How we did this

Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans are continuing to respond to the coronavirus outbreak. For this analysis, we surveyed 11,537 U.S. adults in March 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATP’s methodology.

Here are the questions used for the report, along with responses, and its methodology.

Americans are increasingly alarmed by the rapid spread of the new coronavirus, with sharply growing majorities saying the outbreak poses a major threat to the health of the U.S. population and the nation’s economy. Many report that their own lives are already being negatively affected: 33% say they or someone in their household has lost their job or suffered a pay cut or reduction in work hours because of the coronavirus.

There is broad public agreement that the nation is confronting a crisis. Two-thirds of Americans – including majorities in all major demographic and partisan groups – say COVID-19 is a “significant crisis.”

And their outlook for the national economy is bleak. Nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) say the coronavirus outbreak will cause a recession or depression in the U.S., including nearly one-in-five (17%) who anticipate a depression.

Less than two weeks ago, 47% said the coronavirus outbreak was a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. Today, 66% say it is major threat to the health of Americans. An even larger majority – 88% – says COVID-19 poses a major threat to the U.S. economy, up from 70% in mid-March.

Americans continue to be less anxious about the personal impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Still, there have been significant increases in the shares saying the outbreak is a major threat to their own health (36% currently) and personal finances (49%).

While Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to say that the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to public health and the economy, concerns have risen among members of both parties. They also have increased in states experiencing a large number of coronavirus cases and those that so far have been less seriously affected.

The new national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted March 19-24 among 11,537 U.S. adults using the Center’s American Trends Panel, finds that despite the partisan differences in views on several aspects of the outbreak, there also are important areas of agreement. Notably, majorities in both parties say it is necessary to impose strict limitations on commerce, travel and entertainment in order to address the outbreak.

About seven-in-ten adults (71%) say that to address the coronavirus, it is necessary to require most businesses other than grocery stores or pharmacies to close. A larger share of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (81%) than Republicans and GOP leaners (61%) view this requirement as necessary.

An even larger majority (85%) thinks it is necessary to limit restaurants to carry-out only. And with a growing number of states announcing delays of their upcoming primary elections, 70% say this is a necessary step to take because of the coronavirus.

The public is largely positive about the way that U.S. public health officials, such as those with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), are responding to the outbreak. Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) say these officials are doing an excellent or good job; majorities of Republicans (84%) and Democrats (74%) express positive views of the response by public health officials.

State and local elected officials also receive high marks – again, among members of both parties – for their response to the outbreak. And 63% of adults say that ordinary people in their community are doing an excellent or good job responding to the coronavirus.

Opinions about how President Donald Trump is handling the crisis are less positive, and more divided by partisanship. Nearly half of adults (48%) say Trump is doing an excellent or good job responding to the outbreak; an overwhelming majority of Republicans (83%) express positive views, compared with just 18% of Democrats.

However, Trump’s overall job rating is higher than it has been since the first few months of his presidency. Currently, 45% approve of the way he is handling his job as president, while 52% disapprove. In January, 40% approved of Trump’s job performance.

Since then, Trump’s job approval has increased significantly among a number of groups, including members of both parties, women (from 37% in January to 44% today), black adults (from 8% to 18%) and Hispanic adults (from 27% to 37%).

The new survey also finds that the public is generally confident that the nation’s hospitals and medical centers will be able to care for people afflicted with COVID-19 (see “Most Americans are confident hospitals can handle the needs of the seriously ill during COVID-19 outbreak”). All of the data in this report can be explored further by using the Election News Pathways data tool.

Here are some other major findings from the new survey:

Divided views of how people across the country are reacting to COVID-19. Only about quarter of Americans (28%) say ordinary people across the country are reacting about right to the coronavirus outbreak; 31% say ordinary people are overreacting to the outbreak, while 40% say they are not taking it seriously enough. The public also has mixed views about how ordinary people in their community are reacting. But 86% say people in their household are reacting about right to the coronavirus outbreak.

News media’s response to coronavirus outbreak. In the new survey, 54% say the news media have done an excellent or good job responding to coronavirus outbreak. Yet, as in an earlier survey, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to rate the media’s performance responding to the outbreak positively.

CORRECTION (April 2, 2020): In the chart, “Large majorities say that restrictions on travel, closures of businesses have been necessary responses,” the total share of those who say closing K-12 schools is a necessary step has been updated from 89% to 90%. The update did not affect the report’s substantive findings.

Nearly nine-in-ten Americans (88%) now say the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat to the U.S. economy and 66% say it’s a major threat to the health of the U.S. population as a whole. Both shares are nearly 20 percentage points higher than they were earlier this month, in a survey fielded March 10-16.

The public continues to see the coronavirus outbreak as presenting more serious threats to the nation than to them personally.

About half (49%) say the virus is a major threat to their own personal finances; another 40% say it is a minor threat. When it comes to personal health, more say the coronavirus presents a minor (52%) than major (36%) threat.

Compared with national concerns, fewer say the coronavirus is a major threat to their own finances and health, but these shares also are up significantly from a few weeks ago. The public has become 15 points more likely to say the virus is a major threat to their finances, and they are 9 points more likely to say it’s a major threat to their own health.

Democrats and Democratic leaners remain more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to say the coronavirus outbreak is a major threat across all four areas of concern tested in the survey. For instance, 78% of Democrats say the coronavirus is a major threat to the health of the U.S. public, compared with 52% of Republicans. However, over the past few weeks, both groups have become significantly more likely to say the virus presents major threats to all four items in the survey.

Reflecting widespread concerns about the threats posed by the coronavirus, 67% describe the outbreak as a significant crisis; far fewer describe it as a serious problem, but not a crisis (28%), and just 4% say it is a minor problem or not a problem at all.

A larger share of Democrats (75%) than Republicans (58%) view the outbreak as a significant crisis for the country.

Older people (ages 65 and older), those with at least a college education, those following news about the outbreak very closely and people in urban areas are especially likely to describe the coronavirus outbreak in the most serious terms and call it a significant crisis.

The national – and personal – economic impacts of the coronavirus

Asked to consider the economic impact of the coronavirus on the U.S., nearly half (48%) say it will cause a recession, while another 17% think it will cause a depression. About a third (34%) expect a less severe economic impact and say the coronavirus will result in an economic slowdown, but not a recession or depression.

Republicans and Republican leaners are less likely to expect a severe economic impact than Democrats and Democratic leaners, though majorities of both groups expect the U.S. to suffer a recession or a depression.

More than four-in-ten Republicans (44%) say the coronavirus outbreak will lead to a recession, while another 12% say it will result in a depression. Among Democrats 52% say they expect a recession, while 22% say the outbreak will lead to a depression.

Those with higher levels of education are more likely than those with lower levels to expect severe national economic impacts. For instance, about eight-in-ten with a postgraduate degree (81%) expect either a recession (61%) or depression (20%) in the U.S. Among those with no college experience, 54% expect either a recession (39%) or depression (15%).

Americans have already begun to experience negative job impacts from the coronavirus outbreak. Overall, 20% say they, or someone in their household, have been laid off or lost a job because of the coronavirus; 27% say a member of their household has experienced a pay cut or a reduction in work hours.

Taken together, 33% say they, or someone in their household, have lost a job or taken a pay cut (or both) because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Hispanics, younger people and lower-income people have been hit especially hard by coronavirus job impacts.

Nearly half of Hispanics (49%) say their household has had someone lose their job or take a pay cut because of the COVID-19 outbreak. Smaller shares of black (36%) and white (29%) people say the same.

Among the youngest adults, ages 18 to 29, 46% say they or someone in their household has lost a job or had their pay cut because of the coronavirus outbreak. Smaller shares of those ages 30 to 49 (36%), 50 to 64 (32%) and 65 and older (19%) say their household has faced either or both of these setbacks.

Lower-income Americans are almost twice as likely as upper-income Americans to say they or someone in their household has taken a pay cut or lost a job because of the coronavirus (43% vs. 22%). About a third (31%) of middle-income people say this has happened to them or someone in their household. (See appendix for more details on how income tiers are defined.)

Views on the personal health threat posed by the coronavirus

Most Americans view the coronavirus as a threat to their own personal health, though more view it as a minor (52%) than major (36%) threat; just 11% say it is not a threat.

Older adults and black and Hispanic people are especially likely to say the coronavirus is a major threat to their own personal health.

Nearly half of black people (49%) and Hispanics (48%) say the coronavirus is a major threat to their own health. Among white people, 30% say this.

Adults ages 50 and older see a greater personal health threat from the coronavirus than those under age 50. Nearly half (47%) of those 65 and older and 40% of those ages 50 to 64 see the virus as a major threat to their own health; smaller shares of those ages 30 to 49 (31%) and 18 to 29 (27%) say the same.

Most Americans say several key actors in the country’s response to the coronavirus outbreak – especially public health officials and those serving in state and local elected offices – are doing a good or excellent job. Nearly eight in ten U.S. adults (79%) say public health officials (such as those at the CDC) have done an excellent or good job in their response to the outbreak, including 30% who say their response has been excellent. Clear majorities of Americans also say their state elected officials (70%), local elected officials (69%) and ordinary people in their local community (63%) are doing a good or excellent job responding to COVID-19.

Just over half of Americans (54%) rate the news media’s response to the outbreak positively, while 46% rate it negatively.

The public is about evenly split in their views of how Donald Trump is responding to the outbreak, with 48% saying he has done a good or excellent job and 51% saying his response has been only fair or poor.

Republicans and Democrats alike give positive assessments of public health officials’ response to the coronavirus outbreak: 84% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rate their response as excellent or good, while 74% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say the same.

In contrast, partisans offer starkly different ratings of the job Trump has done. About eight-in-ten (83%) Republicans say Trump has done a good or excellent job responding to the outbreak, including 47% who say he has done an excellent job. But just 18% of Democrats rate Trump’s performance positively (81% of Democrats say he has done an only fair or poor job, including 56% who give him a poor rating).

There’s also a wide partisan gap in perceptions of how the news media have done responding to the coronavirus outbreak. Most Democrats (68%) say they have done an excellent or good job. By contrast, just 37% of Republicans rate their performance positively.

Partisan views about other key actors in the country’s response to coronavirus are more closely aligned.

About two-thirds of Republicans (68%) and six-in-ten Democrats (60%) say ordinary people in their community are doing an excellent or good job in response to the coronavirus outbreak, and 73% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats rate the performance of their local elected officials positively.

Overall, roughly seven-in-ten Republicans (72%) and Democrats (69%) give positive ratings to their state elected officials. Views of state officials’ handling of the outbreak are most positive among partisans living in states controlled by members of their own party: 79% of Republicans with GOP control of statehouses and governorships and 76% of Democrats in Democratic-controlled states rate their state elected officials’ performance positively. Still, majorities of those living in states controlled by the other party also offer positive evaluations of their state government’s response (59% of Republicans in Democratic-controlled states, 60% of Democrats in GOP-controlled states)

Trump’s approval rating rises

Americans’ views of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president have improved since January; 45% now approve of the president’s job performance while 52% disapprove.

The share approving of Trump is up 5 percentage points since January and is at the highest level recorded in a Pew Research Center survey since March 2017, when 44% of Americans said they approved of the president’s job performance.

Trump’s approval rating has improved among both Republicans and Democrats. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 85% now approve of Trump’s job performance, compared with 80% in January. Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, the share approving increased from 7% to 12% over the same period.

For the most part, broad demographic differences in views of Trump’s job performance are unchanged. Trump continues to be viewed much more positively by older people, those without a bachelor’s degree and white Americans than among younger people, those with a college degree or more education and among black and Hispanic Americans.

While men remain somewhat more likely than women to approve of Trump, the gender gap has narrowed. Men’s views of Trump’s performance are only slightly more positive than in January (48% today, 44% then), while Trump’s approval rating among women has improved by 6 percentage points since then (43% today, 37% in January).

While majorities of black and Hispanic adults continue to disapprove of Trump’s performance, his standing with these groups is more positive than it was in January. In January, 8% of black Americans approved of Trump’s job performance, but today 18% say this (78% disapprove, including 58% who say they disapprove strongly). Among Hispanics, 37% now say they approve of Trump’s job performance, up from 27% in January

Majorities say their own household is reacting about right to COVID-19

The public is confident that members of their own household are responding appropriately to the coronavirus outbreak, but they are more critical of others in their community and people around the county.

Overall, 86% say the people in their household are reacting about right to the outbreak. Fewer than one-in-ten say that people in their own household are either overreacting (6%) or underreacting (8%) to the situation.

However, fewer than half (46%) say that ordinary people in their community are reacting about right to the outbreak. About as many say members of their community aren’t taking the outbreak seriously enough as say they’re overreacting (27% vs. 26%).

The public is even more critical of ordinary people around the country: Just 28% say they are reacting about right. Four-in-ten say people around the country aren’t taking the coronavirus outbreak seriously enough, compared with 31% who think they are overreacting.

As school systems across the country have announced closures in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus, large shares of adults say that their local school systems are reacting appropriately to the outbreak. Most Americans (86%) say that their local school system’s reaction to the coronavirus outbreak has been about right. Relatively few say their school systems are overreacting to the outbreak (10%) or not taking it seriously enough (4%).

Local and state governments also receive high marks in this regard. More than seven-in-ten say that their local government (74%) and their state government (72%) are each reacting about right to the coronavirus outbreak.

Republicans and Democrats offer somewhat different critiques of how institutions and people in the country are responding to the coronavirus outbreak. Among those who don’t think the response has been appropriate, Democrats tend to be more likely to say actors aren’t taking the outbreak seriously enough, while Republicans are more inclined to say they are overreacting.

Similar shares of Republicans and Republican leaners (47%) and Democrats and Democratic leaners (46%) say the people in their community are reacting about right to the coronavirus outbreak. Of those who do not say this, Republicans are more likely to say those in their community are overreacting than underreacting (30% vs. 22%). Among Democrats, more say their community members are not taking the outbreak seriously enough (32%) than overreacting (21%).

This pattern is even more pronounced in how partisans assess the reactions of ordinary people across the country. About half of Democrats (48%) say that people across the country are underreacting to the outbreak, compared with 27% who say they’re reacting about right and 25% who say they are overreacting. By contrast, a plurality of Republicans (39%) say people around the country are overreacting to the outbreak; somewhat fewer say they are either responding about right (30%) or not taking it seriously enough (31%).

Republicans in states with a higher number of confirmed COVID-19 cases are less likely than Republicans in states with fewer cases to say people across the country are overreacting to the outbreak (33% vs. 42%). Still, Republicans living in the hardest-hit states remain more likely than even Democrats in the least hard-hit states to say the public is overreacting to the outbreak.

Across both parties, those who are paying the most attention to news about the outbreak are the least likely to say that people and institutions are overreacting to the coronavirus outbreak.

Republicans and Democrats back measures aimed at ‘flattening the curve’

In thinking about specific steps that have been announced to address the coronavirus outbreak, majorities of Republicans and Democrats view a range of measures as necessary to stem the spread of the virus.

For instance, overwhelming majorities of both Republicans (96%) and Democrats (94%) say restricting international travel to the U.S. is necessary.

Most also say it is necessary to cancel major sports and entertainment events, close K-12 schools, avoid gathering in large groups and limit restaurants to carry-out only. In all four cases, somewhat larger majorities of Democrats than Republicans view each action as necessary.

There also is majority support for requiring most businesses other than grocery stores and pharmacies to close and for postponing upcoming state primary elections. However, among both Republicans and Democrats there is slightly lower support for these two measures than for other steps to confront the outbreak

The American Trends Panel survey methodology

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.

Data in this report is drawn from the panel wave conducted March 19 to March 24, 2020. A total of 11,537 panelists responded out of 15,433 who were sampled, for a response rate of 75%. This does not include five panelists who were removed from the data due to extremely high rates of refusal or straightlining. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 4.1%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged on to the survey and completed at least one item is 2%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 11,537 respondents is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of which 9,942 agreed to participate.

In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a random, address-based sample (ABS) of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. In each household, the adult with the next birthday was asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel. For a random half-sample of invitations, households without internet access were instructed to return a postcard. These households were contacted by telephone and sent a tablet if they agreed to participate. A total of 9,396 were invited to join the panel, and 8,778 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. The same recruitment procedure was carried out on August 19, 2019, from which a total of 5,900 were invited to join the panel and 4,720 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. Of the 23,440 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 15,433 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted.

The U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.¹

Weighting

The ATP data was weighted in a multistep process that begins with a base weight incorporating the respondents’ original selection probability. The next step in the weighting uses an iterative technique that aligns the sample to population benchmarks on the dimensions listed in the accompanying table.

Sampling errors and test of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

© Pew Research Center, 2020

Categorization of COVID-19 state health impact in this report

This report uses a measure of state-level impact of COVID-19. States and the District of Columbia are categorized as having experienced a high, medium or low impact based on a combination of the total number and the per-capita number of people who have tested positive for the novel coronavirus (as of March 22).

States were classified as “high” if they had either 1,000 or more total cases or they had more than 100 cases per million residents as of March 22. “Low” states had both fewer than 60 cases per million residents and less than 300 cases overall. The remaining states were classified as “medium” impact.

Data for positive cases of COVID-19 by state were taken from The COVID Tracking Project (downloaded on March 23).

Defining income tiers

To create upper-, middle- and lower-income tiers, respondents’ 2018 family incomes were adjusted for differences in purchasing power by geographic region and for household size. “Middle-income” adults live in families with annual incomes that are two-thirds to double the median family income in our sample (after incomes have been adjusted for the local cost of living and for household size). The middle-income range for this analysis is about $40,100 to $120,400 annually for a three-person household. Lower-income families have incomes less than roughly $40,100, and upper-income families have incomes greater than roughly $120,400.

Based on these adjustments, among respondents who provided their income, 33% are lower income, 45% are middle income and 22% fall into the upper-income tier.

For more information about how the income tiers were determined, please see here.