For Most Trump Voters, ‘Very Warm’ Feelings for Him Endured
In the wake of Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory, an overwhelming majority of those who said they had voted for him had “warm” feelings for him.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
Voter Files
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Voter Files
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Welcome to Decoded!
An introduction to the methodological musings, puzzles and tangles that you would see if you could flip those picture-perfect research products over.
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Commercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. Politics
A new analysis demystifies voter files, the widely-used and comprehensive digital databases used to better understand the U.S. electorate.
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Q&A: The growing use of ‘voter files’ in studying the U.S. electorate
Read a Q&A with Pew Research Center’s Ruth Igielnik and Scott Keeter about a recent study about voter files.
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Use of election forecasts in campaign coverage can confuse voters and may lower turnout
Probability forecasts have gained prominence in recent years. But these forecasts may confuse potential voters and may even lower the likelihood that they vote.
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Q&A: Political polls and the 2016 election
Courtney Kennedy of Pew Research Center, who chaired survey researchers organization AAPOR’s task force on political polling in the 2016 U.S. elections, discuss the group’s findings and recommendations.
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Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support.
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Just how does the general election exit poll work, anyway?
The firm that runs the presidential exit poll expects to interview about 100,000 voters across the country by the time the polls close on election night.
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Many Americans say they voted, but did they?
One-in-six (16%) of those who say they “definitely voted” in the 2014 midterm election have no record of voting in commercially available national voter files.
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Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved?
High-profile polling failures in recent elections have drawn attention to the challenges in using surveys to predict outcomes. Our study examines various methods of determining who is a likely voter.
