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This report analyzes the views of registered voters in the United States towards the upcoming presidential election. For our analysis, we surveyed 12,638 U.S. adults, including 10,491 registered voters (5,861 of whom are Democratic and Democratic leaners) in January 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Some of the analyses in the report also draw from prior surveys that members completed. For more details, see the methodology for this report. And read more about Pew Research Center’s ATP here.

Ahead of the first contests in the 2020 election, Democratic voters are highly engaged with the race for their party’s nomination, express positive views of the Democratic field and are united in opposition to Donald Trump.

Yet many Democrats are uncertain if their party’s still-to-be-determined nominee can defeat Trump in the general election. Fewer than half (44%) expect victory for their party’s candidate this fall, while 34% decline to express an opinion and 22% think Trump will win. Republican voters, by contrast, are highly confident that Trump will win reelection (80% say he will probably or definitely win).

The national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 6 to 19 among 10,491 registered voters, including 5,861 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, finds that Democrats’ preferences for the nominee are deeply divided along ideological and demographic lines. (Also new today – “Democratic voters generally satisfied with the primary process“).

As many national and early primary state surveys have found, Democrats’ preferences for the nomination are divided. Asked an open-ended question about their first choice for the nomination, 26% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters favor Biden, 21% Sanders, 16% Warren, 7% Buttigieg and 5% Bloomberg.

While Biden has an advantage over his rivals among conservative and moderate Democrats, who constitute about half of all Democratic voters, there is no clear leader among Democrats who describe their views as liberal, or among those who are very liberal. And as was the case in the primary campaign of 2016, Democrats are again divided by race and age: Biden leads among black Democrats, while white Democrats are closely divided. Sanders draws broad support among young Democrats, as he did four years ago, while Biden leads among older Democrats. (See detailed tables for more information)

The survey finds that while Democrats are divided over who should be the party’s nominee, they share similar attitudes on a wide range of political values and on many specific issues. Yet there also are differences among supporters of the Democratic candidates in attitudes about foreign policy, economic inequality and whether to seek compromise with Republicans.

In some cases, these differences are a matter of degree rather than kind. For example, most Democratic voters, regardless of which candidate they prefer, support making tuition free at all public universities and building a single government healthcare program known as “Medicare for all,” which would replace private insurance. Yet only among Warren and Sanders supporters do majorities strongly support these ideas.

However, there are some clear-cut disagreements among Democrats, including whether it is more important for a Democratic candidate to “find common ground” with Republicans or to push hard for policies that Democrats want, even if this makes it harder to get some things done.

Overall, 63% of Democratic voters – including substantial shares of those who support Buttigieg (82%), Bloomberg (79%) and Biden (72%) for the nomination – say it is more important for a Democratic candidate to seek common ground with Republicans, even if it means giving up some things Democrats want.

Sanders and Warren supporters are much less supportive of finding common ground with Republicans. Roughly half of the Democrats who favor either candidate (54% of Sanders supporters, 46% of Warren supporters) say it is more important for a Democratic presidential candidate to push hard for policies Democrats want, even if this makes it harder to get things done.

Ideological divide in the Democratic contest

The share of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who describe their political views as liberal has increased markedly since 2000, though growth has slowed in recent years. Overall, about half of Democratic voters (47%) identify as liberal, including 15% who say they are very liberal.

Liberal Democrats (who constitute about a third of all Democratic voters) have distinctly different preferences for the party’s presidential nomination when compared with those who are very liberal. Nearly identical shares of liberal Democrats name Biden (25%), Warren (23%) and Sanders (22%) as their first choice for the nomination.

Among very liberal Democratic voters, Sanders (38%) and Warren (30%) outpace the other candidates. Biden receives only about half as much support from very liberal Democrats (12%) as he does from liberals (25%).

The preferences of conservative and moderate Democrats are less divided. Biden holds a substantial advantage: 30% of moderate and conservative Democrats favor Biden, while 15% back Sanders and smaller shares favor other candidates.

An early look at the general election

With the general election still more than nine months away, a large majority of registered voters (75%) say they are giving a lot or a little thought to the candidates running for president, while about as many (78%) say they are looking forward to the election in the fall.

Asked to look ahead to how they might vote in November, more voters say they will definitely or probably vote for the Democratic candidate (48%) than will definitely or probably vote for Trump (38%), while 13% express no preference.

Currently, Democrats are more definite about their general election preferences than are Republicans: 73% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say they will definitely vote for the party’s nominee, while 59% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they will definitely vote for Trump. The survey was conducted before Trump’s Senate impeachment trial. (See this report for views of the Senate trial and Donald Trump.)

Yet Republicans are far more confident of victory in November. Nearly four-in-ten Republican voters (38%) think Trump will definitely win reelection, while another 41% say he will probably win. Among Democratic voters, just 11% say the Democratic candidate will definitely win, while 32% see a Democratic victory as probable. Democratic voters are far more likely than Republicans to decline to express an opinion about the outcome (34% vs. 15%).

The expectation that Trump is likely to win reelection is consistent with past elections involving incumbents, particularly before the other party has chosen its nominee. In 2012, for example, more voters consistently predicted victory for Barack Obama than Mitt Romney. And at similar points in the 1992 and 2004 cycles, wide majorities predicted the incumbents would win against the still-to-be-named Democratic candidate.

When voters are asked to predict their reactions if Trump wins reelection, 57% express a negative emotion and say they would be either disappointed (32%) or angry (25%); fewer say they’d experience either relief (24%) or excitement (18%).

Most liberal Democratic voters express a strongly negative reaction to a possible Trump victory: 62% of liberal Democrats say they would be angry if Trump were reelected, compared with 34% of conservative and moderate Democrats.

Among Republican voters, conservatives are more likely than moderates and liberals to have strongly positive reactions to a Trump victory. While 44% of conservative Republicans say they would be excited by Trump winning reelection, just 22% of moderate and liberal Republicans say the same.

Democrats differ on whether illegal immigration is a problem – and if other countries are better than the U.S.

On topics ranging from immigration and foreign policy to aid to the poor and economic inequality, Democratic voters generally agree on broad principles. And in virtually every area, the differences among supporters of the Democratic candidates are far narrower than the differences between Republican and Democratic voters. Still there are sharp disagreements among Democrats on several policy goals – such as the importance of the U.S. maintaining its role as the world’s lone military superpower – and specific policies.

America’s place in the world. Large majorities of supporters of leading Democratic candidates say the U.S. should take allies’ interests into account, even if it means making compromises with them, when conducting foreign policy. However, 65% of Warren supporters – and nearly as many Democrats who support Sanders (59%) and Buttigieg (56%) – say it would be acceptable if another country became as militarily powerful as the U.S. Only 40% of Biden and Bloomberg supporters say this. In addition, when asked about America’s global status, 51% of Sanders supporters and 43% of Warren supporters say there are other countries that are better than the U.S.; just 17% of Biden and Buttigieg backers say the same. Most Biden and Buttigieg supporters say either that the U.S. is among the leading group of nations or that it “stands above” all other countries.

Immigration. Democratic voters overwhelmingly say that the growing number of newcomers to the U.S. does more to strengthen U.S. society than threaten traditional American customs and values. But the candidates’ supporters differ on whether illegal immigration is a problem for the U.S. Majorities of Bloomberg (61%) and Biden supporters (59%) say illegal immigration is a very big or moderately big problem for the country, compared with fewer than half of Buttigieg (41%), and Warren and Sanders supporters (36% each). As with nearly all issues, these differences pale in comparison to the overall partisan gap in these views; 94% of Republican voters view illegal immigration as a problem, including 74% who say it’s a very big problem.

Social safety net. While Democrats generally favor more assistance to the needy, support for increased aid to the poor is higher among Warren and Sanders supporters (76%, 74%, respectively) than among Democrats who back Biden (56%), Buttigieg (48%) or Bloomberg (46%). Few Democrats, regardless of whom they support, favor less aid to the poor; rather, Biden, Buttigieg and Bloomberg supporters are more likely than Sanders and Warren supporters to say the government currently provides about the right amount of aid.

Economic inequality. Majorities of the supporters of leading Democratic candidates view economic inequality as a very big national problem; even larger shares say that business corporations in the U.S. have too much power. Yet Democrats disagree sharply about the impact of billionaires on the country. A majority of Sanders’ supporters (55%) and 49% of Warren supporters say the fact that there are some people with personal fortunes of a billion dollars or more is a bad thing. By contrast, the predominant view among Bloomberg supporters (69%), as well as Biden (67%) and Buttigieg supporters (61%), is that this is neither good nor bad.

Other major findings

Democrats are positive about their presidential field, though less so than in 2008. Overall, 64% of Democratic voters have an excellent or good impression of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination. That is much higher than at similar points during the 1988, 1992 and 2004 presidential campaigns. In January 2008, however, 78% had a positive view of the presidential candidates as a group.

A majority of Democrats still say they find ‘several’ candidates exciting. As the Democratic caucuses and primaries get underway, only 43% of Democratic voters who express a preference for the nominee say they are only enthusiastic about their first choice; 54% say there are several candidates they feel excited about. These views have changed only modestly since August, when 35% were only enthusiastic about their first choice.

A majority of Democrats who support Bloomberg for the nomination (60%) say they are only enthusiastic about their first choice. Half of Sanders supporters and 45% of Biden supporters say they are only enthused about their top choice, as do 39% of Buttigieg supporters and 31% of those who back Warren.

Ahead of the first caucuses and primaries of 2020, Joe Biden enjoys a narrow lead as Democrats’ top choice for president. In an open-ended question, 26% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters volunteer Biden as their top choice for the nomination. Slightly fewer say Bernie Sanders is their first choice (21%), while 16% say they would like Elizabeth Warren to be the nominee. Pete Buttigieg (7%), Michael Bloomberg (5%), Andrew Yang (3%) and Amy Klobuchar (2%) receive support from smaller shares of Democratic voters.

There continue to be notable demographic differences among Democrats in their primary preferences, particularly by age, education, and race and ethnicity. However, there are no significant gender differences in the preferences of Democratic voters.

Sanders is the clear first choice among Democratic voters ages 18 to 29: 40% say he is their first choice for the nomination, compared with 17% who support Warren and just 9% who name Biden. By contrast, a plurality of Democratic voters ages 50 and older name Biden as their first choice for the nomination.

In addition to support among older Democrats, Biden continues to receive strong support from black Democrats. Overall, 36% of black Democrats name Biden as their first choice; far fewer name Sanders (13%) or Warren (9%). The preferences of Latino Democrats are divided: 30% favor Sanders, while 22% back Biden and 11% support Warren.

Among non-Hispanic white voters, there are only modest differences between the shares who support Biden (24%), Sanders (21%) and Warren (19%) for the nomination.

The age differences in candidate support are evident among whites, blacks and Hispanics. For example, while Biden draws the support of just 12% of non-Hispanic white Democrats under the age of 50, a third of whites ages 50 and older support him. Similarly, Biden’s support is greater among blacks and Hispanics ages 50 and older than among those under 50. (See detailed tables for a more granular examination of Democrats’ preferences, including among smaller demographic subgroups).

Warren runs relatively well among Democratic voters who have graduated from college, particularly those with a postgraduate degree. Among postgraduates, 28% say Warren is their first choice for the Democratic nomination; about as many name Biden (25%), while 13% name Sanders and 11% name Buttigieg. Among those with a four-year college degree (but no postgraduate degree), Sanders (23%), Biden (22%) and Warren (20%) all receive similar levels of support. Biden runs better than other Democratic candidates among Democratic voters with no college experience.

Biden receives support for the nomination from a plurality of all Protestants and Catholics. Jewish Democrats also are more likely to name Biden as their first choice for the nomination (31%) than other candidates, including Warren (20%) and Sanders (11%). Among religiously unaffiliated Democratic voters, 28% say Sanders is their first choice for the nomination compared with smaller shares who name Warren (21%) or Biden (17%).

Demographic profiles of Democratic candidates’ supporters

Demographic differences in candidate preferences create distinct coalitions of supporters for the 2020 Democratic candidates. For instance, 74% of Warren supporters and 61% of Sanders supporters describe their political views as liberal, compared with just 37% of Biden supporters.

About a third of Sanders supporters are under the age of 30, compared with 18% of Warren supporters and just 6% of Biden supporters.

Majorities of Warren and Buttigieg supporters (61% each) have four-year college degrees. Fewer than half of Biden (37%) and Sanders (36%) supporters are college graduates.

Overall, 28% of Biden’s supporters are black Democrats compared with 13% of Sanders supporters, 12% of Warren’s supporters and just 1% of Buttigieg’s supporters.

When asked about their second choice for the nomination, 21% of Biden supporters name Sanders while 15% name Warren. However, a relatively large share of Democratic voters (36%) who support Biden do not volunteer a second choice.

More Sanders supporters (38%) name Warren as their second choice than any other candidate, but 32% give no second option. About a third of Warren supporters name Sanders as their second choice.

Candidate support among 2016 Democratic primary voters

In 2016, Pew Research Center tracked the preferences of Democratic voters throughout the nomination contest. A relatively large share of Democrats (44%) changed their preferences for the nomination during that contest, while 29% consistently supported Hillary Clinton (naming her as first choice for the nomination in all three surveys conducted between December 2015 and April 2016) and 20% consistently backed Bernie Sanders.

Looking at those same voters today, 43% of Democratic voters who consistently supported Clinton for the nomination in 2016 now support Biden. None of the other Democratic candidates garner more than 13% of this group’s support for the nomination.

Among those who consistently supported Sanders in 2016, 44% favor him for the nomination today, while 25% support Warren.

And among the larger share of Democrats whose preferences were less consistent in late 2015 and early 2016, a third now support Biden, while 17% favor Warren and 13% back Sanders.

Democrats’ enthusiasm for their first choice and the field

Overall, 54% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who express a preference for a 2020 candidate say there are several candidates running for the nomination they feel enthusiastic about; a somewhat smaller share (43%) say they are only enthusiastic about their first choice.

As the Democratic primary contest has progressed, the share who say they are only enthusiastic about their first choice has increased eight points, from 35% in August 2019.

Views on this question vary by candidate preference. Two-thirds of Warren supporters (66%) say there are several candidates they feel enthusiastic about, 58% of Buttigieg supporters also take this view. Enthusiasm for candidates outside their first choice is somewhat lower among those who say their top choice is Biden (51%), Sanders (48%) or Bloomberg (39%).

Large shares of Democratic voters prefer an active role for government and believe in the importance of its regulatory role. About eight-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say the government should do more to solve problems, while just 20% say it’s doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. Similarly, 78% say the government regulation is necessary to protect the public interest, compared with far fewer (20%) who say it usually does more harm than good.

These views are held by large majorities of the supporters of most top Democratic presidential candidates. The shares of Bloomberg supporters who believe in an active role for government and the need for regulation are modestly smaller than among other candidates’ supporters. For instance, 67% of Bloomberg supporters say government should do more to solve problems, compared with 77% of Biden supporters and 86% of both Warren and Sanders supporters who say this.

Views among the supporters of all top Democratic candidates stand in stark contrast to views among Republicans: 76% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals and 66% say government regulation of business usually does more harm than good.

Supporters of Democratic candidates differ in support for providing more aid to the needy

A majority of Democratic voters (61%) say the government should provide more assistance to people in need. Three-in-ten say the government is providing about the right amount of assistance to people in need, while just 9% say it should provide less assistance.

Warren and Sanders supporters stand out for their strong support for greater assistance to people in need. About three-quarters of Democratic voters who name Warren (76%) or Sanders (74%) as their first choice believe the government should provide more assistance to people in need. By contrast, smaller shares of Biden (56%), Buttigieg (48%) and Bloomberg (46%) supporters take this view. Backers of these three candidates are more likely than Warren and Sanders supporters to say the government is providing about the right amount of assistance to people in need. Few supporters of any Democratic candidate think government assistance to people in need should be cut.

As with many questions about the role of government, the gap between the views of Republican voters and Democratic voters is quite large. Half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters think government should provide less assistance to people in need, while 36% say it’s providing the right amount and only 13% say it should provide more.

On balance, more Democratic voters say that hard work is no guarantee of success for most people (55%) than say that most people who want to get ahead can make it if they’re willing to work hard (45%).

This question highlights significant differences in views between the supporters of top Democratic candidates

A narrow majority of Biden supporters (54%) say most people can make it if they’re willing to work hard (46% say hard work is no guarantee of success for most people). Views among Bloomberg supporters are similar to those of Biden supporters.

Sanders and Warren backers are decidedly of the view that hard work is no guarantee of success for most people. About seven-in-ten Warren supporters (71%) say this, as do 64% of those who support Sanders.

Republicans overwhelmingly say hard work itself leads to success: 82% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that most people who want to get ahead can make it if they’re willing to work hard; just 18% say hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people.

Views of college tuition and health insurance coverage

Democratic voters back the idea of making tuition at public colleges and universities free (81% are in favor), but there are differences in the degree of support by candidate preference.

Fully 92% of Sanders voters say they favor making tuition free, including 67% who say they strongly favor the policy. A large share of Warren voters also support free tuition at public colleges and universities (88%); Warren supporters are somewhat less likely than Sanders’ to back this policy strongly (54% vs. 67%).

Sizable but smaller majorities of Biden (76%), Buttigieg (69%) and Bloomberg (68%) supporters favor making tuition at public colleges and universities free for all Americans. Strong support is below 50% for all three groups of supporters.

About three-in-ten Bloomberg (32%) and Buttigieg (31%) supporters oppose free college tuition, as do 23% of Biden supporters. However, these shares pale in comparison to the share of Republican voters who oppose the policy (70%).

When it comes to health insurance policy, most Democratic voters say they would support a single-payer approach where a government health insurance program would replace private insurance. Support among Democrats is even higher for the government providing a public option that people could choose instead of private insurance plans.

Overall, 86% of Democratic voters support the government offering a health insurance plan, similar to Medicare, that Americans could choose to purchase instead of private insurance. A smaller but sizable majority of Democratic voters also say they support a single national health insurance program that would replace private insurance (74%).

Among Sanders voters, about equal shares say they favor the single-payer approach (87%) as the public option approach (86%). While overall levels of support are similar, Sanders supporters express more intense support for a single-payer program that would replace private health insurance plans: 60% say they favor this policy strongly, compared with 42% who strongly favor the government providing a public option, in addition to private plans.

Large shares of Warren voters express support for each of these two health care policy options: 94% favor the government offering a public option and 90% favor replacing private insurance with a government-run program. There is little difference in the intensity of support for these two policies among Warren voters.

Supporters of Biden, Buttigieg and Bloomberg are more likely to say they would support a government-run public option than a government-run program that would replace private insurance. For instance, 86% of Biden supporters favor the government offering a health insurance plan, similar to Medicare, that American could choose to purchase, compared with 64% who favor replacing private health insurance with a government-run program.

Republican voters are far less favorable toward both policies than Democrats. Overall, about half of Republican voters (53%) say they would favor a public option, while 47% say they would oppose this. Republicans broadly reject a “Medicare for all” approach that would replace private insurance completely; 78% oppose this plan, including 60% who strongly oppose it.

Democratic voters overwhelmingly view economic inequality as problem, diverge in views of impact of billionaires

Nearly all Democratic voters (95%) say economic inequality is at least a moderately big problem for the country today, including 68% who say it is a very big problem. Among all Democrats and Democratic leaners, economic inequality only ranks behind issues like the affordability of health care and climate change at the top of their list of national concerns.

Warren (80%) and Sanders (77%) supporters are especially likely to call economic inequality a very big problem compared with backers of other leading Democrats. Nonetheless, among all groups of Democratic supporters, more than nine-in-ten say economic inequality is at least a moderately big problem, including more than half who call it a very big problem.

This issue has one of the largest divides in terms of the priority placed on it by Republicans and Democrats: Half of Republican voters say economic inequality is at least a moderately big problem (only 16% say it is a very big problem). Overall, 49% of Republican voters say economic inequality is only a small problem, or not a problem at all.

While most supporters of leading Democratic candidates view economic inequality as a big national problem, there is disagreement over the impact of billionaires on the country.

A narrow majority of all Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (56%) say the fact that there are some people in the country who have personal fortunes of a billion dollars or more is neither a good thing nor a bad thing for the country. A third call this a bad thing, while just 10% say it is a good thing.

By 55% to 40%, more Sanders supporters view billionaires as a bad thing for the country than say it is neither good or bad. Warren supporters are roughly split between saying billionaires are a bad thing for the country (49%) and saying that they are neither good nor bad (45%).

Supporters of other Democratic candidates take a less negative view of the fact that there are people in the country with personal fortunes of a billion dollars or more. For instance, 69% of Bloomberg supporters and 67% of Biden supporters say this is neither a good or bad for the country.

A majority of Republican voters (63%) say it’s neither good nor bad that there are billionaires in the U.S. Just 7% say billionaires are a bad thing for the country; a greater share (30%) says they are a good thing.

Democratic voters express concerns about the power and influence of major corporations in the country today, regardless of primary candidate preference. Large majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say major corporations in this country have too much power (85%). Much smaller shares say they have about the right amount of power (11%) or too little power (3%).

There is some bipartisan agreement on this issue: 61% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say major corporations have too much power, though the share of Republicans who say they have about the right amount of power (35%) is still higher than the share of any Democratic candidate’s supporters who say this.

Most Democratic voters say gun laws in this country should be stricter

An overwhelming share of Democratic voters say that gun laws in this country should be more strict than they are today (89%). Almost no Democrats say they should be less strict (2%); just 9% say they’re about right.

Large majorities of Warren (97%), Buttigieg (95%), Biden (93%) and Sanders (90%) supporters think gun laws in the country should be more strict. By contrast, 52% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that gun laws in this country are about right, while 27% say they should be more strict and 21% say they should be less strict.

Modest differences in how candidates’ backers view race, immigration

Large majorities of Democrats – regardless of which primary candidate they support – say white people benefit at least a fair amount from advantages in society that black people do not have, but there are differences in the degree to which this view is held.

For instance, about six-in-ten Warren (63%) and Sanders (60%) backers say white people benefit “a great deal” from societal advantages black people do not have, compared with half of Biden supporters (50%), 41% of Buttigieg supporters and just 29% of Bloomberg backers.

To some extent, these differences reflect the racial composition of each candidate’s supporters, since black Democrats are more likely than white Democrats to say white people benefit a great deal from societal advantages that black people do not have. But differences on this question across candidates’ supporters remain evident when controlling for race: White Sanders and Warren supporters are more likely than those who back Biden or Buttigieg – and much more likely than those who back Bloomberg – to say that whites benefit a great deal from advantages in society that black people do not have.

A broad majority of Democratic voters take a positive view of the impact of people from other countries on the U.S. Overall, 81% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters say the growing number of newcomers from other countries strengthens American society; just 18% say newcomers threaten traditional American customs and values.

These views vary little across the different candidates’ supporters. Backers of Biden and Bloomberg are slightly less likely than other Democratic voters to take the view that newcomers strengthen American society; still, eight-in-ten of their supporters say this.

The views of Republican registered voters stand in stark contrast: 71% say the growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens traditional American customs and values.

Democratic voters do not view illegal immigration as among the top problems facing the country: 51% say it is a moderately big or very big problem; about as many (49%) say it is a small problem or not a problem. Democrats are much more likely to call issues like health care affordability and climate change big problems. By contrast, illegal immigration ranks at the top of Republican voters’ concern list: 94% say it’s at least a moderately big problem, including 74% who call it a very big problem.

Majorities of Democrats who support Bloomberg (61%) and Biden (59%) call illegal immigration at least a moderately big problem in the country. Supporters of other Democratic candidates place less emphasis on the issue. For instance, just 36% of both Sanders and Warren supporters say illegal immigration is a moderately big or very big problem for the country.

Near unity among Democratic voters in views of climate change

Concern over the issue of climate change is a view that unites supporters of top 2020 Democratic primary candidates. At least nine-in-ten of those who support leading Democratic candidates say climate change is a moderately big or very big problem for the country; three-quarters or more call it a very big problem. To the extent that differences exist across Democratic supporters, the differences are a matter of degree: 75% of Biden and Bloomberg supporters say climate change is a very big problem, compared with slightly larger majorities among supporters of other Democratic candidates.

The issue of climate change – like the issue of illegal immigration – highlights the wide gulf in partisan priorities. Just 41% of Republican voters say climate change is at least a moderately big problem for the country, including just 13% who say it is a very big problem.

Views on environmental laws also underscore the alignment of Democrats, in general terms, on the issues of climate change and the environment. Overall, 88% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters say stricter environmental laws are worth the cost, compared with just 11% who say they cost too many jobs and hurt the economy. Views among Democrats differ little on this question by primary candidate preference. By contrast, a majority (61%) of Republican registered voters say stricter environmental laws cost too many jobs and hurt the economy.

Views on gender, same-sex marriage and religion

Large majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters hold the view that “significant obstacles still make it harder for women to get ahead than men,” regardless of which primary candidate they support. For instance, 79% of Biden supporters and 81% of Sanders supporters believe significant obstacles continue to stand in the way of women’s advancement. But Warren supporters (89%) are especially likely to take this view.

Views on the obstacles men and women face in the country today remain a dividing line between Republicans and Democrats.

On the issue of same-sex marriage, most Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (82%) say the legalization of same-sex marriage in the U.S. has been either a somewhat or very good thing for our society. While majorities of supporters of all Democratic primary candidates are more likely to say legalization of same-sex marriage has been good than bad for society, the intensity and universality of support for this change varies by primary candidate preference.

About three-quarters of Bloomberg (76%) supporters say the legalization of same-sex marriage has been a good thing for society, including 47% who say it has been a very good thing. Views among Biden supporters are similar.

By contrast, positive views of this societal change are more strongly and widely held  among Democrats who support Warren, Buttigieg or Sanders: At least nine-in-ten say the legalization of same-sex marriage has been a good thing, including at least seven-in-ten who say it’s been a very good thing.

As with views on obstacles to women’s advancement, Republicans and Democrats are far apart in their views on the impact of legalizing same-sex marriage. Most Republican and Republican-leaning voters (61%) say legalizing same-sex marriage has been bad for U.S. society, including 36% who say the impact has been very bad.

Most Democrats – regardless of candidate preference – say that is it not necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values.

This view is less widely held among Biden supporters (63%) than among backers of Buttigieg (96%), Warren (93%) and Sanders (85%). To some extent, this reflects Biden’s greater level of support among black Democrats, who are more likely than white Democrats to say belief in God is necessary for morality; however, a gap is still seen between white backers of Biden (81% of whom say it is not necessary to believe in God to be moral and have good values) and white backers of Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg (95% or more of whom say belief in God is not necessary to believe in God to be a moral person).

Republicans are divided on this question: 52% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say it’s not necessary to believe in God to be a moral person; about as many (47%) say this is necessary.

Democrats are united in support of cooperation with U.S. allies, differ on importance of U.S. military superiority

Democratic registered voters overwhelmingly agree that the United States should address the interests of its allies when conducting foreign policy. This view varies little among supporters of Democratic presidential candidates.

Fully 87% of Democratic voters say the U.S. should take into the account the interests of its allies when making foreign policy decisions, even if it means making compromises with them. Few (13%) say the U.S. should follow its own national interests, even when its allies strongly disagree.

Republican and Republican-leaning voters are divided over whether the United States should follow its own national interests, even when allies disagree (51%) or address the interests of allies, even if this means compromises (48%).

There is far less agreement among Democrats in views of whether U.S. policy should work to maintain its global military superiority. Among Democratic voters who name Warren as their first choice for the nomination, 65% say that in the future it would be acceptable if another country became as militarily powerful as the U.S.; just 31% say U.S. policies should try to maintain its position as the world’s only military superpower.

Majorities of those who support Sanders (59%) and Buttigieg (56%) also say it would be acceptable if another country became as militarily powerful as the U.S.

By contrast, identical shares of Biden and Bloomberg supporters (58% each) say U.S. policies should try to ensure that this country remains the only military superpower.

Republican voters, by a margin of about 4-to-1 (78% to 19%), say U.S. policies should try to keep it that America is the only military superpower.

Supporters of Democratic candidates are deeply divided on U.S. global standing

Democratic voters differ substantially in opinions about how the United States compares with other countries around the world.

Warren and Sanders supporters are more than twice as likely as those who support Biden and Buttigieg to say that there are other countries that are better than the U.S.

Among Sanders supporters, 51% say there are other countries that are better than the U.S., compared with 41% who say the U.S. is one of the greatest countries along with some others; 7% say the U.S. “stands above” every other country. About four-in-ten Warren supporters (43%) say there are other countries that are better than the U.S., while 53% say the U.S. is among the world’s greatest countries, and 4% say the U.S. stands above all others.

By contrast, majorities of Biden (72%) and Buttigieg (75%) supporters say the U.S. is one of the world’s greatest countries; just 17% of each group of supporters say there are other countries that are better than the U.S.

Positive views of free trade agreements cross party lines

For the most part, Democratic voters express positive views of the personal impact of free trade agreements. Majorities of the supporters of Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg say free trade agreements have been a good thing for “people like them.”

Still, roughly three-in-ten Biden (31%) and Sanders supporters (27%) say free trade agreements have been bad for them. That’s higher than the shares of Warren (17%) and Buttigieg supporters (14%) who say this.

Notably, attitudes toward free trade agreements do not differ across partisan lines. Overall, similar shares of Democratic and Republican voters say their impact has been positive (69% and 72%, respectively).

The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.

Data in this report are drawn from the panel wave conducted January 6 to January 19, 2020. A total of 12,638 panelists responded out of 15,463 who were sampled, for a response rate of 82%. This does not include nine panelists who were removed from the data due to extremely high rates of refusal or straightlining. The cumulative response rate accounting for nonresponse to the recruitment surveys and attrition is 5.3%. The break-off rate among panelists who logged onto the survey and completed at least one item is 1%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 12,638 respondents is plus or minus 1.3 percentage points.

Some analysis in this report relies on survey data drawn from a panel wave conducted September 3 to September 15, 2019. Responses captured in the September survey were combined with responses from the current wave.

The ATP was created in 2014, with the first cohort of panelists invited to join the panel at the end of a large, national, landline and cellphone random-digit-dial survey that was conducted in both English and Spanish. Two additional recruitments were conducted using the same method in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Across these three surveys, a total of 19,718 adults were invited to join the ATP, of which 9,942 agreed to participate.

In August 2018, the ATP switched from telephone to address-based recruitment. Invitations were sent to a random, address-based sample (ABS) of households selected from the U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File. In each household, the adult with the next birthday was asked to go online to complete a survey, at the end of which they were invited to join the panel. For a random half-sample of invitations, households without internet access were instructed to return a postcard. These households were contacted by telephone and sent a tablet if they agreed to participate. A total of 9,396 were invited to join the panel, and 8,778 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. The same recruitment procedure was carried out on August 19, 2019, from which a total of 5,900 were invited to join the panel and 4,720 agreed to join the panel and completed an initial profile survey. Of the 23,440 individuals who have ever joined the ATP, 15,463 remained active panelists and continued to receive survey invitations at the time this survey was conducted.

The U.S. Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File has been estimated to cover as much as 98% of the population, although some studies suggest that the coverage could be in the low 90% range.¹

Weighting

The ATP data were weighted in a multistep process that begins with a base weight incorporating the respondents’ original selection probability. The next step in the weighting uses an iterative technique that aligns the sample to population benchmarks on the dimensions listed in the accompanying table.

Sampling errors and test of statistical significance take into account the effect of weighting. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

For the analysis focused on respondents who participated in both the September 2019 and January 2020 surveys, a set of weights was created using the same procedure to ensure that the profile of the combined sample was consistent with the demographic and political distribution in the full sample.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

© Pew Research Center, 2020