Joe Biden began his presidency with positive job ratings and broad public confidence in his ability to deal with a number of major challenges – particularly the public health impact of the coronavirus. He starts his second year with diminished job approval and majorities expressing little or no confidence in him on many of these same issues, the coronavirus included.

Currently, 41% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s job performance, which is down slightly from September (44%) and substantially lower than last April (59%).

With the omicron variant continuing to spread across the United States, fewer than half of Americans (44%) now say they are very or somewhat confident in Biden to handle the coronavirus; that share is down 21 percentage points since March (65%).

A new national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 10-17 among 5,128 adults on the nationally representative American Trends Panel, finds that Biden and his party are facing a difficult political environment with the midterm elections 10 months away:

• Just 21% of the public is satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. That is 12 points lower than last March (33%) and 15 points lower than in February 2018 (36%), near the beginning of the previous midterm year. For more, see Americans broadly negative about the state of the nation, but most see a better year ahead.
• The public’s views of the nation’s economy remain quite negative; just 28% say economic conditions are excellent or good. Overwhelming majorities say that prices for food and consumer goods (89%) and gas prices (82%) are worse than they were a year ago, with more than half saying they are “a lot” worse (60% food and consumer goods, 54% gas prices). However, a 56% majority says the availability of jobs has improved compared with a year ago.
• Nearly two years after the coronavirus first began spreading in the United States, majorities continue to say COVID-19 is a major threat to the economy (69%) and to the health of the U.S. population (57%). When thinking about the pandemic, Americans are split over whether the worst is still to come (50% say this) or the worst is over (49%).

While opinions about Biden and the state of the nation continue to be deeply divided along partisan lines, Democrats have become less supportive of the president and less satisfied with the way things are going in the country. Just 29% of Democrats express satisfaction with the state of the nation, down 18 points since March.

Since September, Biden’s job approval has declined 3 percentage points among the public overall, but 7 points among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (from 75% to 68%); over the past six months his job rating among Democrats has fallen 20 points (from 88%). The falloff in this period has been less pronounced among Republicans and Republican leaners (10 points since July), who already overwhelmingly disapproved of the president’s performance.

In addition, favorable views of Congress have declined, with the change largely driven by Democrats. Overall, 28% of the public expresses a favorable opinion of Congress, compared with 36% last April. While Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to have a favorable view of Congress (36% vs. 18%), the share of Democrats who view the Democratic-led Congress favorably has fallen 14 points since last April (from 50%); Republicans’ views are little changed (21% then, 18% now).

Nonetheless, the public continues to have a more positive image of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, though majorities have unfavorable impressions of both. Currently, 43% view the Democratic Party favorably and 35% have a favorable view of the GOP. Ratings for both parties have slipped slightly since last year; notably, both coalitions continue to view their own parties somewhat less favorably than they did in March 2021.

And larger shares of Americans say they agree more with the Democrats than with Republicans on several key policy areas, including policies to deal with the health impact of the coronavirus (41% agree with the Democratic Party, while 27% the Republican Party; 31% agree with neither). Significantly more Americans also say they agree with the Democratic Party than the GOP on policies of climate change (by 22 points), health care (16 points), abortion (10 points) and education (8 points). Comparable shares agree with both parties on economic, immigration and gun policy. Among eight policy areas included in the survey, there is none on which a significantly larger share agrees with the GOP than the Democrats.

Democrats also are more widely seen as governing honestly than Republicans (45% vs. 39%), and a larger share of the public says the Democratic Party (51%) than the Republican Party (46%) respects the country’s democratic institutions. Yet majorities view both parties as “too extreme” in their positions; 57% say this describes the Democratic Party very or somewhat well, while 60% say it describes the Republican Party. 

The year begins with members of both parties less willing to support their parties’ leaders making concessions to achieve results than they were a year ago. Nearly half of Democrats (48%) want Biden to “stand up” to Republicans even if it makes it harder to address key problems; 37% said this last year, shortly before his inauguration.

Republicans, who were more resistant to making concessions a year ago, have become even more so; 72% want GOP leaders to stand up to Biden, up 13 points from last year.

As major pieces of President Joe Biden’s agenda remain bogged down in Congress and the coronavirus pandemic enters its third year, his approval rating continues to decline among many demographic and political groups. Today, 41% of U.S. adults say they approve of how Biden is handling his job as president, which is down modestly from the 44% who said this in September.

Biden’s standing has further slipped among members of his own party after declining in September. About three-quarters of adults who identify as Democrats (76%) say they approve of Biden’s performance – down 7 percentage points from the fall. There remains a wide gap in approval between Democrats and those who lean toward the Democratic Party. A narrow majority of Democratic leaners (56%) approve of the president’s job performance today, little different than in September.

Among Republicans, the last few months have seen no change in the president’s job performance ratings. One-in-ten or fewer adults who identify as Republicans (6%) or who lean toward the Republican Party (10%) give positive assessments.

Today, 41% of adults approve of Biden’s job performance, including 21% who say they strongly approve. In September, 44% approved of Biden, while 27% strongly approved.

Biden’s job approval numbers have declined across most demographic groups since September.

The share of Democrats and Democratic leaners saying they approve of Biden’s job as president has fallen by 7 percentage points since September. Approval of Biden’s performance is down among both liberal Democrats (72% today vs. 80% in September) and conservative and moderate Democrats (65% vs. 71%)

Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents remain disapproving of Biden’s job as president. Roughly nine-in-ten Republicans (91%) disapprove of Biden’s performance in office, while three-quarters strongly disapprove. Republicans’ views of Biden’s job performance are little changed from September.

Today, 60% of Black adults approve of Biden’s job performance, down from 67% in September. The share of White adults who approve of the way Biden is handling his job has also declined, from 37% to 33%; roughly six-in-ten White adults disapprove of Biden’s performance. The shares of Hispanic (52%) and Asian adults (55%) who approve of Biden’s performance are essentially unchanged since September.

Adults ages 18 to 29 are somewhat less likely than those 30 and older to say they approve of Biden’s job performance. And relatively few adults under age 50 strongly approve of Biden’s performance, with just 14% of those ages 18 to 29 and 18% of those 30 to 49 saying they strongly approve. About a quarter of adults older than 50 (26%) strongly approve.

Adults with a postgraduate degree offer the most favorable ratings of Biden’s performance: 54% approve, compared with about four-in-ten of those with a college degree but no postgraduate experience (42%), those with some college experience but no degree (38%) and those without any college experience (37%).

Confidence in Biden on key issues facing the country

Confidence in Biden to handle several major issues facing the country also has declined substantially since last year. Today, fewer than half of Americans say they are confident in Biden to handle each of the eight issues asked about in the survey, including two previous areas of strength for Biden – his ability to handle the coronavirus outbreak and the economy.

Just over four-in-ten say they are very or somewhat confident in Biden to deal with the public health impact of the coronavirus (44% of Americans are very or somewhat confident), make good decisions about economic policy (44%) and handle an international crisis (43%).

Comparable shares express confidence in him to handle law enforcement and criminal justice, work effectively with Congress, make wise decisions about immigration policy and deal effectively with China.

Early in his presidency, Biden drew less confidence for his ability to unite the country than to handle major issues. That remains the case today: 30% of Americans are confident in him to bring the country closer together, while more than twice as many (69%) have little or no confidence in him to do this.

Confidence in Biden on several issues has fallen over the past year, but the decline has been particularly notable when it comes to his ability to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus.

Last March, the public expressed more confidence in him on the coronavirus than other issues; 65% said they were very or somewhat confident in his ability to deal with the public health impact of the pandemic. Today, 44% say the same; his rating on the coronavirus is about the same as on the economy and other issues.

The shares expressing confidence in Biden’s handling of economic policy, immigration policy, criminal justice issues and dealing with China also have fallen over similar periods of time, though most Democrats still have confidence in Biden on these issues.

The erosion in confidence in Biden’s handling of issues has come among members of both parties, but it is especially evident among Democrats. A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (69%) say they are very or somewhat confident the president can handle the health impacts of the coronavirus outbreak, but the share saying this is now 12 percentage points lower than it was in September (81%) and 23 points lower than last March (92%).

As they have throughout his presidency, Republicans express little confidence in Biden’s ability to handle these issues and for the most part there have been only modest changes. Still, a third of Republicans and GOP leaners expressed confidence in Biden on the coronavirus last March; today, only about half as many (14%) do so.

Will Biden be a successful or unsuccessful president?

About a year into Biden’s time in the White House, about four-in-ten Americans (43%) say he will be an unsuccessful president in the long run. Another 37% say it’s too early to tell, and two-in-ten say he will be successful.

The public’s views are roughly comparable to Donald Trump’s ratings in a telephone survey conducted in January 2018 (in that survey, 41% of Americans said Trump would be unsuccessful, 34% said it was too early to tell and 23% said he would be successful).

The share saying Biden will be unsuccessful (43%) increased 17 percentage points compared with January 2021 (26%), shortly before he took office. This change is largely driven by a 28-point increase in the share of Republicans and Republican leaners who say Biden will be unsuccessful (53% said this in January 2021 versus 81% now).

A smaller share of Democrats and Democratic leaners now say Biden will be successful (34%) compared with a year ago (51%). About half of Democrats (51%) say it is too early to tell whether Biden will be successful or unsuccessful, which is up 6 points from a year ago (45%).

Democrats say Biden should listen equally to moderates and liberals in his party

A majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (63%) say that, in handling his job as president, Biden should listen about equally to liberal and moderate Democrats in the party. Fewer (53%) say he is actually doing this, however. 

When asked who Biden is listening to in the party, a larger share of Democrats say he is listening more to moderate Democrats (32%) than to liberal Democrats (13%).

Among liberal Democrats, far more say Biden listens more to moderates than liberals (39% vs. 9%). About half of liberal Democrats (51%) say he listens to both equally. Among conservative and moderate Democrats, more also say he listens more to moderates, though the margin is smaller (27% say moderates, 18% say liberals).

A year ago, most Democrats expected him to listen equally to liberals and moderates in the party (62% said he “will listen” about equally in January 2021).

Ahead of this year’s midterm elections, the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably than the Republican Party. And on several key issues, including the coronavirus, health care and education, more Americans say they agree with the policies of Democrats than Republicans.

Still, many Americans are skeptical of both parties. For example, fewer than half of Americans say the Democratic Party (45%) and Republican Party (39%) “governs in an honest and ethical way.”

Favorable views of both parties have slipped since last March. Today, 35% of adults say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party – down slightly from 38% about a year ago. Similarly, 43% of adults give the Democratic Party a favorable rating today; this is 4 percentage points lower than last March

Fewer Democrats and Republicans give their own party favorable ratings than did so last year. Since March 2021, the share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who view their own party favorably has fallen 7 percentage points (74% then vs. 67% today). Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, favorable ratings have declined by 10 percentage points (81% in March vs. 71% today).

As has been the case for the past several years, large majorities of partisans given the opposing party negative ratings: 90% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party, while an identical share of Republicans and GOP leaners have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party.

Independents who lean toward a party – unlike those who identify as Republicans or Democrats – express lukewarm views toward their party. While 80% of Americans who identify as Republicans have a favorable view of their party, just 46% of those who leantoward the GOP do so. A sizable share of Republican leaners (53%) hold an unfavorable view of the Republican Party.

Yet independents who lean toward the GOP have much more negative views of the Democratic Party. In fact, 86% of Republican leaners have an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party, which is only somewhat lower than the share of Republican identifiers who view the Democrats negatively (92%).

The pattern is similar among those who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. Among those who say they consider themselves a Democrat, 84% hold a favorable view of the party. Those who lean toward the Democratic Party are much more divided: 52% have a favorable opinion, while 48% have an unfavorable opinion. However, Democratic leaners are almost as likely to have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party as those who identify as Democrats – 87% and 91%, respectively. (For more on independents and partisan leaners, see “Political Independents: Who They Are, What They Think.”)

Substantial shares say both parties are ‘too extreme in their positions’

Comparable shares of Americans say that both the Republican and Democratic parties are too extreme in their positions, while the Democratic Party holds modest advantages with the public on governing honestly and ethically and respecting the country’s democratic institutions and traditions.

Six-in-ten adults say the phrase “too extreme in its positions” describes the Republican Party very or somewhat well, while a similar share of the public (57%) says this about the Democratic Party.

Fewer than half of adults (45%) say the phrase “governs in an honest and ethical way” describes the Democratic Party at least somewhat well; even fewer (39%) say the same about the Republican Party.

And while about half of adults (51%) say that “respects the country’s democratic institutions and traditions” describes the Democratic Party very or somewhat well, a somewhat smaller share of Americans (46%) say the same about the GOP.

Republicans and Democrats generally view their own parties in a positive light while offering critical assessments of the opposing party. However, roughly four-in-ten Republicans (43%) – and a comparable share of Democrats (46%) – say “too extreme in its positions” describes their own party at least somewhat well.

By contrast, sizable majorities of both Republicans (67%) and Democrats (72%) say their party governs in an honest and ethical way and respects the country’s democratic institutions and traditions (77% of Republicans say this about the GOP, 80% of Democrats say it about the Democratic Party).

More agree with the Democratic Party than Republican Party on several key policy issues

Americans are more likely to say that they agree with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party on several policy issues, including climate change, health care, and COVID-19.

Among eight policy issues included, there is none on which a significantly larger share agrees with the Republican Party. However, roughly similar shares agree with each party on policies addressing the economy, guns and immigration.

Across the eight issue areas, between about a quarter and a third of adults say they agree with neither party.

On policies to deal with climate change, 44% of Americans say they agree with the Democratic Party, compared with roughly two-in-ten (22%) who say the same about the Republican Party. The public is also more likely to say that they strongly agree with the Democratic Party than with the Republican Party (21% vs. 8%).

This pattern also holds for several other issues. Roughly four-in-ten adults say they agree with the Democratic Party when it comes to health care policy (42%), policies to deal with the health impact of the coronavirus (41%), abortion policy (40%) and education policy (39%). About three-in-ten adults say they agree with the Republican Party on each of these policy areas, and roughly similar shares say they agree with neither party.

While the Republican-Democratic balance on many of these questions is little changed over recent years, the share of Americans saying they agree with neither party has increased on economic and healthcare policy since 2019.

Among Democrats, majorities of between 60% and 70% they agree with their party on each of the eight policy issues, but there is more variation among Republicans. More than seven-in-ten Republicans say they agree with their party on gun policy, economic policy and immigration policy, while fewer than half (45%) say they agree with the GOP on policies dealing with climate change.

Few say either party has ‘a lot’ of good ideas

The public faults both parties for having a paucity of good ideas. About a quarter (26%) say the Republican Party has “almost no” good ideas, while another 27% say it has “a few good ideas.” Only about four-in-ten (41%) say it has “some” (32%) or “a lot” of good ideas.

Overall views of the Democratic Party are not much different: 44% say it has at least some good ideas, with just 12% saying it has a lot of good ideas.

Majorities of Republicans (69%) and Democrats (70%) say their party has a lot or some good ideas while largely dismissing the ideas of the other party (just 13% of Republicans say the Democrats have at least some good ideas; 19% of Democrats say this about the GOP).

Overall, 14% of Americans say that both the Republican and Democratic parties have at least some good ideas, while 27% see no more than a few good ideas from either party.

Most partisans see their party as ‘mostly united’

Among partisans, large majorities say that their own party is either completely or mostly united when it comes to the issues facing the country.

At the same time, those who identify as Republicans or Democrats are more likely than those who lean toward that party to say that their party is united.

Most Republicans (77%) say that their party is united, with 71% saying their party is mostly united. Only 6% of Republicans say their party is completely united. About two-in-ten Republicans (21%) say their party is divided, with just 3% saying their party is completely divided. Republican leaners are less likely than those who identify directly with the GOP to say their party is united: 83% of Republican identifiers say their party is united, while two-thirds of Republican leaners say the same.

Together, about two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic leaners (68%) say that their party is united when it comes to the issues facing the country, including only 4% who say the party is completely united. Adults who identify with the Democratic Party are 19 percentage points more likely to say that their party is united than are Democratic leaners (75% vs. 56%).

Among Democrats and leaners combined, view of whether their party is united differ across age groups, with younger Democrats less likely to say that the party is united. Younger Democrats (ages 18 to 29) are about as likely to say that their party is completely or mostly united (52%) as they are to say it is completely or mostly divided (46%). About six-in-ten Democrats ages 30 to 49 (63%) say their party is united, with 36% saying it is divided. Eight-in-ten Democrats 50 and older say their party is united. This pattern holds among both Democratic identifiers and Democratic leaners.

Among Republicans, those ages 50 and older are somewhat more likely than adults under 50 to say that their party is united when it comes to the issues facing the country (80% vs. 74%).

As the country continues to grapple with higher gas prices and supply chain-related obstacles, a sizable majority of Americans (72%) say economic conditions are only fair or poor; just 28% say the economy is excellent or good. And when asked to evaluate how several areas of the economy have changed over the last year, including the prices of food and consumer goods and the federal budget deficit, majorities of the public say six of the eight measures included on this survey are worse than they were last year.

Positive assessments of the economy have been relatively low since April 2020 – shortly after the coronavirus outbreak led to nationwide shutdowns – when 23% rated the economy as excellent or good. Today, 28% of the public rates the economy as excellent or good, which is roughly on par with views from September of last year when 26% rated the economy in this way.

While Republicans and Democrats held broadly similar views of the economy in the early months of the Biden presidency, a wider partisan gap emerged in September, when Democrats and Democratic leaners (34%) were more likely to rate the economy as excellent or good than Republicans and Republican leaners (16%). Today, this division remains: Currently, 36% of Democrats rate the economy as excellent or good, compared with one-in-five Republicans.

The public is also rather pessimistic about the future of the national economy. Today, 27% of adults say they expect that economic conditions will be better a year from now than they are today; 29% said the same September of last year. Larger shares of the public expect the economy to stay the same (37%) or get worse (35%) in the next year.

Republicans, in particular, are more pessimistic in their expectations: More than half of Republicans (54%) expect economic conditions in the country will be worse in the next year. And while 32% of Republicans say they expect the economy will be the same a year from now, few (13%) say they expect economic conditions to improve in the next year.

By contrast, expectations among Democrats are mixed: 38% say they expect the economy will be better in the next year, while 41% Democrats say they expect the economy will remain the same. One-in-five Democrats say they expect economic conditions will be better next year.

How Americans view jobs, prices and other economic trends

When asked to evaluate whether eight areas of the national economy have improved, worsened or stayed about the same over the last year, majorities of Americans say most of these areas are now worse than they were a year ago.

Nearly nine-in-ten (89%) say the prices of food and consumer goods are worse than they were a year ago, including 60% who say they are a lot worse. Slightly fewer say gasoline prices (82%) have gotten worse, while 79% say the cost of housing is worse than it was last year.

Roughly seven-in-ten say the availability of consumer goods (70%) and the federal budget deficit (68%) are worse in comparison with a year ago. And though 55% of adults say the cost of health care is worse than it was last year, 36% say it is about the same.

The public is divided on how the stock market has changed over the last year: 32% of adults say the stock market is worse than it was last year, while 27% say it is better; another 37% say the stock market is about the same as it was a year ago.

The only area of the economy in which a majority of Americans say they’ve seen improvement over the last year is in the availability of jobs. More than half (56%) say the availability of jobs in the country has gotten better over the last year, including 26% who say this has gotten a lot better. About a quarter (24%) say the availability of jobs is about the same, while 19% say the availability of jobs has worsened in the last year.

In some cases, Republicans and Democrats are in sync in their evaluations of recent changes in the economy. Large majorities in both parties say prices for food and consumer goods have gotten worse (94% of Republicans and Republican leaners, 86% of Democrats and Democratic leaners). And there are only modest partisan difference in views of gas prices: 89% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats say they have gotten worse.

Partisans also generally agree about the availability of jobs in the country. Nearly equal shares of Democrats (18%) and Republicans (19%) say the situation is worse than it was last year. However, while 61% of Democrats say the availability of jobs has improved, about half of Republicans (52%) say the same.

The widest partisan gap is on evaluations of the federal budget deficit: Nearly nine-in-ten Republicans (88%) say the federal budget deficit is worse than it was year ago, compared with 54% of Democrats.

But while majorities of Republicans and Democrats say many areas of the economy have worsened in comparison with a year ago, Republicans are more likely to say some of these areas are a lot worse, especially gasoline prices and the prices of food and consumer goods.

About nine-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners (89%) say that gasoline prices are worse than they were a year ago, with 73% saying they are a lot worse. By contrast, while a majority of Democrats (78%) also say gas prices are worse, just 40% say they are lot worse.

Similarly, while 94% of Republicans say that the prices for food and consumer goods have gotten worse over the last year, nearly three-quarters in the GOP (74%) say these prices have gotten a lot worse. By contrast, half of Democrats say the prices for food and consumer goods have gotten a lot worse.

The public’s views of the threat the coronavirus poses to the nation’s health and economy – and to individuals’ personal health and finances – have changed little in recent months amid the spread of the omicron variant throughout the United States.

Nearly seven-in-ten adults (69%) continue to say that the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to the U.S. economy. A quarter say that is it a minor threat to the country’s economy, while just 5% say it is not a threat. The share who say the coronavirus is a major threat to the economy is little changed from August, when 72% called the outbreak a major threat.

A narrower majority of adults (57%) say that the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to the health of the U.S. population as a whole; 35% say it is a minor threat and 8% say it is not a threat to the health of the population. These views also have changed only modestly since August, when 61% said the coronavirus outbreak was a major threat to the health of the population as a whole.

There continue to be wide partisan differences in views of the threat from the coronavirus to public health, though there are smaller differences in assessments of its impact on the economy and individuals’ health and finances.

Republicans and Democrats remain deeply divided in their views of the health threat posed by the pandemic. Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans to say the coronavirus is a major threat to the health of the population as a whole: 76% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say this, compared with 34% of Republicans and GOP leaners. The size of the partisan gap has remained fairly consistent over the past two years. 

By contrast, majorities in both parties view the pandemic as a major threat to the country’s economy. About three-quarters (74%) of Democrats say the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to the economy, as do 66% of Republicans.

Three-in-ten adults say the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to their personal health, and a similar share of Americans (32%) say it is a major threat to their personal financial situation. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say the pandemic is a major threat to their personal health (38% of Democrats say this, compared with 20% of Republicans). There also continue to be sizable differences in these views by race and ethnicity: 49% of Black adults say the coronavirus is a major threat to their personal health, compared with 41% of Hispanic adults, 30% of Asian Americans and about a quarter (24%) of White adults.

As in prior surveys, there are only modest partisan differences in views of the threat from the coronavirus to personal finances. Democrats are somewhat more likely than Republicans to say it is a major threat to their personal finances (35% of Democrats vs. 28% of Republicans). Hispanic (47%) and Black adults (46%) are more likely to say the coronavirus is a major threat to their personal finances than Asian (30%) or White adults (26%).

Public divided on whether the worst is over

About half of adults (49%) now say that the worst of the problems the country is facing from the coronavirus outbreak are behind us, compared with a nearly identical share (50%) who say the worst is still to come. In August 2021, a narrow majority (54%) said that the worst was still to come.

Republicans continue to express more optimistic views on this question than Democrats, though the partisan gap is smaller than at any previous point in the pandemic. A slim majority of Republicans (53%) and 47% of Democrats say that the worst is behind us. The share of Democrats who say the worst is behind us has increased by 7 percentage points since August, while the share of Republicans who say this is unchanged over the same time period.

This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:

Research team

Carroll Doherty, Director, Political Research
Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Political Research
Baxter Oliphant, Senior Researcher
Bradley Jones, Senior Researcher
Andrew Daniller, Research Associate
Hannah Hartig, Research Associate
Amina Dunn, Research Analyst
Ted Van Green, Research Analyst
Vianney Gomez, Research Assistant

Communications and editorial

Nida Asheer, Communications Manager
Calvin Jordan, Communications Associate
David Kent, Senior Copy Editor

Graphic design and web publishing

Alissa Scheller, Information Graphics Designer
Reem Nadeem, Associate Digital Producer

Methodology

Andrew Mercer, Senior Research Methodologist
Nick Bertoni, Senior Panel Manager
Dorene Asare-Marfo, Research Methodologist
Arnold Lau, Research Methodologist

The American Trends Panel survey methodology

Overview

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.

Data in this report is drawn from the panel wave conducted from Jan. 10 to Jan. 17, 2022 and included oversamples of Asian, Black and Hispanic Americans in order to provide more precise estimates of the opinions and experiences of these smaller demographic subgroups. These oversampled groups are weighted back to reflect their correct proportions in the population. A total of 5,128 panelists responded out of 5,850 who were sampled, for a response rate of 88%. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 3%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is less than 1%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 5,128 respondents is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points.

Panel recruitment

The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 9,942 (50%) agreed to participate.

In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a stratified, random sample of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. Sampled households receive mailings asking a randomly selected adult to complete a survey online. A question at the end of the survey asks if the respondent is willing to join the ATP. Starting in 2020 another stage was added to the recruitment. Households that do not respond to the online survey are sent a paper version of the questionnaire, $5 and a postage-paid return envelope. A subset of the adults returning the paper version of the survey are invited to join the ATP. This subset of adults receive a follow-up mailing with a $10 pre-incentive and invitation to join the ATP.

Across the four address-based recruitments, a total of 19,822 adults were invited to join the ATP, of whom 17,472 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. In each household, the adult with the next birthday was asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel. Of the 27,414 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 11,697 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted.

The U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.¹ The American Trends Panel never uses breakout routers or chains that direct respondents to additional surveys.

Sample design

The overall target population for this survey was non-institutionalized persons ages 18 and older, living in the U.S., including Alaska and Hawaii.

This study featured a stratified random sample from the ATP. The sample was allocated according to the following strata, in order: Black, Asian or Hispanic Americans, tablet households, not registered to vote, high school education or less, age 18 to 34, uses internet weekly or less, nonvolunteers and all other categories not already falling into any of the above.

Black, Asian and Hispanic panelists were sampled with certainty. The remaining strata were sampled at rates designed to ensure that the share of respondents in each stratum is proportional to its share of the U.S. adult population to the greatest extent possible. Respondent weights are adjusted to account for differential probabilities of selection as described in the Weighting section below.

Questionnaire development and testing

The questionnaire was developed by Pew Research Center in consultation with Ipsos. The web program was rigorously tested on both PC and mobile devices by the Ipsos project management team and Pew Research Center researchers. The Ipsos project management team also populated test data that was analyzed in SPSS to ensure the logic and randomizations were working as intended before launching the survey.

Incentives

All respondents were offered a post-paid incentive for their participation. Respondents could choose to receive the post-paid incentive in the form of a check or a gift code to Amazon.com or could choose to decline the incentive. Incentive amounts ranged from $5 to $20 depending on whether the respondent belongs to a part of the population that is harder or easier to reach. Differential incentive amounts were designed to increase panel survey participation among groups that traditionally have low survey response propensities.

Data collection protocol

The data collection field period for this survey was Jan. 10 to Jan. 17, 2022. Postcard notifications were mailed to all ATP panelists with a known residential address on Jan. 10. 

Invitations were sent out in two separate launches: Soft Launch and Full Launch. Sixty panelists were included in the soft launch, which began with an initial invitation sent on Jan. 10, 2022. The ATP panelists chosen for the initial soft launch were known responders who had completed previous ATP surveys within one day of receiving their invitation. All remaining English- and Spanish-speaking panelists were included in the full launch and were sent an invitation on Jan. 11. All panelists with an email address received an email invitation and up to two email reminders if they did not respond to the survey. All ATP panelists that consented to SMS messages received an SMS invitation and up to two SMS reminders.

Data quality checks

To ensure high-quality data, the Center’s researchers performed data quality checks to identify any respondents showing clear patterns of satisficing. This includes checking for very high rates of leaving questions blank, as well as always selecting the first or last answer presented. As a result of this checking, three ATP respondents were removed from the survey dataset prior to weighting and analysis.

Weighting

The ATP data is weighted in a multistep process that accounts for multiple stages of sampling and nonresponse that occur at different points in the survey process. First, each panelist begins with a base weight that reflects their probability of selection for their initial recruitment survey. The base weights for panelists recruited in different years are scaled to be proportionate to the effective sample size for all panelists in their cohort who were active at the time of the most recent profile survey. These weights are then calibrated to align with the population benchmarks in the accompanying table to correct for nonresponse to recruitment surveys and panel attrition up to that point. A second calibration adjustment was made to account for more recent attrition. If only a subsample of panelists was invited to participate in the wave, this weight is adjusted to account for any differential probabilities of selection.

Among the panelists who completed the survey, this weight is then calibrated again to align with the population benchmarks identified in the accompanying table and trimmed at the 1st and 99th percentiles to reduce the loss in precision stemming from variance in the weights. Sampling errors and tests of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting.

Some of the population benchmarks used for weighting come from surveys conducted prior to the coronavirus outbreak that began in February 2020. However, the weighting variables for panelists recruited in 2021 were measured at the time they were recruited to the panel. Likewise, the profile variables for existing panelists were updated from panel surveys conducted in July or August 2021.

This does not pose a problem for most of the variables used in the weighting, which are quite stable at both the population and individual levels. However, volunteerism may have changed over the intervening period in ways that made their 2021 measurements incompatible with the available (pre-pandemic) benchmarks. To is weighted using the profile variables that were measured in 2020. For all other weighting dimensions, the more recent panelist measurements from 2021 are used.

For panelists recruited in 2021, plausible values were imputed using the 2020 volunteerism values from existing panelists with similar characteristics. This ensures that any patterns of change that were observed in the existing panelists were also reflected in the new recruits when the weighting was performed.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey.

Note: This survey includes oversamples of Asian, Black and Hispanic respondents. Unweighted sample sizes do not account for the sample design or weighting and do not describe a group’s contribution to weighted estimates. See the Sample design and Weighting sections above for details. 

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Dispositions and response rates