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Amid Doubts About Biden’s Mental Sharpness, Trump Leads Presidential Race

4. Interest in the 2024 election

Voter engagement with the 2024 election is about as high today it was at similar points during the 2020 and 2016 campaigns.

Chart shows Nearly identical shares of Biden and Trump supporters say it really matters who wins in November

And on various measures of interest in the campaign and voting, there are no significant differences between Biden and Trump supporters.

Most voters (71%) say it really matters who wins the election. This is slightly lower than the share who said this about the 2020 election that August (76%) and somewhat higher than the share who said this about the 2016 election that July (67%).

Biden and Trump supporters are equally likely to see high stakes in the election. Nearly identical shares of Biden (79%) and Trump supporters (78%) say it really matters who wins the election.

Voters who support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are far less likely than Biden or Trump supporters to say the outcome really matters (39% say this). (Read more about election engagement among Biden, Trump and Kennedy supporters.

The shares of Biden and Trump supporters saying it really matters who wins are quite similar to views in August 2020. They are higher than the shares of Clinton and Trump supporters saying this in August 2016.

Demographic differences in views of the stakes in the 2024 election

Chart shows As in 2020, older voters and White voters are more likely to say it really matters who wins

As was the case during the past two presidential contests, there are sizable demographic differences in the shares of voters who say it really matters who wins.

Age

Voters ages 18 to 29 are less likely than older voters to say it really matters who wins the election. Only about half (51%) say it really matters, which is roughly similar to the shares of young voters saying this four and eight years ago.

The share saying it really matters increases with age. More than eight-in-ten voters ages 65 and older (86%) say this, the highest among age groups.

Race and ethnicity

White voters continue to be more likely than voters in other racial and ethnic groups to say it really matters who wins.

Roughly three-quarters of White voters (76%) say this compared with about six-in-ten Black (63%), Hispanic (58%) and Asian voters (58%).

How motivated are voters at this point in the campaign?

A majority of registered voters (56%) say they are extremely motivated to vote in the presidential election. Another 16% say they are very motivated to vote while 12% say they are somewhat motivated.

Chart shows Biden, Trump supporters are equally likely to say they are extremely motivated to vote

About one-in-seven (15%) say they are not too or not at all motivated to vote in the election.

Identical shares of Biden supporters and Trump supporters (63% each) say they are extremely motivated to vote this fall.

By comparison, just 21% of voters who support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. say they are extremely motivated.

Among demographic groups

As with other measures of election engagement, there are demographic differences in motivation to vote. And the patterns in the current election are consistent with past elections.

Older voters overall are more likely than young voters to say they are extremely motivated to vote in the presidential election.

About a third of registered voters ages 18 to 29 (34%) say they are extremely motivated to vote. That rises to 49% among voters 30 to 49 and to 65% among those 50 and older.

Similar shares of Biden (42%) and Trump supporters (38%) ages 18 to 29 say they are extremely motivated to vote. The shares expressing this view increase with age among both candidates’ supporters. Roughly three-quarters of Biden (75%) and Trump supporters (72%) ages 65 and older say they are extremely motivated.

A 63% majority of White voters say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with 41% of Black voters, 36% of Hispanic voters and 39% of Asian voters.

These racial and ethnic differences are seen among each candidates’ supporters. For instance, while 71% of White Biden supporters say they are extremely motivated to vote, smaller shares of Black (50%) and Hispanic (49%) voters who back Biden say the same.

How voter attention compares to past elections

Chart shows Attention to the 2024 campaign is fairly similar to previous elections

Voter attention to and interest in the 2024 campaign is not markedly different from the past two elections.

Attention to news about the 2024 election

About a third of voters (33%) say they are following election news very closely. Another 41% are following election news fairly closely.

The share following election news very closely has increased 5 percentage points since April. Interest in election news tends to increase over the course of a campaign.

The share of voters following election news very closely is currently higher than at about the same point in 2020 (27% in June 2020) but lower than in 2016 (41% in July 2016).

Thought about the 2024 candidates

Nearly six-in-ten voters (58%) say they have given a lot of thought to the 2024 presidential candidates, up from 49% in April. In June 2020, about half of voters (52%) said they had given a lot of thought to the candidates.

There are no significant differences in the shares of Biden (64%) and Trump (62%) supporters who say they have thought a lot about the candidates.

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