As Democrats and Republicans prepare for their party conventions, a new national survey finds high voter engagement with the presidential campaign – and a record share saying it “really matters” who wins in November when it comes to making progress on important national issues.

Yet the coronavirus outbreak continues to cast a large shadow over the 2020 presidential election. Just half of U.S. registered voters (50%) say it will be very or somewhat easy to vote in the upcoming elections, while about the same share (49%) expects to have difficulties casting a ballot. That is a substantial change since October 2018, shortly before that year’s midterm elections, when 85% of registered voters said it would be easy to vote.

Voters who support Donald Trump are far more likely than those who support Joe Biden to say it will be easy to vote this year. However, the shares of both Trump and Biden supporters who expect it will be easy to vote are much lower than the shares of voters who said this in 2018 – regardless of which party’s candidate they supported.

There also are stark differences between Trump and Biden supporters about how they prefer to vote. Most registered voters who support Trump or lean toward supporting him would rather vote in person in the presidential election (80%), either on Election Day (60%) or earlier (20%); only 17% prefer to vote by mail. By contrast, a majority of voters who support or lean toward supporting Biden say their preference is to vote by mail in the presidential election (58%).

In the midst of a pandemic that has taken more than 160,000 American lives and ravaged the nation’s economy, interest in the presidential campaign is about as high as it was in June 2016 and much higher than during the previous three elections when incumbent presidents were on the ballot.

Currently, 83% of registered voters say it really matters who wins the presidency, up from 74% four years ago and the highest share saying this in two decades of Pew Research Center surveys. Nearly identical shares of registered voters in both parties say it really matters who prevails; other indicators of engagement with the election are equally high among Republican and Democratic voters.

With less than three months until Election Day, Biden has an advantage over Trump in voter preferences: 53% of registered voters say if the election were held today they would vote for Biden or lean toward voting for him, while 45% support or lean toward voting for Trump.

At this point, Biden has a broader base of support among voters, while Trump’s support is much stronger. Two-thirds of Trump’s supporters (66%) say they support him strongly, compared with fewer than half (46%) of Biden’s supporters.

However, nearly identical shares of Biden and Trump supporters say they are certain to vote for their candidate in the presidential election (84% of Biden supporters, 85% of Trump supporters).

While virtually all of the “strong” supporters of both Biden and Trump say they are certain to vote for their preferred candidate, 90% of Biden’s “moderate” supporters express certainty about voting for him; a somewhat smaller majority of Trump supporters (83%) say they are certain to vote for him.

For Biden supporters, opposition to Trump is by far the most frequently mentioned reason why they support him. Asked an open-ended question about the main reason they support or lean toward Biden, a 56% majority of his supporters cite their opposition to Trump; far fewer mention Biden’s leadership or performance as a candidate (19%) or his personality (13%).

By comparison, Trump supporters cite a variety of reasons for supporting him, including his leadership and performance as president (23%), his issue and policy positions, as well as their opposition to Biden (19%).

This is very different from the 2016 presidential campaign, when opposition to the other candidate was among the top reasons given by supporters of both Trump and Hillary Clinton for their voting decisions.

The concerns expressed by Trump and Biden supporters about their own candidate also are very different. As was the case during the 2016 campaign, many voters who support Trump have reservations about his temperament: In an open-ended question, 25% mention an aspect of his temperament as their biggest concern, with another 14% specifically citing his tweeting.

For Biden, by contrast, the most frequently mentioned concerns among his supporters center on his age and health. Nearly a third of Biden supporters (31%) say that his age or his health is what concerns them about him – far more than the shares citing his issue or policy positions (15%) or other concerns. Just 1% of Trump supporters express concerns about his age or health.

The study of voters’ views of the 2020 presidential campaign, which includes views of the candidates and the parties, the importance of major issues and concerns about voting amid the coronavirus outbreak, is based on two national surveys by Pew Research Center: A survey conducted July 27-Aug. 2 among 11,001 adults, including 9,114 registered voters, on the Center’s American Trends Panel; and a separate survey, conducted July 23-Aug. 4 on cellphones and landlines among 1,750 adults, including 1,455 registered voters.

Other major findings of the surveys

Biden supporters say they’d be relieved if he wins and angry if Trump wins. A majority of Biden supporters (77%) say they would be relieved if he wins the election; just 16% say they’d be excited. And a larger share of Biden supporters (61%) say they would be angry if Trump wins, compared with Hillary Clinton supporters in 2016 (46% angry). Today, more Trump supporters say they would be relieved (61%) than excited (30%) if their candidate wins this year. And while 37% of Trump supporters say they would be angry if Biden wins, that is lower than the share who said they would be angry if Clinton won in 2016 (46%). Voters are divided over who they think will win. Half of registered voters say that, regardless of whom they support, they think Trump will win the presidential election, while about as many (48%) expect a Biden victory. Throughout the 2016 campaign, majorities of voters consistently said they expected Clinton to win.

The economy is voters’ top issue. A sizable majority of registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very important in their decision about whom to vote for; smaller shares say health care (68%), Supreme Court appointments (64%) and the coronavirus outbreak (62%) are very important issues. Trump supporters overwhelmingly cite the economy as a very important issue (88%), while large majorities of Biden supporters say health care (84%) and the coronavirus outbreak (82%) are very important to their vote.

GOP leads on the economy but trails on other issues, including the coronavirus. By 49% to 40%, registered voters are more likely to say the Republican Party, rather than the Democratic Party, can do a better job on the economy. The Democratic Party holds wide leads on several issues, including climate change, abortion and contraception, health care, issues involving race and ethnicity, and handling the public health impacts of the coronavirus outbreak. Nearly half of voters (47%) say the Democratic Party could do a better job in handling the public health impact of the coronavirus outbreak, compared with 35% who say the GOP could do better.

Record share of voters see clear differences between the candidates. Fully 86% of registered voters say Trump and Biden take different positions on the issues, the highest share saying this in presidential elections dating to 2000 (this question was not asked in 2016). And just 8% of voters agree that either candidate would make a good president. That is only slightly lower than four years ago, but in 2012 nearly a quarter of voters (24%) agreed that either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would make a good president.

With less than three months until the 2020 presidential election, a larger share of registered voters say they would support Joe Biden (53%) over Donald Trump (45%) if the election were held today. But when it comes to how strongly voters back their chosen candidate, 66% of Trump supporters say they support him strongly, while just 46% of Biden supporters say the same.

Nearly a quarter of voters who back Trump say they support him moderately (23%). Another 11% say they lean toward Trump (voters who declined to express a preference between the two major candidates in an initial question were asked which candidate they lean toward).

Support for Biden is more tepid; 43% of registered voters who say they would vote for Biden if the presidential election were held today say they moderately support him. About one-in-ten (11%) lean toward Biden.

The overwhelming majority of registered voters who currently support Biden and Trump (excluding those who lean toward either candidate) are locked into their choices. More than eight-in-ten Biden voters (84%) and Trump voters (85%) say they are certain to support their preferred candidate in the upcoming presidential election. Only about 5% of voters who support either of the two candidates say there is a chance they will change their mind (5% of Biden supporters, 4% of Trump voters).

Among each candidate’s strong supporters, nearly all say they are certain to support their preferred candidate in the presidential election (98% of Biden’s strong supporters and 99% of Trump’s).

However, while a much larger share of Biden supporters support him moderately compared with Trump supporters (43% vs. 23%), they are more certain in their choice than are those who say they support Trump only moderately.

Among Biden’s moderate supporters, 90% say they are certain to support him for president, and 10% say there is a chance they will change their mind. Among Trump’s moderate supporters, 17% say there is a chance they will change their mind about their preferred candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

Voters who say they lean toward either of the two major candidates (10% of Biden’s support overall, 11% of Trump’s support overall) were not asked about the certainty of their choice.

Many of the demographic divides that were evident in the 2016 presidential contest are just as wide today as they were four years ago – especially by race, education and gender. (See detailed tables for further information on voter preferences.)

While Biden enjoys more support among women, Black, Hispanic, and Asian American voters, Trump fares better among older and less-educated voters. These divisions were evident earlier this summer, as well as four years ago.

And while gaps in support among these groups are not new, many of the differences in strength of support are striking. For example, while a 54% majority of white voters favor Trump, 38% support him strongly. Fewer white voters support Biden (45%), including just 22% who back him strongly.

Black voters overwhelmingly support Biden (89% to 8%). And close to half of Black voters (45%) support Biden strongly, a larger share than among his supporters in most other demographic groups.

Trump draws support from 53% of those with a high school diploma or less, including 38% who say they strongly support him for reelection. In contrast, 68% of voters with a postgraduate degree say they support Biden for president, including 38% who say they strongly support him.

The educational divide is even wider among white voters. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of white voters with no college degree say they support Trump; 47% strongly support him. By contrast, 61% of white voters with a four-year college degree or more say they would vote for or lean toward Biden – including about a third who say they strongly support him.

Today, substantial majorities of registered voters who cast ballots for Trump or Clinton in 2016 are largely sticking to their same party’s candidate. Among those voters who were matched to a voter file and reported supporting Trump in 2016, 94% say they will vote for Trump again this November; about 5% say they will support Biden.

The pattern is largely the same among 2016 Clinton voters: 96% say they will cast a ballot for Biden this fall, while just 4% say they will support Trump.

Among those voters who reported casting a ballot for someone other than Trump or Clinton in 2016, including Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, more say they would support Biden over Trump (55% vs. 39%) if the election were held today. Relatively small shares report either candidate strongly (8% say they support Trump strongly vs. 13% who say they support Biden strongly).

Registered voters divided on which candidate will win

Overall, registered voters are divided over who they think will win the 2020 November election: While 50% of voters believe that Trump will win the presidential election, 48% predict a victory for Biden.

And although voters’ predictions for who will win the presidential election largely align with their candidate preference, voters who support Trump or lean toward voting for him are slightly more likely than Biden supporters to say that their candidate will win (90% vs. 82%).

Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, majorities of voters consistently expected a Hillary Clinton victory. In August of 2016, 55% said Clinton would win, compared with 42% who expected Trump to win.

Trump supporters are far more confident their candidate will win today than they were four years ago. Currently, 90% of Trump supporters expect him to win; at about the same point in the campaign four years ago, only 74% of Trump supporters said he would prevail over Clinton.

By contrast, roughly the same share of Biden supporters are confident of victory today (82%) as Clinton supporters four years ago (85%).

Today, voters who are more certain of their choice in candidate are more likely to expect that their candidate will win the 2020 election. Nearly all strong Trump supporters (97%) expect him to win, compared with 77% of his more moderate supporters. Similarly, among Biden supporters, those who support Biden strongly (93%) are more likely than those who support him moderately (76%) to expect him to win the November election.

But among voters who are more unsure of who they are voting for, those who lean toward voting for Trump (76%) are more likely than those who lean toward Biden (61%) to expect their candidate to win.

How Trump and Biden supporters would react to victory and defeat

When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters’ reactions to Trump’s possible reelection are more intense – both positively and negatively – than to a Biden victory.

About half of registered voters (51%) say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.

Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved (42%) than excited (9%). Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed (30%) than angry (17%).

More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative (57%) than positive (42%) emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection (33%) than if Biden is elected president (17%).

Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.

Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters (30%) are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters (16%) are of their own candidate.

By contrast, Biden supporters are more likely to express relief about the possibility of their candidate winning. About eight-in-ten Biden supporters (77%) say they would be relieved if Biden were elected in 2020, compared with 61% of Trump supporters.

When it comes to the prospect of the opposing candidate winning the November election, Biden supporters are far more likely than Trump supporters to express anger. While a majority (61%) of Biden supporters say they would be angry if Trump won reelection, 37% of Trump supporters say they would feel angry if Biden won the presidential election.

On the other hand, Trump supporters are more likely to express disappointment toward Biden’s potential election. About six-in-ten Trump supporters say they would be disappointed if Biden won the November election, compared with 37% of Biden supporters who express this view of Trump’s potential reelection.

Biden supporters have different reactions to possible defeat and victory today than supporters of Hillary Clinton did in September 2016. In reaction to their own candidate winning, Biden supporters in 2020 (16%) are less likely than Clinton supporters were in 2016 (25%) to express excitement over the prospect of their own candidate winning. Instead, a larger share of Biden supporters say they would feel relief in the event he wins: 77% say they would be relieved if Biden won the November election. In 2016, 68% of Clinton supporters said they would feel relief.

But the possibility of Trump’s reelection would elicit more anger from Biden supporters today than the possibility of Trump’s election did from Clinton supporters in 2016. A 61% majority of Biden supporters say they would be angry if Trump won reelection. In September 2016, 46% of Clinton supporters said they would be angry if Trump won.

Among Trump supporters, the outlook toward a possible Trump victory is little different than it was in 2016. As was the case then, far more Trump supporters say they would be relieved (61%) than excited (30%) if Trump wins. However, when asked about their potential reaction to Biden winning the presidential election in 2020, a smaller share (37%) say they would be angry than the share who said they would react in this way (46%) in 2016 when asked about a possible Clinton victory.

About half (49%) of registered voters say they are very or fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates, while a similar share (48%) say they are not too or not at all satisfied. Voter satisfaction with the candidates is higher than it was in 2016, when just 40% expressed satisfaction, but lower than it was for the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections.

About six-in-ten Republican voters (59%) say they are very or fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates, compared with 42% of Democratic voters. In 2016, there was no significant partisan gap in satisfaction with the candidates.

In the prior three elections in which an incumbent president ran for reelection, members of the incumbent’s party were more satisfied with the candidates the summer prior to the election. In 1996, satisfaction was 9 percentage points higher among Democratic voters than among GOP voters. In 2004, Republican voters were 11 points more likely than Democratic voters to express satisfaction, and the gap was similar in 2012 (Democratic satisfaction 12 points higher than GOP satisfaction). Today, satisfaction is 17 points higher among Republican voters than Democratic voters.

Few say neither Trump nor Biden would make a good president; even fewer say either would

Just 8% of registered voters agree with the statement “it is difficult to choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden because either one would make a good president,” while only about two-in-ten (21%) agree that the choice would be difficult “because neither one would make a good president.”

The share who say the choice is hard because either would make a good president is as low as it has been at any point since the question was first asked in 2000 (11% said this of the Trump-Clinton matchup in 2016). And the share who think the choice is difficult because neither one would make a good president is also at a historic low. Four years ago, 41% of voters said the choice was hard because neither Trump nor Clinton would make a good president – only about half as many say the same about the choice between Trump and Biden today.

Few in either party say it would be difficult to choose between the candidates because either one would make a good president (just 8% of Republican voters and 6% of Democratic voters).

Just 14% of GOP voters say it would be difficult to choose between the candidates because neither one would make a good president – 46% said this of the Trump-Clinton race in 2016. While a slightly larger share of Democratic than Republican voters today say the choice is hard because neither Biden nor Trump would make a good president, just 22% say this, down from the 33% of Democratic voters who said this about the choice between Clinton and Trump in 2016.

Share saying the two major party candidates differ on the issues has grown over time

An overwhelming majority of voters – 86% – say that Trump and Biden take different positions on the issues, with just 9% seeing their positions on the issues as similar. The share who see the presidential candidates’ positions as different is now 35 percentage points higher than it was two decades ago.

In their own words: Supporters of Trump and Biden give reasons for their voting decisions and concerns about their candidates

When asked to explain in their own words the main reasons why they support Joe Biden or Donald Trump, Biden supporters are far more likely than Trump supporters to volunteer that opposition to the other candidate is a main motivating factor.

A majority (56%) of registered voters who support Biden and those who lean toward supporting him say their main reason for supporting him is that he is not Trump. Just 19% of Trump supporters cite opposition to Biden as a central motivation.

Voters who cite negative reasons for their support of a candidate do not mince words when describing the opponent. A 37-year-old living in the South says the main reason they support Biden is “because having Trump as president for another four years will be a disaster for this country.”

A 44-year-old Southern Trump supporter uses similar language to explain their rationale for voting for Trump, saying simply, “Because Biden would be a disaster.”

Biden supporters’ relatively large emphasis on voting against Trump, and Trump supporters’ relatively large emphasis on other factors, represents a change from four years ago. In 2016, nearly identical proportions of Trump supporters (33%) and Clinton supporters (32%) said that opposition to the other candidate was a main factor in their likely vote choice. In 2020, supporters of both candidates are more likely to cite their attitudes about Trump, the incumbent, in explaining their decisions.

While more Biden than Trump supporters cite opposition to the other candidate as the main reason for their vote, partisanship is a bigger factor for Trump supporters: 16% of voters who support Trump say their main reason for backing Trump is to support Republicans or oppose Democrats; a smaller share of Biden supporters (7%) cite partisanship as the main reason for their vote.

About one-in-five Trump supporters (23%) say they are basing their support on Donald Trump’s leadership or performance, while a similar share (21%) cite Trump’s position on the issues. About one-in-ten (11%) point to Trump’s personality and willingness to speak his mind, compared with about 19% of Trump supporters who cited similar reasons in 2016. A 58-year-old Trump supporter in the South explains their choice this way: “Because he gets stuff done. He’s not perfect, but he’s honest and tries.”

While opposition to Trump is cited most often as the main reason for supporting Biden, 19% mention Biden’s leadership and 13% cite his performance or his personality. Some Biden supporters describe Biden’s attributes in relative terms: As a 41-year-old Northeastern Biden supporter writes, “I think he has stronger moral fortitude, is kinder, and will think more before he speaks than our current president.”

When asked what, if anything, concerns them about their preferred candidate, one-quarter of registered voters who support Trump express concerns about his temperament or personality. This includes 13% of Trump supporters who specifically worry that he speaks without thinking or is too hot-headed.

A relatively large share of Trump supporters (14%) also express concerns about their candidate’s use of Twitter. Some say that Trump spends too much time or focuses too much of his attention on Twitter, while others worry about the content he posts. One 47-year-old supporter in the West writes that they are concerned about: “His tweets. He doesn’t THINK before he tweets.” Several others describe his use of Twitter as “immature” or “childish.”

About one-in-ten Trump supporters (11%) express concerns about the president’s performance in office to date. A similar share (9%) are concerned about one or more of his issue positions, including 3% who specifically cite his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

About three-in-ten Biden supporters list Biden’s age or health as a major concern regarding their chosen candidate. While many simply say that his age concerns them, others are more specific. For example, one 73-year-old Biden supporter in the Northeast wishes that “he were younger so that I could feel confident in him in the remaining days of the campaign. I worry about him screwing up.” A Western 46-year-old writes: “Biden’s age concerns me but I am also concerned about Trump’s age. I am not sure either when one considers age and race can fully grasp what is happening in the country but Biden is more empathetic to the plight and needs of people of color.”

Despite several Biden supporters noting the candidates’ similar ages (Trump is currently 74 while Biden is 77), just 1% of Trump supporters name the incumbent’s age or health as a concern when discussing their own preferred candidate.

Voters who support Biden also express concerns about his issue positions (15%), his performance as a candidate (12%), his history in public life (11%) and the magnitude of the job he would face in office (10%). Included among those concerned about Biden’s history are 4% of Biden supporters who specifically note his behavior toward women, some of whom mention recent allegations of sexual misconduct.

Overall, Trump supporters are 5 percentage points more likely than Biden supporters to say that they have no concerns about their chosen candidate. However, important differences exist within Biden’s coalition. Among Biden supporters, Black voters are twice as likely to say they have no concerns about Biden (22%) than either whites (11%) or Hispanics (9%).

The 2020 presidential campaign is attracting a high level of interest from voters. Three measures of voter attitudes and engagement are among the highest seen for presidential elections over the last few decades.

Today, 83% of registered voters say that it “really matters who wins” the presidential election, higher than the share who said this at similar points in any prior presidential elections dating back to 2000. In 2016, about three-quarters (74%) said the outcome of the election really mattered, while smaller majorities in 2012 (63%), 2008 (63%) and 2004 (67%) also said it really mattered who won.

Three-quarters of voters say they have thought quite a lot about the election. The share of voters saying they have thought a lot about the election is slightly lower than the share who said this in 2016 (80%), though higher than for most other elections dating back to 1992.

A 56% majority say they are more interested in politics they were in 2016 – which was one of the highest interest elections in recent years (and when 60% said they were more interested in politics than they had been in previous elections).

Republican (86%) and Democratic (85%) registered voters are about equally likely to say this year’s election outcome really matters – and record shares in both parties say this. There are also no significant differences in the shares of Republican and Democratic voters who say they have thought quite a lot about the election (77% and 78%, respectively) or say that they are more interested in politics than they were in 2016 (57% and 59%, respectively).

Among Republican registered voters, 77% say they have thought “quite a lot” about the upcoming presidential election, down from 2016 when 85% said they had thought a lot about the election – higher than in previous elections. Democratic registered voters are as likely to say they have given the election a lot of thought as they were in 2016 (78% in both years).

A majority of Republicans (57%) say they are more interested in politics this year than they were in the last presidential election year. This is down from 63% in 2016 (a GOP high in recent elections), but is higher than in most other recent elections. Among Democrats, 59% say they are more interested in politics today than they were in 2016. The share of Democrats saying they are more interested than in the prior election is identical to the share who said this in 2016 and higher than in most recent elections – with the exception of 2008, when 72% of Democrats said they were more interested in politics than they had been in 2004.

Most say 2020 campaign not focused on important policy debates

About half of registered voters say the presidential campaign has been interesting (48%), with roughly as many characterizing it as dull (45%). Voters are finding the 2020 campaign far less interesting than they found the 2016 race – three-quarters (77%) said the 2016 campaign was interesting, higher than for any prior election dating back to 1992. Still, the share of voters saying the campaign is interesting is higher than in the last several elections involving an incumbent president.

About half of voters are say the campaign has been too negative (51%), while fewer (40%) say it has not been too negative. This is on par with evaluations of most recent elections – except 2016, when 68% of voters said the 2016 campaign was too negative.

A majority of voters (59%) say that this year’s presidential campaign is not focused on important policy debates; one-third say the campaign is focused on important debates. Voters are more likely to view the campaign this year as focused on important policy debates than they were in 2016 (33% vs. 27%)

While demographic differences on these measures are relatively modest, there are some age and educational differences.

Voters without a college degree are more likely than those with one to say that the presidential campaign has been interesting (52% vs. 41%).

Younger registered voters are more likely to view the presidential campaign as too negative. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters ages 18 to 29 (63%) say the campaign has been too negative; 49% of all other voters say this.

Younger voters are also more likely to say that the campaign has not been focused on major issues. Among voters under 50, 65% say the campaign has not been focused on important debates, while 54% of those ages 50 and older say the same.

Trump, Biden supporters differ over whether they prefer to vote in person or by mail in November

With less than three months before the general election and as state election administrators prepare to conduct elections in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak, American voters are divided in how they would prefer to cast their ballots: 40% say they prefer to vote in person on Election Day, 39% say they would prefer to vote by mail and 18% say they would like to vote in person prior to Election Day.

There is a wide gap between Trump voters and Biden voters in their preferences for how they would like to vote: Nearly six-in-ten Biden voters (58%) say they would prefer to vote by mail, while just 17% of Trump voters say this. A majority of Trump voters (60%) say they would prefer to vote on Election Day in person.

White voters are substantially more likely than other racial and ethnic groups to say they prefer to vote in person on Election Day (43% of white voters say this compared with 33% of Black voters, 28% of Hispanic voters and 21% of Asian voters). To a large extent, this reflects the differences in the partisan leaning of these groups – for instance, 20% of white Biden supporters express a preference for Election Day voting, little different than the 21% of Hispanic Biden supporters and lower than the share of Black Biden supporters (33%) who say this. By comparison, 63% of white Trump supporters say their preference would be to vote in person on Election Day.

Hispanic and Asian American voters are more likely than white and Black voters to say they prefer voting by mail, with nearly half (48%) of Hispanic and 62% of Asian American voters preferring this method compared with 37% of both white and Black voters.

Voters with higher levels of education are more likely to prefer voting by mail to other alternatives. About half of those with a college degree (51% among those with a postgraduate degree and 48% among those with a four-year degree) say they prefer to vote by mail, while 29% of voters with no college experience say this.

Black voters less likely than others to say voting in November will be ‘easy’

Overall, 50% of registered voters say that they expect voting in the November election will be at least somewhat easy, with 23% saying they think it will be very easy.

Trump supporters are much more likely than Biden backers to say that they expect voting in the November elections will be easy (64% of Trump voters say this, compared with 40% of Biden voters).

Voters’ assessments of how easy voting will be for them this year differ across demographic groups, with younger voters and Black and Hispanic voters less likely than older voters and white voters to say that voting will be easy.

Voters younger than 30 are less likely than older voters to say they expect voting will be easy: 34% say this, compared with 48% of voters ages 30 to 49 and over half (55%) of voters ages 50 and older.

Overall views of how difficult or easy it will be to vote in November vary only modestly by education, with those with a postgraduate education more likely than others to say they expect voting to be easy in November.

With the country in the midst of a recession, nearly eight-in-ten registered voters (79%) say the economy will be very important to them in making their decision about who to vote for in the 2020 presidential election – the top issue of 12 included in the survey.

The economy is consistently a top voting issue. In a survey asking a similar, though not identical, list of issues in June 2016, the economy also was the top voting issue.

In the current survey, 68% of voters say health care is very important to their vote, while 64% cite Supreme Court appointments.

As the country continues to grapple with the coronavirus outbreak, 62% of voters say the outbreak will be a very important factor in their decision about who to support in the fall.

About six-in-ten (59%) say violent crime will be very important to their 2020 decision, and 57% say this about foreign policy.

Immigration and racial and ethnic inequality rank toward the lower end of the list for voters (52% each call these issues very important to their vote).

Fewer than half say climate change (42%) or abortion (40%) will be very important factors in their decision (though majorities say these issues will be at least somewhat important to them).

Trump and Biden voters diverge over importance of COVID-19 to their vote this fall

There are stark differences in how registered voters who support Donald Trump and Joe Biden view the importance of these issues. In fact, of 12 issues included, the only ones that comparable shares of Biden supporters and Trump supporters view as very important are foreign policy and Supreme Court appointments.

For Trump supporters, the economy (88%) and violent crime (74%) are the most salient issues. Roughly six-in-ten Trump supporters cite immigration (61%), gun policy (60%) and foreign policy (57%) as very important to their vote.

By contrast, the largest shares of Biden supporters view health care (84%) and the coronavirus outbreak (82%) as very important. A sizable majority also rates racial and ethnic inequality as important to their vote (76%).

While there are substantial differences between Trump and Biden supporters on the importance of most issues, the widest gaps are on climate change (57 percentage points) and racial and ethnic inequality (52 points).

In addition, Biden supporters are more than twice as likely than Trump supporters to say the coronavirus outbreak (82% of Biden supporters, 39% of Trump supporters) and economic inequality (65% of Biden supporters, 28% of Trump supporters) as very important.

Larger shares of Trump than Biden supporters say violent crime (74% vs. 46%), immigration (61% vs. 46%) and gun policy (60% vs. 50%) are very important to their decision about who to vote for in 2020.

Republicans lead on the economy; Democrats have advantages on climate, health, racial issues

Among registered voters, the Republican Party holds a 9 percentage point edge over the Democrats on the issue of being better able to handle the economy (49% Republican Party, 40% Democratic Party). And as has been the case for many years, more voters say the GOP could do a better job than the Democratic Party on terrorism (46% vs. 37%).

By contrast, the Democratic Party holds wide advantages among voters on climate change (58% to 27% over the GOP), abortion and contraception (51% to 36%) and health care (51% t0 37%). In addition, the Democratic Party has 12-point leads on handling the public health impact of the coronavirus and issues involving race and ethnicity.

On other issues, including immigration, gun policy, the federal budget deficit and law enforcement and criminal justice, neither party has a significant edge among voters.

2016 validated voters: Measures of 2016 turnout and vote choice rely on panelists’ responses to questions about voter turnout and candidate preference on American Trends Panel surveys conducted between Nov. 29 – Dec. 12, 2016 and Nov. 7-16, 2018. Self-reported vote choice collected immediately after the election was used for panelists recruited prior to the 2016 election. For panelists recruited after the 2016 election (in the 2017 and 2018 panel recruitments detailed in the methodology statement), a retrospective vote choice measure was collected in 2018.¹ Panelists recruited in the 2019 recruitment (and those from the 2018 recruitment who were not eligible to vote in the 2016 elections) were excluded from this part of the analysis.

Panelists’ turnout in 2016 was verified by matching the panelists to commercial voter file databases, which collect official state voting records. Researchers attempted to match panelists who completed the 2016 survey to five commercial voter file databases (see this report for a detailed discussion of how this was accomplished); panelists recruited after 2016 were matched to two commercial voter file databases. Panelists who were verified as having voted in at least one of the commercial voter databases were considered to be validated voters.

2018 validated voters: To produce estimates of validated 2018 voters, researchers attempted to match responses about voter turnout from an ATP survey conducted just after the election Nov. 7-16, 2018 to two commercial voter file databases. Panelists who were verified as having voted in at least one of the commercial voter file databases were considered to be validated voters. Candidate choice for 2018 verified voters was measured in this post-election survey.

© Pew Research Center, 2020

This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:

Research team Carroll Doherty, Director, Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Political Research Andrew Daniller, Research Associate Bradley Jones, Research Associate Hannah Hartig, Research Associate Amina Dunn, Research Analyst Hannah Gilberstadt, Research Assistant Ted Van Green, Research Assistant Vianney Gomez, Research Assistant

Communications and editorial Nida Asheer, Communications Manager Calvin Jordan, Communications Associate David Kent, Senior Copy Editor

Graphic design and web publishing Peter Bell, Design Director Alissa Scheller, Information Graphics Designer Sara Atske, Associate Digital Producer 

Methodology Andrew Mercer, Senior Research Methodologist Nick Bertoni, Senior Panel Manager Arnold Lau, Research Analyst

Others at Pew Research Center also gave valuable assistance on this project, including Associate Director Alec Tyson, Research Analyst Katherine Schaeffer and Research Assistant Justin Nortey.

The American Trends Panel survey methodology

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.

Data in this report is drawn from the panel wave conducted July 27 to Aug. 2, 2020. A total of 11,001 panelists responded out of 14,407 who were sampled, for a response rate of 76%. This does not include 10 panelists who were removed from the data due to extremely high rates of refusal or straightlining. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 4.2%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is 1.3%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 11,001 respondents is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

A portion of this report comes from data from the set of panelists who responded to both this wave and to a previous wave conducted Nov. 7 to 16, 2018. A total of 7,651 panelists responded to both waves. The margin of sampling error for these 7,651 panelists is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.

The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of which 9,942 agreed to participate.

In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a random, address-based sample (ABS) of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. In each household, the adult with the next birthday was asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel. For a random half-sample of invitations, households without internet access were instructed to return a postcard. These households were contacted by telephone and sent a tablet if they agreed to participate. A total of 9,396 were invited to join the panel, and 8,778 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. The same recruitment procedure was carried out on August 19, 2019, from which a total of 5,900 were invited to join the panel and 4,720 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. Of the 23,440 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 15,406 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted.

The U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.² The American Trends Panel never uses breakout routers or chains that direct respondents to additional surveys.

Weighting

The ATP data was weighted in a multistep process that begins by calibrating the entire panel so that it aligns with the population benchmarks identified in the accompanying table to create a full-panel weight. For ATP waves in which only a subsample of panelists are invited to participate, a wave-specific base weight is created by adjusting the full-panel weights for subsampled panelists to account for any differential probabilities of selection for the particular panel wave. For waves in which all active panelists are invited to participate, the wave-specific base weight is identical to the full-panel weight. The next step in the weighting uses an iterative technique that aligns the sample to population benchmarks on the dimensions listed in the accompanying table.

Analyses of the 7,651 panelists who responded to both this wave and the Nov. 2018 wave incorporate a weight that additionally aligns the smaller sample to the weighted proportion of all 11,001 respondents to this wave who supported Trump, Biden, neither, or were not registered voters.

Sampling errors and test of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

Survey conducted July 23-Aug. 4, 2020, via telephone

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted July 23-Aug. 4, 2020, among a national sample of 1,750 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (350 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,400 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 955 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers under the direction of Abt Associates. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Dynata. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. The weighting procedure corrected for the different sampling rates. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://alpha.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/.

The combined landline and cellphone sample is weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey one-year estimates and population density to parameters from the decennial census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status (landline only, cell phone only, or both landline and cell phone), based on extrapolations from the 2019 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. The margins of error reported and statistical tests of significance are adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, a measure of how much efficiency is lost from the weighting procedures.

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

© Pew Research Center, 2020

CORRECTION (September 2020): A previous version of this methodology statement contained an incorrect description of the base weighting for this survey. None of the study findings or conclusions are affected.