Pew Research Center

FOR RELEASE JUNE 14, 2023

Support for the Black Lives Matter Movement Has Dropped Considerably From Its Peak in 2020

A majority of Americans say the increased focus on issues of race in the past three years hasn’t led to improvements for Black Americans

BY Juliana Menasce Horowitz, Kiley Hurst and Dana Braga

FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES:

Communications Department
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www.pewresearch.org

RECOMMENDED CITATION

Pew Research Center, June 2023, "Support for the Black Lives Matter Movement Has Dropped Considerably From Its Peak in 2020"

About Pew Research Center

Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, computational social science research and other data-driven research. It studies politics and policy; news habits and media; the internet and technology; religion; race and ethnicity; international affairs; social, demographic and economic trends; science; research methodology and data science; and immigration and migration. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder.

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Table of contents

  • About Pew Research Center
  • Support for the Black Lives Matter Movement Has Dropped Considerably From Its Peak in 2020
  • 1. Views on the Black Lives Matter movement
  • 2. The impact of videos of police violence against Black people
  • 3. Views of the treatment of Black people in America
  • Acknowledgments
  • Methodology

Support for the Black Lives Matter Movement Has Dropped Considerably From Its Peak in 2020

A majority of Americans say the increased focus on issues of race in the past three years hasn’t led to improvements for Black Americans

How we did this

Pew Research Center conducted this study to better understand Americans’ views of the Black Lives Matter movement, videos of police violence against Black people and the treatment of Black people in the United States 10 years after the #BlackLivesMatter hashtag first appeared on Twitter.

This analysis is based on a survey of 5,073 U.S. adults conducted April 10-16, 2023. Everyone who took part is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. Address-based sampling ensures that nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology. Read more about the questions used for this report and the report’s methodology.

Terminology

References to White, Black and Asian adults include those who are not Hispanic and identify as only one race. Hispanics are of any race.

All references to party affiliation include those who lean toward that party. Republicans include those who identify as Republicans and independents who say they lean toward the Republican Party. Democrats include those who identify as Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.

Ten years after the #BlackLivesMatter hashtag first appeared on Twitter, about half of U.S. adults (51%) say they support the Black Lives Matter movement, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. Three years ago, following the murder of George Floyd, two-thirds expressed support for the movement.

A line chart showing that support for the Black Lives Matter movement is down from a year ago.

In assessing the impact of the Black Lives Matter movement, 32% say it’s been highly effective at bringing attention to racism against Black people. Smaller shares say the same about increasing police accountability (14%), improving the lives of Black people (8%) and improving race relations (7%). Overall, 31% of Americans say they understand the goals of the Black Lives Matter movement extremely or very well.

Views of the Black Lives Matter movement vary by:

  • Race and ethnicity: 81% of Black adults say they support the movement, compared with 63% of Asian adults, 61% of Hispanic adults and 42% of White adults. White adults are more likely than those in other racial and ethnic groups to describe the movement as divisive and dangerous (about four-in-ten White adults do so, compared with 30% or fewer among the other groups), and they are the least likely to describe it as empowering.
  • Age: 64% of adults ages 18 to 29 support the movement, compared with 52% of those 30 to 49, 46% of those 50 to 64 and 41% of those 65 and older. Some 41% of young adults (ages 18 to 29) say empowering describes the movement extremely or very well and 27% say the same about inclusive, larger than the share of adults ages 30 and older who say those words describe the movement well. And while 49% of young adults say the movement has been highly effective at bringing attention to racism, 32% of those ages 30 to 49, 27% of those 50 to 64 and 22% of those 65 and older say this.
  • Partisanship: 84% of Democrats and Democratic leaners support the movement, while 82% of Republicans and Republican leaners oppose it. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say the words empowering (42% vs. 11%) and inclusive (27% vs. 11%) describe the movement extremely or very well. Republicans, in turn, are more likely than Democrats to say the words dangerous (59% vs. 9%) and divisive (54% vs. 19%) describe the movement well.

Jump to:

  • Views of the Black Lives Matter movement
  • The impact of videos of police violence against Black people
  • Views of the treatment of Black people in America

The nationally representative survey of 5,073 U.S. adults was conducted April 10-16, 2023, using the Center’s American Trends Panel.1

Additional key findings from the survey:

  • The vast majority of Americans say they have personally watched videos of police violence against Black people in the news, on social media or in some other way. Roughly nine-in-ten Americans (88%) say they have seen these videos. This includes large majorities across age, racial, ethnic and partisan groups.  
  • Americans have mixed views of the impact of videos of police violence against Black people being widely shared. Some 45% say these videos being widely shared in the news or on social media is a good thing, while 29% say it’s a bad thing and 24% say it’s neither good nor bad. Most (63%) say these videos being widely shared makes it easier to hold police officers accountable. At the same time, 54% say it makes it harder for police officers to do their jobs.
  • Among those who have watched videos of police violence against Black people, 60% say this has had a negative impact on their trust in the police. Smaller but sizable shares say this has had a negative impact on their sense of safety (48%) and their mental health (45%). Most Black adults who have seen these videos say this has had a negative impact on their mental health (63%).
  • A majority of Americans say the increased focus on issues of race and racial inequality in the past three years hasn’t led to changes that have improved the lives of Black people. Four-in-ten say the increased focus on these issues has led to meaningful change. The public was more divided three years ago: 46% believed the focus on these issues sparked by the murder of George Floyd would not lead to meaningful change, while 52% of Americans thought it would.
  • Two-thirds of Americans say Black people are treated less fairly than White people in dealing with the police. Smaller but sizable shares say Black people are treated less fairly when applying for a loan or mortgage (50%), in hiring, pay and promotions (50%), when seeking medical treatment (44%), in stores or restaurants (41%), and when voting in elections (37%). Americans’ views on this have not changed much since we last asked them in 2020.
  • A majority of Americans (57%) say being Black hurts a person’s ability to get ahead in the U.S. these days. Americans are also more likely to say being Hispanic or Asian hurts rather than helps a person’s ability to get ahead. In turn, 60% say being White helps a person’s ability to get ahead.

Like views of the Black Lives Matter movement, attitudes about videos of police violence against Black people being widely shared and the treatment of Black people in the U.S. often vary by race, ethnicity and partisanship.

1. Views on the Black Lives Matter movement

Today, 51% of U.S. adults say they support the Black Lives Matter movement, a decrease from 56% a year ago. The share who say they strongly support the movement dropped from 26% in 2022 to 22% in the new survey.

A bar chart that shows support for the Black Lives Matter movement varies by race, ethnicity, age and partisanship.

The decrease in overall support is mostly due to the declining share of White adults who say they support the movement. The shares of Black and Hispanic adults who express support have stayed about the same since 2022. (The sample size for Asian adults was too small for separate analysis in 2022.) 

Support for the Black Lives Matter movement

As in previous years, support for the Black Lives Matter movement differs along demographic and partisan lines.

About eight-in-ten Black adults (81%) say they support the movement at least somewhat, compared with smaller shares of Hispanic (61%), Asian (63%) and White (42%) adults who say the same.

Adults younger than 30 are more likely than those in all other age groups to support the movement.

More than eight-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners (84%) say they support the movement. In turn, 82% of Republicans and GOP leaners oppose it.

Views by race and ethnicity among Republicans and Democrats

Across racial and ethnic groups, Democrats are more likely than their Republican counterparts to say they support the Black Lives Matter movement.

A dot plot showing that Black Republicans are more likely than other Republicans to support the Black Lives Matter movement.

But there are some differences by race and ethnicity within each political party.

Roughly eight-in-ten or more White, Black, Hispanic and Asian Democrats support the movement, but Black Democrats are the most likely to express strong support. Some 47% of Black Democrats say they strongly support the movement, compared with 40% of White, 35% of Asian and 33% of Hispanic Democrats.

In contrast, Black Republicans are more likely than their White, Hispanic and Asian counterparts to support the movement. Some 45% of Black Republicans say they support it, followed by 28% each among Hispanic and Asian Republicans and 14% among White Republicans.

Words that describe the Black Lives Matter movement

A third of Americans say the word dangerous describes the Black Lives Matter movement extremely or very well, and 34% say the same about the word divisive. Smaller shares describe the movement as empowering (26%) and inclusive (18%).

Views by race and ethnicity

White adults are more likely than Black, Hispanic or Asian adults to say the words dangerous and divisive describe the Black Lives Matter movement extremely or very well. Black adults are the least likely racial or ethnic group to say this. In fact, 50% of Black adults say dangerous doesn’t describe the movement too well or at all well.

A bar chart that shows majorities of Republicans see the Black Lives Matter movement as dangerous and divisive; many Democrats say it is empowering.

Black, Hispanic and Asian adults are all more likely than White adults to say the word empowering describes the movement extremely or very well. And Black and Asian adults are more likely than White adults to say the same about the word inclusive. In turn, 43% of White adults say inclusive doesn’t describe the movement too well or at all well, a larger share than any other racial or ethnic group.

Views by party

A majority of Republicans say the words dangerous (59%) and divisive (54%) describe the Black Lives Matter movement extremely or very well. Smaller shares of Democrats say the same about each of these words (9% and 15%, respectively).

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say the words empowering (42% vs. 11%) and inclusive (27% vs. 11%) describe the movement extremely or very well. Majorities of Democrats say these words describe the Black Lives Matter movement at least somewhat well.

How effective has the Black Lives Matter movement been?

About three-in-ten Americans (31%) say they understand the goals of the Black Lives Matter movement extremely or very well. Four-in-ten say they understand the goals somewhat well, while 27% say they don’t understand the goals too well or at all well.  

A bar chart showing that a Majority of Americans say the Black Lives Matter movement hasn’t been effective at improving race relations in the U.S.

Roughly a third of Americans (32%) say the Black Lives Matter movement has been extremely or very effective at bringing attention to racism against Black people.

Smaller shares say the movement has been highly effective at increasing police accountability (14%), improving the lives of Black people (8%) and improving race relations (7%). In fact, more than half of Americans say the movement hasn’t been too or at all effective in improving the lives of Black people or improving race relations (57% and 61%, respectively).

Views by race and ethnicity

About half of Black adults (48%) and 46% of Asian adults say the movement has been extremely or very effective in bringing attention to racism against Black people in the United States. Smaller shares of Hispanic (33%) and White adults (27%) have this view.

A bar chart that shows Black and Asian adults are the most likely to say the Black Lives Matter movement has been very or extremely effective in bringing attention to racism.

Black, Hispanic and Asian adults are more likely than White adults to say the movement has been highly effective at increasing police accountability, improving the lives of Black people and improving race relations. But only about a quarter or fewer in each racial or ethnic group say the movement has been highly effective in these areas.

White adults are the most likely to say the movement hasn’t been too effective or hasn’t been effective at all when it comes to each of these areas. In fact, most White adults say the movement hasn’t been effective at improving race relations (68%) or improving the lives of Black people (63%). Smaller but sizable shares ranging from 41% to 51% among Black, Hispanic and Asian adults also say the movement hasn’t been effective at improving race relations or the lives of Black people.

Views by party

Half of Democrats say the Black Lives Matter movement has been extremely or very effective at bringing attention to racism against Black people, while 14% of Republicans share this view.

Democrats are also 11 percentage points more likely than Republicans to say the movement has been highly effective at increasing police accountability (20% vs. 9%).

Only about one-in-ten or fewer among both Democrats and Republicans say the movement has been highly effective at improving the lives of Black people or improving race relations in the U.S.

2. The impact of videos of police violence against Black people

A large share of Americans (88%) – including about nine-in-ten each among White, Black, Republican and Democratic adults – say they have personally seen videos of police violence against Black people in the news, on social media or in some other way.

A bar chart that shows most Black adults, Democrats say it’s good that videos of police violence against Black adults are widely shared.

In general, Americans’ views are mixed as to whether these videos being widely shared is a good development. Some 45% say this is a good thing, while 29% say it’s a bad thing and 24% say it’s neither good nor bad.

Views of the impact of these videos differ widely along demographic and partisan lines, with roughly two-thirds of Black adults and Democrats saying the sharing of these videos is a good thing.

Impact on policing

Americans see these videos as having a mixed impact on policing.

Most (63%) say the wide reach of these videos makes it a lot or somewhat easier to hold police officers accountable, while 12% say this makes it harder.

At the same time, a majority (54%) say these videos being widely shared makes it a lot or somewhat harder for police officers to do their jobs; 11% say this makes it easier.

Views by race and ethnicity

Majorities across racial and ethnic groups say these videos being widely shared makes it easier to hold police officers accountable, but Black adults are the most likely to say this makes it a lot easier (36% of Black adults vs. 26% of Hispanic adults, 24% of Asian adults and 22% of White adults).

A bar chart that shows most White and GOP adults say widely shared videos of police violence against Black people make it harder for officers to do their jobs.

White adults are the only group in which a majority say the sharing of these videos make it harder for police officers to do their jobs; 64% of White adults say this, compared with 46% of Asian adults, 43% of Hispanic adults and 23% of Black adults.

Views by party

Partisans are divided on the impact of these videos being widely shared, even after accounting for differences in the racial and ethnic composition of the Republican and Democratic parties.

Democrats and Democratic leaners are more likely than Republicans and GOP leaners to say these videos make it easier to hold police officers accountable (76% vs. 50%). Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say these videos make it harder to do this (17% vs. 8%) or that they don’t make a difference (32% vs. 15%).

Republicans are about twice as likely as Democrats to say these videos make it harder for police officers to do their job (74% vs. 38%). About half of Democrats say this makes it neither easier nor harder, compared with 19% of Republicans.

Impact of watching videos of police violence

Among adults who have watched videos of police violence against Black people, 60% say it has had a very or somewhat negative impact on their trust in the police, while 48% say it has had a negative impact on their sense of safety and 45% say the same about their mental health. These assessments also differ by race, ethnicity and political party.

Views by race and ethnicity

A bar chart showing that Black adults and Democrats are the most likely to say watching videos of police violence against Black people has impacted them negatively.

Black adults who have watched these videos are the most likely to report negative impacts on their trust in police, sense of safety and mental health.

About eight-in-ten Black adults say watching these videos has had a negative impact on their trust in the police, compared with 67% of Hispanic adults, 66% of Asian adults and 55% of White adults.

Three-quarters of Black adults report negative impacts on their sense of safety, compared with 61% of Hispanic adults, 60% of Asian adults and 39% of White adults.

Most Black adults (63%) say watching these videos has had a negative impact on their mental health, compared with half or fewer of Hispanic (50%), Asian (46%) and White (40%) adults.

Views by party

Democrats who have watched these videos are more likely than Republicans who have done so to say the videos have had a negative impact on their trust in police (80% vs. 38%), their sense of safety (61% vs. 33%) and their mental health (60% vs. 29%).  

3. Views of the treatment of Black people in America

In 2020, nationwide protests following the murder of George Floyd led to what some called a period of racial reckoning.

A bar chart showing that a majority of Americans say the focus on race since 2020 hasn’t led to major changes for Black Americans.

Three years later, 40% of Americans say the increased focus on race and racial inequality since 2020 has led to changes that are improving the lives of Black people, compared with 57% who say it hasn’t.

In 2020, 52% of Americans predicted the increased focus on issues of race and racial inequality would lead to changes, a slightly higher share than the 46% who said it would not.

Views by race and ethnicity

White, Black and Hispanic adults offer similar views on whether the focus on issues of race and racial inequality has led to major changes that are improving the lives of Black people. In each of the groups, more say it hasn’t than say it has led to major changes. Views among Asian adults are split (50% give each answer). 

Today, White, Black and Hispanic adults are less likely to say the focus on these issues has led to changes that are improving the lives of Black people than they were in 2020 to predict it would lead to such changes. 

Views by party

About half (51%) of Democrats and Democratic leaners say the increased focus on racial issues in the past three years has led to changes that are improving the lives of Black Americans, compared with 31% of Republicans and those who lean to the GOP.

In 2020, 70% of Democrats said they expected the increased focus on race would lead to changes that would improve the lives of Black people. Views among Republicans remain unchanged from 2020.

Views of the treatment of Black and White Americans in society

Most Americans (67%) say that Black people are treated less fairly than White people when it comes to dealing with the police. Across a range of other settings and situations, the public is more divided over whether Black people are treated less fairly or whether their treatment is about equal to that of White people. These views remain largely unchanged from 2019.

A bar chart that shows most Americans say Black people are treated less fairly than White people in dealing with the police.

Half of Americans say Black people are treated less fairly than White people when applying for a loan or mortgage, or in hiring, pay and promotions. Some 44% say Black and White people are treated about equally when applying for a loan or mortgage, and 38% say this about hiring, pay and promotions.

Smaller but sizable shares say Black people are treated less fairly when seeking medical treatment, in stores or restaurants and when voting in elections.

Views by race and ethnicity

On all items, Black, Hispanic and Asian adults are more likely than White adults to say Black people are treated less fairly than White people. But Black adults are the most likely to say that Black people are treated less fairly in these situations, with about seven-in-ten or more expressing this view on each item.

A dot plot showing that views on whether Black people are treated less fairly than White people vary by race and ethnicity.

The only item where a majority of White adults say Black people are treated less fairly is in dealing with the police (62% say this). This has also been the case in past surveys. On all other items, pluralities of White adults say Black and White people are treated about equally.

Views by party

By margins ranging from 44 percentage points (in stores or restaurants) to 53 points (in hiring, pay and promotions), Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say Black people are treated less fairly than White people in the situations asked about.

A dot plot showing that sharp partisan differences in views of unequal treatment of Black Americans.

Most Democrats say Black people are treated less fairly on each item. Fewer than half of Republicans say Black people are treated less fairly in dealing with the police, and a quarter or fewer say the same about the treatment of Black people in each of the other situations.

Among both Democrats and Republicans, more say Black people face less fair treatment in dealing with the police than say this about any other situation in the survey.

A dot plot that shows Black and White Republicans have widely different views of whether Black people are treated less fairly than White people.

Black and White Republicans have very different views about whether Black people are treated less fairly than White people. In fact, in almost all the situations asked about, majorities of Black Republicans say Black people are treated less fairly, compared with about four-in-ten or fewer White Republicans who say this on each item.

Majorities of White and Black Democrats say Black people are treated less fairly in dealing with the police, and both racial groups are equally likely to say this. On all other items, Black Democrats are more likely than their White counterparts to say Black people are treated less fairly in each of these situations.

Views of the impact of race and ethnicity on a person’s ability to get ahead

A bar chart showing that more Americans say being Black, Hispanic or Asian hurts than say it helps people’s ability to get ahead in the U.S.

When asked if being White, Black, Hispanic or Asian helps or hurts people’s ability to get ahead in our country these days, more Americans say being Black, Hispanic or Asian hurts than say it helps. In fact, 57% say being Black hurts (either a lot or a little), followed by 52% who say the same about being Hispanic and 38% who say this about being Asian. Just 15% say being White hurts a person’s ability to get ahead.

Six-in-ten Americans say being White helps a person’s ability to get ahead, with 42% saying it helps a lot. Some 27% say being Asian helps, followed by about one-in-five who say this about being Black (21%) or Hispanic (20%).

Those who say being Asian hurts a person’s ability to get ahead (38%) is higher than the shares who said this in 2020 (32%) and 2019 (21%).

Views by race and ethnicity

A bar chart showing that views of the impact of race and ethnicity on a person’s ability to get ahead vary by race and ethnicity.

About half or more of White, Black, Hispanic and Asian adults say being Black or Hispanic hurts – and being White helps – a person’s ability to get ahead. But there are significant differences across groups in these views.

Black adults are more likely than the other groups to say being Black hurts. In fact, 57% of Black adults say it hurts a lot, compared with 38% of Asian adults and about a quarter of White and Hispanic adults (23% and 27%, respectively). 

About one-in-five White adults say being White hurts a person’s ability to get ahead, larger than the shares of Black, Hispanic and Asian adults who say the same. And while a majority of White adults say being White helps, they are the least likely to say this.

Majorities of Black (71%) and Asian (63%) adults say being White helps a lot in getting ahead, compared with 53% of Hispanic adults and 33% of White adults.

Some 57% of Asian adults say being Asian hurts, compared with about four-in-ten or fewer among other groups. Views on whether being Hispanic helps or hurts are less pronounced by race or ethnicity.

Views by party

Republicans are divided as to whether being Black in the U.S. hurts or helps a person’s ability to get ahead: 33% say it helps, 34% say it hurts and 31% say it neither helps nor hurts.

A dot plot showing that Republicans differ by race in views of whether being White or Black helps, hurts people’s ability to get ahead.

Meanwhile, Democrats are much more likely to say that being Black hurts – 79% say this, with 48% saying it hurts a lot. Democrats are also more likely than Republicans to say being Hispanic or Asian hurts a person’s ability to get ahead.

When it comes to Republicans’ views of the impact of being White, 38% say it helps, 27% say it hurts and 34% say it neither helps nor hurts. Democrats’ views are more uniform: 82% say being White helps a person’s ability to get ahead, with 66% saying this helps a lot.

Among Republicans, those who are Black (68%) or Asian (66%) are the most likely to say being White helps a person’s ability to get ahead, followed by 51% of Hispanic Republicans and 35% of White Republicans.

A majority of Black Republicans (63%) say being Black hurts a person’s ability to get ahead, higher than the shares of White, Hispanic and Asian Republicans who say the same.

There are also differences by race and ethnicity among Democrats, but they are less pronounced than the differences among Republicans.

Acknowledgments

Research Associates Kiana Cox and Khadijah Edwards played a lead role in developing the survey questionnaire. This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals. Find related reports online at pewresearch.org/topic/race-ethnicity/.

Kim Parker, Director of Social Trends Research
Juliana Horowitz, Associate Director, Research
Kiana Cox, Research Associate         
Khadijah Edwards, Research Associate
Kiley Hurst, Research Assistant           
Dana Braga, Research Assistant         
Shannon Greenwood, Digital Producer
Beshay Sakla, Associate Digital Producer
Peter Bell, Design Director
John Carlo Mandapat, Information Graphics Designer   
David Kent, Senior Copy Editor                                                  
Anna Jackson, Editorial Assistant                                                   
Tanya Arditi, Communications Manager             
Julia O’Hanlon, Communications Associate
Mimi Cottingham, Communications Associate                      

In addition, the project benefited greatly from the guidance of the Pew Research Center methodology team: Courtney Kennedy, Andrew Mercer, Ashley Amaya, Dorene Asare-Marfo, Dana Popky, Anna Brown and Arnold Lau. This project also benefited from feedback by the following Pew Research Center staff: Mark Hugo Lopez, Monica Anderson and Jocelyn Kiley.

Methodology

The American Trends Panel survey methodology

Overview

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.

Data in this report is drawn from ATP Wave 126, conducted from April 10 to April 16, 2023, and includes an oversample of Hispanic men, non-Hispanic Black men, non-Hispanic Asian adults, and adults who identify as lesbian, gay or bisexual in order to provide more precise estimates of the opinions and experiences of these smaller demographic subgroups. These oversampled groups are weighted back to reflect their correct proportions in the population. A total of 5,073 panelists responded out of 5,802 who were sampled, for a response rate of 87%. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 3%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is 1%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 5,073 respondents is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.

A table showing the American Trends Panel recruitment surveys.

Panel recruitment

The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 9,942 (50%) agreed to participate.

In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a stratified, random sample of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. Sampled households receive mailings asking a randomly selected adult to complete a survey online. A question at the end of the survey asks if the respondent is willing to join the ATP. In 2020 and 2021 another stage was added to the recruitment. Households that did not respond to the online survey were sent a paper version of the questionnaire, $5 and a postage-paid return envelope. A subset of the adults who returned the paper version of the survey were invited to join the ATP. This subset of adults received a follow-up mailing with a $10 pre-incentive and invitation to join the ATP.

Across the five address-based recruitments, a total of 23,176 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 20,341 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. In each household, one adult was selected and asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel. Of the 30,283 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 12,420 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted.

The U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.2 The American Trends Panel never uses breakout routers or chains that direct respondents to additional surveys.

Sample design

The overall target population for this survey was non-institutionalized persons ages 18 and older living in the U.S., including Alaska and Hawaii. It featured a stratified random sample from the ATP in which Hispanic men, non-Hispanic Black men, non-Hispanic Asian adults, and adults who identify as lesbian, gay or bisexual were selected with certainty. The remaining panelists were sampled at rates designed to ensure that the share of respondents in each stratum is proportional to its share of the U.S. adult population to the greatest extent possible. Respondent weights are adjusted to account for differential probabilities of selection as described in the Weighting section below.

Questionnaire development and testing

The questionnaire was developed by Pew Research Center in consultation with Ipsos. The web program was rigorously tested on both PC and mobile devices by the Ipsos project management team and Pew Research Center researchers. The Ipsos project management team also populated test data that was analyzed in SPSS to ensure the logic and randomizations were working as intended before launching the survey.

Incentives

All respondents were offered a post-paid incentive for their participation. Respondents could choose to receive the post-paid incentive in the form of a check or a gift code to Amazon.com or could choose to decline the incentive. Incentive amounts ranged from $5 to $20 depending on whether the respondent belongs to a part of the population that is harder or easier to reach. Differential incentive amounts were designed to increase panel survey participation among groups that traditionally have low survey response propensities.

Data collection protocol

The data collection field period for this survey was April 10 to April 16, 2023. Postcard notifications were mailed to all ATP panelists with a known residential address on April 10. 

Invitations were sent out in two separate launches: soft launch and full launch. Sixty panelists were included in the soft launch, which began with an initial invitation sent on April 10. The ATP panelists chosen for the initial soft launch were known responders who had completed previous ATP surveys within one day of receiving their invitation. All remaining English- and Spanish-speaking sampled panelists were included in the full launch and sent an invitation on April 11.

All panelists with an email address received an email invitation and up to two email reminders if they did not respond to the survey. All ATP panelists who consented to SMS messages received an SMS invitation and up to two SMS reminders.

A table showing the invitation and reminder dates for ATP Wave 126.

Data quality checks

To ensure high-quality data, the Center’s researchers performed data quality checks to identify any respondents showing clear patterns of satisficing. This includes checking for very high rates of leaving questions blank, as well as always selecting the first or last answer presented. As a result of this checking, one ATP respondents was removed from the survey dataset prior to weighting and analysis.

Weighting

A table that shows the American Trends Panel weighting dimensions.

The ATP data is weighted in a multistep process that accounts for multiple stages of sampling and nonresponse that occur at different points in the survey process. First, each panelist begins with a base weight that reflects their probability of selection for their initial recruitment survey. These weights are then rescaled and adjusted to account for changes in the design of ATP recruitment surveys from year to year. Finally, the weights are calibrated to align with the population benchmarks in the accompanying table to correct for nonresponse to recruitment surveys and panel attrition. If only a subsample of panelists was invited to participate in the wave, this weight is adjusted to account for any differential probabilities of selection.

Among the panelists who completed the survey, this weight is then calibrated again to align with the population benchmarks identified in the accompanying table and trimmed at the 1st and 99th percentiles to reduce the loss in precision stemming from variance in the weights. Sampling errors and tests of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey.

A table that shows the sample sizes and margins of error for ATP Wave 126.

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Dispositions and response rates

A table that shows the final dispositions for ATP Wave 126.
A table showing the cumulative response rate as of ATP Wave 126.

A note about the Asian adult sample

This survey includes a total sample size of 368 Asian adults. The sample primarily includes English-speaking Asian adults and, therefore, may not be representative of the overall Asian adult population. Despite this limitation, it is important to report the views of Asian adults on the topics in this study. As always, Asian adults’ responses are incorporated into the general population figures throughout this report.