Pew Research Center

FOR RELEASE JUNE 6, 2024

Cultural Issues and the 2024 Election

<em>Immigration, gender identity, racial diversity and views of a changing society</em>

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Pew Research Center, June 2024, "Cultural Issues and the 2024 Election"

About Pew Research Center

Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, computational social science research and other data-driven research. It studies politics and policy; news habits and media; the internet and technology; religion; race and ethnicity; international affairs; social, demographic and economic trends; science; research methodology and data science; and immigration and migration. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder.

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Table of contents

  • About Pew Research Center
  • Cultural Issues and the 2024 Election
  • 1. Racial attitudes and the 2024 election
  • 2. Immigration attitudes and the 2024 election
  • 3. America, its history and the 2024 election
  • 4. Gender, family, reproductive issues and the 2024 election
  • 5. Gender identity, sexual orientation and the 2024 election
  • 6. Religious values and the 2024 election
  • 7. Crime, policing and the 2024 election
  • 8. Gun attitudes and the 2024 election
  • Acknowledgments
  • Methodology

Cultural Issues and the 2024 Election

<em>Immigration, gender identity, racial diversity and views of a changing society</em>

Note: A new report is available as of Aug. 26, 2024: “The Political Values of Harris and Trump Supporters.” The report and its accompanying detailed tables update the material in this report, examining how these issues are viewed by supporters of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Vote preference used in the new report was measured in a survey conducted Aug. 5-11, 2024, after Joe Biden had exited the presidential race. The values data in the new report was measured in the same survey used in this report, conducted April 8-14.

The patterns of opinion in the new report are largely the same as those discussed in this report (which used Biden/Trump preferences as of April).

How we did this

Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand voters’ political values related to cultural issues in the context of the 2024 election. For this analysis, we surveyed 8,709 adults, including 7,166 registered voters, from April 8 to 14, 2024. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology. 

Here are the questions used for the report and its methodology. 

The 2024 presidential campaign is taking place amid intense debates over such topics as immigration, growing racial and ethnic diversity in the United States, the changing American family, crime and reproductive issues.

Chart shows Wide differences between Biden and Trump supporters on key cultural issues in the presidential campaign

These topics sometimes are grouped together as “culture war” or “woke” issues.

On most – but not all – of these topics, voters who support President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have starkly different opinions. Yet in many cases, Biden and Trump supporters are themselves sharply divided.

Across more than 30 measures, some of the widest differences are on issues that have divided Americans for decades: the role of guns in society, as well as race and the legacy of slavery.

Yet, Biden and Trump supporters also have very different opinions across many other topics likely to be focal points in the campaign: gender identity and sexual orientation, crime and policing, reproductive issues, the influence of religion on society and the changes that have transformed life in the U.S. in recent decades.

A new survey by Pew Research Center of 8,709 adults – including 7,166 registered voters – conducted April 8-14, 2024, examines the political values of the Biden and Trump coalitions that underlie policy attitudes in many of these areas.

Jump to read about Biden and Trump supporters’ views on: Race and racial diversity | Immigration and language | American history | Gender and family | Gender identity and sexual orientation | Religion | Crime and policing | Guns

Among the major findings:

Enduring divisions on race and the legacy of slavery. Just 27% of registered voters who support Trump say the legacy of slavery affects the position of Black people in America today a great deal or fair amount; 73% say it has little or no impact.

Opinions among Biden supporters are nearly the opposite: 79% say slavery’s legacy still affects the position of Black people, while 20% say it has not too much or no effect.

Wide gaps on gender identity and same-sex marriage. While Americans have complex opinions on gender identity and transgender rights, a growing share of voters (65%) say that whether a person is a man or woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth. About a third (34%) say someone can be a man or woman, even if that differs from their sex at birth.

  • Nearly all Trump supporters (90%) say gender is determined by sex at birth. By contrast, Biden supporters are more divided. About six-in-ten (59%) say gender can be different from sex at birth; 39% say gender is determined by sex at birth.
  • Nearly a decade after the Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage, Biden and Trump supporters have starkly different views of the impact of that historic ruling. Biden supporters are about five times as likely (57%) as Trump supporters (11%) to say legalization of same-sex marriage is good for society.
Chart shows Sharp divide between Biden and Trump supporters over the need to deport undocumented immigrants in the U.S.

Most Trump voters now favor a “national effort to deport” all those in the U.S. illegally. Opposition to allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally if they meet certain requirements has risen in recent years, driven largely by Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters.

  • Nearly two-thirds of Trump backers (63%) support a national effort to deport all those in the country illegally, compared with just 11% of Biden supporters.
Chart shows How Biden and Trump supporters view legal abortion, access to contraception

Divided views of the criminal justice system. A majority of voters (61%) say the criminal justice system is generally “not tough enough on criminals.” Just 13% say the system is too tough, while 25% say it treats criminals about right.

  • Trump supporters (81%) are about twice as likely as Biden supporters (40%) to say the criminal justice system is not tough enough on criminals.
  • Yet, there are much narrower differences in several priorities for the police and law enforcement: Overwhelming majorities of Biden and Trump supporters say it is extremely or very important for police and law enforcement to keep communities safe and to treat people of all racial and ethnic groups equally.

The changing American family. The structure of American family is very different than it was 40 or 50 years ago. Biden and Trump supporters view these changes very differently:   

  • Roughly three times as many Trump supporters as Biden supporters say society is better if people prioritize marriage and family (59% vs. 19%).
  • And Trump supporters are far more likely to take a negative view of the nation’s falling birth rate: 47% say people having fewer children is a bad thing, compared with 23% of Biden supporters.

Divisions on abortion, more agreement on availability of contraceptives. Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed a right to abortion, support for legal abortion has ticked up in both parties.

  • Today, 88% of Biden supporters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases; 38% of Trump supporters say the same.

By contrast, voters – including large majorities of both candidates’ supporters – overwhelmingly say the wide availability of birth control pills, condoms and other forms of contraception is good for society.

Broad support among voters for discussing America’s historical successes – and its flaws. The survey finds that while Biden and Trump supporters have profoundly different attitudes on many cultural issues, they mostly support the discussion of America’s historical successes, as well as its flaws.

  • Nearly identical shares of Biden (74%) and Trump supporters (71%) say it is extremely or very important to have public discussions about the country’s historical successes and strengths.
  • 78% of Biden supporters and 60% of Trump supporters say it is at least very important to have public discussions about the country’s failures and flaws.
Chart shows Most Biden and Trump supporters express positive views of more people openly discussing mental health

Voters are very positive about more open discussions of mental health. More than eight-in-ten voters (87%) say that more people openly discussing mental health and well-being is good for society. This includes large majorities of both Biden (94% good thing) and Trump supporters (79%).

Related: Who do Americans feel comfortable talking to about their mental health?

There is broad skepticism about the increased use of artificial intelligence (AI) in daily life. More than half of voters (55%) say this is bad for society, while 21% see this as a good thing (24% say it is neither good nor bad). There are only modest differences in these views between Trump supporters (59% say this is bad for society) and Biden supporters (51%).

Related: Growing public concern about the role of artificial intelligence in everyday life

Voters’ comfort level with some common – and less common – experiences

To some extent, voters’ political values are reflected in whether or not they’re comfortable with fairly common experiences.

Chart shows Voters’ comfort level with some common experiences, including prayer and pronouns

A large share of voters (80%), including sizable majorities of Biden and Trump supporters, say they are comfortable with someone they don’t know saying they will keep them in their prayers.

Most women in opposite-sex marriages continue to take their husbands’ last names when they marry. Still, three-quarters of voters say they are comfortable with women not taking their husbands names.

Trump supporters are less comfortable than Biden supporters with women not taking their husbands’ last names. And among men who support the former president, 44% are uncomfortable with this practice, compared with 29% of women who support Trump.

There is a wider gap between Biden and Trump voters in comfort with people speaking a language other than English in public places in their communities. More than eight-in-ten Biden supporters (83%) are comfortable hearing languages other than English, compared with a narrow majority of Trump supporters (54%).

And, reflecting the wide divide between the two sides in opinions on transgender issues, just 20% of Trump supporters say they are comfortable with someone using “they/them” instead of “he” or “she” to describe themselves. More than three times as many Biden supporters (66%) – including 79% of Biden supporters under age 50 – say they are comfortable with the use of these gender-neutral pronouns.

1. Racial attitudes and the 2024 election

Voters who favor Joe Biden and those who favor Donald Trump hold very different views about race and ethnicity in American society. Some of the starkest differences across all the political values in this study are over the degree to which Black Americans continue to be affected by the legacy of slavery and whether White Americans benefit from societal advantages Black Americans do not have.

And gaps between Biden and Trump supporters over perceptions of the impact of the nation’s growing diversity are nearly as wide.

Voters’ views about race and society, the impact of the legacy of slavery

Chart shows Supporters of Biden and Trump differ over whether race, the legacy of slavery impact Black people today
  • Among registered voters, eight-in-ten Biden supporters say that White people benefit at least a fair amount from advantages in society that Black people do not have. By contrast, only 22% of Trump supporters say this.
  • There is a similar divide in opinion about the continued impact the legacy of slavery has on Black Americans: Most Biden supporters (79%) say it continues to have at least a fair amount of impact. Among Trump supporters, a far smaller share (27%) say slavery’s legacy continues to affect Black people in the U.S.

The divides are not new: In 2020, the gap between Trump and Biden supporters on questions related to race was also wide.

Shifting views about whether White people have societal advantages

Overall, about half of registered voters (51%) say that White people benefit at least a fair amount from advantages in society that Black people do not have, though the share who say this is down 4 percentage points in the last two years and 8 points since 2020. The share of voters who say White people benefit a great deal from advantages in society has decreased from 32% in 2022 to 24% today.

  • Most of this change has taken place among Democrats. From the summer of 2020 through the fall of 2022, roughly six-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said that White people benefited a great deal from advantages in society that Black people did not have. But fewer (44%) say this today – a decrease of 15 points in two years.
  • Just 5% of Republican voters say that White people benefit a great deal from advantages in society – essentially unchanged in recent years.
Chart shows Wide partisan gap over whether White people benefit a great deal from advantages in society Black people don’t have, but fewer Democrats say this than in 2020

Black voters are more likely than voters in other racial and ethnic groups to say that White people benefit from advantages in society that Black people do not have.

Race and ethnicity
Chart shows Black voters are 4 times as likely as White voters to say White people benefit a great deal from advantages

Nearly two-thirds of Black voters (66%) say that White people benefit a great deal from advantages in society that Black people do not have. By comparison, about three-in-ten Asian (31%) and Hispanic voters (30%) say this, along with just 16% of White voters.

Majorities of Asian (79%) and Hispanic voters (66%) say that White people benefit at least a fair amount, while 42% of White voters and 84% of Black voters say this.

Age

There are relatively modest overall differences among age groups on this question. Voters under 50 are somewhat more likely than those 50 and older to say White people benefit from advantages Black people do not have.

Education

Roughly a third of voters with postgraduate degrees (35%) say that White people benefit a great deal from advantages Black people do not have. By comparison, those with less formal education are less likely to say this.

There are similar patterns in voters’ views of whether the historical legacy of slavery continues to affect the position of Black people in American society.

Chart shows Differences by age, education, race and ethnicity in views of the ongoing effects of slavery’s legacy

Two-thirds of Black voters say that the legacy of slavery has a great deal of impact today. Far smaller shares in other racial and ethnic groups say this.

Nearly four-in-ten voters ages 18 to 29 (37%) say this, the largest share in any age group.

Roughly a third of voters with postgraduate degrees (34%) see a great deal of impact from the legacy of slavery, a larger share than among those with less formal education.

Within demographic groups, Biden and Trump supporters differ widely on views about race

For the most part, demographic differences within each candidate’s coalition are relatively modest, with one exception: Black Biden supporters are much more likely than other Biden supporters to say that the legacy of slavery has large effects on Black people today and that White people benefit from advantages Black people do not have.

Chart shows Black Biden supporters differ from other Biden supporters in views of race’s role in society today

Seven-in-ten Black Biden supporters say that the legacy of slavery has a great deal of impact on Black people today. This is about twice the share as among White, Hispanic and Asian Biden backers.

The pattern is nearly identical for views about whether White Americans benefit from societal advantages Black people do not have.

However, across all demographic groups, Biden supporters are more likely than Trump supporters to hold these views.

Most voters, but not all, view the nation’s diversity as a strength

Nearly two-thirds of voters (65%) say the fact that the U.S. population is made up of people of many different races, ethnicities and religions strengthens American society. About one-in-ten (11%) say this weakens American society, while 23% say it doesn’t make much difference.

Race and ethnicity

Chart shows Roughly 8 in 10 Biden supporters say diversity is a strength, compared with half of Trump supporters

Majorities across racial and ethnic groups say that this strengthens society, including 67% of Hispanic voters, 66% of Black voters and 64% of White voters. Asian voters are particularly likely to say this (76%).

Age

While at least six-in-ten of those across all age groups say racial, ethnic and religious diversity is an American strength, younger voters are somewhat more likely than older voters to say this.

Education

Nearly eight-in-ten voters with postgraduate degrees (78%) say that having a diverse population is a strength, as do 73% of those with undergraduate degrees.

Although narrower majorities of those with some college experience (63%) or a high school education or less (55%) view diversity as a strength, just 13% in these groups say it is a weakness (the remainder say it doesn’t make much difference).

Biden voters vs. Trump voters

Voters who favor Biden overwhelmingly say that diversity strengthens society: 82% say this and just 4% say it weakens the U.S.

Chart shows Most voters say a decline in the share of White people is neither good nor bad for society

In contrast, the views of Trump supporters are more split: While about half (49%) say diversity strengthens American society, about a third of Trump supporters (32%) say that having a diverse society doesn’t make much difference, and about two-in-ten (19%) say it weakens society.

Similarly, majorities in both coalitions say that White people declining as a share of the U.S. population is neither good nor bad for society: 73% of Biden supporters and 57% of Trump supporters say this. Yet Trump supporters are much more likely to describe this trend as bad for society. Nearly four-in-ten Trump supporters (39%) say the decline in the share of White people is bad, compared with 10% of Biden supporters.

2. Immigration attitudes and the 2024 election

Voters who are backing Joe Biden this fall and those who back Donald Trump express sharply contrasting views about immigration.

Chart shows Wide gaps between Biden and Trump supporters on immigration, language and national identity

In part, this reflects long-standing gaps between Republicans and Democrats over how much of a problem illegal immigration is for the country, and recent differences in views about the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Trump and Biden supporters also diverge over the overarching question of whether the U.S. being open to people from all over the world is a core part of the nation’s identity, and the degree to which they are comfortable or uncomfortable when languages other than English are spoken in public.

How should the country handle undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S.?

About six-in-ten registered voters (59%) say that undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. should be allowed to stay in the country legally: 36% say they should be able to apply for citizenship, while 22% say they should be able to apply only for permanent residency.

Roughly four-in-ten voters (41%) say, instead, that undocumented immigrants should not be allowed to stay in the country legally. Most of this group (37% of the overall public) says that there should be a national effort to deport those who are undocumented.

Chart shows About 6 in 10 Trump supporters favor a national effort to deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S.

Voters who support Trump and Biden are largely on different sides of this issue:

  • Roughly six-in-ten Trump supporters (63%) say there should be a national effort to deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. Just 11% of Biden supporters hold this view.
  • By contrast, Biden supporters overwhelmingly (85%) say undocumented immigrants should be eligible to stay legally if certain requirements are met – including 56% who say this should include a path to applying for citizenship. About a third of Trump supporters (32%) say undocumented immigrants should be eligible for legal status, including just 15% saying there should be a way for them to apply for citizenship.

Changing views on how the country should handle undocumented immigrants

Chart shows Growing share of voters say undocumented immigrants should not be allowed to stay in the country legally

Over the past several years, Americans have become more likely to say that undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. should not be allowed to stay in the country legally.

While a 59% majority of voters say that undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. legally, this is a substantial drop compared with recent years. In June of 2020, 74% of voters said that undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay legally.

Republican vs. Democratic voters
  • Today, about two-thirds of Republican and Republican-leaning voters (66%) say undocumented immigrants should not be allowed to stay in the country legally. This is up from 54% in April 2021 and 42% four years ago.
  • Democratic voters have also become somewhat more likely to say that undocumented immigrants should not be allowed to stay legally. While just 16% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters now say this, that is up from 9% in 2020.

Increasing shares favor a national deportation effort

Since 2021, the share of voters who favor a national effort by law enforcement to deport undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. has increased by 11 percentage points, from 26% to 37%.

Chart shows Growing support for national deportation efforts since 2021, particularly among GOP voters

A majority of Republican voters (63%) now favor a national deportation effort, up from about half (49%) three years ago. About one-in-ten Democratic voters (11%) favor this, up 5 points over the same period.

Demographic differences in immigration views within Biden and Trump coalitions

There are substantial demographic differences in views of immigration among Trump supporters.

Hispanic voters who support Donald Trump are about twice as likely as White Trump supporters to say that there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally if they meet certain requirements.

Chart shows Wide gaps between the views of White and Hispanic Trump supporters on values related to immigration

And nearly half of Hispanic Trump supporters (46%) say that America’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation, compared with 32% of White Trump supporters.

Roughly half of Trump supporters ages 18 to 34 (51%) say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay legally. In other age groups – particularly those 50 and older – smaller shares say this.

About half of Trump supporters under 35 (49%) say America’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to the national identity, compared with far smaller shares of Trump supporters in older age groups.

Across racial and ethnic groups as well as age groups, at least three-quarters of Biden supporters express attitudes supportive of immigration on both questions. However, these views are somewhat less widespread among Black Biden supporters than among Biden supporters in other racial and ethnic groups.

Attitudes toward hearing other languages in public places

Trump supporters

Chart shows How Biden and Trump supporters feel about people speaking a language other than English in their communities
  • 74% of Hispanic Trump supporters say they are comfortable with people in their communities speaking a language other than English. A far smaller share of White Trump supporters say this (48%).
  • 69% of Trump supporters under 50 say they’re comfortable hearing a language other than English in their community. That compares with 43% of Trump supporters 50 and older.

Biden supporters

  • Large majorities of Biden supporters across racial and ethnic groups say they are comfortable hearing languages other than English, though Hispanic Biden supporters are most likely, and Black Biden supporters least likely, to say they are comfortable with this.
  • 92% of Biden supporters under 50 and 76% of those 50 and older express comfort with hearing languages other than English in public places.

3. America, its history and the 2024 election

Most American voters (72%) place a lot of importance on publicly discussing the nation’s historical successes and strengths – with nearly as many (68%) placing a similar level of importance on discussing the country’s flaws.

  • Clear majorities of both Trump and Biden voters say both the positive and negative aspects of the nation’s history are important to focus on, although Trump voters are less likely than Biden voters to assign importance to discussions of historical failures and flaws.
Chart shows Most voters say it’s important to talk
about America’s historical successes –
and its failures

There is also some common ground in how the coalitions view the U.S.: Clear majorities of both Biden and Trump supporters view the U.S. as a great nation.

However, Trump supporters are more likely than Biden supporters to say the nation is singularly great – that it stands above all others, rather than as one of a small number of great nations. And Biden supporters are more likely than Trump supporters (27% vs. 13%) to say there are other countries that are better than the U.S.

Biden and Trump supporters’ views about discussing America’s historical successes, failures

Similar shares of Biden supporters (74%) and Trump supporters (71%) say it is at least very important to have public discussions about America’s historical successes.

Chart shows Relatively modest demographic differences in views of discussing the country’s successes and failures

Biden supporters are 18 percentage points more likely than Trump supporters to say it is extremely or very important to have public discussions about historical failures, though majorities in both coalitions say this (78% of Biden supporters, 60% of Trump supporters).

While there are some demographic differences on these questions, majorities of voters across nearly all major subgroups say it is important to discuss both successes and failures.

Race and ethnicity

Among Biden and Trump supporters, White voters are somewhat more likely than voters of other races and ethnicities who support the same candidate to say that discussing both of these topics is important.

Age

Nearly identical shares of voters under 50 (70%) and those 50 and older (68%) say it is at least very important to discuss historical failures and flaws. Older voters are slightly more likely than younger voters to place importance on discussions of historical successes and strengths.

Education

Voters with college degrees are more likely than voters without college degrees to view discussing both types of historical topics as important.

Biden supporters vs. Trump supporters

The shares of Biden and Trump backers who say it is extremely or very important to discuss historical successes and strengths are very similar across demographic groups. Biden supporters are consistently about 20 points more likely than Trump supporters to say it is at least very important to discuss historical failures and flaws.

How does the U.S. compare with other countries?

Chart shows Majority of voters see the U.S. as among the greatest countries in the world

About a quarter of registered voters (23%) say the U.S. stands above all other countries in the world. A majority (56%) say the U.S. is one of the greatest countries in the world, along with some others, while 20% say there are other countries that are better than the U.S.

Majorities of both candidates’ supporters say the U.S. is one of the greatest countries in the world, though Biden supporters are more likely to say this than Trump supporters (60% of Biden supporters vs. 53% of Trump supporters).

  • Trump supporters (34%) are about three times as likely as Biden supporters (12%) to say the U.S. stands above all other countries.
  • Biden supporters (27%) are about twice as likely as Trump supporters (13%) to say there are other countries that are better than the U.S.

Long-standing age gaps in attitudes about how the U.S. compares with other nations

Chart shows Differences between older and younger voters in perceptions of how the U.S. compares with other nations

As in prior years, younger voters are far more likely than older voters to say that other countries are better than the U.S. Nearly four-in-ten voters ages 18 to 34 (39%) say this, compared with just 9% of voters 65 and older.

And the oldest group of voters are nearly three times as likely as those under 35 to say the U.S. stands above all other countries in the world (32% of voters 65 and older vs. 11% of those under 35).

Supporters of both candidates differ by age on this question.

  • Nearly half of Biden supporters under 35 (48%) say there are other countries that are better than the U.S. Just 11% of Biden supporters 65 and older say this. And while 20% of Biden supporters 65 and older say the U.S. stands above all other countries, just 4% of those under 35 say this.
  • Trump supporters under 35 are also more likely than those 65 and older to say there are other countries that are better than the U.S. And they are less likely to say the U.S. stands above all other countries in the world.

Views of how the U.S. compares with other countries have not shifted in recent years

Chart shows Americans’ views of how the U.S. compares with other nations have changed little in the last 5 years

For the most part, American voters’ views of how the country stacks up against other nations have been relatively unchanged over the last five years.

Today, 20% of voters say that other countries are better than the U.S., down from the 25% who said this last year, but nearly identical to the share of voters who said this in 2021 and 2019.

The share of voters saying the U.S. stands above all other countries in the world – 23% – remains slightly lower than the share saying this in 2021 (27%) but is nearly identical to the share who said this last year.

4. Gender, family, reproductive issues and the 2024 election

Biden and Trump voters differ sharply over the state of women’s progress in the U.S., as well as over whether society should prioritize marriage and children.

Yet majorities of both candidates’ supporters say that the gains women have made in society have not come at the expense of men.

Nearly two years after the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision that guaranteed a right to abortion, the issue continues to divide the two coalitions: Biden supporters overwhelmingly say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while a narrower majority of Trump backers say it should not.

Chart shows How Biden and Trump voters view the state of women’s progress in the U.S.

But the two groups generally share the view that birth control and access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) should be widely available. Majorities of both Biden and Trump supporters view the broad availability of birth control as a good thing and say the same about access to IVF.

Views of women’s progress

Supporters of Joe Biden and Donald Trump have mirror-image views on whether women face obstacles to getting ahead in society that men do not.

  • About three-quarters of Biden supporters (73%) say there are still significant obstacles making it harder for women than men to get ahead. About a quarter (26%) say these obstacles are now largely gone.
  • In contrast, seven-in-ten Trump supporters say the obstacles that once made it harder for women than men to get ahead are now largely gone. About three-in-ten (29%) say women still face significant obstacles.

There were also wide gaps in these opinions during the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

Chart shows Men who support Biden and Trump are more likely than women to say that obstacles standing in the way of women’s progress are now largely gone

Differences between Biden and Trump voters are much more modest when it comes to views of whether women’s gains have come at the expense of men. Sizable majorities of both Biden (90%) and Trump supporters (74%) reject this idea.

Among both Biden supporters and Trump supporters, men are more likely than women to say the obstacles that once made it harder for women than men to get ahead are now largely gone.

Among Trump supporters, 83% of men say this, compared with 55% of women.

Almost four-in-ten men who back Biden (37%) say women’s obstacles to progress are now largely gone. Just 16% of women who back Biden say the same.

While most voters across age groups and genders say that gains women have made have not come at the expense of men, a third of men who support Trump do think women’s gains have cost men. This share increases to 40% among men under age 50 who support Trump. About 20% of women or fewer – regardless of age or which candidate they support – say that women’s gains come at the expense of men.

How much of a priority should marriage and children be?

Chart shows Trump supporters far more likely than Biden supporters to say society should prioritize marriage and having children

Roughly four-in-ten registered voters (39%) say society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority, while a majority (59%) say society is just as well off if people have priorities other than family and children.

  • Trump supporters (59%) are much more likely than Biden supporters (19%) to say that it is better if people prioritize marriage and children.

There are modest differences between men and women in whether focusing on marriage and children makes society better.

  • About six-in-ten men who support Trump (63%) say this, compared with 54% of Trump-supporting women. There is a similar gender gap among Biden supporters (22% of men vs. 16% of women).

Black voters who support Biden (29%) are more likely than White (17%) and Hispanic (16%) Biden supporters to say an emphasis on marriage and family makes society better off. Two-in-ten Asian voters who back Biden say this.

Marriage and children

Chart shows Large gender gap among Trump supporters on comfort with women keeping their names after marriage

Three-quarters of registered voters say they are comfortable with women not taking their husbands’ last names when they get married. Just a quarter are uncomfortable with this.

However, Trump supporters (37%) are much more likely than Biden supporters (13%) to express discomfort with married women not taking their husbands’ last names.

And men who support Trump (44%) are more likely than women who support him (29%) to say they are uncomfortable with the practice of women not taking their husbands’ last names.

Related: About 8 in 10 women in opposite-sex marriages say they took their husband’s last name

The nation’s fertility rate, which has been declining for years, is now at its lowest point in more than a century, according to a recent study by the Centers for Disease Control. About four-in-ten voters (43%) say it is neither good nor bad for society that people are having fewer children; 35% view this trend negatively, while 22% say it is good for society.

Chart shows How voters see the declining birth rate

Biden supporters have mixed views of the fact that people are having fewer children. Half say this is neither good nor bad, 27% view this as good for society, and 23% say it is bad.

Trump supporters – especially men who back Trump – view this trend more negatively.

  • Nearly half of Trump supporters (47%), including a 56% majority of men who support Trump, say it is bad for society that people are having fewer children. Roughly four-in-ten women who support Trump (37%) see this trend as a bad thing.

Abortion, IVF access and birth control

Abortion deeply divides supporters of Biden and Trump. About nine-in-ten Biden supporters (88%) say abortion should be legal in most (46%) or all (42%) cases. Just 11% of Biden supporters say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.

Chart shows Deep divisions on abortion between Biden and Trump voters

Conversely, about six-in-ten Trump supporters (61%) say abortion should be illegal in all (11%) or most (50%) cases. A significant minority of Trump supporters say abortion should be legal in most or all cases (38%).

Related: Broad Public Support for Legal Abortion Persists 2 Years After Dobbs

Age, gender differences among Trump supporters – but not Biden supporters – on abortion

Chart shows About half of Trump supporters under 35 say abortion should be legal in all or most cases

About half of Trump supporters ages 18 to 34 (51%) say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a substantially higher share than among older Trump supporters (35% of those 35 and older).

Among Biden supporters, nearly nine-in-ten across all age groups say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Both women and men who back Trump are more likely to say abortion should be illegal than to say it should be legal. However, more women who support Trump (41%) say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 34% of men who support Trump.

There is no difference in these views between women and men who support Biden.

By contrast, 73% of all voters – including majorities of Biden (83%) and Trump supporters (64%) – say access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) is a good thing.

Related: Americans overwhelmingly say access to IVF is a good thing

Chart shows Most voters say widespread access to birth control is good for society

Voters overwhelmingly express positive views of birth control, condoms and other forms of contraception being widely available in the United States. Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) say this is very or somewhat good for society, 13% view it as neither good nor bad, and 7% say it is bad.

  • 93% of Biden supporters and 66% of Trump supporters say it’s good for society that birth control is widely available.
  • Men who support Trump (61%) are less likely than women who back the former president (73%) to say that birth control being widely available is good for society. There is no meaningful gender gap on this question among Biden supporters.

5. Gender identity, sexual orientation and the 2024 election

Voters who support Joe Biden and Donald Trump have wide differences across a broad range of issues related to gender identity and sexual orientation.

Trump supporters overwhelmingly say a person’s gender is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth. A majority of Biden supporters, by a less one-sided margin, say someone can be a man or woman even if that is different from their sex at birth.

Biden’s supporters also are far more comfortable than Trump supporters with people using the pronouns “they” or “them” to describe themselves.

And two decades after the first same-sex marriages were legally performed in the U.S., Biden supporters are roughly five times as likely as Trump supporters to say legalizing same-sex marriage has been good for society.

Views of gender identity

Chart shows Most voters say gender is determined by sex assigned at birth

Nearly two-thirds of registered voters (65%) say whether a person is a man or woman is determined by the sex assigned to them at birth. About a third (34%) say whether someone is a man or woman can be different from the sex at birth.

Nine-in-ten Trump supporters and about four-in-ten Biden supporters (39%) say sex at birth determines if someone is a man or a woman.

About six-in-ten Biden supporters (59%) say a person’s gender can be different from their sex at birth. Only about one-in-ten Trump supporters (9%) say this.

There are wider demographic differences in opinions about gender identity among Biden supporters than among Trump supporters.

Among Biden supporters

Chart shows Wide differences between Biden and Trump supporters – and among Biden supporters – on whether a person’s gender is determined by sex at birth

Nearly two-thirds of Black voters who support Biden (64%) say gender is determined by a person’s sex assigned at birth. That compares with 46% of Biden’s Hispanic supporters and smaller shares of his White (32%) and Asian supporters (27%).

Biden supporters without college degrees (47%) are more likely than those with college degrees or more education (30%) to say sex at birth determines someone’s gender.

Biden supporters under age 35 (29%) are less likely than older Biden supporters to say gender is determined by sex assigned at birth.

Among Trump supporters

Across demographic groups, wide majorities of Trump supporters say gender is determined by sex at birth.

However, there are some differences among these voters. Hispanic Trump supporters (79%) are less likely than White Trump supporters (92%) to say sex birth determines gender identity, and Trump supporters ages 18 to 34 (83%) are less likely to say this than older Trump supporters.

Changing views about gender identity

Chart shows Growing share of voters say gender is determined by sex at birth

The share of voters who say that sex at birth determines whether someone is a man or a woman has increased since 2017, and this increase has occurred within both parties.

In 2017, 53% of voters said sex assigned at birth determines gender; 65% express this view today.

The share of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who say that sex at birth determines gender identity has grown from 79% in 2017 to 91% now.

In the same period, the share of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who say this has increased, from 30% to 39%.

Voters’ attitudes toward use of gender-neutral pronouns

Chart shows Wide gap between Biden and Trump supporters in how comfortable they are with use of gender-neutral pronouns

Over half of voters (56%) say they are not comfortable with someone using the pronouns “they” or “them” to describe themselves, rather than “he” or “she.” Roughly four-in-ten (43%) are comfortable with the use of these pronouns.

Biden supporters are more than three times as likely as Trump supporters to say they are comfortable with the use of “they/them” pronouns (66% to 20%).

  • Black voters who support Biden (55%) are less comfortable with the use of they/them pronouns than Biden’s White (69%), Hispanic (68%) and Asian (72%) backers.
  • Hispanic Trump supporters (33%) are somewhat more likely than the former president’s White supporters (16%) to say they are comfortable.

Voters under 50 are more comfortable than those 50 and older with people using gender-neutral pronouns. There is an age gap on this question among both candidates’ supporters, but it is particularly stark among Biden voters: 79% of Biden’s supporters ages 18 to 49 say they are comfortable, compared with 56% of his supporters who are 50 and older.

Societal impact of more social acceptance of lesbian, gay, bisexual people

Chart shows Voters are divided on whether more people identifying as gay, lesbian or bisexual and same-sex marriages being legal are good for society

Voters are divided over the societal effects of more people being comfortable with identifying as gay, lesbian or bisexual and same-sex marriages being legal in the U.S.

Roughly a third say each trend has been very or somewhat good for society, while about as many say the changes have been bad for society. The remainder say they have been neither good nor bad.

As with opinions about gender identity, there are sizable differences between Biden and Trump supporters.

About half of Biden supporters (51%) say more people being comfortable identifying as gay, lesbian or bisexual is good for society. And a majority of Biden supporters (57%) say legalization of same-sex marriage is good for society.

About half of Trump supporters say both changes are bad for society: 53% say this about increased comfort with people identifying as lesbian, gay or bisexual, and 51% say this about legalization of same-sex marriage.

There are age differences among both candidates’ supporters.

  • Majorities of Biden supporters ages 18 to 49 view both trends positively: 63% say more people being comfortable identifying as lesbian, gay or bisexual is good for society, while 67% say the same of the legalization of same-sex marriage. About half or fewer of Biden supporters 50 and older share these views. (This group is more likely to instead say that these trends are neither good nor bad.)
  • Older Trump supporters are more likely than his younger supporters to have a negative view of the impact of legalizing same-sex marriage (57% of those 50 and older say it is bad for society, compared with 41% of those younger than 50). There are no meaningful age differences in how Trump supporters assess the impact of more people being comfortable with identifying as lesbian, gay or bisexual.
  • Black voters who support Biden are far less likely than Biden’s supporters in other racial and ethnic groups to say increased comfort with identifying as lesbian, gay or bisexual and legalized same-sex marriage are good for society. About a quarter of Black Biden supporters say these things are good, compared with about half or more among his White, Hispanic and Asian backers.

6. Religious values and the 2024 election

Voters who support Joe Biden and Donald Trump have starkly different views of the role religion should play in the U.S. government and politics.

Chart shows Biden and Trump supporters differ on government support for religion and the Bible’s influence on the nation’s laws

Across several measures, Trump supporters are much more likely than Biden supporters to favor an expansive government role in support of religion.

At the same time, larger shares of Trump supporters than Biden supporters also say religion – and particularly the Bible – should have influence on government policy.

Note: Some data in this section was first published in the report “8 in 10 Americans Say Religion Is Losing Influence in Public Life.”

Religion and government policy

Chart shows Biden and Trump supporters’ views of government policies supporting religious values and beliefs

A large majority of voters (71%) believe that religion should be kept separate from government policies; just 28% say government policies should support religious values and beliefs. These views have changed very little in recent years.

A majority of Trump supporters (56%) say religion should be kept separate from government policy, while 43% say government policies should support religious values. By more than six-to-one (86% vs. 13%), Biden supporters say religion should be kept separate from government.

These views differ by race and ethnicity and – especially among Trump supporters – by religious affiliation.

Race and ethnicity

Few White (7%), Asian (12%) or Hispanic (15%) Biden supporters say government should support religious values, but about a third of Black voters who back Biden (35%) say this.

About four-in-ten White (44%) and Hispanic (40%) Trump supporters say the government should have policies to support religion.

Religious affiliation

About six-in-ten White evangelical Protestants who support Trump (61%) say government policies should support religious values and beliefs, compared with fewer than half of White nonevangelical Protestants (39%) and Catholics (39%) who back the former president. Few religiously unaffiliated Trump supporters (16%) want the government to support religion.

Among supporters of Biden, Black Protestants are the most likely religious group to say government policies should support religious values (39% of Black Protestant Biden supporters say this), while White nonevangelical Protestants (7%) and religiously unaffiliated Biden supporters are the least likely to back government support for religious values.

How much influence should the Bible have on the nation’s laws, if any?

Chart shows Deep divisions between Biden and Trump supporters in views of whether the Bible should influence U.S. laws

Biden and Trump supporters also have very different views of the influence the Bible should have on U.S. laws.

Most Trump supporters (69%) would like the Bible to have at least some influence on the laws of the U.S., including 36% who say it should have “a great deal” of influence.

Additionally, 45% of Trump supporters say that when the Bible and the will of the people conflict with each other, the Bible should have more influence on U.S. laws.

About seven-in-ten Biden supporters (69%) say the Bible should have little or no influence on the laws of the U.S., including 53% who say it should have no influence. Just 15% of Biden supporters say the Bible should have more influence on the country’s laws when there are conflicts between it and the will of the people.

Views on the federal government’s role in promoting Christian values

There is a similar pattern in Biden and Trump supporters’ views of whether the government should promote Christian moral values or declare Christianity the official religion of the U.S.

Chart shows Supporters of Biden and Trump have wide differences over government promotion of Christian moral values

About six-in-ten Biden supporters (58%) say the federal government should not declare Christianity the official religion of the U.S. and should not promote Christian moral values (17% of Trump backers have the same view).

A similar share of Trump supporters (59%) also say that the federal government should not declare Christianity the official religion, but it should promote Christian moral values (34% of Biden supporters say the same).

Another 22% of Trump backers would like the federal government to declare Christianity the official religion of the U.S.; just 6% of Biden backers say this.

Most voters say it is not necessary to believe in God to be moral

Chart shows Biden supporters less likely than Trump supporters to say believing in God is necessary for morality

By roughly two-to-one (67% to 33%), voters say it is not necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values.

Trump voters are more evenly divided in this view than are Biden voters.

Among Trump supporters

While 45% of Trump supporters say a belief in God is necessary to be moral, 54% say it is not necessary.

Among Trump supporters, white evangelical Protestants (59%) say belief in God is needed to be moral – the most of any religious group.

Among Biden supporters

Just 20% of Biden voters say a belief in God is needed to be moral and have good values. However, Biden supporters are divided by race and religious affiliation.

Much larger shares of Biden’s Black (53%) and Hispanic (28%) supporters than his White supporters (8%) say belief in God is needed for morality.

A majority of Black Protestants (57%) who support Biden say belief in God is needed for morality, compared with smaller shares of his supporters in other religious groups.

7. Crime, policing and the 2024 election

Republicans and Democrats have long diverged on the topics of how much of a problem crime is in the country and how to approach policing and the criminal justice system.

Those differences are reflected in the current survey in how supporters of the two major party candidates for president view the treatment of criminals by the American justice system and in law enforcement priorities.

Even as there have long been substantial partisan differences in evaluations of how police around the country perform aspects of their job, there is some common ground between Biden and Trump supporters when it comes to what people think law enforcement priorities are.

Is the justice system too tough on criminals, or not tough enough?

A majority of registered voters (61%) say that the criminal justice system in the United States is not tough enough on criminals, while 25% say the system treats criminals about right and 13% say it is too tough.

Chart shows Trump voters overwhelmingly say the justice system should be tougher on criminals, Biden voters are split

Trump supporters overwhelmingly say the system is not tough enough (81%).

Biden supporters are more divided: 40% say the criminal justice system is not tough enough on criminals, while about as many – 36% – say it’s about right in its treatment of criminals. And 21% say this system is too tough on criminals.

Perceptions of the fairness of the criminal justice system differ by age, race and ethnicity

Across demographic groups, Biden supporters are less likely than Trump supporters to say that the justice system is not tough enough on criminals. But within both coalitions of support, there are demographic differences in these views.

Race and ethnicity
Chart shows Most Trump supporters say the criminal justice system is not tough enough

While majorities of both White and Hispanic Trump supporters say the justice system is not tough enough on criminals, White Trump supporters are especially likely to say this: 85% hold this view, compared with 63% of Hispanic Trump supporters.

About half of Hispanic and Asian Biden backers say the criminal justice system is not tough enough. Somewhat smaller shares – around four-in-ten (38%) – of White and Black Biden supporters say this.

Age

Overall, older voters are more likely than younger voters to say the criminal justice system isn’t tough enough on criminals. And that pattern is seen in both coalitions:

  • 87% of Trump supporters ages 50 and older say this, compared with 72% of those under 50.
  • 48% of Biden supporters 50 and older say this, compared with 30% of those under 50.
Education

Among Biden voters, there are differences on this question across educational groups: Biden supporters with more formal education are less likely than others to see the criminal justice system as not tough enough.

  • About a third of Biden voters with bachelor’s degrees or more education (32%) say this. Among those without bachelor’s degrees, nearly half (47%) hold this view.

Among Trump voters, roughly eight-in-ten of those with (84%) and without (80%) college degrees say the system is not tough enough on criminals.

Policing and law enforcement

Over nine-in-ten voters view “keeping communities safe” and “treating people of all racial and ethnic groups equally” as extremely or very important to the job for policing and law enforcement in the country.

Chart shows Community safety, equal treatment of racial and ethnic groups, public respect for police, and suspects’ rights all seen as very important for law enforcement

Smaller, though still wide, majorities say maintaining public respect for police officers (78%) and protecting the rights of people suspected of crimes (65%) are at least very important.

Far smaller shares view any of these as of less importance. Still, a quarter of voters (25%) say that protecting the right of suspected criminals is somewhat important. And about one-in-ten voters (9%) say that protecting the rights of suspects is not too or not at all important.

Biden and Trump supporters aligned on some areas of importance for law enforcement, diverge somewhat on others

Both Biden and Trump supporters overwhelmingly say keeping communities safe is extremely or very important for law enforcement, as is treating all racial and ethnic groups equally.

Chart shows Biden and Trump supporters share some common ground on law enforcement goals but emphasize different aspects

Majorities in both groups also place importance on maintaining public respect for police officers, and on protecting the rights of people accused of crimes.

But there are also substantial differences in the extent to which supporters of each of the candidates prioritize these law enforcement concerns.

  • Trump supporters place greater importance than Biden supporters on maintaining public respect for the police: 88% of Trump supporters say this is at least very important, including 63% who say it is extremely important. By comparison, 69% of Biden supporters see this as at least very important (38% say it’s extremely important).
  • In contrast, Biden supporters are more likely than Trump supporters to place importance on protecting the rights of people suspected of crimes: 72% of Biden backers say this is extremely or very important. A narrower majority of Trump supporters (58%) say this.

Even on the two domains where about nine-in-ten or more in both groups place a great deal of importance – public safety and treating racial and ethnic groups equally – there are gaps between the two coalitions:

  • 80% of Trump supporters say keeping communities safe is extremely important, as do 68% of Biden supporters.
  • 77% of Biden backers say treating people of all racial and ethnic groups equally is extremely important, as do 60% of Trump backers.

8. Gun attitudes and the 2024 election

Perhaps no topic divides voters more deeply than the role that firearms have in American life.

Chart shows Biden and Trump voters have starkly different opinions about gun ownership, gun rights in the U.S.

By overwhelming margins, Joe Biden’s supporters prioritize gun control over gun rights and say gun ownership does more to reduce than increase safety; roughly eight-in-ten Biden supporters (83%) say the increase in guns in the U.S. is at least somewhat bad for society.

By comparable or even somewhat larger margins, Donald Trump’s supporters express opposing views on all three measures.

Underscoring the divisiveness of this topic, Americans even disagree about whether gun violence is a major national problem. In a separate survey, 68% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say gun violence is a very big problem, compared with 27% of Republicans and Republican leaners.

How Trump, Biden supporters view gun rights and ownership

For the most part, attitudes about guns are fairly similar among Trump’s supporters, as well as Biden’s. This underscores the deep differences between the two coalitions. 

Chart shows Trump supporters overwhelmingly favor gun rights and say guns increase safety; few Biden supporters agree

Still, there are some internal differences within each coalition.

Among both the Trump and Biden coalitions, voters living in rural areas are more supportive of gun rights than urban voters. There is a similar pattern in views on gun safety.

Among Trump supporters

White Trump supporters are more likely than Hispanic Trump supporters to say it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own a gun (89% vs. 70%) than to control gun ownership and that gun ownership does more to increase than decrease safety (90% vs. 71%).

Women voters who back Trump are somewhat less likely than his male supporters to support gun rights and say gun ownership increases safety. Still, more than eight-in-ten women and men who support Trump hold these views.

Views on the increasing number of guns in the U.S.

The share of Americans who say they own a gun – or that someone else in their household owns a firearm – has remained steady in recent years. But other evidence, including data on gun sales, shows a rise in the overall number of guns in the country.

Chart shows Biden supporters are far more likely than Trump supporters to view the increase in guns in the U.S. negatively

Voters overall are divided over whether the increase is good or bad for society: 52% say it is very or somewhat bad, while 22% say it is good and a quarter say it is neither good nor bad.

Relatively few Trump supporters (21%) view the growing number of guns negatively; more say it is a good thing for society (40%) or neither bad nor good (38%).

Biden supporters (83%) are nearly four times as likely as Trump supporters to say the increase is a bad thing.

Among Trump supporters, nearly twice as many women (28%) as men (15%) say the increase in guns in the U.S. is bad for society. Trump supporters who live in urban (28%) or suburban (24%) areas are more likely than rural Trump supporters (14%) to view this trend negatively.

Large majorities of Biden supporters across demographic groups have a negative view of the increase in the number of guns. Still, a larger share of Biden supporters with a four-year college degree (91%) say this is bad thing than do those who do not have degree (77%).

Acknowledgments

This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:

Research team

Carroll Doherty, Director, Political Research
Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Political Research
Baxter Oliphant, Senior Researcher
Hannah Hartig, Senior Researcher
Gabe Borelli, Research Associate
Andrew Daniller, Research Associate
Joseph Copeland, Research Analyst
Ted Van Green, Research Analyst
Andy Cerda, Research Assistant
Shanay Gracia, Research Assistant

Communications and editorial

Nida Asheer, Senior Communications Manager
Talia Price, Communications Associate
David Kent, Senior Copy Editor

Graphic design and web publishing

Alissa Scheller, Senior Information Graphics Designer
Reem Nadeem, Digital Production

Methodology

Andrew Mercer, Senior Research Methodologist
Dorene Asare-Marfo, Panel Manager
Dana Popky, Associate Panel Manager
Arnold Lau, Research Methodologist

Methodology

The American Trends Panel survey methodology

Overview

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.

Data in this report is drawn from ATP Wave 146, conducted from April 8 to April 14, 2024. It includes oversamples of non-Hispanic Asian adults, non-Hispanic Black adults, Hispanic adults, and adults ages 18 to 29 in order to provide more precise estimates of the opinions and experiences of these smaller demographic subgroups. It also included an oversample of validated 2016 and 2020 “vote switchers,” who either voted for Donald Trump in 2020 but not in 2016, or who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but not for Hillary Clinton in 2016. These oversampled groups are weighted back to reflect their correct proportions in the population.

A total of 8,709 panelists responded out of 9,527 who were sampled, for a response rate of 91%. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 3%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is less than 1%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 8,709 respondents is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

Panel recruitment

The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 9,942 (50%) agreed to participate.

Table shows American Trends Panel recruitment surveys

In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based sampling (ABS) recruitment. A study cover letter and a pre-incentive are mailed to a stratified, random sample of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. This Postal Service file has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.1 Within each sampled household, the adult with the next birthday is asked to participate. Other details of the ABS recruitment protocol have changed over time but are available upon request.2

We have recruited a national sample of U.S. adults to the ATP approximately once per year since 2014. In some years, the recruitment has included additional efforts (known as an “oversample”) to boost sample size with underrepresented groups. For example, Hispanic adults, Black adults and Asian adults were oversampled in 2019, 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Across the six address-based recruitments, a total of 23,862 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 20,917 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. Of the 30,859 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 11,902 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted.

The American Trends Panel never uses breakout routers or chains that direct respondents to additional surveys.

Sample design

The overall target population for this survey was noninstitutionalized persons ages 18 and older living in the U.S., including Alaska and Hawaii. It featured a stratified random sample from the ATP in which the following groups were selected with certainty:

  • Non-Hispanic Asian adults
  • Non-Hispanic Black adults
  • Hispanic adults
  • Adults ages 18-29
  • Validated 2016 and 2020 voters3 who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 but voted for a different candidate in 2016
  • Validated 2016 and 2020 voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The remaining panelists were sampled at rates designed to ensure that the share of respondents in each stratum is proportional to its share of the U.S. adult population to the greatest extent possible. Respondent weights are adjusted to account for differential probabilities of selection as described in the Weighting section below.

Questionnaire development and testing

The questionnaire was developed by Pew Research Center in consultation with Ipsos. The web program was rigorously tested on both PC and mobile devices by the Ipsos project management team and Pew Research Center researchers. The Ipsos project management team also populated test data that was analyzed in SPSS to ensure the logic and randomizations were working as intended before launching the survey.

Incentives

All respondents were offered a post-paid incentive for their participation. Respondents could choose to receive the post-paid incentive in the form of a check or a gift code to Amazon.com or could choose to decline the incentive. Incentive amounts ranged from $5 to $20 depending on whether the respondent belongs to a part of the population that is harder or easier to reach. Differential incentive amounts were designed to increase panel survey participation among groups that traditionally have low survey response propensities.

Data collection protocol

The data collection field period for this survey was April 8 to April 14, 2024. Postcard notifications were mailed to a subset of ATP panelists4 with a known residential address on April 8. 

Invitations were sent out in two separate launches: soft launch and full launch. Sixty panelists were included in the soft launch, which began with an initial invitation sent on April 8. The ATP panelists chosen for the initial soft launch were known responders who had completed previous ATP surveys within one day of receiving their invitation. All remaining English- and Spanish-speaking sampled panelists were included in the full launch and were sent an invitation on April 9.

All panelists with an email address received an email invitation and up to two email reminders if they did not respond to the survey. All ATP panelists who consented to SMS messages received an SMS invitation and up to two SMS reminders.

Table shows Invitation and reminder dates, ATP Wave 146

Data quality checks

To ensure high-quality data, the Center’s researchers performed data quality checks to identify any respondents showing clear patterns of satisficing. This includes checking for whether respondents left questions blank at very high rates or always selected the first or last answer presented. As a result of this checking, three ATP respondents were removed from the survey dataset prior to weighting and analysis.

Weighting

The ATP data is weighted in a multistep process that accounts for multiple stages of sampling and nonresponse that occur at different points in the survey process.

Table shows American Trends Panel weighting dimensions

First, each panelist begins with a base weight that reflects their probability of selection for their initial recruitment survey. These weights are then rescaled and adjusted to account for changes in the design of ATP recruitment surveys from year to year. Finally, the weights are calibrated to align with the population benchmarks in the accompanying table to correct for nonresponse to recruitment surveys and panel attrition. If only a subsample of panelists was invited to participate in the wave, this weight is adjusted to account for any differential probabilities of selection.

Among the panelists who completed the survey, this weight is then calibrated again to align with the population benchmarks identified in the accompanying table and trimmed at the 2nd and 98th percentiles to reduce the loss in precision stemming from variance in the weights. This trimming is performed separately among non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, Hispanic and all other respondents. Sampling errors and tests of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey.

Table shows Sample sizes and margins of error, ATP Wave 146

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Dispositions and response rates

Table shows Final dispositions, ATP Wave 146
Table shows Cumulative response rate as of ATP Wave 146

© Pew Research Center, 2024