As partisan battles over the debt ceiling and other key issues loom and the GOP takes back control of the House of Representatives following last fall’s midterm elections, most Republicans say they want their party’s leaders to take a hard line in their dealings with President Joe Biden and the Democrats.

More than six-in-ten Republicans and independents who lean toward the Republican Party (64%) say that Republican congressional leaders should “stand up” to Biden on matters that are important to GOP voters, even if this makes it harder to address critical problems facing the country. About half as many Republicans – 34% – would prefer to see the party’s congressional leaders work with Biden, even if doing so requires them to make concessions that disappoint some GOP voters, a new Pew Research Center survey has found.

Democrats are more likely to say they would support efforts by their leaders to find common ground with the other party. A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (58%) say that Biden should try as best he can to work with GOP leaders to accomplish things, even at the cost of disappointing some of Biden’s voters. Roughly four-in-ten Democrats (41%) prefer that Biden stand up to Republicans, even if that makes it harder to address the nation’s important problems.

The partisan gap on this question has persisted throughout Biden’s presidency so far. Democrats also expressed more openness to compromise than Republicans at the beginning of both 2022 and 2021. Yet those in both parties are somewhat more open to compromise than they were last January: A year ago, 72% of Republicans and 48% of Democrats favored their leaders standing up to the other party over working together to accomplish things.

Even before the Department of Justice appointed a special counsel to review Biden’s handling of classified documents earlier this month, House Republicans had promised to use their new majority to pursue several investigations into Biden’s presidency and his family. Today, 56% of Republicans and Republican leaners say they are more concerned that their party’s representatives in Congress will not focus enough on investigating the administration, while 42% say they are more concerned that Republicans in Congress will be too focused on these investigations at the expense of other priorities.

Among all U.S. adults, 65% are more concerned that Republicans in Congress will focus too much on investigating the Biden administration, while 32% are more concerned that congressional Republicans will focus too little on this. Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to express greater concern about too much of a focus on investigations (89%) versus too little (9%).

After Democrats won a majority in the House midway through President Donald Trump’s term in office, Democrats were more closely divided in their concerns. In May 2019, 51% of Democrats and Democratic leaners expressed more concern that House Democrats would focus too much on investigating the Trump administration, while 47% were more concerned about Democrats not focusing on this enough.

The new survey – conducted Jan. 18-24, 2023, among 5,152 members of Pew Research Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel – finds that most Americans continue to rate Biden’s job performance negatively: 60% of the public disapproves of the way he is handling his job as president, while 38% approve. Views of Biden’s job performance are largely unchanged across Center surveys dating back to last July. (For a more detailed look at Biden’s approval among various demographic groups, see the detailed tables accompanying this report)

Views of the nation’s economy also remain overwhelmingly negative. Nearly eight-in-ten adults (78%) rate current conditions as poor (32%) or only fair (47%). The share rating conditions positively has ticked up slightly since October – to 21% from 17% – but remains lower than it was one year ago (28%).

Even as inflation appears to have leveled off since last summer, large shares of the public continue to report concerns about prices. Three-quarters of adults say they are very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, nearly identical to the share who said this in the October survey.

Six-in-ten now say they are very concerned about the price of gasoline and energy, down from 69% three months ago. And an identical share expresses the same level of concern about the cost of housing, unchanged since the fall.

Americans are far less likely to say they are worried about issues related to jobs than about prices. Three-in-ten are very concerned about employers being unable to find workers to hire (down slightly from 34%) and about people who want to work being unable to find jobs (compared with 29% in October).

Other important findings from the survey

Larger shares of Democrats view their party as united. Eight-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners say that the Democratic Party is mostly (71%) or completely (9%) united, compared with 70% of Republicans and Republican leaners who say the GOP is united (67% mostly, 4% completely). The share of Democrats who describe their party as united is up 12 percentage points from January 2022, while the share of Republicans who describe the GOP as united is down 7 points over the same period.

Favorable views of Kevin McCarthy are up among Republicans. Kevin McCarthy is better known – and better liked – among Republicans since becoming speaker of the House. Nearly half of Republicans – 47% – now view him favorably, up from 34% last summer; 26% express an unfavorable view of McCarthy.

Democrats are more optimistic than Republicans about the coming year. Roughly seven-in-ten Democrats (71%) say they expect 2023 to be better than 2022, compared with 43% of Republicans; a majority of Republicans (57%) say that 2023 will be worse. These shares are nearly identical to the shares of Republicans (46%) and Democrats (71%) who, one year ago, expected 2022 to be better than 2021. Overall, 57% of adults say 2023 will be better than 2022, while 43% say they expect it to be worse.

At about the halfway point in his term, President Joe Biden’s job ratings continue to be more negative than positive. A majority of Americans (60%) disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job as president, including 41% who say they very strongly disapprove. Roughly four-in-ten (38%) say they approve of Biden’s job performance, with 18% saying they very strongly approve.

Biden’s approval rating is identical to his rating in October. During Biden’s first few months in office, majorities of Americans approved of his job performance. But his popularity declined during the summer of 2021, and his job rating has remained in the low 4os or high 30s since then.

Black (60%) and Asian (54%) adults are more likely than Hispanic (43%) and White (31%) adults to approve of how Biden is handling his job as president.

While there continue to be only modest age differences in Biden’s job rating, adults under age 50 are slightly more likely to approve of Biden’s job as president than those 50 and older (40% vs. 35%).

Adults with a postgraduate degree stand out for their approval of Biden’s job as president: A narrow majority (53%) say they approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president. Majorities of those with a bachelor’s degree, some college experience or a high school diploma or less education say they disapprove of Biden’s job as president.

An overwhelming 93% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, including 76% who say they strongly disapprove. Just 6% say they approve.

While large majorities of Republicans overall disapprove of Biden’s job as president, conservative Republicans are more likely than moderate and liberal Republicans to say they very strongly disapprove of Biden’s presidency (85% vs. 60%).

By contrast, seven-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners say they approve of Biden’s performance; 34% strongly approve of the way Biden is handling his job, which is less than half the share of Republicans who strongly disapprove (76%).

Liberal Democrats (77%) are more likely than conservative and moderate Democrats (62%) to say they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.

See the detailed tables accompanying this report for more demographic breakdowns of Biden’s job approval

By about two-to-one, more Americans expect that, in the long run, Biden will be an unsuccessful president (49%) than a successful president (23%); 27% say it is too early to tell.

The share of the public saying that Biden will be unsuccessful is up slightly from January 2022 (43%) and has nearly doubled since January 2021 (26%), shortly before he took office.

Current views of whether Biden will ultimately be successful are similar to expectations for Trump in January 2019. At that time, 47% said Trump would be unsuccessful, 29% said he would be successful and 23% said it was too early to tell.

Most Republicans (84%) say that Biden’s presidency will be unsuccessful, nearly unchanged from a year ago but up 31 percentage points from early 2021.

Democrats are more divided in their views of how Biden’s presidency will turn out in the long run: 44% say that he will be successful, while a slightly smaller share (38%) say it is too early to tell. About two-in-ten Democrats (18%) say he will be an unsuccessful president.

Views of Republican and Democratic congressional leaders

More Americans express an unfavorable view of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer than a favorable one. Only one congressional leader – House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries – is not viewed negatively, although about half of the public say they have never heard of him, nearly double the share of any other leader in Congress.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans (63%) have an unfavorable opinion of Mitch McConnell, while just 18% view him favorably. McConnell is fairly unpopular with those in his own party: Just 26% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a favorable opinion of the Senate GOP leader, while 56% view him unfavorably. A sizable majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (71%) view McConnell unfavorably.

More Americans also say they have an unfavorable view of Kevin McCarthy (43%) than a favorable one (28%), while about a quarter (27%) say they have never heard of the new House speaker. About half of Republicans (47%) have a favorable view of McCarthy; 63% of Democrats say they have an unfavorable view of him.

About four-in-ten Americans (44%) have an unfavorable view of Chuck Schumer, while smaller shares say they have a favorable (28%) view or have never heard of him (26%). Unlike McConnell, Schumer’s co-partisans view him more favorably than unfavorably. About half of Democrats and Democratic leaners (49%) say they have a favorable view of Schumer; 23% have a negative opinion. About two-thirds of Republicans (68%) say they have an unfavorable view of the Senate majority leader, including 45% who say they have a very unfavorable view.

Hakeem Jeffries, the new House Democratic leader, is still unfamiliar to many Americans. About half (51%) of the public reports never having heard of him. The remainder of Americans are roughly split in their views: 23% view Jeffries favorably, while a nearly identical share (24%) rate him unfavorably. While pluralities of both Republicans and Democrats say they have not heard of Jeffries, he is largely viewed positively among Democrats who know of him (42% of Democrats view him favorably, 9% unfavorably) and negatively among Republicans who have heard of him (40% unfavorable, 7% favorable).

The share of Americans who offer an opinion of Kevin McCarthy, who became speaker of the house last month, has increased substantially since July.

The share of the public who offer a favorable opinion of McCarthy is up nine percentage points since then (28% now, up from 19% last summer), while the share who have an unfavorable opinion is largely unchanged (43% today, 41% then). While 27% still say they have not heard of Kevin McCarthy, that is down from 37% in July. Both Republicans and Democrats are now more likely to express an opinion of McCarthy than they were last year.

Among Republicans, the share saying they have a favorable view of McCarthy has increased 13 percentage points since the summer, from 34% to 47%. About a quarter (26%) view him negatively, little changed since July.

Since July, the share of Democrats with an unfavorable opinion of McCarthy has increased from 54% to 63%. The share of Democrats with a favorable view is little different than in July, and just 11% offer a positive view of the GOP speaker.

Americans’ views of Kamala Harris

Vice President Kamala Harris’ favorable ratings are largely unchanged since last July. A narrow majority of Americans (56%) say they have a very or mostly unfavorable view of Harris, while 39% say they have a very or mostly favorable view.

About nine-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners (89%) have an unfavorable opinion of Harris, including two-thirds (66%) who have a very unfavorable opinion. Only 8% say they have a favorable view.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, seven-in-ten have a favorable view of Harris, including 15% who have a very favorable view. A quarter of Democrats view Harris unfavorably.

Most Republicans say congressional leadership should stand up to Biden

Over the last several years, clear majorities of Republicans have expressed a preference for GOP congressional leaders to stand up to Biden on important issues, even if it makes it harder to address the country’s problems. In contrast, Democrats have consistently expressed more support for Biden working with Republicans, even if it means some disappointment for Democratic voters. However, those in both parties are somewhat more likely to favor compromise with opposing leaders than they were a year ago.

About a third of Republicans (34%) now prefer that GOP congressional leaders try to work with Biden to accomplish things, even if that means disappointing some Republican voters. This is up from 26% who said this in January 2022 – but is roughly on par with GOP opinion two years ago.

Today, a majority of Democrats (58%) would prefer to see Biden try to work with GOP leaders, even at the cost of disappointing some Biden voters. This is similar to Democratic opinion in January of 2021, shortly before Biden took office. But in 2022, Democrats were about evenly divided on this question, with half saying Biden should try to work with Republicans and 48% saying he should stand up to them.

Americans continue to express largely negative views of national economic conditions. Today, about two-in-ten (21%) rate the nation’s economy as excellent or good, up modestly from the 17% who said this in October and the 13% who had positive views of the economy in July. Still, positive ratings remain lower than they were a year ago (when 28% said the economy was in excellent or good shape).

Nearly eight-in-ten (78%) now view economic conditions in the U.S. as either only fair (47%) or poor (32%).

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents continue to offer more positive assessments of economic conditions than Republicans and Republican leaners: 31% of Democrats say economic conditions are excellent or good, compared with just 12% of Republicans.

The public also remains pessimistic about future economic conditions. Four-in-ten adults (40%) expect economic conditions to worsen over the next year, while about a quarter (23%) say they will improve; 36% say conditions will be about the same as they are today.

Americans’ outlook is slightly more negative than it was this time last year, when 35% expected economic conditions to worsen and 23% expected them to improve.

Republicans are more pessimistic than Democrats about future economic conditions: Over half of Republicans (56%) say economic conditions will worsen over the next year, compared with a quarter of Democrats. Conversely, Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans to say conditions will be better a year from now (34% vs. 13%).

Majorities remain very concerned about prices for food, consumer goods, energy and housing

Three-quarters of Americans say they are very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, while six-in-ten say the same about the price of gasoline and energy and the cost of housing.

Smaller shares express concerns about limited availability of consumer products, employers being unable to find workers, how the stock market is doing, or people who want to work being unable to find jobs.

Americans differ by party in their economic concerns.

About eight-in-ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (81%) say they are very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, while 72% are very concerned about the price of gasoline and energy. This compares with 69% and 48% among Democrats, respectively.

Republicans are also more likely to say they are very concerned about limited availability for some consumer goods (41% vs. 30% among Democrats), employers being unable to find workers for hire (37% vs. 23%), and how the stock market is doing (34% vs. 20%).

By contrast, Democrats are somewhat more likely than Republicans to say they are very concerned about the cost of housing (65% vs. 55%) and people who want to work being unable to find employment (34% vs. 25%).

As was the case in October, there is greater public concern over prices for food and consumer goods, as well as energy and housing prices, than on other economic issues.

However, while the shares expressing concern about the price of food and consumer goods and housing are little changed since October, the share expressing concern over the price of gasoline and energy has dropped from 69% to 60%. Both Republicans and Democrats are less concerned about energy prices than they were in the fall.

Looking ahead, Americans express more pessimism than optimism about prices

Americans are also pessimistic about the future costs of goods, housing and health care.

A narrow majority of adults (54%) say they expect the affordability of food and consumer goods to be a little or a lot worse a year from now, while fewer than a quarter (21%) say it will be a little or a lot better. There are similar views about housing affordability (49% predict it will worsen, 19% say it will improve) and the affordability of health care (44% worse, 11% better).

More Republicans than Democrats predict worsening economic conditions on each of these dimensions over the course of the next year.

Republicans are more likely to say the affordability of food and consumer goods will be a little or a lot worse a year from now, with 67% predicting this compared with 41% of Democrats. About half of Republicans also expect the affordability of health care (52%) and housing (54%) to worsen, while smaller shares of Democrats (36% and 44%, respectively) say the same.

Four-in-ten Republicans (40%) say the availability of good-paying jobs will worsen over the next year, as do 29% of Democrats.

This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:

Research team

Carroll Doherty, Director, Political Research
Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Political Research
Baxter Oliphant, Senior Researcher
Gabe Borelli, Research Associate
Andrew Daniller, Research Associate
Hannah Hartig, Research Associate
Amina Dunn, Research Analyst
Ted Van Green, Research Analyst
Andy Cerda, Research Assistant

Communications and editorial

Nida Asheer, Communications Manager
Talia Price, Communications Associate
David Kent, Senior Copy Editor

Graphic design and web publishing

Alissa Scheller, Information Graphics Designer
Reem Nadeem, Associate Digital Producer

Methodology

Andrew Mercer, Senior Research Methodologist
Dorene Asare-Marfo, Panel Manager
Dana Popky, Associate Panel Manager
Arnold Lau, Research Methodologist

The American Trends Panel survey methodology

Overview

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.

Data in this report is drawn from the panel wave conducted from Jan. 18 to Jan. 24, 2023. A total of 5,152 panelists responded out of 5,715 who were sampled, for a response rate of 90%. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 4%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is less than 1%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 5,152 respondents is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.

Panel recruitment

The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 9,942 (50%) agreed to participate.

In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a stratified, random sample of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. Sampled households receive mailings asking a randomly selected adult to complete a survey online. A question at the end of the survey asks if the respondent is willing to join the ATP. In 2020 and 2021 another stage was added to the recruitment. Households that did not respond to the online survey were sent a paper version of the questionnaire, $5 and a postage-paid return envelope. A subset of the adults who returned the paper version of the survey were invited to join the ATP. This subset of adults received a follow-up mailing with a $10 pre-incentive and invitation to join the ATP.

Across the five address-based recruitments, a total of 23,176 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 20,341 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. In each household, one adult was selected and asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel. Of the 30,283 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 12,442 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted.

The U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.¹ The American Trends Panel never uses breakout routers or chains that direct respondents to additional surveys.

Sample design

The overall target population for this survey was non-institutionalized persons ages 18 and older living in the U.S., including Alaska and Hawaii. It featured a stratified random sample from the ATP in which Hispanic men, Non-Hispanic Black men, and Non-Hispanic Asian adults were selected with certainty. The remaining panelists were sampled at rates designed to ensure that the share of respondents in each stratum is proportional to its share of the U.S. adult population to the greatest extent possible. Respondent weights are adjusted to account for differential probabilities of selection as described in the Weighting section below.

Questionnaire development and testing

The questionnaire was developed by Pew Research Center in consultation with Ipsos. The web program was rigorously tested on both PC and mobile devices by the Ipsos project management team and Pew Research Center researchers. The Ipsos project management team also populated test data that was analyzed in SPSS to ensure the logic and randomizations were working as intended before launching the survey.

Incentives

All respondents were offered a post-paid incentive for their participation. Respondents could choose to receive the post-paid incentive in the form of a check or a gift code to Amazon.com or could choose to decline the incentive. Incentive amounts ranged from $5 to $15 depending on whether the respondent belongs to a part of the population that is harder or easier to reach. Differential incentive amounts were designed to increase panel survey participation among groups that traditionally have low survey response propensities.

Data collection protocol

The data collection field period for this survey was Jan. 18 to Jan. 24, 2023. Postcard notifications were mailed to all ATP panelists with a known residential address on Jan. 18. 

Invitations were sent out in two separate launches: soft launch and full launch. Sixty panelists were included in the soft launch, which began with an initial invitation sent on Jan. 18. The ATP panelists chosen for the initial soft launch were known responders who had completed previous ATP surveys within one day of receiving their invitation. All remaining English- and Spanish-speaking panelists were included in the full launch and were sent an invitation on Jan. 19.

All panelists with an email address received an email invitation and up to two email reminders if they did not respond to the survey. All ATP panelists who consented to SMS messages received an SMS invitation and up to two SMS reminders.

Data quality checks

To ensure high-quality data, the Center’s researchers performed data quality checks to identify any respondents showing clear patterns of satisficing. This includes checking for very high rates of leaving questions blank, as well as always selecting the first or last answer presented. As a result of this checking, four ATP respondents were removed from the survey dataset prior to weighting and analysis.

Weighting

The ATP data is weighted in a multistep process that accounts for multiple stages of sampling and nonresponse that occur at different points in the survey process. First, each panelist begins with a base weight that reflects their probability of selection for their initial recruitment survey. These weights are then rescaled and adjusted to account for changes in the design of ATP recruitment surveys from year to year. Finally, the weights are calibrated to align with the population benchmarks in the accompanying table to correct for nonresponse to recruitment surveys and panel attrition. If only a subsample of panelists was invited to participate in the wave, this weight is adjusted to account for any differential probabilities of selection.

Among the panelists who completed the survey, this weight is then calibrated again to align with the population benchmarks identified in the accompanying table and trimmed at the 1st and 99th percentiles to reduce the loss in precision stemming from variance in the weights. Sampling errors and tests of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey.

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Dispositions and response rates

Adjusting income and defining income tiers

To create upper-, middle- and lower-income tiers, respondents’ 2021 family incomes were adjusted for differences in purchasing power by geographic region and household size. “Middle-income” adults live in families with annual incomes that are two-thirds to double the median family income in the panel (after incomes have been adjusted for the local cost of living and household size). The middle-income range for the American Trends Panel is about $43,800 to $131,500 annually for an average family of three. Lower-income families have incomes less than roughly $43,800, and upper-income families have incomes greater than roughly $131,500 (all figures expressed in 2021 dollars).

Based on these adjustments, 29% of respondents in Wave 120 are lower income, 47% are middle income and 18% fall into the upper-income tier. An additional 6% either didn’t offer a response to the income question or the household size question.

For more information about how the income tiers were determined, please see here.

© Pew Research Center, 2023