{"id":262074,"date":"2025-06-26T09:58:54","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T13:58:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?post_type=feature&#038;p=262074"},"modified":"2026-09-17T12:17:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T16:17:04","slug":"how-changes-in-turnout-and-vote-choice-powered-trumps-victory-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"feature","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/feature\/how-changes-in-turnout-and-vote-choice-powered-trumps-victory-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"How Changes in Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump\u2019s Victory in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide is-horizontal__on-mobile__vertical has-sans-serif-font-family has-small-font-size is-content-justification-space-between is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-93c2ce85 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" 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Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump\u2019s Victory in 2024<\/h1>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-bd6cbb4d wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-bylines-display is-horizontal is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-prc-block-bylines-display-is-layout-cbcdc57d wp-block-prc-block-bylines-display-is-layout-flex\" class=\"wp-block-prc-block-bylines-display__bylines\"><span class=\"wp-block-prc-block-bylines-display__prefix\">By<\/span> <a rel=\"author\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/hannah-hartig\/\" aria-label=\"View author archive for Hannah Hartig\">Hannah Hartig<\/a><span class=\"prc-platform-staff-bylines__separator\">, <\/span><a rel=\"author\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/scott-keeter\/\" aria-label=\"View author archive for Scott Keeter\">Scott Keeter<\/a><span class=\"prc-platform-staff-bylines__separator\">, <\/span><a rel=\"author\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/andrew-daniller\/\" aria-label=\"View author archive for Andrew Daniller\">Andrew Daniller<\/a><span class=\"prc-platform-staff-bylines__separator\">, <\/span><a rel=\"author\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/nick-zanetti\/\" aria-label=\"View author archive for Nick Zanetti\">Nick Zanetti<\/a><span class=\"prc-platform-staff-bylines__separator\">, <\/span><a rel=\"author\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/alissa-scheller\/\" aria-label=\"View author archive for Alissa Scheller\">Alissa Scheller<\/a> <span class=\"prc-platform-staff-bylines__and-separator\">and<\/span> <a rel=\"author\" href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/staff\/reem-nadeem\/\" aria-label=\"View author archive for Reem Nadeem\">Reem Nadeem<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"font-size:12px;letter-spacing:1px;margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30)\" class=\"wp-block-post-date has-text-align-center\"><time datetime=\"2025-06-26T09:58:54-04:00\">June 26, 2025<\/time><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent presidential elections have featured a lot of continuity. In a politically polarized America, the vast majority of voters stick with the same party from election to election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But in a closely divided country, modest shifts have meant that control of the presidency has swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. Joe Biden won the 2020 election by 4.4 percentage points. Four years later, Donald Trump won by 1.5 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-640-wide\"><img data-dominant-color=\"e8e0e0\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #e8e0e0;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/06\/PP_2026.6.26_validated-voters-scroll.png?resize=480,225 480w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/06\/PP_2026.6.26_validated-voters-scroll.png?resize=782,367 782w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/06\/PP_2026.6.26_validated-voters-scroll.png?resize=960,450 960w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/06\/PP_2026.6.26_validated-voters-scroll.png?resize=1200,563 1200w, https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/06\/PP_2026.6.26_validated-voters-scroll.png?resize=1280,600 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"300\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/06\/PP_2026.6.26_validated-voters-scroll.png?w=640\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-263397 not-transparent\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This roughly 6-point swing in the popular vote margin was the result of people changing something about their behavior between 2020 and 2024. To uncover the movement, we need to be able to see how individuals changed over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pew Research Center\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>American Trends Panel<\/strong> includes about 9,000 voting-eligible adults. By cross-referencing official voting records, we were able to verify&nbsp;<strong>whether they voted&nbsp;<\/strong>in recent elections. Those who voted were asked <em>how<\/em> they voted, and nonvoters were asked which candidate they preferred.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Panel data like this lets us track the same people over time, which allows us to separate people who voted for the same party\u2019s candidate in both years from three kinds of <strong>changers<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Switchers <\/strong>(people who switch their vote from one party\u2019s candidate to another\u2019s)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Drop-offs<\/strong> (those who voted in 2020 but didn\u2019t in 2024)\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>New and returning voters <\/strong>(those who voted in 2024 but did not vote in 2020).\u200b<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s see what happened. \u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull is-light validated-voters-background\" style=\"margin-top:-250px;min-height:100vh;aspect-ratio:unset;\" id=\"validated-voters-cover\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-ui-white-background-color has-background-dim-100 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-640-wide validated-voters-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/06\/sankey_1.png\" alt=\"\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2.0810893201910377;object-fit:cover\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-1 wp-block-paragraph\">Donald Trump won the popular vote in 2024 by a margin of 1.5 percentage points, receiving 49.8% of the vote to Kamala Harris\u2019 48.3%.&nbsp;\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-2 wp-block-paragraph\">Four years earlier,&nbsp;Biden defeated Trump by 51.3% to 46.9%. What accounted for the different outcomes?\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-3 wp-block-paragraph\">To fully answer that question, there\u2019s one more group to consider: In both elections, more than a third of the eligible electorate did not vote.&nbsp;\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-4 wp-block-paragraph\">Looking at all Americans who were eligible to vote in 2024, nearly one-quarter were&nbsp;<strong><em>changers&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong>who did something different in 2024 than in 2020: Some switched their vote&nbsp;<strong>(switchers),<\/strong>&nbsp;some stayed home after voting in 2020&nbsp;<strong>(drop-offs),<\/strong>&nbsp;and others turned out in 2024 after not voting in 2020&nbsp;<strong>(new and returning voters).<\/strong>&nbsp;\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-5 wp-block-paragraph\">In 2024, Trump held on to most of those who backed him in 2020: 85% of his 2020 voters voted for him again in 2024. But 3%&nbsp;<strong>switched<\/strong>&nbsp;to Harris and 11%&nbsp;<strong>dropped off<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 they didn&#8217;t vote at all in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-6 wp-block-paragraph\">Harris retained a smaller share of Biden\u2019s voters: 79%.&nbsp;\u200bAnother 15% of Biden\u2019s voters&nbsp;dropped off&nbsp;in 2024, and 5% switched&nbsp;and voted for Trump.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-7 wp-block-paragraph\">Another factor that helped Trump: <strong>new and returning voters<\/strong> \u2013 including those who were too young to vote in 2020. A little more than a quarter of those who&nbsp;<strong>did not vote in 2020 <\/strong>turned out in 2024. Trump won somewhat more of those voters than Harris did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-8 wp-block-paragraph\">Each group of changers \u2013 the<strong>&nbsp;switchers<\/strong>, who switched their vote from one party&#8217;s candidate to another&#8217;s &#8230;\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-9 wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230; the&nbsp;<strong>new and returning voters<\/strong>, who voted in 2024 but not in 2020 &#8230;\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-10 wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026 and the&nbsp;<strong>drop-offs<\/strong>, who voted in 2020 but didn&#8217;t in 2024 &#8230;\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"validated-voters-scrolly scene-11 wp-block-paragraph\">contributed a small part of the change between elections.\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-prc-platform-feature-loader\" id=\"js-validated-voters\"><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"validated-voters-final-graph\"><em>For more information on who voted in the 2024 presidential election and how they voted, read \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2025\/06\/26\/behind-trumps-2024-victory-a-more-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-voter-coalition\/\">Behind Trump\u2019s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition<\/a>.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this interactive feature, explore how changes between the 2020 and 2024 elections in how \u2013 and whether \u2013 people voted helped to return President Trump to 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