Survey Report

In looking ahead to this fall’s elections, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to view a candidate’s position on the Affordable Care Act as very important to their vote. A new national survey finds that 64% of Republican registered voters say a candidate’s stance on the health care law will be very important in their voting decision, compared with 52% of Democrats and 45% of independents.

The new national survey by the Pew Research Center and USA TODAY, conducted April 3-6 among 1,010 adults, finds more continue to disapprove (50%) than approve (37%) of the 2010 health care law. Last month, the balance of opinion was similar – 53% disapproved of the law, while 41% approved.

Six-in-ten (60%) voters who oppose the health care law say that a candidate’s stance on the health care law will be very important to their vote, compared with about half (48%) of voters who support the law.

Opinion about the 2010 health care law, as well as its views of its current and future impact, remains deeply divided along partisan lines. By roughly eight-to-one (83% to 10%), Republicans disapprove of the law while Democrats, by a less lopsided margin (73% to 16%) approve of it. Only about a third of independents (34%) approve of the law while 54% disapprove. Opinions across partisan groups are little changed from last month.

Views of Health Care Law’s Impact

A majority of Americans (57%) say the health care law has not had much of an effect on themselves and their families, though somewhat fewer say that today than did so last September (63%). About a quarter (24%) say the law’s impact has been mostly negative while 17% say it has been mostly positive.

On balance, more also say the law has had a negative than positive impact on the country (43% vs. 30%). But negative views of the law’s impact on the country have declined (from 49%) – and positive views have risen (from 23%) – since December.

The public’s assessments of the law’s future impact also remain more negative than positive. Currently, 35% say in coming years the law will have a mostly negative effect on them and their families, 29% expect the effect will be mostly positive, while 30% say the law will not have much of an effect.

Slightly more expect the impact on the country will be negative than positive (44% vs. 38%); relatively few Americans (12%) say the law will not have much of an impact on the country.

Comparable percentages of Democrats (58%) independents (58%) and Republicans (52%) say the law has not yet had much of an effect on them or their families. But most Republicans (61%) expect the law will have a mostly negative personal impact; by contrast, 55% of Democrats think the law’s impact will be mostly positive. Independents have mixed expectations about the law’s effects – 34% say it will be mostly negative, 28% say mostly positive and 31% think it won’t have much of an effect.

Majorities of Republicans say in coming years the law will have a mostly negative effect on them and their families (61%) and the country (73%). Democrats express the opposite viewpoints – 55% see the law’s future personal impact positively and 70% say it will have a positive effect on the country.

While independents are divided over the law’s potential personal impact, more say it will have a mostly negative (46%) than a mostly positive (34%) effect on the country.

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-6, 2014 among a national sample of 1,010 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in the continental Untied States (510 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 500 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 280 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source and MKTG under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics/methodology/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the 2012 Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2013 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.