Q&A: A conversation about U.S. election polling problems in 2020
Here, we discuss the findings of a comprehensive report about the polling errors of 2020 and their implications for polling.
Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World
Read our research on:
Methods
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Behind Biden’s 2020 Victory
A new analysis of 2020 validated voters examines change and continuity in the electorate, both of which contributed to Joe Biden’s victory. It looks at how new voters and voters who turned out in either 2016, 2018 or both voted in the 2020 presidential election, and offers a detailed portrait of the demographic composition of the 2020 electorate.
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Most Americans believe in intelligent life beyond Earth; few see UFOs as a major national security threat
About two-thirds of Americans (65%) say their best guess is that intelligent life exists on other planets.
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Measuring the Risks of Panel Conditioning in Survey Research
A new evaluation of the Center’s national American Trends Panel finds little evidence that panel estimates are affected by errors associated with panel conditioning, a phenomenon that occurs when survey participation changes respondents’ true or reported behavior over time.
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Death penalty draws more Americans’ support online than in telephone surveys
The difference in support for the death penalty by survey mode has important consequences for understanding trends on the issue.
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Confronting 2016 and 2020 Polling Limitations
Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.
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Q&A: After misses in 2016 and 2020, does polling need to be fixed again? What our survey experts say
Polling organizations have taken close looks at how election surveys are designed, administered and analyzed. We are no exception.
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What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Given the errors in 2016 and 2020 election polling, how much should we trust polls that attempt to measure opinions on issues?
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Single-party control in Washington is common at the beginning of a new presidency, but tends not to last long
Unified government at the beginning of a president’s first term has been the norm, especially for Democratic presidents.
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Racial, ethnic diversity increases yet again with the 117th Congress
124 lawmakers today identify as Black, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander or Native American, a 97% increase over the 107th Congress of 2001-02.
