At the second anniversary of his inauguration, public views of Donald Trump’s job performance, as well as his honesty and administration’s ethics, are decidedly negative. Yet opinions about the nation’s economy continue to be positive – and Trump’s handling of the economy remains a relative strength.

Trump begins his third year with a 37% job approval rating; 59% disapprove of his job performance. Of five previous presidents, only Ronald Reagan had as low a job approval mark at this point in his presidency. (Reagan’s disapproval – 54% – was lower than Trump’s.)

The new Pew Research Center survey, conducted Jan. 9-14 among 1,505 adults, finds that a growing share of Americans say they trust what Trump says less than what previous presidents said while they were in office. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) say they trust what Trump says less than previous presidents, up from 54% last June and 51% in February 2017, shortly after he took office.

The public also continues to fault the ethical standards of top administration officials. Just 39% rate their ethical standards as excellent or good, while 59% say they are not good or poor. While these opinions are little changed from last year, they are lower than evaluations of ethics of top officials for presidents dating back to Reagan.

However, more Americans say Trump’s economic policies have made conditions better (40%) than worse (28%), while 29% say they have not had much of an effect. In January 2011, a comparable point in Barack Obama’s presidency, the public expressed mixed views of the impact of his economic policies, with about as many saying his policies made things worse (31%) as better (28%).

And Trump engenders more confidence for his ability to make good decisions on trade and the economy than in other areas, especially working with Congress. About half say they are very or somewhat confident in Trump’s ability to negotiate favorable trade deals (51%) and make good decisions about economic policy (49%).

By contrast, 40% have confidence in Trump on immigration policy and 35% are confident he can work effectively with Congress. (For more on views of Trump’s handling of the government shutdown, see “Most Border Wall Opponents, Supporters Say Shutdown Concessions Are Unacceptable.”)

Trump’s presidency has been characterized by a favorable economic climate and that remains the case today. Currently, 51% say economic conditions are either excellent or good – among the highest ratings in nearly two decades.

The surge in positive economic views has been driven by Republicans. Three-quarters of Republicans rate the economy as excellent or good, up from just 14% in December 2016, at the end of Obama’s presidency. By contrast, just 32% of Democrats offer positive ratings; Democrats are now less likely to rate the economy as either excellent or good than they were in December of 2016 (46%).

The public’s perceptions of the availability of jobs have undergone a similar transformation. For the first time in Pew Research Center surveys dating to 2001, a clear majority of Americans (60%) say there are plenty of jobs in their communities. And while these perceptions also are divided along partisan lines, majorities of Republicans (71%) and Democrats (53%) say there are plenty of jobs available locally.

Yet favorable opinions about the economy and jobs have not been accompanied by a rise in public satisfaction with national conditions. For longer than a decade, no more than about a third of Americans have expressed with the way things are going in the country. Today, that figure stands at just 26%, down from 33% in September, with the decline coming among members of both parties.

Among the survey’s other major findings:

Low expectations for Trump’s legacy. About half (47%) think Trump will be an unsuccessful president in the long run, compared with fewer (29%) who think he will be a successful president; 23% say it’s too early to tell. Ratings for Trump are more negative, on balance, than for Obama and George W. Bush at comparable points in their administrations; in February 1995, more said Bill Clinton would be unsuccessful (34%) than successful (18%). Compared with his three most recent predecessors, far fewer say it is “too early to tell” whether Trump will be successful or unsuccessful.

Most Democrats want party leaders to “stand up” to Trump. As was the case a year ago, a majority of Democrats (70%) want their party’s leaders to “stand up” to Trump this year, even if it means less gets done in Washington; just 26% want them to try as best they can to work with Trump, even if it means disappointing some groups of Democratic supporters. A year ago, 63% of Democrats wanted their party’s leaders to stand up to the president. Among Republicans, the share saying Trump should stand up to Democrats has increased from 40% a year ago to 51% currently.

Majority continues to say Trump has responsibility to release tax returns. As in the past, a majority (64%) says Trump has a responsibility to publicly release his tax returns; just 32% say he does not have a responsibility to do this. Nearly all Democrats (91%) – and 32% of Republicans – say Trump should release his tax returns.

Public confidence in Mueller investigation steady. A majority (55%) remains confident that special counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election. Confidence in Mueller has held steady over the course of the past year, and there remains more confidence in Mueller to conduct a fair investigation than in Trump to handle matters related to the inquiry appropriately.

The public’s confidence in Trump to handle a number of key issues remains mixed. Trump fares best on issues related to economic conditions, where about half of Americans say they are at least somewhat confident in his ability. By contrast, only about a third express confidence in his ability to work effectively with Congress.

Overall, 62% say they are not too or not at all confident in Trump’s ability to work effectively with Congress; far fewer (35%) say they are very or somewhat confident in him to do this.

When it comes to making wise decisions about immigration policy, four-in-ten say they are at least somewhat confident in Trump (including 29% who say they are very confident). Nearly six-in-ten (58%) express little or no confidence in Trump on immigration policy, including 45% who say they are not at all confident in him on this issue.

Narrow majorities also say they have little or no confidence in Trump to use military force wisely, handle an international crisis or manage the executive branch effectively. About half (51%) say they are not too or not at all confident that Trump can make good appointments to the federal courts, while 45% say they are at least somewhat confident in him in this area.

Trump garners the most confidence in his ability to negotiate favorable trade agreements with other countries (51% say they are at least somewhat confident) and to make good decisions about economic policy (49%). Still, close to half the public says they lack confidence in Trump to handle these two issue areas.

Nearly nine-in-ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (89%) are confident in Trump’s ability to negotiate favorable trade agreements with other countries, compared with just 19% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.

The pattern is similar on most other issues. For instance, 89% of Republicans – and only 17% of Democrats – are very or somewhat confident in Trump to make good decisions about economic policy.

Trump gets his lowest ratings from Republicans on his ability to work effectively with Congress: Seven-in-ten say they are at least somewhat confident in his ability to do this, but just 31% say they are very confident. Across all other issues, at least 50% of Republicans say they are very confident in Trump.

Broad concern over possible influence of Trump’s business interests

Only about three-in-ten Americans (28%) are very confident that Trump keeps his own business interests separate from the decisions he makes as president, and another 13% say they are somewhat confident in this. A majority are either not too (16%) or not at all (41%) confident that Trump is keeping his own personal interests separate from his presidential decisions.

Most Republicans say they are very (55%) or somewhat (23%) confident that Trump keeps his business interests separate from his decision-making as president. Conservative Republicans are much more likely to say they are very confident in this (66%) than are moderate and liberal Republicans (39%).

Democrats are deeply skeptical that Trump is avoiding potential conflicts of interest. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) say that they are not at all confident that Trump keeps his business interests and his presidential decisions separate, while another 20% say they are not too confident in this. Liberal Democrats are particularly skeptical: Fully 83% say they are not at all confident in Trump to keep his business interests separate.

Most say Trump should release tax returns

In surveys over the past two years, a majority of Americans have said that Trump has a responsibility to release his tax returns. Currently, 64% say he has this responsibility, slightly higher than the share who said this last year. About a third of the public (32%) says he does not have this responsibility.

Fully 91% of Democrats and Democratic leaners say that Trump has a responsibility to publicly release his tax returns, up from about eight-in-ten who said this in both January 2018 (80%) and January 2017 (79%).

By contrast, most Republicans continue to say that Trump does not have a responsibility to release his tax returns: Just 32% say he has this responsibility, while 64% say he does not.

Trump’s statements less trusted than those of previous presidents

A majority of the public (58%) says they trust what Trump says less than they trusted what previous presidents said while in office. Just 26% say they trust Trump more than previous presidents, while 14% say their level of trust in Trump’s rhetoric is about the same as for past presidents.

Distrust in Trump compared with other presidents has increased since April of 2017, when a somewhat smaller share (51%) said they trusted what Trump says less than previous presidents.

Almost all Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (94%) say they trust what Trump says less than they trusted what previous presidents said while in office.

Among Republicans and Republican leaners, most (58%) say they trust what Trump says more than previous presidents, while 25% say they trust what he says about the same as previous presidents; 15% say they trust his rhetoric less.

Low marks for ethical standards of top administration officials

Views of the ethical standards of top Trump administration officials remain at record lows compared with previous administrations dating back to the 1980s.

Overall, 39% rate the ethical standards of top Trump administration officials as either excellent (7%) or good (32%). A much greater share describes them as either not good (20%) or poor (39%). These ratings are about the same as they were in May 2018.

Views of Trump administration officials are lower than those of officials in the previous five administrations, often measured at times of specific ethical controversies.

Partisans remain deeply divided on this question, with 76% of Republicans and Republican leaners saying that ethical standards of top administration officials are excellent or good (although only 16% say they are “excellent”), and 90% of Democrats and Democratic leaners saying that ethical standards of top Trump administration officials are not good or poor (with 67% saying they are “poor”).

Trump’s impact on economy seen as positive, on balance

While the public is critical of Trump and his administration in multiple areas, they see Trump’s impact on the economy in a positive light. Overall, 40% think that Trump’s policies have made economic conditions better since taking office, compared with fewer (28%) who say they have made conditions worse; 29% say they have not had much of an effect.

Since October 2017, the share saying Trump’s economic policies have not had much of an effect has declined 20 points. There have been comparable increases in the shares who say his policies have made things better (+11 points) and worse (+10 points).

Partisan views of Trump’s economic policies have become more polarized since the fall of 2017. Nearly eight-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners (79%) say that his economic policies had improved conditions in the country (up from 63% in October 2017). Democrats and Democratic leaners, by contrast, have grown more negative in their views of Trump’s economic policies. Almost half (46%) of Democrats now say his policies have made the economy worse, up from 28% in October 2017.

How will Trump’s presidency be viewed in the long run?

When asked if they think Donald Trump will be a successful or unsuccessful president in the long run, 47% say he will be unsuccessful, while about three-in-ten (29%) say he will be successful; 23% say it is too early to tell whether Trump will be successful or unsuccessful. Since last year, the share saying Trump will be successful and the share saying he will be unsuccessful have both increased by 6 percentage points.

The share who say it is too early to tell if Trump will be successful is much lower than at comparable points for previous presidents. At the start of Barack Obama’s third year in office, nearly half of the public (47%) said it was too early to tell whether he would be successful; 38% said this about George W. Bush and 43% about Clinton at comparable points.

The nearly half of Americans (47%) who now say Trump will be unsuccessful is far higher than the share who said this about his three most recent predecessors at comparable points in their first term.

About two-thirds of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (65%) say Trump will be a successful president in the long run.

An even larger share of Democrats and Democratic leaners (80%) think that Trump will be an unsuccessful president.

Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to say it is too early to tell whether Trump will be successful (25% vs. 16%).

In January 2011, about half of Republicans (47%) said Obama would be unsuccessful, while nearly as many (45%) said it was too early to tell. Among Democrats, 43% said Obama would be successful and 47% said it was too early to tell.

Republicans’ views of Trump’s long-term outlook are similar to how they viewed Bush in his third year. In December 2003, 69% of Republicans thought Bush would be successful; just 28% said it was too early to tell. Democrats’ views of Bush were not as fully established: 37% thought he would be unsuccessful, while 43% said it was too early to tell.

Views of Mueller investigation

Overall, 55% of the public says they are very or somewhat confident that Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election. A smaller share (41%) says they are not too or not at all confident in Mueller.

There is less public confidence in Trump to appropriately handle matters related to the special counsel’s investigation. Just 37% are very or somewhat confident in Trump to handle matters related to the investigation appropriately, compared with 60% who say they are not too or not at all confident in Trump to do this.

Views of the Mueller investigation – and Trump’s handling of the matter – remain deeply partisan.

About seven-in-ten Democrats and Democratic leaners (72%) are at least somewhat confident in the fairness of Mueller’s investigation. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, a larger share says they are not too or not at all confident in Mueller (58%) than says they are very or somewhat confident in him (39%).

When it comes to Trump’s handling of matters related to the investigation, fully 92% of Democrats express a lack of confidence in Trump, including 70% who say they are not at all confident in him. Three-quarters of Republicans say they are confident in Trump to handle the inquiry appropriately, including 42% who say they are very confident.

Confidence in the Mueller investigation has not changed much over the course of the past year. In January and September of 2018, an identical 55% said they were at least somewhat confident that Mueller was conducting a fair investigation in to Russian involvement in the 2016 election.

Overall, Americans’ views of the current state of the national economy are little changed since a year ago. About half of adults (51%) rate national economic conditions as excellent (11%) or good (39%), while 49% characterize economic conditions as only fair (35%) or poor (14%).

Positive views of economic conditions are buoyed by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: 75% rate economic conditions as excellent or good. These ratings are little changed over the past year; Republican views of the economy have been much more positive since Trump’s election.

Republicans also remain more optimistic than Democrats in expectations for the economy a year from now: 46% expect economic conditions will be better a year from now, while just 12% of Democrats say this.

However, GOP optimism has declined since September, when 57% of Republicans said they expected conditions would be better; still, just 6% of Republicans expect conditions will worsen (45% say they will stay about the same). Views among Democrats are little changed since September: 12% expect economic conditions to improve in the next year, 41% say they will get worse, while 45% expect things to stay about the same.

Overall, there has been little recent change in Americans’ views of their personal financial situation. Today, about half (51%) say their personal financial situation is in excellent or good shape, while about as many say they are in only fair or poor shape (48%).

As was the case in September, there is a sizable partisan gap in these views. Republicans continue to be more likely than Democrats (62% vs. 44%) to rate their personal financial situation as excellent or good.

Republicans also remain more likely than Democrats (84% to 60%) to say they expect their finances to improve over the next year.

Majority now says ‘there are plenty of jobs available’

Six-in-ten adults now say there are plenty of jobs available in their local community – the highest share recorded since the question was first asked in 2001. Just a third say that jobs are difficult to find.

Positive views of the availability of jobs locally has risen since the question was last asked in October 2017, generally tracking with more positive views of the economy over this period. Then, half of adults said there were plenty of jobs available where they live, while 42% said jobs were difficult to find.

As is the case with other economic measures, there is a sizable partisan gap in views of job availability. Currently, 71% of Republicans say there are plenty of jobs available, compared with 53% of Democrats. In October 2017, 58% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats viewed jobs as widely available locally.

In both parties, views of local job opportunities are among the most positive as at any point in the last two decades.

Though a majority of adults say there are plenty of jobs available in their communities, a separate question finds that “good jobs” are seen as less widely available

About half (48%) say there are plenty of good jobs available in their communities, compared with 45% who say that good jobs are difficult to find. The trajectory of opinion on this question is also positive. In June 2016, just 31% said there were plenty of good jobs available.

Most Americans say incomes are at least keeping pace with cost of living

A majority of Americans (54%) say either that their family’s income is going up faster than the cost of living (11%) or staying about even (43%). About four-in-ten (44%) say their incomes are falling behind the cost of living.

These evaluations are somewhat more positive than in recent years. In October 2017, 49% said their incomes were at least keeping pace with the cost of living.

There are substantial demographic differences in these evaluations. For instance, 58% of blacks say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living – much higher than the percentages of whites (42%) or Hispanics (46%) who say this.

Overall, 69% of adults with family incomes below $30,000 say they are falling behind the cost of living; that compares with just 26% of those with incomes of at least $75,000.

Views of Wall Street’s impact on the economy

Nearly half of Americans (46%) say that Wall Street helps the U.S. economy more than it hurts, while 39% say Wall Street hurts the economy more than it helps. Views about Wall Street’s impact on the economy are little changed since 2014. In 2011 and 2012, more said that Wall Street hurt than helped the nation’s economy.

As in the past, these views are divided along partisan lines. More Republicans say that on balance, Wall Street helps the economy more than it hurts it (55% vs. 31%).

Democrats are more divided on Wall Street’s impact: About as many say Wall Street does more to hurt the economy (46%) as say it does more to help (41%).

Views of national conditions turn more negative

Seven-in-ten Americans now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country, while only about (26%) say that they are satisfied.

Public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation is higher than at any point in the past year, and it has increased 9 percentage points since September (when 61% of adults said they were dissatisfied).

Today, as many Republicans and Republican leaners say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country as say they are satisfied (47% each). This is a 12-percentage-point drop in satisfaction from September (when 59% of Republicans said they were satisfied and 35% were dissatisfied), and the lowest GOP satisfaction rating since late 2017.

Just 8% of Democrats now say they are satisfied with the state of the nation, while 90% express dissatisfaction. While satisfaction among Democrats has dropped modestly since September (from 14%), no more than 16% of Democrats have expressed satisfaction with the way things are going in the country at any point during Trump’s presidency.

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted January 9-14, 2019 among a national sample of 1,505 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (388 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,117 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 724 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers under the direction of SSRS. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Marketing Systems Group. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. Within the cell phone RDD frame, two strata were defined: numbers flagged as a pre-paid phone and numbers not flagged as such. Numbers servicing a pre-paid phone were sampled at a somewhat higher rate than other numbers. The weighting procedure corrected for the different sampling rates. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see https://alpha.pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample is weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the 2016 Census Bureau’s American Community Survey one-year estimates and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status (landline only, cell phone only, or both landline and cell phone), based on extrapolations from the 2016 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. To account for the oversample of pre-paid cell phone sample, an adjustment was made to the data before the sample was balanced to population parameters. The sample was adjusted so that the proportion of prepaid numbers in the entire sample matched the proportion of prepaid numbers in the base sample. The margins of error reported and statistical tests of significance are adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, a measure of how much efficiency is lost from the weighting procedures.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Pew Research Center undertakes all polling activity, including calls to mobile telephone numbers, in compliance with the Telephone Consumer Protection Act and other applicable laws.

Pew Research Center is a nonprofit, tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization and a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder.