accuracy.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179381 not-transparent\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Polls received a lot of criticism after the 2020 U.S. general election. Polls showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump throughout the fall campaign season. He did win the election, but not by as large a margin or in as many states as the polls led people to expect.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The polling profession is making progress in understanding what went wrong in 2020. But the obstacles facing polling have been growing steadily over the past few decades, and election polls face unique challenges, including having to anticipate who is actually going to vote. These obstacles have required pollsters of all kinds to adjust their methods and devote considerably more effort to obtain accurate results.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"it-s-getting-harder-to-reach-people-and-persuade-them-to-participate-in-a-poll\">It\u2019s getting harder to reach people and persuade them to participate in a poll<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest obstacle surveys face today is that it has gotten much harder to reach people and persuade them to consent to an interview. This is mostly a consequence of lifestyle changes \u2013 people seem to have busier lives \u2013 coupled with a growing wariness about answering calls from unknown numbers or cooperating with requests for information from a person or organization they are not familiar with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The nature of the problem is evident in the\u202fchart below, which shows Pew Research Center\u2019s telephone survey response rates over the past 25 years or so. (The response rate is an estimate of the share of households we try to reach that ultimately complete an interview.)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f7f7f6\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"890\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_telephone.png?resize=480,509 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_telephone.png?resize=782,829 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_telephone.png?resize=840,890 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/PM_2024.06.25_polling-basics_telephone.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-179105 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f7f7f6; width:420px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In part because of this decline in telephone response rates, Pew Research Center decided a few years back to stop relying primarily on telephone surveys and instead\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2024\/06\/26\/q-and-a-what-is-the-american-trends-panel-and-how-has-it-changed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">switch to using rigorous online surveys<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">While telephone surveys can still provide accurate data, online surveys provide some advantages that make them an attractive alternative. Research has shown, for example, that the\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2017\/08\/04\/personal-finance-questions-elicit-slightly-different-answers-in-phone-surveys-than-online\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quality of answers people give in self-administered surveys is often higher<\/a>\u202fthan in surveys with an interviewer. And not needing interviewers means online surveys are usually less expensive than telephone surveys, sometimes significantly so.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">That said, online surveys aren\u2019t immune to the problems faced by other kinds of surveys. In the 2020 election, no type of survey stood out as especially more accurate than the others, and all kinds of surveys had problems.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"some-people-are-more-likely-than-others-to-take-polls\">Some people are more likely than others to take polls<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">As we noted in Lesson 2, another challenge for pollsters \u2013 especially election pollsters \u2013 is that people with higher levels of education tend to be more willing to participate in surveys, resulting in samples that overrepresent those with college degrees (i.e., more people in your sample have a degree than would if the selection were <em>truly <\/em>random).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/4-communicate.png?w=113\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416304\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The same is true for people with higher incomes. And perhaps not surprisingly, people who are engaged with politics and public affairs are more willing to take polls that deal with these subjects.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Fortunately, data from the U.S. census can serve as a benchmark to ensure that survey samples match the total U.S. population on characteristics like education, age and voter registration. Using this information, we\u2019re able to give greater weight to underrepresented groups in the sample so their voice matches their share in the population.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Other problems can\u2019t be fixed by consulting census data. In 2020, for example, there was a general tendency for Biden supporters to be more likely than Trump supporters to cooperate with polling requests, according to a\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/www-archive.aapor.org\/Education-Resources\/Reports\/2020-Pre-Election-Polling-An-Evaluation-of-the-202.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">review of 2020 election polls<\/a>\u202fby the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the major professional association of U.S. pollsters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Election polling in the U.S. and around the world has been\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/rdcu.be\/ISdT\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quite accurate<\/a>\u202ffor decades because supporters of different parties and candidates have seemed equally willing (or unwilling) to participate. Right now, we can\u2019t know whether this is a short-term issue or something polls will have to deal with going forward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"so-can-we-still-trust-polls\">So, can we still trust polls?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s important to put the 2020 performance of election polls into perspective. The errors were consequential, to be sure, and very sizable compared with most election polls. But they were not particularly large in absolute terms \u2013 just a few percentage points, on average, on each candidate\u2019s support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s also crucial to understand that most polls are <em>not <\/em>about elections. Instead, they aim to capture people\u2019s views on the key issues of the day, the realities of their lives, such as their employment, lifestyle activities or health care, where they get their information, and other subjects.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This kind of polling is important because it provides an independent source of information about what Americans experience and what they believe \u2013 without which we\u2019d be left with whatever pundits, parties and public officials claim the public is thinking.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-420-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/4-IssuePolling_topic.jpg?w=420\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416274\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Fortunately,\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/09\/21\/does-public-opinion-polling-about-issues-still-work\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the news is better\u202f<\/a>when it comes to this type of issue polling. We have a lot of evidence that polls that are weighted to match the population on important demographic categories do a good job.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">And when it comes to issue polling, errors in accurately representing the share of Biden or Trump voters\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2021\/03\/02\/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">make very little difference in the results<\/a>. For example, small errors in candidate support are less meaningful when trying to understand how people feel about abortion, the budget deficit, foreign aid, climate change or other issues. Plus, just because someone supports a certain candidate doesn\u2019t mean they agree with that candidate on every issue.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In sum, pollsters recognize the challenges they are facing and are working hard to ensure that their work continues to accurately represent the views of the public. One way this is happening is through the growth of different ways of doing polls, some of which may be less reliable than others. Experimentation is a good thing, but it makes the job of a poll consumer \u2013 you \u2013 much harder. Our last lesson will focus on how you can become a more astute reader of the polls.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"extra-credit-2\">Extra credit<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Want to learn even more? Here&#8217;s a reading list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2024\/06\/26\/q-and-a-what-is-the-american-trends-panel-and-how-has-it-changed\/\">Q&amp;A: What is the American Trends Panel, and how has it changed?<\/a> (Pew Research Center)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls<\/a>\u202f(AAPOR)&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/2022-election-polling-accuracy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Polls Were Historically Accurate in 2022<\/a> (FiveThirtyEight)&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/12\/23\/2024-election-polls-guide-00133098\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Your guide to the chaotic 2024 polling year ahead<\/a> (Politico)&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;what-should-you-look-for-in-a-poll&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"what-should-you-look-for-in-a-poll\">6. What should you look for in a poll?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/5-header_gettyimages-1090514994-170667a-copy.jpeg\" alt=\"Large group of avocados placed in a pattern where the one in the middle is cut in half, one of a kind\" class=\"wp-image-416305\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If it\u2019s true that \u201cyou are what you eat,\u201d then it\u2019s also true that what you know about public opinion depends on your diet of polls. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">When nutritionists tell you to \u201ceat right,\u201d they usually mean that you should eat high-quality foods and have a balanced diet. Same with polls: Try to consume high-quality polling and limit your intake of junk polls. And if you want to better understand a topic, look at a variety of survey questions about it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"how-do-i-know-what-s-high-quality-polling\">How do I know what\u2019s high-quality polling?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The easiest way is to rely on polling from organizations with a track record in survey research, like Pew Research Center or Gallup (you knew I\u2019d say that, didn\u2019t you?). Major media organizations like Fox News, CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC and The Washington Post also have dedicated teams that conduct regular, high-quality polling on the issues of the day, as well as about elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/5-thumbsup.png?w=97\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416307\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Many private survey companies and university research centers do polling of their own, sometimes in partnership with news organizations (for example, SSRS and CNN, NORC and The Associated Press or Siena College and The New York Times). Other universities that conduct polls include Monmouth, Quinnipiac and Marist. Of course, just because you haven\u2019t heard of a particular polling organization doesn\u2019t necessarily mean its results are wrong.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Critics of polling sometimes say that polls are designed to promote a particular point of view. While it\u2019s always possible to find a poll or individual question that might be biased, there are at least two reasons to be skeptical that intentional bias is widespread in public polling.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">First, all the organizations mentioned above \u2013 and others \u2013 have been around and doing polling for many years. They have reputations to protect, both among their audiences and among their peers in the polling community. (And believe me, we carefully watch what our peers do and vice versa.) If a particular poll publishes a questionable result, another polling organization will sometimes conduct a similar poll to see if it can confirm the result.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Second, you can usually make a reasonable assessment of the trustworthiness of a poll yourself. A reputable polling organization will make available some basic information about how the poll was conducted, how the questions were asked and what questions were asked. If the organization won\u2019t provide that information, you shouldn\u2019t trust its polls. (The major association of polling professionals, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, or AAPOR, has a\u202flist of polling organizations\u202fthat have\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/aapor.org\/standards-and-ethics\/transparency-initiative\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">committed to transparency<\/a>.)&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"ok-i-ve-found-some-info-about-how-a-poll-was-done-but-what-exactly-am-i-looking-for-nbsp\"><strong>OK, I\u2019ve found some info about how a poll was done. But what exactly am I looking for?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/5-clipboard.png?w=77\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416306\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">There should be a <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/social-trends\/2024\/02\/22\/race-lgbtq-in-schools-methodology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">methodology statement<\/a> and a <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/social-trends\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/02\/ST_24.02.22_lgbtq-race-in-schools_topline.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">list of the questions asked<\/a>, which, along with the description of the findings, should enable you to answer questions like these:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>Who conducted the poll, and who sponsored it?\u202f<\/strong>Sponsorship can provide some clues about possible bias or agenda.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>Who was interviewed?<\/strong>\u202fWas it all adults in the population, just the people in one state,\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2017\/02\/16\/does-poll-include-or-exclude-nonvoters\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">only registered voters<\/a>, or some special subgroup in the population such as teachers or people who home-school their children?&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>How was the poll conducted?\u202f<\/strong>Was it by telephone, mail, online, in person? No method is perfect, but this information should always be disclosed.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>How were people selected for the poll?\u202f<\/strong>Were they selected randomly, or were they allowed to \u201copt in\u201d to be a part of it? This can sometimes be difficult to determine, but\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2017\/05\/12\/methods-101-video-random-sampling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">random samples<\/a>\u202f(also called \u201cprobability samples\u201d)\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2020\/02\/18\/assessing-the-risks-to-online-polls-from-bogus-respondents\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">usually<\/a>\u202fare\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2023\/09\/07\/comparing-two-types-of-online-survey-samples\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">better samples<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>When was the poll done?\u202f<\/strong>Public opinion on most issues is remarkably stable, so you don\u2019t necessarily need a recent poll about an issue to get a sense of what people think about it. But outside events can and do change public opinion, especially when people are first learning about a new topic. It\u2019s also true that polls taken immediately after a dramatic event may overstate the event\u2019s impact on public opinion.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>How many people were interviewed?\u202f<\/strong>A poll with more interviews is usually better, but there\u2019s no hard-and-fast rule. A national poll with only 500 respondents, for example, <em>can <\/em>measure views nationally, but it will generally not be able to break out the views of smaller groups in the population, like Black or Hispanic adults. And if the poll uses inexpensive opt-in participants to pad its sample size, there may be no additional value added.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>Was the poll weighted?\u202fIf so, how?<\/strong> This is one of the more technical topics in polling, but a good poll almost certainly has been weighted \u2013 that is, statistically adjusted to correct for the inevitable difficulties in reaching a representative sample, as mentioned in Lesson 2. Polls should state whether or not they are weighted, and good polls should provide details about the weighting. The absence of this information is a red flag.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li><strong>Do the poll\u2019s questions look like they are neutral and fair?\u202f<\/strong>You may not be an expert on polling or the subject of the poll, but you can read a question and make a judgment as to whether the pollster is trying to get a particular answer (again, review Lesson 2). Be sure to look at <em>all <\/em>the questions in the poll, too: Sometimes a question asked earlier in a poll can affect how later questions are answered. This\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2018\/03\/21\/methods-101-video-question-wording\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">short video<\/a>\u202fprovides more detail about best practices in writing survey questions.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If you are looking at election polls specifically, all of the above matters, and there are\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/08\/05\/key-things-to-know-about-election-polling-in-the-united-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a few additional things<\/a>\u202fto be aware of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"why-should-i-turn-to-polls-to-understand-public-opinion\">Why should I turn to polls to understand public opinion?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Polls aren\u2019t the only way to learn about public opinion, but they are the most comprehensive and least biased way.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Calls and letters to lawmakers provide a view of public opinion, but they\u2019re limited to those who feel strongly about an issue and have the time, energy and skills to craft and send a message. Talking to your friends may give you a sense of how they feel about a subject, but your friends are what we call a \u201cself-selected sample\u201d and can\u2019t represent the range of experiences and opinions found among the larger population of your country, state or even local community.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">By contrast, polls work the way democracy is supposed to work: They give everyone an equal chance to be heard. Good opinion polls represent the full range of views in a population.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-640-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/5-whyPolls.png?w=640\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416281\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019re trying to learn what the public thinks about a subject, it\u2019s important to remember that no single survey question can provide a perfect view of public opinion on an issue. Most issues are complicated and multifaceted. Moreover, the specific words used in a question may evoke different responses than alternative words that seem similar to the researcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">For this reason, we highly recommend that you look at a variety of measures of opinion on a topic, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list has-medium-font-size\">\n<li>How important is the issue to people, especially in relation to other issues?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How much do people know about the issue?&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How has opinion on the issue changed over time?&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How are different groups experiencing and thinking about an issue?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Can data from sources other than surveys help us understand what surveys tell us?&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Pew Research Center tries to provide that kind of variety in many of our reports. But you can also look for questions about a topic from many different polling organizations. We\u2019d particularly recommend polls by Gallup, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and KFF (for health-related public opinion). You can search a database of our survey questions\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/question-search\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h2 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;a-few-last-thoughts&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"a-few-last-thoughts\">A few last thoughts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Pew Research Center has an <a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/about\/research-teams\/survey-methods-team\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">entire team<\/a>\u202fdevoted to studying how polling works and how to make it better. We provide advice and guidance to the research teams at the Center and also write a lot about\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/topic\/methodological-research\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the work we are doing<\/a>\u202fto continuously improve our polling. To keep up with\u202four work, follow us on\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pewmethods\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">X (formerly Twitter<\/a>)\u202for sign up for our\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/mailchi.mp\/pewresearch\/methods-newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quarterly Methods newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">We hope you\u2019ve found this course helpful and easy to understand. We\u2019d love your feedback! We\u2019re also interested in your suggestions for which topics to tackle next. Send us a note at\u202f<a href=\"mailto:minicourses@pewresearch.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">minicourses@pewresearch.org<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"test-your-knowledge\">Test your knowledge.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Now that you\u2019ve finished the course, it\u2019s time to find out just how much you learned about polling.&nbsp;Take our 10-question quiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-6264ac2c wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\"><div class=\"is-style-standard wp-block-prc-block-dialog\" data-wp-interactive=\"prc-block\/dialog\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b03&quot;}\" data-wp-key=\"93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b03\">\n<button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-trigger is-style-full-width-hack\" id=\"dialog-trigger-5\" aria-haspopup=\"dialog\" aria-controls=\"93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b03\" data-wp-bind--aria-expanded=\"state.isOpen\" data-wp-interactive=\"prc-block\/dialog\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClickOpen\" type=\"button\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-trigger is-style-full-width-hack\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:12px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button final-quiz-button\"><a data-core-button-original-text=\"Take Quiz\" id=\"core-button-4\" class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" style=\"border-radius:12px\">Take Quiz<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/button>\n\n<dialog data-wp-init--videoSupport=\"callbacks.onVideoInit\" data-wp-watch--on-close-stop-video=\"callbacks.onCloseStopVideo\" data-wp-watch--on-open-start-video=\"callbacks.onOpenStartVideo\" data-wp-watch--on-open-watch-animation-end=\"callbacks.onAnimationEnd\" style=\"padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);box-shadow:var(--wp--preset--shadow--deep);--wp--style--dialog-animation-duration: 500ms\" class=\"is-size-medium is-animation-fade wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element has-background has-white-background-color is-layout-flow wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element-is-layout-flow\" id=\"93f77c03-582a-4122-8394-858945581b03\" role=\"dialog\" aria-modal=\"true\" aria-labelledby=\"dialog-heading-6\" data-wp-interactive=\"prc-block\/dialog\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.onInit\" data-wp-class--is-closing=\"state.isClosing\" data-wp-on--click=\"callbacks.onBackdropClick\" data-wp-on-document--keydown=\"callbacks.onESCKey\" data-wp-watch--on-dialog-open=\"callbacks.onOpen\" data-wp-watch--on-dialog-close=\"callbacks.onClose\"><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element__close-button\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClickClose\" type=\"button\" aria-label=\"Close dialog\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-xmark\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-xmark\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/button><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-dialog-element__inner\"><h2 id=\"dialog-heading-6\" class=\"screen-reader-text\"><\/h2>\n<div class=\"wp-block-prc-quiz-embeddable\" ref-id=\"222575\">Quiz cannot be embedded at this time.<\/div>\n<\/div><\/dialog>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\" id=\"invite-a-friend\">Invite a friend.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">If you enjoyed the course, we\u2019d be honored if you would&nbsp;recommend it to your friends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks for reading, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-2c90304e wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignleft size-200-wide\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/0-keeter_mug.jpg?w=200\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-416268\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Scott Keeter<br><\/strong>Senior Survey Advisor<br>Pew Research Center<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? 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