I. Overview

This fact sheet presents estimates for the number of Hispanics who will be U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old and thus eligible to vote as of November 2006. Also presented are estimates of the number of eligible voters who will have registered to vote based on several scenarios that weigh changes in the population and potential levels of political participation. The fact sheet includes tables on Hispanics and their eligibility to vote by state, congressional district and nationwide.

The Size of the Latino Electorate

The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that more than 17 million Hispanics will be U.S. citizens over the age of 18 and thus eligible to vote in the November 2006 election, an increase of 7% over the 2004 election. The Hispanic share of the U.S. electorate will increase to 8.6% from 8.2% in 2004.

Estimates of the size of the Hispanic electorate for states and congressional districts are in the appendix tables. See the methodology section for a description of the data sources and methods used to develop the estimates.

The terms Latino and Hispanic are used interchangeably. The terms white, black and Asian refer to non-Hispanics.

For a full discussion of the demography of the Hispanic electorate see “Hispanics and the 2004 Election: Population, Electorate and Voters” Pew Hispanic Center, June, 2005.

The Size of the Latino Electorate

The native born constitute the largest share of the Hispanic electorate, an estimated 12.9 million eligible voters, or 75% of the total. Naturalized citizens (the foreign-born who have acquired U.S. citizenship) are estimated to number 4.3 million, or 25% of the total.

The fastest growth in the Hispanic electorate is from native-born Latinos, specifically those in the second generation (U.S. born with at least one foreign-born parent). The number of second-generation Latinos of voting age grew by about 524,000 between 2004 and 2006, accounting for 46% of the increase in the Hispanic electorate.

The number of naturalized citizens of voting age increased by 317,000, or 28% of the growth. Latinos in the third plus generations (U.S. born of U.S-born parents) account for the largest nativity category in the Hispanic electorate (48%) but the smallest share of the growth.

Eligible voters make up a significantly smaller share of the Hispanic population than in other racial/ethnic groups because so many Latinos are either adults who are not citizens or citizens who are not yet of voting age. For example, 39% of Hispanics are eligible voters compared to 77% of whites and 65% of blacks.

Registered Voters

Registration rates vary by age. Young adults of all racial and ethnic groups are less likely to register and less likely to vote than persons who are middle aged and older. Registration rates also vary between native-born and naturalized citizens. Native-born citizens generally have higher rates of participation in elections. However, among Latinos the difference between native and foreign born is not significant.

Using CPS data and population projections based on Census data, the Center has developed the following scenarios for estimating the number of Hispanics that would be registered in November 2006:

First Scenario: Projections based on 2002 voter registration

Assumes that Latinos of different age groups and nativity categories will register at rates seen in 2002, the last mid-term election. At that election, 8.2 million Latinos registered, or 53% of eligible Latino voters, according to the 2002 Current Population Survey. The registration rates for blacks and whites were 63% and 69% respectively.

• If Latinos registered at the same rates as in 2002, then 9.2 million Latino citizens 18 and older would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 53% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered at the same rates as non-Hispanic blacks did in 2002, then 10.3 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 60% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered at the same rates as non-Hispanic whites did in 2002, then 10.9 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 63% of eligible Latinos.

Second Scenario: Projections based on 2004 voter registration

Assumes that Latinos of different age groups and nativity categories will register at rates seen in 2004. At that election, 9.3 million Latinos, or 58% of eligible voters, were registered, according to the 2004 Current Population Survey. The registration rates for blacks and whites were 69% and 75% respectively.

• If Latinos registered at the same rate as 2004, then 10.0 million Latino citizens 18 and older would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 58% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered at the same rate as non-Hispanic blacks did in 2004, then 11.5 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 67% of eligible Latinos.
• If Latinos registered to vote at the same rate as non-Hispanic whites did in 2004, then 12.3 million Latinos would register to vote in 2006. That would represent 71% of eligible Latinos.

  

In November of even numbered years, the Current Population Survey (CPS) asks citizens aged 18 whether they registered to vote and whether they voted. The data provide definitive information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the electorate. (The CPS is conducted by the Census Bureau and is best known as the source of monthly data on the unemployment rate.) The material in this fact sheet for 2000, 2002 and 2004 comes from tabulations of the November CPS supplements.

For 2006, the Pew Hispanic Center developed estimates of the population for age, race and ethnic group and nativity/citizenship. The first step was to estimate the November 2006 civilian, non-institutional population (the CPS universe) by age, sex, and race/ethnicity by projecting the Census Bureau’s August 2006 official population estimate forward to November 2006. Populations for ages 18-20, 21-24, and five-year age groups to ages 75 and over were estimated by adding the annual change in the age groups for August 2005–2006 to the estimated population for November 2005. Separate estimates were developed for the Hispanic population and four major race groups in the non Hispanic population—white, black, Asian/Pacific Islander (API), and American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN). Persons with multiple race identities were assigned to major race groups using a hierarchical assignment method; the hierarchy is Black, Asian, White, AIAN. See Suro, Fry, and Passel 2005 for more details.

The foreign-born population in 2006 and the second and third plus generations among natives were estimated from three percentages for each age-race/ethnic group: (a) the percentage foreign-born; (b) the percentage naturalized of the foreign-born population; and (c) the percentage 2nd generation among the native population. Initial estimates of these percentages were obtained by averaging several sources: (a) August 2006 CPS; (b) June–August 2006 CPSs; (c) March–May 2006 CPSs; (d) November 2004 CPS; (e) November 2005 CPS; and (f) the 2005 base population for forthcoming Pew Hispanic Center projections. The percentages by age for each race/ethnic and citizenship-nativity group were smoothed. Then, the estimated November 2006 nativity and citizen populations were calibrated with demographic projections and administrative data on naturalizations for fiscal years 2004 and 2005.from the Office of Immigration Statistics in the Department of Homeland Security.

To estimate potential registered voters in 2006, the percentage registered in the November 2004 CPS for 7 age groups (18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75 and older) and 3 nativity/generation groups (naturalized citizens, 2nd generation, 3rd+ generations) were computed for each of the five race/ethnic groups. Those percentages were then applied to the estimated November 2006 population in various scenarios.

For a detailed discussion of findings from the November 2004 CPS supplement see Hispanics and the 2004 Election: Population, Electorate and Voters, Pew Hispanic Center, June 2005.