{"id":186923,"date":"2024-09-11T13:58:50","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T17:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?post_type=decoded&p=186923"},"modified":"2024-09-11T14:33:32","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T18:33:32","slug":"pew-research-centers-tips-for-journalists-covering-polls-during-election-season-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"decoded","link":"https:\/\/alpha.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/decoded\/2024\/09\/11\/pew-research-centers-tips-for-journalists-covering-polls-during-election-season-and-beyond\/","title":{"rendered":"Pew Research Center\u2019s tips for journalists covering polls \u2013 during election season and beyond"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Pew Research Center illustration<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re in the thick of election season and political polls are everywhere, with good reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surveys can give insights into more than just the presidential horse race. They can tell us how the public feels about specific issues, give us a sense of people\u2019s political priorities, and more. A well-designed poll gives everyone in the population an equal voice, providing information that isn\u2019t available anywhere else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At Pew Research Center, we conduct public opinion research to inform people about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the United States and the world. Below, we\u2019ve compiled some tips for journalists who use polling in their work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How can journalists use polls in their reporting?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Surveys provide unique insights about people\u2019s views and experiences. These data-based facts can be widely applied to journalists\u2019 work. Journalists can always interview a few voters for this perspective, of course, but a good survey provides a systematic and representative picture of public opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to idea generation and writing, polling data can spark research questions and story ideas. For example, reporters can use surveys to show how standalone stats \u2013 say, unemployment<\/a> or crime rates<\/a> \u2013 are actually being experienced by people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Survey results can also raise new questions or provide data to back up what already seems to be true. For example, our surveys find bipartisan support for several changes in election procedures<\/a>, like making Election Day a holiday. Pointing to this finding could be a way for journalists to ask their local elected leaders about their own stance on broadly popular ideas. Our surveys also show that young people are less likely to seek out news about politics than older people<\/a>. They\u2019re also less likely to vote. Highlighting this trend would be a data-centric way for a local reporter to justify a story focusing on young people in their community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How are polls generally conducted these days?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Most polls used to be conducted by phone. Now, most are conducted online or with a combination of online and phone interviews. At Pew Research Center, most of our domestic surveys fall into the latter category: We typically poll Americans online and by phone<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Just since 2016, there has been considerable methodological change<\/a> in the polling industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some 61% of U.S. polling organizations that conducted and publicly released national surveys in both 2016 and 2022 had changed their methods by 2022. The reason is that polling has gotten much harder and more expensive to do well. It\u2019s more difficult to reach people and persuade them to participate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has led to two big changes. First, high-quality polling that uses random sampling<\/a> \u2013 where every person in the population has a known chance of being included \u2013 has increasingly adopted residential address-based methods of reaching people (though some high-quality telephone polling is still being conducted).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, there has been rapid growth in inexpensive online polling that uses opt-in sampling, where people may volunteer to participate in exchange for money or other rewards. Unfortunately, our research has shown that this kind of polling is prone to much larger errors than surveys that use random sampling, especially for subgroups like young adults or Hispanic people<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How are election surveys unique? What do they usually measure, and when are they most accurate? <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Election polls are perhaps best known for giving a snapshot of the horse race \u2013 the level of support for the major candidates. A unique feature is that such polls not only measure candidate preference but also usually attempt to identify who will actually vote. This is not easy: A lot of people who say they will vote don\u2019t show up, and some who say they won\u2019t vote will, in fact, turn out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But election polls measure much more than that. They identify why people are voting or not voting, what kinds of people are voting for each candidate, what issues and concerns are motivating their participation, how satisfied they are with the choices they have, and how much they trust the process to be fair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a close election, the horse race numbers must be extremely accurate to correctly indicate who will win \u2013 a nearly impossible task given the challenges and inherent uncertainties in polling, as well as the closeness of recent presidential elections<\/a>. But that level of accuracy is not essential for other kinds of information in the poll to be useful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What type of information can\u2019t<\/em> we confidently glean from election polls? When should journalists exercise caution?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

People are not good judges of what they might do in the future, especially in reaction to some hypothetical event. Beware of questions such as, \u201cWould X make you more or less likely to support [candidate]?\u201d Those results should not be taken as a predictor of future behavior<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also counsel caution about the value of polls taken immediately after a big news event. Truly consequential events take a little time to affect public opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are presidential election polls still a reliable tool for understanding public sentiment? Have the problems in past election polls been fixed?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s the biggest question pollsters are asking themselves! Polling did pretty well in 2018 and 2022, but it has struggled when Donald Trump is on the ballot, most likely because his supporters are somewhat less willing to participate in polls or because pollsters incorrectly assume they won\u2019t vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how accurate a poll is depends on what the poll is trying to measure. Polling may never be able to nail an election forecast in a highly competitive contest, in part because polls have trouble predicting people\u2019s future behavior and in part because many elections are decided by margins smaller than the typical margin of sampling error. Polls are most useful for determining things like whether the public has favorable or unfavorable opinions of candidates, where people stand on the issues, or which issues matter to which voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polling methodology is changing partly in an effort to do a better job of reaching people who are reluctant to take surveys or vote. Greater use of address-based sampling and multimode data collection are among the ways pollsters are trying to improve the representativeness of their samples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are some of the most common pitfalls when journalists report on surveys?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

While using survey findings in reporting and writing can provide valuable perspective, framing findings incorrectly can muddle the facts and distort public understanding. Fortunately, most common mistakes are easily avoided if you know to watch for them. Here are a few of the big ones:<\/p>\n\n\n\n