Survey Report

The public is reacting skeptically to last month’s multilateral agreement aimed at freezing parts of Iran’s nuclear program. Overall, more disapprove than approve of the deal, and there continues to be broad skepticism about whether Iranian leaders are serious about addressing international concerns over the country’s nuclear program.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center and USA TODAY, conducted Dec. 3-8 among 2,001 adults, finds that 43% disapprove of the agreement between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear program, 32% approve of the deal, while 25% do not offer an opinion.

The public’s doubts about the intentions of Iran’s leaders are as high as they were last month before the nuclear agreement. By roughly two-to-one (62% to 29%), those who have heard at least a little about the agreement say Iran’s leaders are not serious about addressing concerns over the country’s nuclear program.

There are substantial partisan differences in opinions about the nuclear agreement. Nearly six-in-ten Republicans (58%) disapprove of the accord, while just 14% approve. By contrast, Democrats approve of the agreement by about two-to-one (50% approve, 27% disapprove). Among independents, more disapprove (47%) than approve (29%).

The ideological wings of the parties hold sharply divergent views of the deal. Conservative Republicans disapprove of the agreement by a 64%-13% margin, while liberal Democrats approve of it by 60%-19%. Among Republican and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party movement, nearly three-quarters (72%) disapprove of the agreement while only 13% approve of it.

Across most demographic groups, more disapprove than approve of the Iran nuclear agreement. However, looking at education, 48% of those with post-graduate degrees approve of the deal while 37% disapprove. College graduates are divided (41% approve, 38% disapprove), while those with less education on balance disapprove of the agreement.

The survey finds modest public awareness of the nuclear agreement, which was reached Nov. 23 in Geneva. About a quarter (24%) say they have heard a lot about the agreement, 48% say they have heard a little while 28% say they have heard nothing at all about it. The balance of opinion on the nuclear agreement is not much different among those who have heard a lot about it (44% approve, 51% disapprove) and those who have heard a little (36% approve, 45% disapprove). Among those who have heard nothing at all about the nuclear deal, 52% do not offer an opinion.

Continued Doubts about Iranian Leaders

The nuclear accord has done nothing to reduce skepticism that Iranian leaders are serious about addressing international concerns over the country’s nuclear program. Among those who have heard at least a little about the agreement, 62% say that Iranian leaders are not serious about addressing international concerns about their country’s nuclear enrichment program compared with just 29% who think they are serious.

Opinion on this question has shown almost no change since early November, when 60% of those who had heard about the ongoing nuclear talks said they did not think Iranian leaders were serious about addressing international concerns over their nuclear program; a third (33%) thought they were.

Even among Democrats, who approve of the nuclear agreement on balance, there is skepticism about Iranian leaders. Overall, 49% of Democrats who have heard of the agreement say they do not think Iran’s leaders are serious about addressing international concerns; 41% say they are. The balance of opinion is much more lopsided among independents (63% not serious, 29% serious) and Republicans (77% not serious, 14% serious) who have heard at least a little about the accord.

Not surprisingly, support for the nuclear deal is much higher among the share of the public that has heard about the agreement and thinks Iranian leaders are serious (65% approve, 22% disapprove). Among those who do not think Iranian leaders are serious about addressing concerns over their nuclear program, 63% disapprove of the nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran, 26% approve.

The analysis for this report is based on telephone interviews conducted December 3-8, 2013 among a national sample of 2,001 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (1,000 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,001 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 523 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://pewresearch.org/pewresearch-org/politics/methodology/

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the 2011 Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting.

The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.